How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

Germany has decided to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries such as Poland to do so, the German magazine Spiegel reported on January 24.

Two U.S. officials told Reuters on January 24 that the United States, in a reversal, also appears to be dropping its opposition to sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and an announcement could come as soon as this week. There was no immediate reaction from the Pentagon.

U.S. prepares to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine in major reversal for Biden administration

Just this past Friday, U.S. officials insisted Biden was not inclined to provide the tanks to Ukraine due to concerns over the difficulty in operating and maintaining them.

www.nbcnews.com

So yes, we're sending M-1's and the Germans are now cool with Leopard's going there as well.

But I'm not sure how useful they'll be. I'm not an armor officer (my father was though, alas he's passed, or I would really be calling him every day), but I understand that these are not your granddaddy's tank - get in and drive it and fire it. It takes extensive amount of training. I found the website for the Armor Basic Officer's Leader Course at Ft Benning Georgia and it indicates a 95 day program. I'm sure it can be compressed, and cancel the weekends off for the new guys, but still, would they be qualified by the time the Russian's role out a new offensive? Plus that only puts you at the Junior Officer level. I suspect that there are numerous follow on training requirements before one is truly qualified to take a platoon of tanks into combat - not to mention all of the men as well.

I suspect the German Leopards are not easy to use either. But maybe they have already had some training on those? I hope so.

Then there's the question of their effectiveness in modern combat - Russian tanks are not so poor compared to the Abrams are they? They got their asses kicked by drones and other devices since the start of the campaign. Will that be the fate of these Abrams and Leopards? Are they effectively just targets? Or have the Ukrainians degraded Russia's capabilities over the months that they can use them effectively now? Reports are coming in that Russia now fires only about 25% of the artillery that they were when they started. They're having serious issues - whether it's logistics, or destruction of their forces, or they're scared to fire.

IAE, give 'em hell, Ukraine!

 

[TV and credit cards]

Germany has decided to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries such as Poland to do so, the German magazine Spiegel reported on January 24.

Two U.S. officials told Reuters on January 24 that the United States, in a reversal, also appears to be dropping its opposition to sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and an announcement could come as soon as this week. There was no immediate reaction from the Pentagon.

U.S. prepares to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine in major reversal for Biden administration

Just this past Friday, U.S. officials insisted Biden was not inclined to provide the tanks to Ukraine due to concerns over the difficulty in operating and maintaining them.

www.nbcnews.com

So yes, we're sending M-1's and the Germans are now cool with Leopard's going there as well.

But I'm not sure how useful they'll be. I'm not an armor officer (my father was though, alas he's passed, or I would really be calling him every day), but I understand that these are not your granddaddy's tank - get in and drive it and fire it. It takes extensive amount of training. I found the website for the Armor Basic Officer's Leader Course at Ft Benning Georgia and it indicates a 95 day program. I'm sure it can be compressed, and cancel the weekends off for the new guys, but still, would they be qualified by the time the Russian's role out a new offensive? Plus that only puts you at the Junior Officer level. I suspect that there are numerous follow on training requirements before one is truly qualified to take a platoon of tanks into combat - not to mention all of the men as well.

I suspect the German Leopards are not easy to use either. But maybe they have already had some training on those? I hope so.

Then there's the question of their effectiveness in modern combat - Russian tanks are not so poor compared to the Abrams are they? They got their asses kicked by drones and other devices since the start of the campaign. Will that be the fate of these Abrams and Leopards? Are they effectively just targets? Or have the Ukrainians degraded Russia's capabilities over the months that they can use them effectively now? Reports are coming in that Russia now fires only about 25% of the artillery that they were when they started. They're having serious issues - whether it's logistics, or destruction of their forces, or they're scared to fire.

IAE, give 'em hell, Ukraine!

I heard Senator Blumenthal talking about the urgency of getting tanks there soonest and having a compressed training schedule. As far as their effectiveness goes, I'll have to defer to the military minds of the Pentagon. I'm not knowledgeable about tanks and how much of a role they play. I'm sure they're not just giving them up because Ukraine wants them. If they could not play an integral role, Ukraine would be dissuaded. Frankly I thought the Bradleys would be adequate.

I think most of the armament that is coming to Ukraine is preparation for an expected Spring offensive by Russia. It's likely Russia can not put together anything meaningful any sooner than that.

