How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

Is this Bald guy on the right an AI?

Never any end to Russian shills. I guess rubles spend just as well as dollars.

 

[steve_bank]

I would be surprised if Putin is not using meds to deal with stress. That kid of long term stress is known to be debilitation.

Way back at thee beginning I watched a video of Putin listening to a report by the head of a security agency. Putin was on a raised platform sitting at a desk looking down on the guy, like in movies.
T
he guy said sneering Putin did not like and Putin let loose on him screaming. TTremebling the guy said what Putin wanted to hear.


Emperor Vlad The First. The video was part ofa bio documentary. He was a KGB operative in East Germany and married an East German. When East Germany collapsed he went around asking for help form the Soviet army and was ignored. He carried a life long grudge against the wet for the collapse of the Soviet Union and his experience in East Germany during the collapse.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Well, then, please enlighten us. Where are your forces after three years of this war?

They are in positions best suited for exterminating nazi forces.

You are unintentionally correct here. They are in a very good position to engage the Nazi forces. Just turn around.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Appears Ukraine did some damage at multiple airfields and took down at least one rail line. Final results to be determined, but this appears to be the biggest Ukrainian strike in Russia since Russia invaded. Ukraine claims 40 aircraft hit. "Hit" is notably not "destroyed".

Yeah, it's going to take a while to sort out exactly what the drones did. Since it's aircraft a hit very well might be a kill, though.

One thing that I find very disturbing is how the Russia invasion has changed drone use in wars and in a bad way. Global security has become diminished due to drones.

No. The Russian invasion has exposed how much drones change combat operations. It's actually good for global security as now everyone's going to be prepared for drones. Closing loopholes reduces the chance someone bases an attack decision on exploiting a loophole and thus the less likely the stuff actually gets used.

 

[barbos]

Is this Bald guy on the right an AI?

Never any end to Russian shills. I guess rubles spend just as well as dollars.

Speaking like a true patriot of American Empire.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That is just delusional. The US could strike back from the sea in minutes... and then you'd be whining about the US actually attacking Russia.

If you could, you would have already.

You think the US can't strike with Tomahawks from subs in the Arctic? Are things that bad in Russia, you don't understand the minimal capabilities of the US military? I think you are mistaking the US's lack of military occupational capabilities with the lack of our ability to blow shit up. We can't occupy territory well with the size of our military, but we can blow shit up very easily.

Yup. And note that 4 boomers were refit as Tomahawk carriers. All the stealth and under-ice capability of a boomer, but with 7 Tomahawks replacing each Trident. We have seen that Russian air defenses don't fare too well against cruise missiles even in combat areas, most of those Tomahawks would get through.

The reason the US hasn't struck Russia in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be the very likely return attacks on European cities by Russia. We don't want the Russian slaughter of Slavs to derail into another global war.

Exactly. We don't want WWIII.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Europe need to think about exit strategy.
So far it seems that they plan rearmament and then WW3 in 10 years it seems.
I don't see how are they going to do that.
Trump has 4 years, and even US neocons accept reality that there is now 3 power in the world - US, China and Russia. And US should abandon Europe and concentrate on what's naturally their sphere - North and Latin America.

You want Europe to exit from what? Europe does need to dramatically increase it's defense efforts or else Russian will invade.

From helping nazi terrorists

Again and again we see reports of Russian attacks on civilian things in Ukraine. Very rarely do we see anything about a Ukranian attack hitting civilians, let alone being aimed at them. (Some hits are inevitable due to intercepted or failed weapons.)

 

[barbos]

Yeah, it's going to take a while to sort out exactly what the drones did. Since it's aircraft a hit very well might be a kill, though.

Some ranking officials say ALL planes will be repaired.
I have not seen any evidence of total destruction.
Drones don't have much explosives so most damage is due to fire. if it was contained then I see no reason to doubt that claim.

Closing loopholes reduces the chance someone bases an attack decision on exploiting a loophole and thus the less likely the stuff actually gets used.

In short term it's going to cost US, becasue your bases are even less prepared for drone attacks which Russia should take part in. Tit for tat. We need to contact mexican cartels.

 

[barbos]

Europe need to think about exit strategy.
So far it seems that they plan rearmament and then WW3 in 10 years it seems.
I don't see how are they going to do that.
Trump has 4 years, and even US neocons accept reality that there is now 3 power in the world - US, China and Russia. And US should abandon Europe and concentrate on what's naturally their sphere - North and Latin America.

You want Europe to exit from what? Europe does need to dramatically increase it's defense efforts or else Russian will invade.

From helping nazi terrorists

Again and again we see reports of Russian attacks on civilian things in Ukraine. Very rarely do we see anything about a Ukranian attack hitting civilians, let alone being aimed at them. (Some hits are inevitable due to intercepted or failed weapons.)

That's a lie and ukro-propaganda.
Russia has never deliberately attacked civilian targets.
And we try to limit chances of collateral damage hitting targets at night when assholes are not in the building.
Whereas ukro-terrorist deliberately targeted civilians.

 

[barbos]

Aaww. Russian shill and regular RT TV guest said bad things about the US.

Details at 11.

Speaking like a true american imperialist and terrorist.

