Climate Change(d)?

[Shadowy Man]

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005. The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time. They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.

Teh Gruaniad

Of course, they go on to predict it will start melting sometime in the future because their models say so.

Exactly! When has a scientist's model ever predicted anything accurately??? Why are then even using "models" when they could just look at the world right in front of them. Get out of your mama's basement and experience the real world!!

 

[Shadowy Man]

Sorry for the flippant remark. I had just assumed that you weren't interested in a detailed discussion of the science. Let me know if that assumption was unwarranted.

Here's a link to the actual scientific journal article being addressed in that Guardian article: "Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability"

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005. The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time. They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.

Teh Gruaniad

Of course, they go on to predict it will start melting sometime in the future because their models say so.

So you are cherry picking then?

 

[steve_bank]

I think tolerance to heat is both mental and phycal.

Over 80f around here and the wearer reporting call all hand on deck. I grew up with hot and humid summer in Ct, I . I keep two liter bottle of water in the refrigerator and drink throughout the day.

A long as air temp is lower than body temp evaporating sweat cools the body. At high humility the rate of evaporation goes down as percent water in atmosphere goes up.

You loose more water by perspiration per hour in the the low humidity desert than here in Seattle on a humid day at the same air temp.

When it gets hot I relax into it and stay hydrated.

 

[Shadowy Man]

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005. The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time. They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.

Teh Gruaniad

Of course, they go on to predict it will start melting sometime in the future because their models say so.

So you are cherry picking then?

It's similar to a "slowdown" in global warming that happened during the late 1990s/2000s (see, e.g., this article). The anthropogenic forcing of climate change can be similar to natural variabilities, so we might expect some "pauses" in effects (such as the current slowdown in Arctic sea ice melt). Given more time we will see if/when this continues to drop.

I'm sure that TSwizzle can respond adequately to the following discussion in the article in question and inform us as to where the article's authors have gotten this wrong:

It is important to appreciate that the observed trend in Arctic sea ice cover over a given period is composed of a contribution caused by anthropogenic emissions, denoted the forced response, and a contribution from unforced fluctuations associated with internal climate variability (Dörr et al., 2023; England, 2021; England et al., 2019; Shen et al., 2024; Sweeney et al., 2024). Anthropogenically-forced changes which may contribute to a reduction in Arctic sea ice loss over the past two decades include a forced slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Lee & Liu, 2023), and changes in the emissions from biomass burning, both in the magnitude (Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., 2025), and the variability (DeRepentigny et al., 2022). One would imagine, however, that the reduction of sulfur emission from shiptracks (Yoshioka et al., 2024) would lead to an acceleration rather than a deceleration of sea ice loss since 2020. Alternatively modes of climate variability which act on multi-decadal timescales, such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (Deser & Phillips, 2021; Kerr, 2000) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Mantua & Hare, 2002), have an important imprint on Arctic sea ice. For example, variability emanating from the Pacific sector (Baxter et al., 2019; Ding et al., 2018) or Atlantic sector (Meehl et al., 2018) has been suggested to have substantially contributed to the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice during the 2000s (England et al., 2019). Several recent studies (Dörr et al., 2023; Shen et al., 2024; Siew et al., 2024), based on different methods, conclude that internal variability is at least as important as anthropogenic forcing, perhaps more, for explaining the steep decline in that period. Needless to say, internal variability can damp sea ice loss trends as well as strengthen them. For instance, Yeager et al. (2015) correctly predicted a slowdown of winter Atlantic sector sea ice loss for the past decade based on predictability from oceanic conditions linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

 

[bilby]

Of course, they go on to predict it will start melting sometime in the future because their models say so.

I predict that if I drop a brick, it will fall to the ground. But only because my models say so. So you probably think my prediction absurd.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005. The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time. They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.

Teh Gruaniad

Of course, they go on to predict it will start melting sometime in the future because their models say so.

Same pattern as always--count from the last outlier and pretend it's stopped.

Two simple tests you can do on that article. Take a piece of paper or other such thing with a straight edge. In the interval that it's "stopped" put it against your screen so as to touch the low spot around 2005 and the most recent low spot. Note the angle of the paper--it's not flat. Repeat the experiment looking for the peaks--likewise, not flat.

 

[Shadowy Man]

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005. The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time. They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.

Teh Gruaniad

Of course, they go on to predict it will start melting sometime in the future because their models say so.

Same pattern as always--count from the last outlier and pretend it's stopped.

Two simple tests you can do on that article. Take a piece of paper or other such thing with a straight edge. In the interval that it's "stopped" put it against your screen so as to touch the low spot around 2005 and the most recent low spot. Note the angle of the paper--it's not flat. Repeat the experiment looking for the peaks--likewise, not flat.

