Merged Gaza just launched an unprovoked attack on Israel

[Loren Pechtel]

Israeli action do not breed terrorists, Iranian money breeds terrorists.

How is slaughtering 17,000 children supposed to stop Iranian money? It's had quite the opposite effect in practice. The inhuman actions you endorse with so little thought are practically printing their propaganda for them, and the fundraising is pouring in by the billions. When shocked parents are stumbling through the streets with their children's disembodied heads, they don't even have to write the words "No solution but jihad" below the photo, the caption is just situationally implied. You're just doing free recruiting for the enemy at that point. Those kind of images don't make people scared, they make them furious. That's exactly why the Palestinian Authority did what they did, they knew it would provoke a usedul overreaction and both fund and motivate the next century of pointless, bloody war.

Where's your compassion for the Israeli women and children raped and tortured throughout this?

I think their deaths are an unthinkable tragedy.

I don't believe most of them had any part in this political struggle being waged around them, that took their lives so suddenly and unjustly. Nor that they would wish for thousands more children to be killed in their name. You have a funny way of honoring their memory, if you think providing capital to fund the killing of more innocents grants any peace at all to their souls.

It's not about bringing peace to their souls. It's about avoiding having more of them in the future.

This war produced about a 20:1 casualty ratio. Iran won't mind that and would be happy to do it again.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Just because there wasn't the degree of trouble here as there doesn't mean they would feel safe. History is full of times of temporary safety for the Jews that in a generation or two became unsafe. We had a track record of being bad to them, they would have no reason to trust that times would be forever good going forward.

Let's be real here... there was NO place that had a track record of being good to the jews.

Exactly. That's why they were determined to make a place that would have such a record going forward.

 

[Swammerdami]

This war produced about a 20:1 casualty ratio. Iran won't mind that and would be happy to do it again.

Nitpick: The 25:1 ratio in deaths due to traumatic injury (closer to 30:1 when Israeli killings in West Bank and Syria are included) tells only part of the story. An estimated 150,000+ Gazans have died INDIRECTLY from the current War, e.g. due to lack of medicine or food. IOW the war has killed 8% of the population of Gaza.

I hope you "need a cite" for the 150,000+ figure. It will demonstrate your utter ignorance about this inhumane war.

 

[Derec]

An estimated 150,000+ Gazans have died INDIRECTLY from the current War, eg due to lack of medicine or food. IOW the war has killed 8% of the population of Gaza.

The 150k figure is a guess, and I do not think it's a particularly realistic one. The ceasefire has been going on for a week now, and if there were 150k extra corpses lying around - a figure three times the official number for war fatalities from the Gaza Health Ministry - don't you think they would have turned up by now?

I hope you "need a cite" for the 150,000+ figure. It will demonstrate your utter ignorance about this inhumane war.

Yeah, I think I will need that citation. Not because it would confirm the figure, but just to see who is making that particular guess.

 

[Derec]

There will be thousands more dead children, "Muslim" and "Jew" alike.

Jewish ones to large extent because of all the released terrorists and because this ceasefire deal makes future hostage taking by Palestinian terrorists more likely because it proved successful.

 

[Derec]

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of its war with Israel, according to two congressional sources briefed on U.S. intelligence, suggesting the Iran-backed fighters could remain a persistent threat to Israel.

This excerpts admits that it is an estimate.
Let me quite more:

The intelligence indicates a similar number of Hamas fighters have been killed during that period, the sources said. The latest official U.S. estimates have not been previously reported.

Hamas only or Hamas plus allies? If Hamas only, it could be accurate.
IDF estimates ~17k dead fighters a few months ago, and there has been fierce fighting since then. >20k is a reasonable estimate for the death tally across all the factions.

The sources briefed on the intelligence, which was included in a series of updates from U.S. intelligence agencies in the final weeks of the Biden administration, said that while Hamas has successfully recruited new members, many are young and untrained and are being used for simple security purposes.

That is crucial. They would not be much of a problem if the fighting was still going on. But now they can be trained and equipped.

