Peltola defeats Palin

[Jayjay]

So... Palin needed about 6k votes, but Begich voters didn't put down Palin's name for over 8k votes. Reasons for such could be:

1) Not caring whether Palin or Peltola wins.
2) Thinking Palin will win anyway.
3) No understanding how the vote works.

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

You forgot:

4) Despising Sarah Palin.

I think that's covered by 1-3. If someone despises Palin enough, he'd vote for a democrat to keep Palin out of the office.

A lot of Alaskans deeply resent her for abandoning her elected position to enrich herself as a celebrity talking head on Fox News. She was halfway through her term as Governor when she walked off the job. And even when she was here, she stayed home in Wasilla (probably because her husband refused to take care of the kids) and collected the per diem the State gives to employees who are working away from their regular duty station, which in her case was the Governor's mansion in Juneau.

She disappointed a lot of people, moved to Arizona years ago, and only showed a renewed interest in Alaska politics when she saw an opportunity to be elected to Congress.

 

[Jayjay]

Are there going to be more candidates in November or is it just a repeat of the same three + write-ins?

 

[lpetrich]

Yes, a repeat of those three.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

In the second round, Begich is the lowest finisher and is eliminated. Voters who picked him as their first choice have their votes instead go to their second choice. If a write-in was their second choice, their ballot goes to their third choice. And voters whose first choice was a write-in and whose second choice was Begich will also have their ballot go to their third choice.

So lpetrich's post should list Write-in/Dropped Out as Write-In/Dropped Out/No Vote.

This is interesting (depressing?). Looking at the stats, about 30% of Begich's voters selected Peltola, but more importantly, 16% of Begich's voters shifted to write-ins/dropped out/or no one.

So for Begich:
Palin: 52.7%
Peltola: 31.2%
Third Party or No One: 16.1%

Had Palin taken just over 60% of the No One vote, she'd have won. But 1 in 6 Begich voters couldn't stomach voting for Palin or a Democrat. It was relatively tight, but I don't see how Palin pulls out a win in November. Nearly half of Begich's voters wouldn't vote for her. The only way the Republicans win is if the Palin voters shift to Begich for first option. The GOP might have already retained their loss of the first seat in November.

Obviously Palin is an outlier. She abandoned Alaska after burning every bridge there was to burn in her "role" as Governor. They she tried to get rich by being a flamethrower, but while she was a big fish in Alaska... much smaller fish nationally as the GOP continued adapting to their new right-wing fascist political model. But this must be a bit of a worry for the GOP. The GOP is whining about the election being stolen by the counting method, but Peltola won the most votes via two methods of counting. Whining the GOP split the vote is stupid, but right-wing fascism gots to stupidz.

 

[Politesse]

Always nice to see more indigenous folks in office, especially in Alaska.

Dobbs is the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party electorally in decades.

To the Party, maybe. To the American people, not so much.

 

[Jayjay]

In the second round, Begich is the lowest finisher and is eliminated. Voters who picked him as their first choice have their votes instead go to their second choice. If a write-in was their second choice, their ballot goes to their third choice. And voters whose first choice was a write-in and whose second choice was Begich will also have their ballot go to their third choice.

So lpetrich's post should list Write-in/Dropped Out as Write-In/Dropped Out/No Vote.

This is interesting (depressing?). Looking at the stats, about 30% of Begich's voters selected Peltola, but more importantly, 16% of Begich's voters shifted to write-ins/dropped out/or no one.

I don't think it's depressing. It's the way it should work. Moderate republican Begich has got a shot, when in most other states he'd either have lost the primary by a large margin, or been a spoiler in general election and handed it over to a democrat.

EDIT: Lots of typos corrected.

 

[Politesse]

So... Palin needed about 6k votes, but Begich voters didn't put down Palin's name for over 8k votes. Reasons for such could be:

1) Not caring whether Palin or Peltola wins.
2) Thinking Palin will win anyway.
3) No understanding how the vote works.

If they wisen up and vote smarter in November, it's not inconceivable that Palin can get enough second votes to win.

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

You forgot:

4) Despising Sarah Palin.

A lot of Alaskans deeply resent her for abandoning her elected position to enrich herself as a celebrity talking head on Fox News. She was halfway through her term as Governor when she walked off the job. And even when she was here, she stayed home in Wasilla (probably because her husband refused to take care of the kids) and collected the per diem the State gives to employees who are working away from their regular duty station, which in her case was the Governor's mansion in Juneau.

She disappointed a lot of people, moved to Arizona years ago, and only showed a renewed interest in Alaska politics when she saw an opportunity to be elected to Congress.