Better than that: TSwizzle, with his expert knowledge of climate science, can simply point out where the article's authors are misinterpreting their models.

 

[southernhybrid]

https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/08/mosquito-diseases-move

Experts discuss how environmental changes are altering the risk for mosquito-borne diseases​

Climate change and human activity are enabling the spread of mosquito-borne diseases, like dengue fever, to new places. Stanford infectious disease experts and disease ecologists discuss what we know and how communities can protect themselves from these changing disease threats.

The changing climate is dramatically altering the landscape of mosquito-borne diseases. Warmer temperatures, changes in rainfall, and human activity are enabling their spread to new places often unprepared to deal with them.

This year, locally transmitted malaria cases cropped up in Florida and Texas for the first time in 20 years. But dengue fever has dominated global headlines, with outbreaks unprecedented in their locations, severity, and duration. With deadly outbreaks from Bangladesh to Peru and record numbers of cases in Europe, the World Health Organization officials this July warned that climate change could push dengue cases to near-record numbers.

“Often people think that all mosquitoes are the same, or that all mosquitoes can transmit the same diseases, but in fact mosquitoes differ in their ecologies and their ability to transmit different pathogens, resulting in differences in how we prevent and mitigate disease transmission,” said Erin Mordecai, associate professor of biology in the School of Humanities and Sciences.

Mordecai is among several Stanford experts who are leading efforts to understand how climate change is impacting the spread of various mosquito vectors and the deadly diseases they carry – and how to respond. Educating communities and health providers about the differences between these various mosquitoes on the move is critical to protecting public health, they say.

I'm sure there are never any mosquitoes in Santa Monica so why should we worry about these horrible diseases being spread to new places. /s

 

[TSwizzle]

Another load of claptrap from two years ago. The discussion cites zero evidence of the claims made from these people.

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.

It really is a religion for you lot.

 

[steve_bank]

Another load of claptrap from two years ago. The discussion cites zero evidence of the claims made from these people.

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.

It really is a religion for you lot.

That has nothing to do with mate change.

Your bus was late due to those socialist commie democrats who run the California government.

I know this is true because Trump says so and I read it in the Gordian,.

 

[TSwizzle]

Another load of claptrap from two years ago. The discussion cites zero evidence of the claims made from these people.

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.

It really is a religion for you lot.

That has nothing to do with mate change.

Your bus was late due to those socialist commie democrats who run the California government.

I know this is true because Trump says so and I read it in the Gordian,.

It’s a common theme in these articles that get posted on here. Whatever negative thing, it is claimed to be caused by climate change.

I’m not going to waste my time reading these articles anymore. I’ve tried to be open minded with you lot but you’re just wasting my time and bandwidth now.

 

[steve_bank]

Another load of claptrap from two years ago. The discussion cites zero evidence of the claims made from these people.

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.

It really is a religion for you lot.

That has nothing to do with mate change.

Your bus was late due to those socialist commie democrats who run the California government.

I know this is true because Trump says so and I read it in the Gordian,.

It’s a common theme in these articles that get posted on here. Whatever negative thing, it is claimed to be caused by climate change.

I’m not going to waste my time reading these articles anymore. I’ve tried to be open minded with you lot but you’re just wasting my time and bandwidth now.

Hmmm ... have you tried reading Scientist American?

News

News and research about News, including commentary and archival articles published in Scientific American.

www.scientificamerican.com

Podcasts | Scientific American

Be informed and entertained with original podcasts by Scientific American

www.scientificamerican.com

NOVA? You can navigate to find climate chge topics. Search on nova climate change videos

Two videos that give a condensed histrory of how hte Earrth formed and how the climate evolved.,

NOVA

Explore scientific discoveries on television's most acclaimed science documentary series.

www.cascadepbs.org

Google Search

Google Search

As the saying goes, broaden your horizons. The requirement is paying attention longer than scanning an article.

 

[Swammerdami]

When I was young there was a cliché: Call a doctor and he'll say "Take two aspirin and call me in the morning."

Is it still the case that aspirin is a frequent remedy in the USA? Can you buy it in any convenience store, or must you go to a pharmacy?

I ask because aspirin was very hard to find here in the Kingdom, even the "baby aspirins" prescribed for millions of heart or artery patients. And a dentist didn't even want to extract a tooth when I told her I took baby aspirin daily. (I stopped taking aspirin for a few days; only then would she extract.)

And just recently a largish Watson's pharmacy told me they didn't carry aspirin!