On Jan. 14, then-President Joe Biden's Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States believed Hamas had recruited almost as many fighters as it had lost in the Palestinian enclave, cautioning that this was a "recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war."
He did not provide further details about the assessment, but Israeli figures have put the total militant death toll in Gaza at around 20,000.

I think the number of new recruits is lower than this estimate, but in any case, there is a limit. There are only about 500k military age males in Gaza. How many of them would make good fighters? I say no more than ~15%. Which means that Hamas et al are already bumping up on that number. If the war were to go on another year and they lose 15k more people, what kind of recruits can they replace them with?

Huh. Well now how did that happen? Betcha a year from now Hamas is stronger than they were a year ago.

A year ago they were already in the middle of getting pounded. Did you mean before 10/7?
I think they will be far weaker in January 2026 than they were in October 2023.
They lost >20k trained fighters, and got maybe 10k untrained recruits, many of them 14-16 year old teens.
They lost many senior officers, not just top commanders like Sinwar and Deif, but also quite a few brigade and battalion commanders (although one of them unfortunately "resurrected").
Their tunnel network is largely destroyed.
The resupply with weapons will be more difficult with the loss of Syria and IDF controlling the Philadelphi Corridor.

[Edited for tags]

 

[Derec]

I wonder what released Palestinian hostages

Hostages? You mean prisoners. Terrorists. Many of whom (121 out of 200 released this weekend) were serving life in prison for killing people.
You can't compare them to hostages.

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

[Three of the released prisoners] were accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a crowded pool hall near Tel Aviv in 2002 that killed 15 people. Later that year, they were found to have orchestrated a bombing at Hebrew University that killed nine people, including five American students. Israel had described Odeh, who was working as a painter at the university at the time, as the kingpin in the attack.

I repeat this again. This was a very bad deal.

 

[Arctish]

I wonder what released Palestinian hostages

Hostages? You mean prisoners. Terrorists. Many of whom (121 out of 200 released this weekend) were serving life in prison for killing people.
You can't compare them to hostages.

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

[Three of the released prisoners] were accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a crowded pool hall near Tel Aviv in 2002 that killed 15 people. Later that year, they were found to have orchestrated a bombing at Hebrew University that killed nine people, including five American students. Israel had described Odeh, who was working as a painter at the university at the time, as the kingpin in the attack.

I repeat this again. This was a very bad deal.

The hostage/prisoner exchange is only the most visible part of the deal. I'm certain there were a few backroom handshakes and hidden clauses as well, perhaps with Qatar, Jordan, and Iran. I doubt Netanyahu was pressured into a deal that would thwart his long term goals, even if he had to let some high profile terrorists return to Gaza or go into exile.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I wonder what released Palestinian hostages

Hostages? You mean prisoners. Terrorists. Many of whom (121 out of 200 released this weekend) were serving life in prison for killing people.
You can't compare them to hostages.

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

[Three of the released prisoners] were accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a crowded pool hall near Tel Aviv in 2002 that killed 15 people. Later that year, they were found to have orchestrated a bombing at Hebrew University that killed nine people, including five American students. Israel had described Odeh, who was working as a painter at the university at the time, as the kingpin in the attack.

I repeat this again. This was a very bad deal.

Prisoners convicted by an Israeli court system condemned by the United Nations for unfair trials. Prisoners? Yes. They are in prison.

A people who's lands are regularly taken from them and have no due process in the courts (or media) for some 57 years by the UN's telling. 57 years of being shit on. You, your father, your father's father. Can't imagine that's going to draw many recruits, huh? And by the way, your comparison of Russian recruits to Hamas recruits is rather broad. You seem to be including in your definition everyone, from being dragged in off the street to everyone walking in off the street. Seriously, when you consider the overall treatment of Palestine by Israel, I would more liken Hamas recruits to Ukrainian recruits.

 

[Swammerdami]

An estimated 150,000+ Gazans have died INDIRECTLY from the current War, eg due to lack of medicine or food. IOW the war has killed 8% of the population of Gaza.

The 150k figure is a guess, and I do not think it's a particularly realistic one. The ceasefire has been going on for a week now, and if there were 150k extra corpses lying around - a figure three times the official number for war fatalities from the Gaza Health Ministry - don't you think they would have turned up by now?

