How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

.

I considered this. That perhaps I'm just anxious to see Ukraine push in the Zaporizhzhia area toward Mariupol. Perhaps they are in preparation for a counteroffensive and patience is required.

And now the very next day, perhaps not.

The West has contributed to Ukraine’s inability to take advantage of having pinned Russian forces in Bakhmut by slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems and supplies essential for large-scale counteroffensive operations.

I think the lack of media coverage is because daily reports about Ukraine losing ground are so depressing. Nobody wants to hear bad news.

There's media coverage. Stories of Netherlands, Sweden, Finland stepping up and giving weapons to Ukraine. And of course the Leopard tanks that will likely come when the US either gives some token number of Abrams or Germany gives reexport permission for the Leopards. There's just nothing positive on the ground in Ukraine. Perhaps the US slowed the armament spigot to rally Europeans around the cause.

 

[Copernicus]

Perhaps Olaf has finally calculated that the consequences of not sending the tanks will be worse for him than the consequences of sending the tanks.

Minister: Germany won’t block Poland giving Ukraine tanks​

 

[TV and credit cards]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.
This must frustrate Zelenskyy to no end to have to expend his forces, watch his people suffer while Germany demurs and France studies shit.

I wonder if it would even matter if NATO countries all committed to upgrading and expanding their defense forces. They would be half run over by a foreign invader before they ever came to a decision on what to do.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that he plans to visit Ukraine shortly, “probably within the next four weeks.”

Maybe it's just me but I don't read four weeks as shortly given the situation. And why does he feel a need to announce it? Just get off your dead ass and go.

 

[Jayjay]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.

Hmm, to me it seems Russia has more troops in Ukraine than ever. I don't think they're running out at all.

I think Russian casualties as reported by Ukraine are grossly overestimated. For past several months, it's been 500-1000 KIA daily (and even more WIA). That's just not realistic. I'd believe maybe average of 100-200 per day.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up.

It does not appear to me that Ukraine is trying to make progress on the battle front. The battle line favors the defense, Ukraine is taking advantage of that while focusing it's efforts on hollowing out the Russian forces so they can pull another breakthrough like the one they already pulled that caused the Russian lines to fall way back. Look what happened before--bypass the strong points, the troops retreat rather than get cut off and the retreat path becomes a shooting gallery.

In retrospect, it looks like exactly the opposite is happening: Russia is eating away Ukrainian forces in Soledar and Bakhmut, preventing Ukraine from attacking elsewhere.

This guy agrees:

Ukraine Conflict Monitor - 16 January – 21 January 2023 (Weekly update)

Key takeaways: · Last week did not deliver strategic or operational changes in Ukraine; · There were no frontline changes in the Kharkiv Oblast. But Russian artillery strikes continued to harass Ukrainian civilians across the region;

rochanconsulting.substack.com

Concurrently, over the recent weeks, while Russians were deploying expendable Wagner fighters into the fight, Ukrainians deployed their operational formations, some of them elite, to stall Russian advances. So, in other words, the fall of Soledar had a limited impact on Russian operational units, which cannot be said about Kyiv's forces.

As long as Wagner presents itself as a viable force, Moscow will seek to force Ukraine into a war of attrition. Not only will Ukraine devote its men to defending the frontline, but it may also prevent them from mounting a large-scale offensive later.

Given the rather lax approach to how Russians treat their personnel, it would not be surprising if similar methods were repeated when a large number of Russian reservists enter Ukraine. So far, it seems that Kyiv does not seem to have an answer on how to respond to Moscow's attempts to impose how this phase of the war will be fought.

Kyiv opted out from conducting another wave of mobilisation in repose to the Russian call-up and stated that they had enough manpower to tackle 300,000 Russian reservists. However, the current phase of the war is very artillery- and infantry-centric; from Ukraine's perspective, it is unsustainable.

War of attrition doesn't favor Ukraine right now. It is imperative that Ukraine figures out a way to fight Wagner without suffering devastating losses in the process. I'm not sure the weapon deliveries agreed last week will be enough, and even if they are, it'll take months before they can be deployed to the battlefield effectively.

