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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Putin's speech was postponed to wednesday. It could be due to technical difficulties getting the nuclear warheads to work. I wouldn't rule out anything when it comes to that madman.
More realistically though he'll announce mobilization.

Besides, US intelligence seems pretty good at predicting what Russia will do, and they're saying that. So if Russia was preparing a nuclear strike, I think we'd hear about it in advance.

(yes I know I'm just talking to myself here...)
On the TV debte fro,]m Russia that payed over here one of peole siad if it is as Putin said there should be full scale mobilization.

We have Neo-Cons, they have Neo-Soviets.

I expeect we do get information from inside Russia, but then I'm ptobably talking to myself.

That s why Trump with his affinity for Putin is really trialing when he took classified material. The saying is sources and methods.
 
Malinda 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇵🇱 🇨🇦 on Twitter: "🇺🇦 Armed Forces of Ukraine are storming Liman At this moment, the city is being stormed. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine again began to storm Liman in two directions - from the west and north-west,” write Russian military correspondents. (pic link)" / Twitter

Nothing further, and I've been watching Twitter intently.

Russo Ukranian War Updates on Twitter: "🇷🇺 🇺🇦 A #Russian T-72B3 battle tank was hit by a #Ukrainian ATGM strike outside of the town of #Lysychansk. Video via @Osinttechnical (vid link)" / Twitter

ZMiST on Twitter: "💪Ukrainian forces have liberated the village of Bilohorivka, in the Donetsk region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are getting closer to Lysychans'k. (vid link)" / Twitter

Maciej Urbaniak on Twitter: "@War_Mapper The interesting thing is that Ukrainian SOF seem to be moving freely on the allegedly Russian controlled territory. They seems to have entered Kreminna and Svatove number of times. Most likely recon but still, shows how weak Russian defences and control of the area is." / Twitter

Baltic nations close borders to Russians over Ukraine war - ABC News - "Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have closed their borders to most Russians in response to the wide domestic support in Russia for the war in Ukraine"
Poland’s interior minister, Mariusz Kaminski, signed regulations Monday that will put the central European nation's war-related ban on Russian travelers into effect on Sept. 26. Poland, which borders Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, still has tight restrictions on foreign visitors remaining from the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
While we in the west like to revel in Ukrainian victories in the Northern front, the situation in Kherson is still dire. Russia seems to be making progress at restoring bridges over Nova Kakhovka dam:



Of course Ukraine can just hit it again. But if there are multiple sections, and the canal is filled with dirt and gravel, low-yield M31 rockets that HIMARS uses are not going to make much of a dent. On the plus side, there's still a curved part of the bridge over the dam itself (not visible in these pictures) that can be targeted and that's harder to fix, but there might be a way around it over the railroad tracks.

If Russia can restore some of the logistics over the Dnipro river this way, together with ferries, Ukraine could lose the initiative and be pushed back. And if Ukraine can't kick Russia to the other side of Dnipro, it will eventually lose the entire coastline.
 
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To anyone who thinks barbos is an extremist, consider what Russian propaganda feeds its people on a daily basis:



This is where barbos, and millions of Russians like him, get their information from. Sure he says he doesn't watch television, but instead gets his information from the internet, but if that's true he only seems to follow Russian youtubers who 100% agree with Putin's propaganda. He's being fed the same warmongering horse shit through a different channel.

Russian propagandists have geared up the genocidal talk of total destruction of Ukraine in recent weeks. Repetition is their tool of normalizing the idea of striking civilian targets and desensitizing the Russian public to possible nuclear holocaust. After all, if you're openly advocating bombing a country of 44 million people to 19th century because you don't like what they post on twitter, then what's a few nukes here or there?

It makes him more of a dupe or lackey than an extremist.
 
Putin announces "partial" mobilization:


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced a partial mobilization in Russia as the war in Ukraine reaches nearly seven months and Moscow loses ground on the battlefield. Putin also warned the West that “it’s not a bluff” that Russia would use all the means at its disposal to protect its territory.