I hope you "need a cite" for the 150,000+ figure. It will demonstrate your utter ignorance about this inhumane war.

Yeah, I think I will need that citation. Not because it would confirm the figure, but just to see who is making that particular guess.

Sheeesh. I had to go all the way to Wikipedia for some cites. Even that was too hard for you?
This paper's co-authors include Professor Martin McKee CBE (see below), Salim Yusuf (see below) and Rasha Khatib
and "Scientists are closing in on the true, horrifying scale of death and disease in Gaza" by Professor Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh

I've excerpted some bio info for two of the authors below. /SARCASM ON: They sure sound like Jew-hating jihadists to me!!!

Martin McKee created the European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition in 1997 with Professor David Leon, a WHO Collaborating Centre comprising a team of researchers working primarily on health and health policy in central and eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. He is also research director of the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, a partnership of universities, national and regional governments, international agencies and was President of the European Public Health Association between 2014 and 2016. In September 2021 he was elected as President Elect of the British Medical Association. He has published over 1300 scientific papers and 50 books, was an editor of the European Journal of Public Health for 15 years.

[Salim Yusuf] formerly served as president of the World Heart Federation.
... In 2011, he was the world's second-most-cited cardiology researcher, and in 2020, he was the world's most-cited cardiology researcher.... He was a past president of the World Heart Federation 2015–2016. ... In 2013, Yusuf was named an Officer in the Order of Canada

ETA: I realize that spending a minute to verify a fact at odds with your prejudices would detract from the hours you spend composing misogynistic rants. Happy to lead your horse to water, I guess, though it's a safe bet you will not drink.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So Trump is saying Egypt and Jordan should be complicit in the permanent displacement of the Gazans. I'm paraphrasing, but that is what he is saying.

President Donald Trump says he wants Jordan and Egypt to take in more Palestinian refugees from Gaza to “just clean out” the enclave, which he described as a “demolition site.”

“You’re talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing and say, ‘You know, it’s over,’” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday.

“People are dying there. So I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where [Palestinians] can maybe live in peace,” he continued. When asked, he said the move could be temporary “or it could be long term.”

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of its war with Israel, according to two congressional sources briefed on U.S. intelligence, suggesting the Iran-backed fighters could remain a persistent threat to Israel.

Huh. Well now how did that happen? Betcha a year from now Hamas is stronger than they were a year ago.

Exclusive: Hamas has added up to 15,000 fighters since start of war, US figures show

You beat me to you it.

Over to you, all you supporters of Israel’s war in war in Gaza. The rest of us can just sit back and say, “Told you so.” How hard is it to figure out that slaughtering a bunch of innocent Palestinians was only going to increase Hamas fighters and support for Hamas?

Numbers mean much less than capability.

And Hamas just got quite a recruiting tool from being the only source of food.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I am more interested on the treatment during their captivity of those released than their appearance upon entering freedom.

And what they hvae to say about their time in captivity. We have seen horror stories from some of the previous ones.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Surprising no one who knows anything about history, because this pattern of initial success followed by unexistinguishable long term reprecussions and successful resistance eventually leading to withdrawal of troops has recurred thousands of times in thousands of conflicts over the last century.

I don't know of any situation in which violent invaders had near zero regard for their own people. Such as the Gazans Who Matter have nearly no regard for the other Gazans.

My take away from the current events is that the Israeli government needs to get over their attempts to be conciliatory and careful about civilian casualties. Gazans still prefer violence and poverty over peace and prosperity.

When their 15,000 new recruits launch their next episode of invasion, with missles and murder and rape and kidnapping, Israel needs to respond more forcefully. Or the cycle of violence will continue.
Tom

Gazans, or Palestinians, did not attack Israel. Hamas did.

Israel practically destroyed Gaza and killed tens of thousands of civilians. In doing so they firmed up support for Hamas and bred more terrorists — just as I and others predicted at the start of this horror.

Your analysis is exactly backward. Respond more forcefully? Sure, they could nuke Gaza — would that be OK?

