Swammerdami
Squadron Leader
I'm glad you asked! It's common knowledge that any claim that has a probability of being true that is 50 percent or less is by definition not probably true. So any argument based on such a premise is not probably true. For further study, I'd recommend Schaum's Outline of Logic, Second Edition. Chapter 9 on induction should be especially helpful. I've used that book to learn logic because in addition to my being a debater, I'm also a mathematician and am currently studying how to prove mathematical theorems. Applying that kind of knowledge to the issue of the historicity of Jesus allows me to spot weak and fallacious arguments, and I've seen plenty of those in the arguments for a real Jesus.
So what do you think of the probabilities Carrier comes up with? Not the final numbers, but his methodology? Do you have confidence in that? I won't repeat my own opinions, expressed in one of the other threads.
By the way, one of my 30+ U.S. patents is for an algorithm to combine probability estimations. There's a fair amount of mathematics in some of my peer-reviewed computer science papers.
If you're interested in proving mathematical theorems, I hope you check out the latest thread in the Natural Sciences-->Mathematics forum. The puzzles I present there — still unsolved at IIDB — do involve interesting proofs. (Never mind that the latest post in that thread derives a NEGATIVE probability, showing that brute linear algebra fails on that problem.)