The total number of reservists drafted in the partial mobilization is 300,000, officials said.

(...)

Putin said he has signed a decree on the partial mobilization, which is due to start on Wednesday.

“We are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all, those who served in the armed forces have a certain military specialty and relevant experience,” Putin said.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in a televised interview Wednesday that conscripts and students won’t be mobilized — only those with relevant combat and service experience will be.
I suspect most of them will be chosen so that Putin's middle-class supporters in Moscow and St. Petersburg won't be affected. Russian people probably don't have the guts to fight back, as long as Putin keeps the numbers small and only increases the number gradually.

It's also ironic that he blames the west for "nuclear blackmail" (which nobody in the US or NATO is doing), and in the same breath engages in nuclear blackmail:
Putin accused the West in engaging in “nuclear blackmail” and noted “statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility of using nuclear weapons of mass destruction against Russia.”

“To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for separate components and more modern than those of NATO countries and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal,” Putin said.

He added: “It’s not a bluff.”
:rolleyes:

Anyway, this is bad news for Ukraine, but it was obvious that Russia was going to mobilize eventually anyway and the fact that it didn't do it until now has given Ukraine time to react. Now the grace period is coming to a close. The west needs to ramp up training and delivery of weapons asap to counter the increase in numbers.
 
If twitter is to be believed, the actual text of the mobilization decree doesn't limit it to just reservists. Anyone can get drafted. Pretty convenient, if you want to get rid of anti-war activists or dissidents: just send them to Ukraine to be cannon fodder. Or maybe their children.
 
Considering how he main line troops performed, I don't see that reservists and conscripts are going t0 do any better.

I read a book on he Battle Of Stalingrad. They were short of rifles. In an attack if you did nt have a rifle you ran along and picked one up when somebody got shot. The battle in the east was one of attrition. No finesse or tactics, the mass attack.

For the Roman empresses when facing political problems at home the paradigm was find an old enemy to attack.


Like Hitler it appears Putin will destroy his country rather than accept defeat.

From bios that have been broadcast Putin s probaly steeped in WWII and Russian history, and sees himself as in the line of Russian conquerors.

I'd bet he sees Ukraine like WWII.


The Battle of Kursk was a major World War II Eastern Front engagement between the forces of Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union near Kursk in the southwestern USSR during late summer 1943; it ultimately became the largest tank battle in history.

The battle began with the launch of the German offensive Operation Citadel (German: Unternehmen Zitadelle), on 5 July, which had the objective of pinching off the Kursk salient with attacks on the base of the salient from north and south simultaneously. After the German offensive stalled on the northern side of the salient, on 12 July the Soviets commenced their Kursk Strategic Offensive Operation with the launch of Operation Kutuzov (Russian: Кутузов) against the rear of the German forces on the same side. On the southern side, the Soviets also launched powerful counterattacks the same day, one of which led to a large armoured clash, the Battle of Prokhorovka. On 3 August, the Soviets began the second phase of the Kursk Strategic Offensive Operation with the launch of Operation Polkovodets Rumyantsev (Russian: Полководец Румянцев) against the German forces on the southern side of the salient.

The Germans hoped to weaken the Soviet offensive potential for the summer of 1943 by cutting off and enveloping the forces that they anticipated would be in the Kursk salient.[33] Hitler believed that a victory here would reassert German strength and improve his prestige with his allies, whom he thought were considering withdrawing from the war.[34] It was also hoped that large numbers of Soviet prisoners would be captured to be used as slave labour in the German armaments industry.[35] The Soviet government had foreknowledge of the German intentions, provided in part by British intelligence's Tunny intercepts. Aware months in advance that the attack would fall on the neck of the Kursk salient, the Soviets built a defence in depth designed to wear down the German armoured spearhead.[36] The Germans delayed the offensive while they tried to build up their forces and waited for new weapons,[37][38][39] giving the Red Army time to construct a series of deep defensive belts[40] and establish a large reserve force for counter-offensives.[41]