 

[Jayjay]

I know Poland was more direct about wanting to send tanks but I would prefer Germany make more of a blanket statement that they "will not block other countries from sending Leopard tanks". Europe needs to take decisive action. They seem to be forever dragging their feet on putting an end to this conflict. Russia has little more than "meat" to throw at Ukrainian forces. Russia has spent down their forces to a dangerously low level. The time is now.

Hmm, to me it seems Russia has more troops in Ukraine than ever. I don't think they're running out at all.

I think Russian casualties as reported by Ukraine are grossly overestimated. For past several months, it's been 500-1000 KIA daily (and even more WIA). That's just not realistic. I'd believe maybe average of 100-200 per day.

I'm not talking about just troops. And frankly Russia is not fielding troops around Bakhmut. Much of Russia's trained forces have been devastated. What they are fielding now are poorly trained civilians and convicts who are thrown into a kill or be killed situation. For this reason it is not fair to judge opposing forces on a one to one basis. Ukrainian forces are trained. Beyond weapons and tactics training, Ukrainian troops I'm sure receive some training on controlling the urge to panic. I'm quite sure mobilized Russian forces receive nothing of the kind. Convicts get a gun in their hands and a gun in their back and ordered forward. The question in my mind is what number of untrained, panicked individuals does it take to overcome a well trained fighting force? Who's wearing down who here?
The convicts that are initially thrown at Ukrainian forces likely do little more than fatigue Ukrainian forces in the hopes that an overwhelming number of poorly trained mobilized civilians can get the job done.

They seem to be getting the job done just fine: Russia is advancing, Ukraine is not.

And the poor training of convicts is exactly my point. Russia is getting maybe higher numerical casualties, but they're low-quality cannon fodder that's easy to replace. Ukraine is losing trained and elite soldiers defending Bakhmut, who are not so expendable. From Russian point of view that's exactly what they want. And I don't see Wagner running out of convicts anytime soon. The real wagner fighters are not taking nearly as many casualties.

There's also the question of morale. Making gains, even small ones, has a huge impact on rest of the Russian force. And an opposite impact on Ukrainians. Ukraine needs to be able to figure out how to stop Wagner's advance, and push them back even. I'm not sure if just more weapons are even enough, they need better tactics, intelligence, and leadership also.

But they’re not so easily replaced. Wagner can only get so many convicts to use like that. They aren’t just signing up in droves to be slaughtered. Nor do they have that many trained elite to back them up. It’s a myth. They only had a core of 6 - 7,000 fighters to start this war. and a lot are now casualties. Furthermore even cannon fodder need to be adequately supplied. Wagner has to rely on the same supply lines the Russian Army does. And they suck.

Splitting this to a few parts.

First, are there really that many casualties among Wagner apart from the convicts? We don't really know. There have been incidents where Wagner HQs and troop concentrations have been hit behind the front lines, which might amount to hundreds of casualties. And there's the usual attrition. But they're an elite force and they wouldn't be sent to die like regular soldiers. Also, they've been recruiting since the war began, and it's possible they got to pick the cream of the crop from candidates with prior experience and motivation.

Second, let's say the number of actual fighters has diminished to the point that they can't do the same kind of attacks they did earlier in the war, and are forced to use convicts and mobiks. But there are still competent people there, who tell the convicts and mobiks what to do and where to attack. When the convicts get mowed down, they are replaced, but the people running them are not facing attrition and the overall capability is not diminished. They can keep going as long as they have cannon fodder for the infantry waves, and Ukraine can't dent their artillery.

Third, it's not just about logistics. It's also that wagner doesn't suffer from the soviet-style bureaucracy of the regular army. They are a more flexible organization and can use "common sense" in their planning and execution.

Morale is a Russian problem, not a Ukrainian one. The Russians don’t want to be there.

The wagnerites do want to be there. Many of them are ideologically motivated, not just contract soldiers who hoped they could get paid guarding the gate in some remote base in Murmansk. They signed up because they wanted to fight. And as long as they're winning, morale is likely to be high.

And it doesn’t matter how many troops they have - if they don’t fight, they’re useless, worse than useless as they are a potential security threat. Ukraine does have a lot of issues, including training, and more weapons and people. But they’re getting good intel from us. Some of it real time. Their leadership is also getting support from American And other NATO advisors, some even on the ground with them. Furthermore, Russia has to do more than advance, they also have to hold ground. That too sucks up troops.

But that can be done by the regular army with less training.