Israel attacking Gaza is what increases the cycle of violence, and guarantees it will be worse next time.

And your solution is to permit the genocide of Israel? Because Israel has exactly two choices: fight or die. The terrorists make the "fight" option look so ugly that the world will pressure Israel to take the die option. Of course they don't call it that, but that's what it's about.

Saying that Israel is driving the cycle of violence doesn't make it to. Tehran is driving it. Nuking Gaza wouldn't work. Nuking Tehran very well might, not that that's a viable option.

The reality is we have many cycles of the same pattern: Israel being brutal reduces Israeli deaths. Israel being nice increases Israeli deaths.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

When their 15,000 new recruits launch their next episode of invasion, with missles and murder and rape and kidnapping, Israel needs to respond more forcefully. Or the cycle of violence will continue.

In what possible sense would Israel responding more forcefully in that scenario be anything other than the cycle of violence continuing??

The ONLY way to break the cycle of violence is for somebody to start responding LESS forcefully. Ideally, for everybody to start responding less forcefully.

Are you seriously expecting Hamas to be the adults in the room?

Or do you genuinely imagine that the reason for the increased Hamas recruitment is that Israel hasn't killed or injured enough Gazans yet?

Israel responding less forcefully will mean the terrorists are able to respond more forcefully.

You are looking for peace under the streetlight.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I know, right? He’s calling for Israel to increase the cycle of violence to end the cycle of violence. It’s rather hard to understand how one writing this does not notice the glaring internal contradiction.

Standard leftist error.

Israel isn't trying to end the cycle of violence because they know they can't other than by being exterminated or possibly by going nuclear. Israel is trying to minimize the damage they suffer.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I wonder what released Palestinian hostages

Hostages? You mean prisoners. Terrorists. Many of whom (121 out of 200 released this weekend) were serving life in prison for killing people.
You can't compare them to hostages.

Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?

[Three of the released prisoners] were accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a crowded pool hall near Tel Aviv in 2002 that killed 15 people. Later that year, they were found to have orchestrated a bombing at Hebrew University that killed nine people, including five American students. Israel had described Odeh, who was working as a painter at the university at the time, as the kingpin in the attack.

I repeat this again. This was a very bad deal.

The hostage/prisoner exchange is only the most visible part of the deal. I'm certain there were a few backroom handshakes and hidden clauses as well, perhaps with Qatar, Jordan, and Iran. I doubt Netanyahu was pressured into a deal that would thwart his long term goals, even if he had to let some high profile terrorists return to Gaza or go into exile.

You can doubt this deal hurt him but that doesn't make it so.

 

[Shadowy Man]

So these four female Israelis released after 476 days look to be in pretty good shape, smiling, waving. They all look like they're holding small goody bags from Hamas. I wonder what released Palestinian hostages look like coming from Israeli captivity.

Didn’t one of the women released in the first batch have two missing fingers?

 

[Swammerdami]

There will be thousands more dead children, "Muslim" and "Jew" alike.

Jewish ones to large extent because of all the released terrorists and because this ceasefire deal makes future hostage taking by Palestinian terrorists more likely because it proved successful.

The idiocy here boggles the mind. Homes and hospitals have been destroyed. Children are damaged for life by malnutrition. Direct and indirect deaths in Gaza are credibly estimated at 150,000 or much more. Some objective observers regard Netanyahu as committing nearly a genocide on the Palestinian people. (Netanyahu has been indicted for war crimes.)

And this means Hamas' adventure "proved successful." ??? Once again, one wonders if some outlandish Infidels are auditioning for The Onion.

Like a stopped clock which is right twice a day, Derec may be right about one thing. The bitterness and hatred against the Israeli war criminals which these massacres have provoked may provoke NEW jihadists plotting revenge in numbers greater than the jihadists Israel has killed.

 

[TV and credit cards]

So these four female Israelis released after 476 days look to be in pretty good shape, smiling, waving. They all look like they're holding small goody bags from Hamas. I wonder what released Palestinian hostages look like coming from Israeli captivity.

Didn’t one of the women released in the first batch have two missing fingers?

Yes.