 

[Copernicus]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.
This must frustrate Zelenskyy to no end to have to expend his forces, watch his people suffer while Germany demurs and France studies shit.

I wonder if it would even matter if NATO countries all committed to upgrading and expanding their defense forces. They would be half run over by a foreign invader before they ever came to a decision on what to do.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that he plans to visit Ukraine shortly, “probably within the next four weeks.”

Maybe it's just me but I don't read four weeks as shortly given the situation. And why does he feel a need to announce it? Just get off your dead ass and go.

That is such a typically European way of moving forward. The EU and partners are a giant confederation of states that require a lot of bureaucracy, negotiation, compromise, diplomacy, and accommodation to get anything done. However, they do get things done, and sometimes what they end up doing is well-done. It is obligatory that all parties end up complaining about the way the process works and blaming it all on the other parties to the negotiation, especially France and Germany, not to mention the wayward arrogant uncooperative UK. I'm sure that Olaf was making a lot of demands for concessions from others, especially including the US, on his perceived needs behind the scenes.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ukraine's not getting enough weapons to stem the tide. Russia on the other hand is still ramping up.

It does not appear to me that Ukraine is trying to make progress on the battle front. The battle line favors the defense, Ukraine is taking advantage of that while focusing it's efforts on hollowing out the Russian forces so they can pull another breakthrough like the one they already pulled that caused the Russian lines to fall way back. Look what happened before--bypass the strong points, the troops retreat rather than get cut off and the retreat path becomes a shooting gallery.

In retrospect, it looks like exactly the opposite is happening: Russia is eating away Ukrainian forces in Soledar and Bakhmut, preventing Ukraine from attacking elsewhere.

This guy agrees:

Ukraine Conflict Monitor - 16 January – 21 January 2023 (Weekly update)

Key takeaways: · Last week did not deliver strategic or operational changes in Ukraine; · There were no frontline changes in the Kharkiv Oblast. But Russian artillery strikes continued to harass Ukrainian civilians across the region;

rochanconsulting.substack.com

Concurrently, over the recent weeks, while Russians were deploying expendable Wagner fighters into the fight, Ukrainians deployed their operational formations, some of them elite, to stall Russian advances. So, in other words, the fall of Soledar had a limited impact on Russian operational units, which cannot be said about Kyiv's forces.

As long as Wagner presents itself as a viable force, Moscow will seek to force Ukraine into a war of attrition. Not only will Ukraine devote its men to defending the frontline, but it may also prevent them from mounting a large-scale offensive later.

Given the rather lax approach to how Russians treat their personnel, it would not be surprising if similar methods were repeated when a large number of Russian reservists enter Ukraine. So far, it seems that Kyiv does not seem to have an answer on how to respond to Moscow's attempts to impose how this phase of the war will be fought.

Kyiv opted out from conducting another wave of mobilisation in repose to the Russian call-up and stated that they had enough manpower to tackle 300,000 Russian reservists. However, the current phase of the war is very artillery- and infantry-centric; from Ukraine's perspective, it is unsustainable.

War of attrition doesn't favor Ukraine right now. It is imperative that Ukraine figures out a way to fight Wagner without suffering devastating losses in the process. I'm not sure the weapon deliveries agreed last week will be enough, and even if they are, it'll take months before they can be deployed to the battlefield effectively.

Ukraine is not capable of firing their own munitions into Russia. Russia is fighting with one arm behind their back, but with their weapons available, that is still allowing them to target the public and murder scores of civilians at a time and destroy public utilities. Ukraine lacks this capability and NATO is unwilling to escalate this invasion into a NATO conflict, which means that Ukraine can't make Russia hurt, which could be something that'd be counterproductive in itself.

As much as the war isn't popular in Russia, the people don't care enough about it to do much about it, not in the face of imprisonment. This makes things harder for Ukraine as any attempt to fight back in kind would potentially unify the Russian populace, and they lack the weapons to even do so. And China and India won't stop buying discounted oil and gas, so Russia continues to get enough money to make this invasion work.

So Ukraine is in a position of they are incapable of defending themselves for all too much longer, against an enemy with plenty of people to throw at the problem and allies that are limited in their support in an attempt not to Great War III this. However, while Russia is the advancing side of this, it is so slowly (especially in regards to the fact that Ukraine is an inferior opponent) and at such a high cost. Does Russia even know what they end game here is?