Finally, Ukraine can afford to lose some ground, as long as it inflicts massive casualties on the Russians. It’s not a two way war of attrition. Remember, the Germans made amazing gains against western Allies in 1918. A lot of fucking good it did them. They did it again in the Ardennes in 1944. Wow! They pushed the Allies back into Belgium. Held us up for three or four weeks. Spring brought a different story.

In the end the Russians might, MIGHT, capture Bakhmut. But even if they do, they’ll have trouble holding it, and it will be a hollow victory. They’ll have spent their wad and only set themselves up for an even bigger failure in the end.

If Bakhmut is hard to capture, then it'll be hard for Ukraine to recapture it also. And it's not like Wagner will stop at Bakhmut. They'll use the same tactics to get to the next town, and the next one after that, until they're stopped or they run out of steam. I don't see the latter happening anytime soon.

 

[Jayjay]

They seem to be getting the job done just fine: Russia is advancing, Ukraine is not.

And the poor training of convicts is exactly my point. Russia is getting maybe higher numerical casualties, but they're low-quality cannon fodder that's easy to replace. Ukraine is losing trained and elite soldiers defending Bakhmut, who are not so expendable. From Russian point of view that's exactly what they want. And I don't see Wagner running out of convicts anytime soon. The real wagner fighters are not taking nearly as many casualties.

There's also the question of morale. Making gains, even small ones, has a huge impact on rest of the Russian force. And an opposite impact on Ukrainians. Ukraine needs to be able to figure out how to stop Wagner's advance, and push them back even. I'm not sure if just more weapons are even enough, they need better tactics, intelligence, and leadership also.

I’d really like to read your news sources.

Random places here and there. Most recently:

Manpower, Materiel, and the Coming Decisive Phase in Ukraine - War on the Rocks

In his latest discussion with Ryan on the war in Ukraine, Mike Kofman explains why the coming spring and summer will be strategically decisive. He also

warontherocks.com

“Getting the job done just fine”? They’ve spent bloody months taking meters of largely useless ground. Meters.

Not meters, but kilometers. Over 10km at some points of the frontline. I wouldn't call the ground useless, Bakhmut and Soledar allow further advances North and West. Here is a screenshot comparison of deepstate map from today and two months ago:



I think there is clear progress. And it's not a case of Ukraine and Russia going back and forth, or that Ukraine has made gains elsewhere. It's just Russia advancing, Ukraine sometimes repelling the attacks and sometimes not.

What we need to know but neither of us do is (for lack of a better term) the kill ratio between trained Ukrainian forces and untrained Russian. This information is somewhere in the bowels of the Pentagon and is used in the US and EU decision making process. We have rough estimates of Russian losses. That’s it.

As far as morale goes, I think it goes deeper than just winning or losing ground. There is also the “what are we fighting for” aspect of it and how well the fighters are cared for.

And there are huge differences between different kinds of units in the Russian side. Wagner fuckers are the worst of the lot.

 

[barbos]

Arestovich was fired (or forced Elensky to fire him) and started talking.
Interesting how he basically repeats russian "propaganda" now.
And former polish foreign minister (married to US neocon cunt) talks again, confirming everything russian "propaganda" have been saying for ages. Current polish government clowns are not very happy.
Amazing how cunts which are no longer employed (by "free" world government) suddenly become kinda pro-russian.

Also, there is suspiciously large amount of changes in UkroReich central government. Lots of people left it, lots were fired.

 

[Patooka]

Arestovich was fired (or forced Elensky to fire him) and started talking.
Interesting how he basically repeats russian "propaganda" now.
And former polish foreign minister (married to US neocon cunt) talks again, confirming everything russian "propaganda" have been saying for ages. Current polish government clowns are not very happy.
Amazing how cunts which are no longer employed (by "free" world government) suddenly become kinda pro-russian.

Also, there is suspiciously large amount of changes in UkroReich central government. Lots of people left it, lots were fired.

As usual with barbos incoherent posts, the reality is much different.
Firstly, the reason barbos doesn't quote Oleksiy Arestovych repeating Russian propaganda is because he has said nothing of the sort.

The reason he doesn't name "Former Polish foreign minister now cunt husband" is because then you could verify what barbos is saying. The minister in question incidentally is Radosław Sikorski is the only news outlet reporting this is surprise surprise, Russia Today. The truth is a little more nuanced.

According to a Russia Today report, he was asked in an interview to Radio ZET on Monday if the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) government had ever entertained the idea of dividing up Ukraine, to which Sikorski replied, “There was a moment of hesitation in the first 10 days of the war, when we all didn’t know how it would go, that maybe Ukraine would fall.”

