Who Are The Real Child Molesters

[ZiprHead]

The author of this webpage took media reports of child molestation and made a demographic breakdown of who is actually committing child sex crimes. You may find the results surprising or you may be completely unsurprised. The basic breakdown is in this graph but there's much more available data at the site.

Who's Making News?

Tracking News Reporting of Sex Crimes Against Minors

www.whoismakingnews.com

 

[Derec]

Deliberately misleading graph. Also, what webpage? Where is the link?

Given that transgender people and drag queens constitute a very small fraction of the population, their bars will necessarily be tiny if looking at raw numbers. This is a very common tactic for misleading statistics btw.

What is more relevant are conditional probabilities/frequencies: P(molestation|trans) and P(molestation|drag) as compared with P(molestation|¬trans) and P(molestation|¬drag). Given the very small P(trans) and P(drag), those latter two can be approximated as P(molestation).

 

[TomC]

is actually committing child sex crimes.

What does this mean?
People convicted? Accused? Vague anecdotes about recollections?
Tom

 

[Toni]

It makes sense that people who have trusted access to children are more likely to be the ones who molest children. Some individuals cultivate that trust specifically to gain access to children.

It also makes sense that people who are well known or at least well known within the community are both more likely to be protected from discovery and more likely to make headlines when their victims report.

 

[Elixir]

What does this mean?

It means we need to crack down on drag queens. That’s what everything means - to 2023 Republican politicians.

 

[laughing dog]

Deliberately misleading graph. Also, what webpage? Where is the link?

Given that transgender people and drag queens constitute a very small fraction of the population, their bars will necessarily be tiny if looking at raw numbers. This is a very common tactic for misleading statistics btw.

What is more relevant are conditional probabilities/frequencies: P(molestation|trans) and P(molestation|drag) as compared with P(molestation|¬trans) and P(molestation|¬drag). Given the very small P(trans) and P(drag), those latter two can be approximated as P(molestation).

Whether a graph or statistic is misleading depends on the intended use or purpose of it.

Since there is no bar at all for drag queens, it doesn’t matter what their share of the population: zero is zero.

It would be nice to have a link to the source.

 

[ZiprHead]

Deliberately misleading graph. Also, what webpage? Where is the link?

Oops. Sorry. I'll edit.

Done. Again apologies.

 

[ideologyhunter]

The real story is the one you won't find on MSNBC: a total of 1.5 million Third World children taken to America by the planning of the Gang of Four (Hillary, Pelosi, Rachel Maddow and Michael Moore) and sold into bondage and sex trade. 3.8 million of these children were channeled into the Dark World at Comet Ping Pong Pizza. Another 6.7 million of them were kept at 1633 Broadway, Fifth Floor (The Clinton Foundation.) A "reserve supply" of 1.4 million are being held at the Eleanor Roosevelt cottage (Val-KILL) at Hyde Park. It all adds up -- doesn't it? Wake up, America.
Source: Bushmaster Bible News

 

[Gospel]

Deliberately misleading graph. Also, what webpage? Where is the link?

Given that transgender people and drag queens constitute a very small fraction of the population, their bars will necessarily be tiny if looking at raw numbers. This is a very common tactic for misleading statistics btw.

What is more relevant are conditional probabilities/frequencies: P(molestation|trans) and P(molestation|drag) as compared with P(molestation|¬trans) and P(molestation|¬drag). Given the very small P(trans) and P(drag), those latter two can be approximated as P(molestation).

Fallacy of relative privation.

 

[ZiprHead]

The real story is the one you won't find on MSNBC: a total of 1.5 million Third World children taken to America by the planning of the Gang of Four (Hillary, Pelosi, Rachel Maddow and Michael Moore) and sold into bondage and sex trade. 3.8 million of these children were channeled into the Dark World at Comet Ping Pong Pizza. Another 6.7 million of them were kept at 1633 Broadway, Fifth Floor (The Clinton Foundation.) A "reserve supply" of 1.4 million are being held at the Eleanor Roosevelt cottage (Val-KILL) at Hyde Park. It all adds up -- doesn't it? Wake up, America.
Source: Bushmaster Bible News

Adrenochrome cocktails for everybody!

 

[DrZoidberg]

The author of this webpage took media reports of child molestation and made a demographic breakdown of who is actually committing child sex crimes. You may find the results surprising or you may be completely unsurprised. The basic breakdown is in this graph but there's much more available data at the site.

View attachment 43718

Who's Making News?

Tracking News Reporting of Sex Crimes Against Minors

www.whoismakingnews.com

Statistics like this is worthless. It measures the people who got caught. There's no way of knowing what we're actually measuring.

It's one of those things where the social impacts are what we're really measuring.

Examples are, the less shameful it is to commit suicide the more likely doctors are to label a death as a suicide, rendering the statistic worthless.

Rape measures a willingness of a victim to report rape, more than the actual rape occuring.

We have no idea how common either suicide or rape is in any culture. Because both are so taboo and culturally infected. Child molestation fits into this category as well.

 

[TomC]

Statistics like this is worthless. It measures the people who got caught. There's no way of knowing what we're actually measuring.

I wouldn't say worthless, but they aren't impressively rigorous, quite the opposite. Being a trans woman herself doesn't suggest a particularly even handed approach either.

In broad strokes though, she makes an important point. Drag and trans folks aren't particularly a danger to children. Despite all the uproar, they just aren't.
Tom

 

[DrZoidberg]

Statistics like this is worthless. It measures the people who got caught. There's no way of knowing what we're actually measuring.