A lot of Californians have similar feelings about Kamala Harris, getting herself elected Senator in a highly contested election, just to announce a presidential run a few months later and leave the spot vacant. Even for loyal Democrats, it brings her loyalty into question, and never mind the Republicans.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The GOP is whining about the election being stolen by the counting method, but Peltola won the most votes via two methods of counting. Whining the GOP split the vote is stupid, but right-wing fascism gots to stupidz.

It didn't take long for the Q-Tards to start whining again when they lost. Douchebag Cotton quipped 'How can a democrat win an election in Alaska when 60% of voters are registered Republicans? It's rigged!'

A lot of Californians have similar feelings about Kamala Harris, getting herself elected Senator in a highly contested election, just to announce a presidential run a few months later and leave the spot vacant. Even for loyal Democrats, it brings her loyalty into question, and never mind the Republicans.

Cut her a break. She got Biden elected. What did Palin do for McCain?

 

[Jayjay]

Cut her a break. She got Biden elected. What did Palin do for McCain?

 

[Politesse]

The GOP is whining about the election being stolen by the counting method, but Peltola won the most votes via two methods of counting. Whining the GOP split the vote is stupid, but right-wing fascism gots to stupidz.

It didn't take long for the Q-Tards to start whining again when they lost. Douchebag Cotton quipped 'How can a democrat win an election in Alaska when 60% of voters are registered Republicans? It's rigged!'

A lot of Californians have similar feelings about Kamala Harris, getting herself elected Senator in a highly contested election, just to announce a presidential run a few months later and leave the spot vacant. Even for loyal Democrats, it brings her loyalty into question, and never mind the Republicans.

Cut her a break. She got Biden elected. What did Palin do for McCain?

Well, I should say mixed feelings. I like Harris okay and I'm as happy as anyone to have an Oakland gal in the White House, at least on general principle. But feelings do get hurt when politicians wear their ambitions a bit too plainly on their sleeve, so I'm not surprised that Palin's surprise challenger was someone so native as to be actually Native.

 

[blastula]

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

Not as long as they're still in it. The votes of the eliminated candidates are transferred to the voters' next choice.

See https://www.elections.alaska.gov/RCV.php

 

[Jayjay]

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

Not as long as they're still in it. The votes of the eliminated candidates are transferred to the voters' next choice.

See https://www.elections.alaska.gov/RCV.php

It's kind of unfair, because the second choices of voters of top two candidates are not made public. We know how many Begich voters put Palin as their second choice, for example, but not the reverse. It also implies that the tabulation of the votes is also done in multiple rounds, rather than just tabulating the results once and then calculating the outcome.

 

[blastula]

How's any of that unfair?

 

[Jayjay]

How's any of that unfair?

Less information available to the voters about some candidates than others.

Imagine you're a Republican, who voted for Palin. Right now you might be wondering whether it makes sense to switch your vote to Begich in November, to ensure that at least a republican gets elected rather than a democrat. But you don't know who other Palin voters picked as their second choice, so it's a risky tactic.

 

[Bomb#20]

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

Not as long as they're still in it. The votes of the eliminated candidates are transferred to the voters' next choice.

See https://www.elections.alaska.gov/RCV.php

It's kind of unfair, because the second choices of voters of top two candidates are not made public. We know how many Begich voters put Palin as their second choice, for example, but not the reverse. It also implies that the tabulation of the votes is also done in multiple rounds, rather than just tabulating the results once and then calculating the outcome.

We can make a pretty decent guess though. Begich's transfer votes split because he's the one in the middle. So if we approximate the concealed votes as all Palin's 2nd choices go to Begich and all Peltola's 2nd choices go to Begich, we probably won't be far off. That makes Begich the Condorcet winner. And for a Palin voter to switch to Begich in the next election is low risk -- he already knows Palin won't win a two-way against Peltola. The only way switching from Palin reduces his satisfaction is if doing so prevents Palin from winning, and it can't because a Palin win was never going to happen. So if the Republicans are smart they'll pass the word, explain to one another why it's strategically wise to vote for Begich, and then the IRV system will hand the victory to Begich. I therefore forecast that Peltola will win again.

 

[Jayjay]

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

Not as long as they're still in it. The votes of the eliminated candidates are transferred to the voters' next choice.

See https://www.elections.alaska.gov/RCV.php

It's kind of unfair, because the second choices of voters of top two candidates are not made public. We know how many Begich voters put Palin as their second choice, for example, but not the reverse. It also implies that the tabulation of the votes is also done in multiple rounds, rather than just tabulating the results once and then calculating the outcome.

We can make a pretty decent guess though. Begich's transfer votes split because he's the one in the middle. So if we approximate the concealed votes as all Palin's 2nd choices go to Begich and all Peltola's 2nd choices go to Begich, we probably won't be far off. That makes Begich the Condorcet winner. And for a Palin voter to switch to Begich in the next election is low risk -- he already knows Palin won't win a two-way against Peltola. The only way switching from Palin reduces his satisfaction is if doing so prevents Palin from winning, and it can't because a Palin win was never going to happen.