“Had it not been for the heroism of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and the help of the West, things could have been different,” Sikorski was further quoted as saying.

Amazing what a little context adds to what I'm going to call a barbosism. But I love how barbos believes that the Ukraine cabinet reshuffle is proof of nazi zombies despite keeping the jew in charge.

Either way my thoughts and prayers are for barbos finding the "z" key on his keyboard so can spell Zelensky properly one day.

 

[barbos]

As usual with barbos incoherent posts, the reality is much different.
Firstly, the reason barbos doesn't quote Oleksiy Arestovych repeating Russian propaganda is because he has said nothing of the sort.

As usual, you are projecting.

 

[Patooka]

As usual with barbos incoherent posts, the reality is much different.
Firstly, the reason barbos doesn't quote Oleksiy Arestovych repeating Russian propaganda is because he has said nothing of the sort.

As usual, you are projecting.

I'd ask you to prove it but...well we all know how likely that is for you backing up claims with actual evidence now.

 

[barbos]

In other news Henry Kissinger has finally succumbed to dementia. Well, at least it looks that way.

 

[barbos]

As usual with barbos incoherent posts, the reality is much different.
Firstly, the reason barbos doesn't quote Oleksiy Arestovych repeating Russian propaganda is because he has said nothing of the sort.

As usual, you are projecting.

I'd ask you to prove it but...well we all know how likely that is for you backing up claims with actual evidence now.

LOL, no. You do you homework.

 

[Patooka]

LOL, no. You do you homework.

Let's go through the chronology;

You post some borderline coherent pro Russia rant here.
I refute it and link to the article that proves barbos is wrong here (i.e "did homework")
You then rant about my lack of homework and still won't source your claims. My homework is quite literally above you bloviating about homework.

This is my fault. I tried to engage in a conversation with you in good faith when I really should know better by now. I've got no one to blame but myself. Good luck with your nazi zombies and refusal to spell Zelensky's name properly.

 

[Copernicus]

LOL, no. You do you homework.

Let's go through the chronology;

You post some borderline coherent pro Russia rant here.
I refute it and link to the article that proves barbos is wrong here (i.e "did homework")
You then rant about my lack of homework and still won't source your claims. My homework is quite literally above you bloviating about homework.

This is my fault. I tried to engage in a conversation with you in good faith when I really should know better by now. I've got no one to blame but myself. Good luck with your nazi zombies and refusal to spell Zelensky's name properly.

One of the greatest favors that barbos can do for you is to put you on his ignore list, because then you don't get hooked into trying to engage him in a rational discussion that is never going to happen. It is better to be a spectator of, rather than a participant in, those conversations. I find that it is far more informative to read RT, whose English language pages, at least, make an effort to try to make the Kremlin line sound rational. The Russian versions of the same stories, when they even exist, can be very different, because they are tailored to a different audience--one that is more likely to be sympathetic to Kremlin talking points. However, if I am going to read biased material on the progress of the war, I far prefer the Kyiv Post, which is far more truthful and informative.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Most Wagner group soldiers dead, wounded, deserted, captured.

....
Olga Romanova, head of the Rus Seated charity foundation, said in a YouTube video published by the My Russian Rights project that the private military company (PMC) headed by Russian financier and longtime Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin had recruited in the range of 42,000 to 43,000 prisoners by the end of last year.

That tally has most likely surpassed 50,000 fighters in the present state of the war, she said, according to a translation from news outlet Meduza. But of those approximate 50,000 soldiers, only "10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed...or missing, or deserted, or surrendered."
.....

Most of Wagner prisoner fighters are dead or deserted after Soledar: Report

The mercenary group has reportedly sent empty coffins to members' loved ones, even if the fighters are not confirmed dead.

www.newsweek.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

About Leopard Tanks
Who has them. How many should go. A new ammunition stream for dwindling artillery stock.

There's No Way Out of Here
Russia considers tightening up the borders. No worries though. It won't apply to passenger traffic. Won't go in to effect until September. So when the next mobilization happens, you'll still be able to Run Like Hell. Trust us. We're from the government.

All is Lost
If you want something a bit more challenging than the gibberish that occasions these pages, try Stephen Bryen of the Asia Times.

 

[Harry Bosch]

In other news Henry Kissinger has finally succumbed to dementia. Well, at least it looks that way.

I'm not so sure. I agree with you that it's probably wishful thinking hoping that Russia would want peace in the future. I think that the vile thugs running Russia also want the Baltics, Moltova, Poland, and other countries that used to belong to Russia.