 

[bilby]

Yeah, it's going to take a while to sort out exactly what the drones did. Since it's aircraft a hit very well might be a kill, though.

It's worse than that. The drones targetted the aircraft that are in use, rather than those in reserve or storage, and these would be the best of the fleet (you don't mothball your best plane if you are told to mothball some of the fleet).

And these are Soviet bombers. There are no parts or new airframes being made, and so even minor damage can ground a plane permanently. Such planes can be used as a source of spares - but the attack aimed at the same weak point on each aircraft type. So if you want a part for that area of the plane, you are probably out of luck.

I suspect that the overall impact on Russia's ability to carry out strategic cruise missile attacks from the air will be far larger than a crude comparison between the declared size of the force and the claimed number of aircraft damaged would suggest.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Kyiv Post claims SBU has hit the Kerch bridge again, using explosives underwater on the support(s) and that the bridge is no longer “safe for use”.

No longer safe for use? That is quite the spin on "we didn't destroy it".

No longer safe to use is a mission kill. And a mission kill on that bridge will put a lot of Russian troops at risk of being cut off.

 

[barbos]

The usual suspects are incapable of learning anything.
They just repeat random scripts.

That's the most accurate thing you have said so far in this thread.

Though I suspect that you don't realise it.

The usua suspects are you and your ilk.
You repeat the sctipt over and over completely ignoring any facts.
President of Brasil effectively called Biden murderous piece of shit and criminal.
No reaction from the usual suspects, just copypasted and old script.

 

[barbos]

The drones targetted the aircraft that are in use, rather than those in reserve or storage,

You clearly don't know how things are done in Russia. There is no storage in Russia.
Junk planes are parked on the same field as operational and you can't tell the difference.
Tu-22 specifically, while not physically junk, were old militarily useless variants, used only for training.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

This is a bit off. If they targeted the pile cap, then it is possible that a portion of the piles supporting the bridge aren't support it now*, if the structural connection has been destroyed.

Based on the initial Ukrainian call on this, they said the bridge was made unsafe for use, which is a pretty odd spin. Ukraine is going to exaggerate, so to me that meant the bridge isn't in grave danger of collapse. An explosion like this wouldn't impact the piles themselves all too much as the soil would provide support. They need to take out the cap which would drop the pier and collapse. Or destroying the pier eliminates load transfer and drops the span.

If I'm reading that image correctly there isn't a central support, but rather a bunch of separate supports. Such a design makes sense if you need to spread the load out over a lot of territory. I would think that the maximum load such a structure could support would be linearly related to the number of piles--but most of that load is going to be the bridge itself. Thus a fairly small loss of piles will greatly decrease the safety margin.

 

[barbos]

Kyiv Post claims SBU has hit the Kerch bridge again, using explosives underwater on the support(s) and that the bridge is no longer “safe for use”.

No longer safe for use? That is quite the spin on "we didn't destroy it".

No longer safe to use is a mission kill. And a mission kill on that bridge will put a lot of Russian troops at risk of being cut off.

Boy, you suck at geography.
And no, operation utterly failed, UK sub was merely able to hit a protective net or something. Explosion was tiny and meant to make a pass, after that something apparently went wrong becasue it ended with that tiny grenade level explosion.

 

[bilby]

Some ranking officials say ALL planes will be repaired.
I have not seen any evidence of total destruction.
Drones don't have much explosives so most damage is due to fire. if it was contained then I see no reason to doubt that claim.

That depends how shitty the Soviet manufacturing process was in the first place. If a fire has occurred close to the main spar (which it has), and if that main spar was made from heat treated high strength alloy (which it should have been), then those planes are never going to be airworthy again.

You could open a factory to make replacement main spars and other parts; But if you did, it would probably be easier to just build whole new planes than to repair the fire damaged ones. And I doubt that today's Russia has the money, the skills, or the institutional knowledge to build more such aircraft. That capability died with the USSR.

Talk is cheap. Strategic Airborne Cruise Missile Carrier Aircraft are both expensive, and complex.

And if you did get them into production (or even find a way to repair some damaged ones) what stops Ukraine from just setting the new ones on fire with more drones? Drones are cheap. Big expensive targets are a liability.

 

[bilby]

In short term it's going to cost US, becasue your bases are even less prepared for drone attacks which Russia should take part in. Tit for tat. We need to contact mexican cartels.

Russia might, with great difficulty, manage to launch a similar attack against USAF assets. But what good would that do them? Those USAF aircraft aren't attacking Russia now, so it won't stop any current attacks; And the US might be seriously fucking pathetic in their lack of support for Kyiv, but they sure as shit would change that very smartish if a direct attack were made on US assets, personnel, or facilities in the mainland USA.

Look at WWII. America knew it needed to help the UK, but was hugely reluctant to do so - until someone attacked a US base on US territory. Then the gloves came off. Anericans are isolationist to a fault. But you seriously don't want to push them over the line, and any attack in the US itself would be waaaaaay over that line.

In short, come and have a go, if you think you're hard enough.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Putin’s wife always said to him, “Put in, put in!”

She wants him?!?!

 

[barbos]

Russia might, with great difficulty, manage to launch a similar attack against USAF assets. But what good would that do them?

Some say it would make scum to think twice about conducting terrorist acts on Russia's soil.