 

[bilby]

Maybe it's just me but I don't read four weeks as shortly given the situation. And why does he feel a need to announce it?

The Germans have a lot of restrictions to prevent politicians from just doing stuff, without first telling the public.

That goes double for stuff that involves German military equipment outside Germany, and triple for the deployment of German tanks in Eastern Europe.

Can you think of any reasons why that might be?

"Once all the Germans were warlike, and mean,
But that couldn't happen again.
We taught them a lesson, in nineteen eighteen,
And they've hardly bothered us since then..."

- Tom Lehrer, MLF Lullaby

 

[Copernicus]

Maybe it's just me but I don't read four weeks as shortly given the situation. And why does he feel a need to announce it?

The Germans have a lot of restrictions to prevent politicians from just doing stuff, without first telling the public.

That goes double for stuff that involves German military equipment outside Germany, and triple for the deployment of German tanks in Eastern Europe.

Can you think of any reasons why that might be?

"Once all the Germans were warlike, and mean,
But that couldn't happen again.
We taught them a lesson, in nineteen eighteen,
And they've hardly bothered us since then..."

- Tom Lehrer, MLF Lullaby

We should also remember that both WWI and WWII were essentially wars between Germany and Russia, wherein they fought over possession of the territory that used to be the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth--Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. Between the wars, Poland had been restored, and WWII started as a Hitler-Stalin collaboration designed to split it into two pieces, each side reclaiming territory it perceived as having been lost at the end of WWI. Stalin won WWII and gobbled up half of Poland, ethnically cleansing it of Poles and shifting Polish territory into a large chunk of former German territory. Now we have Poland strongly supporting Ukraine against their traditional enemy--an expansionist Russia--and Germany is being asked to get involved in that conflict again. The historical context in that region might make the Germans a bit more reluctant to be seen as a major arms supplier to Ukraine, which it had brutally occupied for most of the WWII period.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.

Hmm, to me it seems Russia has more troops in Ukraine than ever. I don't think they're running out at all.

I think Russian casualties as reported by Ukraine are grossly overestimated. For past several months, it's been 500-1000 KIA daily (and even more WIA). That's just not realistic. I'd believe maybe average of 100-200 per day.

I'm not talking about just troops. And frankly Russia is not fielding troops around Bakhmut. Much of Russia's trained forces have been devastated. What they are fielding now are poorly trained civilians and convicts who are thrown into a kill or be killed situation. For this reason it is not fair to judge opposing forces on a one to one basis. Ukrainian forces are trained. Beyond weapons and tactics training, Ukrainian troops I'm sure receive some training on controlling the urge to panic. I'm quite sure mobilized Russian forces receive nothing of the kind. Convicts get a gun in their hands and a gun in their back and ordered forward. The question in my mind is what number of untrained, panicked individuals does it take to overcome a well trained fighting force? Who's wearing down who here?
The convicts that are initially thrown at Ukrainian forces likely do little more than fatigue Ukrainian forces in the hopes that an overwhelming number of poorly trained mobilized civilians can get the job done.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Maybe it's just me but I don't read four weeks as shortly given the situation. And why does he feel a need to announce it?

The Germans have a lot of restrictions to prevent politicians from just doing stuff, without first telling the public.

That goes double for stuff that involves German military equipment outside Germany, and triple for the deployment of German tanks in Eastern Europe.

Can you think of any reasons why that might be?

"Once all the Germans were warlike, and mean,
But that couldn't happen again.
We taught them a lesson, in nineteen eighteen,
And they've hardly bothered us since then..."

- Tom Lehrer, MLF Lullaby

We should also remember that both WWI and WWII were essentially wars between Germany and Russia, wherein they fought over possession of the territory that used to be the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth--Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. Between the wars, Poland had been restored, and WWII started as a Hitler-Stalin collaboration designed to split it into two pieces, each side reclaiming territory it perceived as having been lost at the end of WWI. Stalin won WWII and gobbled up half of Poland, ethnically cleansing it of Poles and shifting Polish territory into a large chunk of former German territory. Now we have Poland strongly supporting Ukraine against their traditional enemy--an expansionist Russia--and Germany is being asked to get involved in that conflict again. The historical context in that region might make the Germans a bit more reluctant to be seen as a major arms supplier to Ukraine, which it had brutally occupied for most of the WWII period.