. . . dengue fever has dominated global headlines, with outbreaks unprecedented in their locations, severity, and duration.

Dengue (aka "break-bone fever") is a hemorrhagic fever -- that's why aspirin is contraindicated. Dengue is taken VERY seriously here in the Kingdom. If a single case is reported, the government will fumigate around every house in the affected village.

I'm sure there are never any mosquitoes in Santa Monica so why should we worry about these horrible diseases being spread to new places. /s

Lucky Santa Monica then. Sufferers of dengue are rushed immediately to hospital. "It won't kill you but you'll wish you were dead."

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.
. . .
It’s a common theme in these articles that get posted on here. Whatever negative thing, it is claimed to be caused by climate change.

Perhaps the Swizzster has a point. Back in the 20th century, before the latest temperature surges, people with the cranial capacity to post complete sentences on message-boards were usually capable of understanding simple science, or at least grasping the essentials when the science was summarized slowly for them. Now we have QAnon fans and MAGGOTs who think they know something because they've operated a soldering iron, but just parrot the lies they pick up from Trump and his merry brand of con-men and imbeciles. Why is this? Can't really blame the chat-bots; this was a problem even before the bots took over.
Could changing climate possibly be part of the explanation for this peculiar dumbing-down of America?

 

[thebeave]

Another load of claptrap from two years ago. The discussion cites zero evidence of the claims made from these people.

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.

It really is a religion for you lot.

That has nothing to do with mate change.

Your bus was late due to those socialist commie democrats who run the California government.

I know this is true because Trump says so and I read it in the Gordian,.

It’s a common theme in these articles that get posted on here. Whatever negative thing, it is claimed to be caused by climate change.

I’m not going to waste my time reading these articles anymore. I’ve tried to be open minded with you lot but you’re just wasting my time and bandwidth now.

Hmmm ... have you tried reading Scientist American?

News

News and research about News, including commentary and archival articles published in Scientific American.

www.scientificamerican.com

Podcasts | Scientific American

Be informed and entertained with original podcasts by Scientific American

www.scientificamerican.com

NOVA? You can navigate to find climate chge topics. Search on nova climate change videos

Two videos that give a condensed histrory of how hte Earrth formed and how the climate evolved.,

NOVA

Explore scientific discoveries on television's most acclaimed science documentary series.

www.cascadepbs.org

Google Search

Google Search

As the saying goes, broaden your horizons. The requirement is paying attention longer than scanning an article.

Scientific American used to be a great publication. I would not recommend it to anyone at this point. It has jumped the woke shark. Sad.

An Unscientific American

 

[steve_bank]

Over here aspirin doe not require a prescription, I take low dose apron for heart failure. You can order online, Amazon.

If you are going to have surgery you may be asked to stop taking aspirin for the duration.

Aspirin acts like a blood thinner, it prevents clumping of blood cells and can interfere with wound closure. I can not take regular dose aspirin while taking low dose daily, it can lead to internal bleeding.

I have to use acetaminophen for minor aches and pain, IOW Tylenol.

Aspirin should be avoided in cases of suspected or confirmed dengue fever. Acetaminophen (Tylenol) is the recommended pain reliever for dengue fever, while ibuprofen, naproxen, and aspirin should be avoided due to the risk of increased bleeding.

Dengue fever can cause thrombocytopenia (low platelet count) and increase the risk of bleeding. Aspirin is an antiplatelet drug, meaning it can further impair blood clotting, potentially leading to serious complications.

 

[steve_bank]

Another load of claptrap from two years ago. The discussion cites zero evidence of the claims made from these people.

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.

It really is a religion for you lot.

That has nothing to do with mate change.

Your bus was late due to those socialist commie democrats who run the California government.

I know this is true because Trump says so and I read it in the Gordian,.

It’s a common theme in these articles that get posted on here. Whatever negative thing, it is claimed to be caused by climate change.

I’m not going to waste my time reading these articles anymore. I’ve tried to be open minded with you lot but you’re just wasting my time and bandwidth now.

Hmmm ... have you tried reading Scientist American?

News

News and research about News, including commentary and archival articles published in Scientific American.

www.scientificamerican.com

Podcasts | Scientific American

Be informed and entertained with original podcasts by Scientific American

www.scientificamerican.com

NOVA? You can navigate to find climate chge topics. Search on nova climate change videos

Two videos that give a condensed histrory of how hte Earrth formed and how the climate evolved.,

NOVA

Explore scientific discoveries on television's most acclaimed science documentary series.

www.cascadepbs.org

Google Search

Google Search

As the saying goes, broaden your horizons. The requirement is paying attention longer than scanning an article.