However, I do think that Kissinger's idea of Ukraine give up the areas that were effectively under Russian control a year ago (Crimea, eastern Donbas) in exchange for NATO membership has some merit. It appears to me that a stalemate is coming. Unfortunately,
western support isn’t going to be infinite, and they’d likely struggle without it. I think many Ukrainians would grudgingly accept trading land for peace with Russia. Putler would get to claim a victory in Russia for liberating the areas he basically controlled anyway, and the rest of Ukraine could be confident he could never invade again. In exchange, the West could start a Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Build it back up with substantial and deep economic development. Europe still needs gas. Maybe fully develop the gas fields near Kiev to sell to Europe. There is a path out of this conflict. But agree with Barbos, that Russia doesn't really want peace right now. So, it's probably futile to discuss.

 

[Harry Bosch]

About Leopard Tanks
Who has them. How many should go. A new ammunition stream for dwindling artillery stock.

There's No Way Out of Here
Russia considers tightening up the borders. No worries though. It won't apply to passenger traffic. Won't go in to effect until September. So when the next mobilization happens, you'll still be able to Run Like Hell. Trust us. We're from the government.

All is Lost
If you want something a bit more challenging than the gibberish that occasions these pages, try Stephen Bryen of the Asia Times.

That was a very good article from Stephen Breyen. I need more time to digest it. But one part stuck out:

"While Ukraine is far away, the Russians see NATO’s “ganging up” on Russia as a key issue for Russian security and stability. This brings the Baltic region into sharper focus because Russians see NATO trying to surround them and undercut their economic and military advantages."

Well, fuck yea. We are ganging up to try to stop the war. What choice does the west have? If Nato pulled out of the Baltics, they would be rapidly attacked. No sovereign country wants Russians in their country raping their women, pillaging their property, stealing them blind. It is Russia that is pushing countries to gang up against Russia for their own protection.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

"While Ukraine is far away, the Russians see NATO’s “ganging up” on Russia as a key issue for Russian security and stability. This brings the Baltic region into sharper focus because Russians see NATO trying to surround them and undercut their economic and military advantages."

Well, fuck yea. We are ganging up to try to stop the war. What choice does the west have? If Nato pulled out of the Baltics, they would be rapidly attacked. No sovereign country wants Russians in their country raping their women, pillaging their property, stealing them blind. It is Russia that is pushing countries to gang up against Russia for their own protection.

The Ruski gangsters know why the democratic west is united against them. They just like playing the fool for the sake of public consumption.

 

[ZiprHead]

Most Wagner group soldiers dead, wounded, deserted, captured.

....
Olga Romanova, head of the Rus Seated charity foundation, said in a YouTube video published by the My Russian Rights project that the private military company (PMC) headed by Russian financier and longtime Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin had recruited in the range of 42,000 to 43,000 prisoners by the end of last year.

That tally has most likely surpassed 50,000 fighters in the present state of the war, she said, according to a translation from news outlet Meduza. But of those approximate 50,000 soldiers, only "10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed...or missing, or deserted, or surrendered."
.....

Most of Wagner prisoner fighters are dead or deserted after Soledar: Report

The mercenary group has reportedly sent empty coffins to members' loved ones, even if the fighters are not confirmed dead.

www.newsweek.com

Malcolm Nance said they have a pretty good idea of the number of Russian casualties because they just leave them where they died.

 

[SLD]

Colbert tonight: For the first time ever someone said: “Good news! The German tanks are rolling!”

 

[SLD]

Most Wagner group soldiers dead, wounded, deserted, captured.

....
Olga Romanova, head of the Rus Seated charity foundation, said in a YouTube video published by the My Russian Rights project that the private military company (PMC) headed by Russian financier and longtime Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin had recruited in the range of 42,000 to 43,000 prisoners by the end of last year.

That tally has most likely surpassed 50,000 fighters in the present state of the war, she said, according to a translation from news outlet Meduza. But of those approximate 50,000 soldiers, only "10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed...or missing, or deserted, or surrendered."
.....

Most of Wagner prisoner fighters are dead or deserted after Soledar: Report

The mercenary group has reportedly sent empty coffins to members' loved ones, even if the fighters are not confirmed dead.

www.newsweek.com

Malcolm Nance said they have a pretty good idea of the number of Russian casualties because they just leave them where they died.

An 80% casualty rate will suck the oxygen right out of your offensive immediately.