Seems to me if Germany was largely responsible for the offensive destruction of Ukraine during WWII, they might feel some sense of obligation to defend the same.
Frankly, I don't think Germany today has any policy regarding Ukraine. Unless prevarication is a policy.

 

[Copernicus]

Maybe it's just me but I don't read four weeks as shortly given the situation. And why does he feel a need to announce it?

The Germans have a lot of restrictions to prevent politicians from just doing stuff, without first telling the public.

That goes double for stuff that involves German military equipment outside Germany, and triple for the deployment of German tanks in Eastern Europe.

Can you think of any reasons why that might be?

"Once all the Germans were warlike, and mean,
But that couldn't happen again.
We taught them a lesson, in nineteen eighteen,
And they've hardly bothered us since then..."

- Tom Lehrer, MLF Lullaby

We should also remember that both WWI and WWII were essentially wars between Germany and Russia, wherein they fought over possession of the territory that used to be the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth--Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. Between the wars, Poland had been restored, and WWII started as a Hitler-Stalin collaboration designed to split it into two pieces, each side reclaiming territory it perceived as having been lost at the end of WWI. Stalin won WWII and gobbled up half of Poland, ethnically cleansing it of Poles and shifting Polish territory into a large chunk of former German territory. Now we have Poland strongly supporting Ukraine against their traditional enemy--an expansionist Russia--and Germany is being asked to get involved in that conflict again. The historical context in that region might make the Germans a bit more reluctant to be seen as a major arms supplier to Ukraine, which it had brutally occupied for most of the WWII period.

Seems to me if Germany was largely responsible for the offensive destruction of Ukraine during WWII, they might feel some sense of obligation to defend the same.
Frankly, I don't think Germany today has any policy regarding Ukraine. Unless prevarication is a policy.

Actually, the Nazi occupation of Ukraine was as brutal, if not worse, than the Russian occupation. Stalin had starved roughly 3 million Ukrainians to death in the Holodomor, when he imposed collectivization on the agricultural economy. Most of the food was stolen by the Russia-dominated Soviet regime and sold to foreigners for hard currency. Germany was a big customer and continued to benefit from Ukrainian bountiful harvests until they invaded and occupied Ukraine. Since Stalin had killed or deported most of the ethnic Polish population from Belarus and Ukraine during the Great Terror in 1937-1938, Ukrainian nationalists had hoped for an invasion from Poland to drive the Russians out. However, Poland signed a non-aggression pact with Stalin, destroying that hope. Then they looked to Germany for some intervention to relieve them, but the Nazis proved to be even worse than the Soviets. Hitler saw Ukrainians as subhumans to be eliminated or deported to make way for more superior German farmers. Hence, he kept Stalin's system of collectivized agriculture in place, leading, again, to widespread starvation. And he killed off much of the huge Jewish population in Ukraine, often with the help of non-Jewish Ukrainian nationals. Reprisals against Ukrainians were common whenever partisan activity hindered German operations, and Ukrainians were often used as human shields.

So, if you think Germany was not largely responsible for the offensive destruction of Ukraine during WWII, I think that you are wrong. They were primarily responsible for it, because much of the most destructive fighting took place in Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland. Much of the Soviet Red Army that conquered Germany was made of Ukrainians and Belarusians, who were glad to see the German occupiers pushed out, even if it meant a return of the Russians. When Germans captured Soviet soldiers, a great many of whom were Ukrainian, they packed them into concentration camps and systematically starved them to death. I don't think that Germans feel an obligation to defend Ukraine. I think that they would rather forget what they did in Ukraine and what Soviet Ukrainians did to them in retaliation.

(My source for much of the above is Timothy Snyder's recently-published history called Bloodlands).

 

[Jayjay]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.

Hmm, to me it seems Russia has more troops in Ukraine than ever. I don't think they're running out at all.

