How should west respond to potential (likely) U.S. invasion of Venezuela?

[ideologyhunter]

Will our oil companies take an expensive risk like this? Especially knowing how volatile Trump himself is? And the fact that he's got, at the most, three years left on the scene? He'll be gone long before some huge infrastructure project would happen. Not to mention that each Big Mac could be his last.

 

[bilby]

Will our oil companies take an expensive risk like this? Especially knowing how volatile Trump himself is? And the fact that he's got, at the most we assume, three years left on the scene? He'll be gone long before some huge infrastructure project would happen. Not to mention that each Big Mac could be his last.

FTFY.

 

[ZiprHead]

So how seriously should we take the claims "Venezuelans are celebrating!!11"?

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.89PG4WE

But the images spreading on social media of people in Venezuela crying and thanking the United States are fake.

Reverse image search reveals the earliest version of the clip shared by the TikTok account @curiousmindusa, whose other posts BBC Verify journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh reported are rife with AI-generated content (archived here, here, here, here and here). AFP reached out to @curiousmindusa via direct message but a response was not forthcoming.
Close examination reveals several warped elements which indicate the video was made using AI.

Venezuelans who do celebrate, even just on social media, are picked up by the police for re-education.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump is saying Venezuela is giving the US 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, and Trump will manage the proceeds of it. The oil, which would amount to far less than what the US produces in a week, will.. oh who the fuck knows. He could be making this up. Kind of like how he says the oil companies want to go back into Venezuela so "badly". I think they said going back into Venezuela would be "a bad idea".

 

[DrZoidberg]

Trump is saying Venezuela is giving the US 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, and Trump will manage the proceeds of it. The oil, which would amount to far less than what the US produces in a week, will.. oh who the fuck knows. He could be making this up. Kind of like how he says the oil companies want to go back into Venezuela so "badly". I think they said going back into Venezuela would be "a bad idea".

Stop quoting Trump. At this point, who gives a shit what he says. It's just noise. The only thing that matters is what he's actually done.

Quoting Trump is just playing his game, allowing him to confuse everyone and get everyone stressing about what he might do.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

 

[DrZoidberg]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

The oil infrastructure Venezuela has now was originally built by US companies. Nationalised by Chavez.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

If you drove a big fat SUV you'd think so.

I don't know how much this moves the needle if Venezuela does play ball and in a year or so they are pumping at capacity and it's all going on the world market. They do have the largest reserves in the world.
Since what's done is done, personally I hope it does put downward pressure on the price of oil. In these regards, anything that harms Russia is a good thing.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

The oil infrastructure Venezuela has now was originally built by US companies. Nationalised by Chavez.

My understanding is it is mostly unused and in disrepair. Unused, this equipment still needs layup maintenance.
Beyond that, what is your point?

 

[DrZoidberg]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

The oil infrastructure Venezuela has now was originally built by US companies. Nationalised by Chavez.

My understanding is it is mostly unused and in disrepair. Unused, this equipment still needs layup maintenance.
Beyond that, what is your point?

Sure. But it wouldn't be American companies stealing anything. That's my point

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

We are talking likely billions in capital investment in an area where long term access is very far from certain. While oil is less than $60 a barrell. Is it even net positive to get the heavy crude / process / sell it at the low price for oil?

 

[DrZoidberg]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

We are talking likely billions in capital investment in an area where long term access is very far from certain. While oil is less than $60 a barrell. Is it even net positive to get the heavy crude / process / sell it at the low price for oil?

Who is going to challenge USA's hold on Venezuela? What potential scenario can you see where USA will back off?

 

[TV and credit cards]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

We are talking likely billions in capital investment in an area where long term access is very far from certain. While oil is less than $60 a barrell. Is it even net positive to get the heavy crude / process / sell it at the low price for oil?

I dunno. I guess it depends how long term their thinking is. Yeah, the US may be regressing on EV adoption where other countries are a polar opposite, like China so what might benefit us and other ICE countries, China and some Nordic nations may not care much about in short order.
It will be increasingly difficult to maintain a PPBarrel Saudi Arabia might want.

 

[SLD]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!