However, a "decent guess" is still just a guess. What if Palin voters are dumb as rocks and didn't put anyone as their second choice, because they don't understand the system (Palin herself doesn't seem to understand it either and wants to get rid of it)? For Palin/Begich to Begich/Palin switcharoo to work, there needs to be 23k or so Palin voters who put Begich as their second choice.... not a whole lot, but it'd be good to know for certain.

If, at the same time, Begich voters who didn't give anyone a secondary vote, now wisened up and decided to give their secondary votes to Palin? That plan will be all for nothing if Palin voters switch and cause Begich to win first round, but don't give him enough secondary votes.

So if the Republicans are smart they'll pass the word, explain to one another why it's strategically wise to vote for Begich, and then the IRV system will hand the victory to Begich. I therefore forecast that Peltola will win again.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are second votes of Palin and Peltola voters counted at all?

Not as long as they're still in it. The votes of the eliminated candidates are transferred to the voters' next choice.

See https://www.elections.alaska.gov/RCV.php

It's kind of unfair, because the second choices of voters of top two candidates are not made public. We know how many Begich voters put Palin as their second choice, for example, but not the reverse. It also implies that the tabulation of the votes is also done in multiple rounds, rather than just tabulating the results once and then calculating the outcome.

We can make a pretty decent guess though. Begich's transfer votes split because he's the one in the middle. So if we approximate the concealed votes as all Palin's 2nd choices go to Begich and all Peltola's 2nd choices go to Begich, we probably won't be far off. That makes Begich the Condorcet winner. And for a Palin voter to switch to Begich in the next election is low risk -- he already knows Palin won't win a two-way against Peltola. The only way switching from Palin reduces his satisfaction is if doing so prevents Palin from winning, and it can't because a Palin win was never going to happen.

However, a "decent guess" is still just a guess. What if Palin voters are dumb as rocks and didn't put anyone as their second choice, because they don't understand the system (Palin herself doesn't seem to understand it either and wants to get rid of it)? For Palin/Begich to Begich/Palin switcharoo to work, there needs to be 23k or so Palin voters who put Begich as their second choice.... not a whole lot, but it'd be good to know for certain.

How hard is it to vote per preference. Palin is my first pick, Begich is my second pick, Satan isn't on the ballot so he is a write-in as my third. (Yes, I know you can't do write-ins for the instant runoff).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

How's any of that unfair?

Less information available to the voters about some candidates than others.

We know quite enough. 1/3 of Begich's voters selected the other party's candidate as their second choice. That got the Democrat elected.

This is the advantage of this type of voting, it helps moderates not have to vote for the zealot.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

However, a "decent guess" is still just a guess. What if Palin voters are dumb as rocks and didn't put anyone as their second choice, because they don't understand the system (Palin herself doesn't seem to understand it either and wants to get rid of it)? For Palin/Begich to Begich/Palin switcharoo to work, there needs to be 23k or so Palin voters who put Begich as their second choice.... not a whole lot, but it'd be good to know for certain.

I think the experience is similar to getting american drivers to accept and use roundabouts. There is a learning curve. Honestly, I think Palin voters aren't that bright so I can understand any confusion on their part. But it's no reason to disregard a clear improvement in the process. Had she won, neither she nor any of her supporters would be disparaging the new voting system.

 

[Jayjay]

However, a "decent guess" is still just a guess. What if Palin voters are dumb as rocks and didn't put anyone as their second choice, because they don't understand the system (Palin herself doesn't seem to understand it either and wants to get rid of it)? For Palin/Begich to Begich/Palin switcharoo to work, there needs to be 23k or so Palin voters who put Begich as their second choice.... not a whole lot, but it'd be good to know for certain.

I think the experience is similar to getting american drivers to accept and use roundabouts. There is a learning curve. Honestly, I think Palin voters aren't that bright so I can understand any confusion on their part. But it's no reason to disregard a clear improvement in the process. Had she won, neither she nor any of her supporters would be disparaging the new voting system.

It might be best if Begich wins... currently both he and Palin have criticized the ranked-choice vote. If Palin wins, she'd continue to criticize it probably, because she'd also have won the nomination in the republican primary and regular single-choice ballot. But Begich can only win due to this system so if he won, he might come around to supporting it.

Except that as an incumbent he would then win the hypothetical republican primary, or maybe there wouldn't even be a primary, so it's not 100% certain he would stop speaking against ranked-choice even if he won.

Note that I'm not against he process of calculating votes. I'm against not tabulating and publishing second ranked votes of top-two candidates. Or even lower-ranked choices of other candidates, should there be more of them. This is comparable to stopping vote counting in a regular single-choice ballot when one candidate receives 50%, and not bothering to tabulate the remaining ballots.