I think Russian casualties as reported by Ukraine are grossly overestimated. For past several months, it's been 500-1000 KIA daily (and even more WIA). That's just not realistic. I'd believe maybe average of 100-200 per day.

I'm not talking about just troops. And frankly Russia is not fielding troops around Bakhmut. Much of Russia's trained forces have been devastated. What they are fielding now are poorly trained civilians and convicts who are thrown into a kill or be killed situation. For this reason it is not fair to judge opposing forces on a one to one basis. Ukrainian forces are trained. Beyond weapons and tactics training, Ukrainian troops I'm sure receive some training on controlling the urge to panic. I'm quite sure mobilized Russian forces receive nothing of the kind. Convicts get a gun in their hands and a gun in their back and ordered forward. The question in my mind is what number of untrained, panicked individuals does it take to overcome a well trained fighting force? Who's wearing down who here?
The convicts that are initially thrown at Ukrainian forces likely do little more than fatigue Ukrainian forces in the hopes that an overwhelming number of poorly trained mobilized civilians can get the job done.

They seem to be getting the job done just fine: Russia is advancing, Ukraine is not.

And the poor training of convicts is exactly my point. Russia is getting maybe higher numerical casualties, but they're low-quality cannon fodder that's easy to replace. Ukraine is losing trained and elite soldiers defending Bakhmut, who are not so expendable. From Russian point of view that's exactly what they want. And I don't see Wagner running out of convicts anytime soon. The real wagner fighters are not taking nearly as many casualties.

There's also the question of morale. Making gains, even small ones, has a huge impact on rest of the Russian force. And an opposite impact on Ukrainians. Ukraine needs to be able to figure out how to stop Wagner's advance, and push them back even. I'm not sure if just more weapons are even enough, they need better tactics, intelligence, and leadership also.

 

[Copernicus]

I think that Jayjay makes sense here about the way the Wagner Group is fighting this war with human wave tactics. The purpose of the expendable troops is to wear down the defenders and deplete their ammunition. The experienced fighters tend to come in as a secondary or tertiary wave. I don't know how long they can keep up these tactics, but the Ukrainians are being slowly pushed back for now.

 

[SLD]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.

Hmm, to me it seems Russia has more troops in Ukraine than ever. I don't think they're running out at all.

I think Russian casualties as reported by Ukraine are grossly overestimated. For past several months, it's been 500-1000 KIA daily (and even more WIA). That's just not realistic. I'd believe maybe average of 100-200 per day.

I'm not talking about just troops. And frankly Russia is not fielding troops around Bakhmut. Much of Russia's trained forces have been devastated. What they are fielding now are poorly trained civilians and convicts who are thrown into a kill or be killed situation. For this reason it is not fair to judge opposing forces on a one to one basis. Ukrainian forces are trained. Beyond weapons and tactics training, Ukrainian troops I'm sure receive some training on controlling the urge to panic. I'm quite sure mobilized Russian forces receive nothing of the kind. Convicts get a gun in their hands and a gun in their back and ordered forward. The question in my mind is what number of untrained, panicked individuals does it take to overcome a well trained fighting force? Who's wearing down who here?
The convicts that are initially thrown at Ukrainian forces likely do little more than fatigue Ukrainian forces in the hopes that an overwhelming number of poorly trained mobilized civilians can get the job done.

They seem to be getting the job done just fine: Russia is advancing, Ukraine is not.

And the poor training of convicts is exactly my point. Russia is getting maybe higher numerical casualties, but they're low-quality cannon fodder that's easy to replace. Ukraine is losing trained and elite soldiers defending Bakhmut, who are not so expendable. From Russian point of view that's exactly what they want. And I don't see Wagner running out of convicts anytime soon. The real wagner fighters are not taking nearly as many casualties.

There's also the question of morale. Making gains, even small ones, has a huge impact on rest of the Russian force. And an opposite impact on Ukrainians. Ukraine needs to be able to figure out how to stop Wagner's advance, and push them back even. I'm not sure if just more weapons are even enough, they need better tactics, intelligence, and leadership also.