I wouldn't say worthless, but they aren't impressively rigorous, quite the opposite. Being a trans woman herself doesn't suggest a particularly even handed approach either.

In broad strokes though, she makes an important point. Drag and trans folks aren't particularly a danger to children. Despite all the uproar, they just aren't.
Tom

But that debate is just the TERF, utter bollocks, debate. It's just layers upon layers of nonsense. People who are trans is such a tiny minority, good luck constructing any meaningful statistics from that. Add to that the lefts awful habit of harrassing anyone with the merest whiff of non-sanctioned progressive views, branding them as heretics, aka just-as-bad-as-Hitler. And the rights bad habit of arguing from do-you-know-what-steve-heard-trans-people-do type arguments. It's all nonsense. There's no side in this debate that is remotely sensible.

 

[scombrid]

The author of this webpage took media reports of child molestation and made a demographic breakdown of who is actually committing child sex crimes. You may find the results surprising or you may be completely unsurprised. The basic breakdown is in this graph but there's much more available data at the site.

View attachment 43718

Who's Making News?

Tracking News Reporting of Sex Crimes Against Minors

www.whoismakingnews.com

Statistics like this is worthless. It measures the people who got caught. There's no way of knowing what we're actually measuring.

It's one of those things where the social impacts are what we're really measuring.

Examples are, the less shameful it is to commit suicide the more likely doctors are to label a death as a suicide, rendering the statistic worthless.

Rape measures a willingness of a victim to report rape, more than the actual rape occuring.

We have no idea how common either suicide or rape is in any culture. Because both are so taboo and culturally infected. Child molestation fits into this category as well.

I'm comfortable comparing among groups here under an assumption that the rate of getting caught isn't substantially different among groups. Heck, given the nature of families and churches to sweep the dirt under the rug I'd be more apt to think that groups other than family and church are over represented.

 

[DrZoidberg]

The author of this webpage took media reports of child molestation and made a demographic breakdown of who is actually committing child sex crimes. You may find the results surprising or you may be completely unsurprised. The basic breakdown is in this graph but there's much more available data at the site.

View attachment 43718

Who's Making News?

Tracking News Reporting of Sex Crimes Against Minors

www.whoismakingnews.com

Statistics like this is worthless. It measures the people who got caught. There's no way of knowing what we're actually measuring.

It's one of those things where the social impacts are what we're really measuring.

Examples are, the less shameful it is to commit suicide the more likely doctors are to label a death as a suicide, rendering the statistic worthless.

Rape measures a willingness of a victim to report rape, more than the actual rape occuring.

We have no idea how common either suicide or rape is in any culture. Because both are so taboo and culturally infected. Child molestation fits into this category as well.

I'm comfortable comparing among groups here under an assumption that the rate of getting caught isn't substantially different among groups. Heck, given the nature of families and churches to sweep the dirt under the rug I'd be more apt to think that groups other than family and church are over represented.

Unfortunately your comfort level is not an acceptable qualifier when doing sociological research. In 2010 there was a huge jump in the numbers of rapes in Sweden, this number stayed at the same higher level until now. Sweden then became famous as the rape capital of the world and lots of TV panel discussion shows around the world were discussing what had changed in Sweden, and if the immigrants really were to blame.

What had happened in 2010 is that BRÅ (the crime statistics agency) changed how they defined rape and counted rape. There might have been huge jump in rapes in 2010. But probably not. Most significantly, they changed how rape was counted within a relationship, ie domestic abuse. Earlier when a spouse accused an abusive partner of rape inside the relationship and took him (it's always a "him") to court before 2010 this counted as one rape, because it was one rape court case. After 2010 they counted every single time an abused woman had been raped in the relationship (and won in the court case). This is by far the most common occurance of rape and therefore had a huge impact on the statistic. It should be further noted that in most places around the world, rape within a relationship is not counted at all, because it's not considered a crime. Are these places paragons of female safety or the opposite? According to rape statstics; yes they are.

Just raw numbers for rape statistics are worthless. They're worse than worthless, because they trick us into thinking it means something. It's only valuable to researchers in the field.

 

[scombrid]

I wouldn’t build a model predicting rates from these data. I think they are sufficient for a less powerful hypothesis test for a difference in rates of pedophilic abuse between groups.

 

[scombrid]

If trans people, cross dressers, gays, or any other group on the conservative pedo list were abusing kids or engaging in the grooming, trafficking, and everything else they are accused then it would stand out in the raw data. It does not. Fail to reject null.

 

[scombrid]

And I’m not talking about rape or rape definitions. I am talking about the specific assumptions underlying these particular data.

 

[Gospel]

These figures bring to light the incongruity of religious individuals casting aspersions on transgender people as pedophiles, as if this disconcerting trait is their exclusive domain.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I wouldn’t build a model predicting rates from these data. I think they are sufficient for a less powerful hypothesis test for a difference in rates of pedophilic abuse between groups.

Child molestation is a rare crime. Being transgendered is another rare thing. Correlating two rare outliers statistically is a complete waste of time. Even if the numbers correlate, it tells us nothing. And who the fuck cares if they do? What are we supposed to do with that information? There's nothing here we can use to act on, no matter how much we want to protect children. A parent who cares about the safety of their children should perhaps focus on more immediate threats like keeping it away from live wires and traffic.