They don't need to build oil refineries in Venezuela. The US has refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude along the *Gulf of America. It is a matter of their and other select oil companies wanting to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, that is extraction, transport, port facilities, and whatever else their might be. Can it all be a tax write off if things don't work out under the existing tax code? I'm ashamed to say, I'm not up on that part of the tax code that the oil industry might benefit from but I'll bet it is robusto.
The oil companies aren't going to be too timid about stepping into areas with questionable security. It's kinda what they do.

We are talking likely billions in capital investment in an area where long term access is very far from certain. While oil is less than $60 a barrell. Is it even net positive to get the heavy crude / process / sell it at the low price for oil?

Who is going to challenge USA's hold on Venezuela?

The USA itself if the Democrats regain power, if we ever have elections again. Really, the only way the US stays in Venezuela (well, we'd need to be there in the first), is we stop having elections in the US. Venezuelan gangs who see a potential in rising up as the Government is going to be in a questionable position of authority and power, the western portion of the nation isn't remotely secure and houses lots of factions that could cause problems. Venezuelan nationalists who might not like the idea of bowing to Trump.

Additionally, my comment was about US oil companies and the cost/benefit of re-entering the nation, ignoring the relatively low price for oil at the moment. Trump is already talking about incentives to these companies, which tells us quick, this isn't highly regarded by US oil companies.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

US seizes Russian flagged tanker.

U.S. forces seized a Russian-flagged tanker Wednesday that had evaded a naval blockade near Venezuela, officials said.

The tanker, known as Marinera, “has been secured,” a U.S. official told The Washington Post. “U.S. federal law enforcement personnel are currently on board it.”

The official said the mission went off without any interference from Russian vessels.

In a statement, U.S. European Command said the vessel “was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court” for alleged sanctions violations.

Probably should use the word "flagged", but no idea where this leads. Putin would presumably take some mosquito bites to help encourage Trump continue his sociopathic take over of the Western Hemisphere. Putin likely likes the idea of the US taking Greenland and shutting off access to the NW passage to Europe.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

US Energy Secretary says US in control of selling Venezuelan oil "indefinitely".

The energy secretary, Chris Wright, said on Wednesday that the United States intended to maintain significant control over Venezuela’s oil industry, including by overseeing the sale of the country’s production “indefinitely.”

“Going forward we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace,” Mr. Wright said at a Goldman Sachs energy conference near Miami.

Meanwhile, regarding the elephant in the room:

Mr. Wright echoed outside estimates forecasting that Venezuela could potentially boost oil production by several hundred thousand barrels per day relatively quickly. But more substantial increases above current output levels of around 1 million barrels per day would take much longer, even if international oil companies were ready to invest more money in the country.

“To get back to the historical production numbers, that takes tens of billions of dollars and significant time,” Mr. Wright said. “But why not?”

 

[laughing dog]

Fiona Hill - ex Trump advisor - reports that in 2019, Russian officials offered the US a free hand in Venezuela in exchange for one in Ukraine. At that time, she reports, the US was not interested.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The judge overseeing the Maduro case is 92 years young. I'm told that is the proper phraseology.
At 92, judge who defied Trump brings Torah ethos to Maduro trial

“This is the United States of America," he said. "People are being thrown out of the country because of their tattoos.”
- U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein

 

[Derec]

Will our oil companies take an expensive risk like this? Especially knowing how volatile Trump himself is? And the fact that he's got, at the most, three years left on the scene? He'll be gone long before some huge infrastructure project would happen. Not to mention that each Big Mac could be his last.

Despite political risks, I think the oil market will need Venezuelan oil in the future. US is extracting oil at >10Mbbl/d and that can't last at this rate too much longer. I see US shale declining sharply past 2030 or so. Major Saudi oil fields have been producing for >60 years by now, and it is also questionable how much Saudi Arabia will be able to produce past 2030. While oil demand will certainly decline some due to EVs and other technological advances, we will still need oil. And it will increasingly be difficult oil like Canadian oil sands (Athabasca) , Venezuelan oil sands (Orinoco) and similar that will have to be tapped to meet the demand.