But they’re not so easily replaced. Wagner can only get so many convicts to use like that. They aren’t just signing up in droves to be slaughtered. Nor do they have that many trained elite to back them up. It’s a myth. They only had a core of 6 - 7,000 fighters to start this war. and a lot are now casualties. Furthermore even cannon fodder need to be adequately supplied. Wagner has to rely on the same supply lines the Russian Army does. And they suck. Morale is a Russian problem, not a Ukrainian one. The Russians don’t want to be there. And it doesn’t matter how many troops they have - if they don’t fight, they’re useless, worse than useless as they are a potential security threat. Ukraine does have a lot of issues, including training, and more weapons and people. But they’re getting good intel from us. Some of it real time. Their leadership is also getting support from American And other NATO advisors, some even on the ground with them. Furthermore, Russia has to do more than advance, they also have to hold ground. That too sucks up troops. Finally, Ukraine can afford to lose some ground, as long as it inflicts massive casualties on the Russians. It’s not a two way war of attrition. Remember, the Germans made amazing gains against western Allies in 1918. A lot of fucking good it did them. They did it again in the Ardennes in 1944. Wow! They pushed the Allies back into Belgium. Held us up for three or four weeks. Spring brought a different story.

In the end the Russians might, MIGHT, capture Bakhmut. But even if they do, they’ll have trouble holding it, and it will be a hollow victory. They’ll have spent their wad and only set themselves up for an even bigger failure in the end.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Maybe it's just me but I don't read four weeks as shortly given the situation. And why does he feel a need to announce it?

The Germans have a lot of restrictions to prevent politicians from just doing stuff, without first telling the public.

That goes double for stuff that involves German military equipment outside Germany, and triple for the deployment of German tanks in Eastern Europe.

Can you think of any reasons why that might be?

"Once all the Germans were warlike, and mean,
But that couldn't happen again.
We taught them a lesson, in nineteen eighteen,
And they've hardly bothered us since then..."

- Tom Lehrer, MLF Lullaby

We should also remember that both WWI and WWII were essentially wars between Germany and Russia, wherein they fought over possession of the territory that used to be the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth--Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. Between the wars, Poland had been restored, and WWII started as a Hitler-Stalin collaboration designed to split it into two pieces, each side reclaiming territory it perceived as having been lost at the end of WWI. Stalin won WWII and gobbled up half of Poland, ethnically cleansing it of Poles and shifting Polish territory into a large chunk of former German territory. Now we have Poland strongly supporting Ukraine against their traditional enemy--an expansionist Russia--and Germany is being asked to get involved in that conflict again. The historical context in that region might make the Germans a bit more reluctant to be seen as a major arms supplier to Ukraine, which it had brutally occupied for most of the WWII period.

Seems to me if Germany was largely responsible for the offensive destruction of Ukraine during WWII, they might feel some sense of obligation to defend the same.
Frankly, I don't think Germany today has any policy regarding Ukraine. Unless prevarication is a policy.

Actually, the Nazi occupation of Ukraine was as brutal, if not worse, than the Russian occupation. Stalin had starved roughly 3 million Ukrainians to death in the Holodomor, when he imposed collectivization on the agricultural economy. Most of the food was stolen by the Russia-dominated Soviet regime and sold to foreigners for hard currency. Germany was a big customer and continued to benefit from Ukrainian bountiful harvests until they invaded and occupied Ukraine. Since Stalin had killed or deported most of the ethnic Polish population from Belarus and Ukraine during the Great Terror in 1937-1938, Ukrainian nationalists had hoped for an invasion from Poland to drive the Russians out. However, Poland signed a non-aggression pact with Stalin, destroying that hope. Then they looked to Germany for some intervention to relieve them, but the Nazis proved to be even worse than the Soviets. Hitler saw Ukrainians as subhumans to be eliminated or deported to make way for more superior German farmers. Hence, he kept Stalin's system of collectivized agriculture in place, leading, again, to widespread starvation. And he killed off much of the huge Jewish population in Ukraine, often with the help of non-Jewish Ukrainian nationals. Reprisals against Ukrainians were common whenever partisan activity hindered German operations, and Ukrainians were often used as human shields.