Scientific American used to be a great publication. I would not recommend it to anyone at this point. It has jumped the woke shark. Sad.

An Unscientific American

I agree in general. It moved from science to more of a popular science magazine. But I would recommend it as general reading or a schlub like TSwizzle.

I used to read it monthly back in the day.

It looks like Popular Science magazine is still around.

 

[thebeave]

Another load of claptrap from two years ago. The discussion cites zero evidence of the claims made from these people.

My bus was late today. Must be climate change.

It really is a religion for you lot.

That has nothing to do with mate change.

Your bus was late due to those socialist commie democrats who run the California government.

I know this is true because Trump says so and I read it in the Gordian,.

It’s a common theme in these articles that get posted on here. Whatever negative thing, it is claimed to be caused by climate change.

I’m not going to waste my time reading these articles anymore. I’ve tried to be open minded with you lot but you’re just wasting my time and bandwidth now.

Hmmm ... have you tried reading Scientist American?

News

News and research about News, including commentary and archival articles published in Scientific American.

www.scientificamerican.com

Podcasts | Scientific American

Be informed and entertained with original podcasts by Scientific American

www.scientificamerican.com

NOVA? You can navigate to find climate chge topics. Search on nova climate change videos

Two videos that give a condensed histrory of how hte Earrth formed and how the climate evolved.,

NOVA

Explore scientific discoveries on television's most acclaimed science documentary series.

www.cascadepbs.org

Google Search

Google Search

As the saying goes, broaden your horizons. The requirement is paying attention longer than scanning an article.

Scientific American used to be a great publication. I would not recommend it to anyone at this point. It has jumped the woke shark. Sad.

An Unscientific American

I agree in general. It moved from science to more of a popular science magazine. But I would recommend it as general reading or a schlub like TSwizzle.

I used to read it monthly back in the day.

It looks like Popular Science magazine is still around.

Dude, did you read the whole article? If it turned into a laymen's popular science publication, I could understand and accept that. Its woke garbage. As an example, they published this:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Perhaps the most absurd of these articles is “Why the Term ‘JEDI’ is Problematic for Describing Programs that Promote Justice, Equity, Diversity and Inclusion” (23 September 2021). The authors argue:

Although they’re ostensibly heroes within the Star Wars universe, the Jedi are inappropriate symbols for justice work. They are a religious order of intergalactic police-monks, prone to (white) saviorism and toxically masculine approaches to conflict resolution (violent duels with phallic lightsabers, gaslighting by means of “Jedi mind tricks,” etc.). The Jedi are also an exclusionary cult, membership to which is partly predicated on the possession of heightened psychic and physical abilities (or “Force-sensitivity”). Strikingly, Force-wielding talents are narratively explained in Star Wars not merely in spiritual terms but also in ableist and eugenic ones: These supernatural powers are naturalized as biological, hereditary attributes.

I would take anything they save about climate change with a giant grain of salt, since CC has become such a right/left political wedge issue. You really think they would present a reliable, unbiased scientific analysis of it? I say this as someone with a science degree who accepts that climate change is real and happening, but I don't need to see lefty wacky hysterics and propaganda attached to it.

 

[steve_bank]

The populism is not SciAmer per se, it is science in general.

There are some pretty ridiculous, IMO, 'scientific' funded studies. coming out of colleges and universities.

The infamous UCLA word study. Eventually it was retracted.

A recent UCLA study suggests that the word "please," while often seen as a sign of politeness, is more of a strategic tool for managing social interactions and navigating potential frictions. The study found that its use, or lack thereof, can signal power dynamics and influence how requests are perceive

Professor Obvious, UCLA.

No shit Sherlock,.

Particle physics has been the major area for some time. It s probably hard to come up with a research project with some substance to it.

Pop science has become a commodity. NOVA and other PBS shows can be informative, but a lot of it is over dramatized trivia. Dramatic music background and heavy vocal narration with deep gravitas.

Science has become routine. Gone are the days of Earth shattering discoveries like QM and Reactivity.

Climate science is applied science that ha been around for some time. The greenhouse effect goes back to the 109h century.

A plot of science advances would probably be exponential, and we are at the top of curve.

Id say SciAmer s a reflection if science as it is today. Even in the early 90s the SciAmer had sensationalized covers. Astounding claims of new science.

It is still a good read for the general public IO.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'm sure there are never any mosquitoes in Santa Monica so why should we worry about these horrible diseases being spread to new places. /s

A couple of days ago I was reading that there was now a dengue threat here in Las Vegas.

And in the last few years I have been seeing a lot of stuff about mosquito prevention, something I never used to see here.