The battle was the final strategic offensive that the Germans were able to launch on the Eastern Front. Because the Allied invasion of Sicily began during the battle, Adolf Hitler was forced to divert troops training in France to meet the Allied threat in the Mediterranean, rather than using them as a strategic reserve for the Eastern Front.[42] Hitler canceled the offensive at Kursk after only a week, in part to divert forces to Italy.[43] Germany's extensive losses of men and tanks ensured that the victorious Soviet Red Army enjoyed the strategic initiative for the remainder of the war. The Battle of Kursk was the first time in the Second World War that a German strategic offensive was halted before it could break through enemy defences and penetrate to its strategic depths.[44][45] Though the Red Army had succeeded in winter offensives previously, their counter-offensives after the German attack at Kursk were their first successful summer offensives of the war.[46]
 

Hungarian delegation member addressing UN meeting, in ...... russian.
His russian is actually very very good. He has slight georgian accent, weird.



Australians are emigrating to Russia:

Her russian is very cute.
 
Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
 
Kőrösi studied at the Moscow Institute of International Relations (Russia), the University of Leeds Institute of International Relations (United Kingdom), the Truman Institute for Middle East Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel), and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (United States of America).[4]

That explains his nearly perfect russian.
 
Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
View attachment 40417
You show your utter ignorance again.
There is no russian infantry in Ukraine, that and the fact that russian coalition has been very averse to losses explains such a low number.
 

Hungarian delegation member addressing UN meeting, in ...... russian.

Csaba Kőrösi is the president of the 77th UN General Assembly. Not part of the "Hungarian delegation". He represents the UN.

His 12 minute speech, in English, included a portion where he switched to different languages. I could recognize French and Russian, maybe Arabic, and at least one more. So it's not some sort of concession that Hungary or the world are siding with Russia on this war. It just happened to be one of the languages he speaks.
 
Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
View attachment 40417
You show your utter ignorance again.
There is no russian infantry in Ukraine, that and the fact that russian coalition has been very averse to losses explains such a low number.
What also explains it is that Russian MoD is full of shit. It has lied before, why wouldn't it lie now?

Shoigu had to make up some number not to seem completely detached from reality, and to not let the Ukrainian published numbers dominate conversation at a time when reservists are starting to calculate their odds of coming back alive from Ukraine.
 
His 12 minute speech, in English, included a portion where he switched to different languages.
Do you have a link to full speech?
it's not some sort of concession that Hungary or the world are siding with Russia on this war.
Hungary or the world are not siding with US/UK neocons.
Interestingly enough. Pakistan has sided with Russia. That is after US reportedly overthrew their previous PM for being too pro-russian. In reality new PM is even more pro-russian :)
 
Russian defense minister released russian military losses so far - 5 937 men.
That does not include DNR/LNR infantry and other non russian army regiments.
View attachment 40417
You show your utter ignorance again.
There is no russian infantry in Ukraine, that and the fact that russian coalition has been very averse to losses explains such a low number.
What also explains it is that Russian MoD is full of shit. It has lied before, why wouldn't it lie now?

Shoigu had to make up some number not to seem completely detached from reality, and to not let the Ukrainian published numbers dominate conversation at a time when reservists are starting to calculate their odds of coming back alive from Ukraine.
No, that's not a lie. He said it's russian army losses. Total losses are estimated by various independent millitary experts to be 15-25K. Ukrainian losses are estimated to be 60-100K dead.

Ukrainian Defence Minister lied about ~9K losses of ukrainian millitary.
 
Starts at about 31 minutes.
He does not speak arabic/french there. It's someone else translating him.

Anyway, his russian pronunciation is better than his english.
Not surprising, considering that russian pronunciation is easier than english.
 
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