So, if you think Germany was not largely responsible for the offensive destruction of Ukraine during WWII, I think that you are wrong. They were primarily responsible for it, because much of the most destructive fighting took place in Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland. Much of the Soviet Red Army that conquered Germany was made of Ukrainians and Belarusians, who were glad to see the German occupiers pushed out, even if it meant a return of the Russians. When Germans captured Soviet soldiers, a great many of whom were Ukrainian, they packed them into concentration camps and systematically starved them to death. I don't think that Germans feel an obligation to defend Ukraine. I think that they would rather forget what they did in Ukraine and what Soviet Ukrainians did to them in retaliation.

(My source for much of the above is Timothy Snyder's recently-published history called Bloodlands).

Bold: I do think this. I said as much in the post you’re quoting. I’m familiar with the history (at a Wikipedia depth) hence my comment about Germany feeling some sense of responsibility to now come to Ukraine’s aid. Apologies if I did not make myself clear.

It’s all well and fine for Germany to be a more passive nation given their history but underneath it all there is still right and wrong. And who is right and who is wrong in this war should be clear as day to every rational human being.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.

Hmm, to me it seems Russia has more troops in Ukraine than ever. I don't think they're running out at all.

I think Russian casualties as reported by Ukraine are grossly overestimated. For past several months, it's been 500-1000 KIA daily (and even more WIA). That's just not realistic. I'd believe maybe average of 100-200 per day.

I'm not talking about just troops. And frankly Russia is not fielding troops around Bakhmut. Much of Russia's trained forces have been devastated. What they are fielding now are poorly trained civilians and convicts who are thrown into a kill or be killed situation. For this reason it is not fair to judge opposing forces on a one to one basis. Ukrainian forces are trained. Beyond weapons and tactics training, Ukrainian troops I'm sure receive some training on controlling the urge to panic. I'm quite sure mobilized Russian forces receive nothing of the kind. Convicts get a gun in their hands and a gun in their back and ordered forward. The question in my mind is what number of untrained, panicked individuals does it take to overcome a well trained fighting force? Who's wearing down who here?
The convicts that are initially thrown at Ukrainian forces likely do little more than fatigue Ukrainian forces in the hopes that an overwhelming number of poorly trained mobilized civilians can get the job done.

They seem to be getting the job done just fine: Russia is advancing, Ukraine is not.

And the poor training of convicts is exactly my point. Russia is getting maybe higher numerical casualties, but they're low-quality cannon fodder that's easy to replace. Ukraine is losing trained and elite soldiers defending Bakhmut, who are not so expendable. From Russian point of view that's exactly what they want. And I don't see Wagner running out of convicts anytime soon. The real wagner fighters are not taking nearly as many casualties.

There's also the question of morale. Making gains, even small ones, has a huge impact on rest of the Russian force. And an opposite impact on Ukrainians. Ukraine needs to be able to figure out how to stop Wagner's advance, and push them back even. I'm not sure if just more weapons are even enough, they need better tactics, intelligence, and leadership also.

I’d really like to read your news sources.
“Getting the job done just fine”? They’ve spent bloody months taking meters of largely useless ground. Meters.

What we need to know but neither of us do is (for lack of a better term) the kill ratio between trained Ukrainian forces and untrained Russian. This information is somewhere in the bowels of the Pentagon and is used in the US and EU decision making process. We have rough estimates of Russian losses. That’s it.

As far as morale goes, I think it goes deeper than just winning or losing ground. There is also the “what are we fighting for” aspect of it and how well the fighters are cared for.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Large swarms of poorly lead, armed and trained draftees is not a winning strategy. But large numbers of conscripts with shovels digging trenches and bunkers might be a problem for Ukraine. A Russian stopgap measure. Don't give up ground easily.

 

[Copernicus]

CNN has a more thorough report, based on a Ukrainian intelligence report, on how Wagner operates and why they represent a unique threat.

Deadly and disposable: Wagner’s brutal tactics in Ukraine revealed by intelligence report​

 

[TV and credit cards]

Germany has decided to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries such as Poland to do so, the German magazine Spiegel reported on January 24.

Two U.S. officials told Reuters on January 24 that the United States, in a reversal, also appears to be dropping its opposition to sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and an announcement could come as soon as this week. There was no immediate reaction from the Pentagon.