Once again, raising the minimum wage doesn't result in higher unemployment. No one has shown this in empirical studies.(emphasis added) Auxlus made a big deal about a study that tried to say that a higher minimum wage results in slower employment growth for the first year after the wage goes up. This is considerably different (emphasis added) than your claim that it results in higher unemployment.
Different to whom? Last time I checked, unemployment due to a lack of new jobs feels a heck of a lot like unemployment caused by being laid off, for whatever reason. Moreover, raising the minimum wage DOES cause disemployment (unemployment) in specific parts of the workforce (among other deleterious effects), and that has been shown repeatedly.
I thought that an increase in the minimum wage is suppose to result in the unemployment of the some of the minimum wage workers that receive the increase? That it somehow reduces the future growth of jobs is something that we can live with and find other solutions for. It seems to be a very thin gruel for not increasing wages for the poor, especially when it is accompanied so often by assertions that no other wage increases result in such dire consequences.
And among the "no ones" you ignore that show in their empirical studies the negative effects on employment from increased minimum wage:
Baker, Benjamin, Stranger 1999
Neumark, Schweitzer, and Wascher 2004
Neumark and Washer 2002a
Cross Country Evidence Neumark and Washer 2004
Neumark 2001
Singell and Terborg 2007
Currie and Fallick 1996
Powers, Bauman, Persky 2007
Zavodny 2000
Couch and Wittenburg 2001
Wellington 1991
Williams and Mills 2001
Razen and Marimoutou
Keil, Robertson, and Symons 2001
Neumark and Wascher 1994
Keil, Robertson, Symons 2001
Deere, Muphy, and Welch 1995
Burkhauser, Counch, and Wittenburg 2000a
Sabia 2006a
(and others)...
An impressive list. But all of the studies that I have seen, pro- and con- all agree one one point, that whatever the effects of a minimum wage increase have on employment it is a barely noticeable one, so much so that it is impossible to measure its impact on the economy as a whole, that the only chance to see any impact at all is to look exclusively at teenage employment.
Oh, except of course, that an increase in the minimum wage makes a large difference in the lives of the minimum wage workers.
So yes, there are a lot of studies saying that a minimum wage increase might have a tiny impact on the employment of teenagers, either for the good or for the bad, but they all agree that there is no noticeable impact on the overall economy except for the benefits to the workers whose incomes are increased. Once again, I can live with that. Noted for future reference.
If it were true that an increase in the minimum wage results in higher unemployment among minimum wage workers then the converse would have to be true, lowering the minimum wage would have to result in more minimum wage workers. We have a thirty year experiment in effectively lowering the minimum wages. In current dollars the minimum wage is $3.50 lower than it was at it highest, when LB Johnson was president. How many more minimum wage workers do we now than in 1965? Your Nobel prize awaits, but be prepared for a disappointment.
That is one of the more poorly constructed 'ad hoc' rationalizations on minimum wage. IF minimum wage is lowered then by definition a smaller percentage of the workforce is defined as working at minimum wage, which makes fewer minimum wage workers. OF COURSE the number of workers covered by minimum wage drops. I suspect you are trying to say something different - but till then be aware that the percentage of the workforce covered has dropped accordingly: (an older capture I made)
There is no economic theory that holds up to say that higher wages result in more unemployment. The people who argue that a higher minimum wage results in higher unemployment depend on marginal productivity to provide theoretical support for the assertion. But MP tells us that any increase in wages should result in higher unemployment. It is one reason among many that marginal productivity is considered to be bogus. Besides, the people who developed the theory said that it is only valid at general equilibrium, full employment.
You mean the law of supply and demand does not "hold up"? Before you alert the press you might cease (errantly) focusing on denouncing marginal productivity (which illuminates the individual firms evaluation of an extra employee's marginal worth) and deal with the basic 'law' that does not hold up:
The law of s/d is based on a very simple proposition - if the price of something rises a buyer buys less of it. Minimum wages in a competitive labor market has an upward-sloping labor supply curve (S) and a downward-sloping labor demand curve (D). With no minimum wage, there is the equilibrium wage and labor employed (w and L). A minimum wage (mw) that is higher than w, will cause fewer workers to be employed. First, employers will substitute away from the more expensive labor to other inputs (such as capital) and second, because costs are higher with this new input mix, product prices rise, which further reduces labor demand in the affected group.
These two effects lead to lower employment (Lmw).Of course, there are other effects beyond this simplified model, but the effects start here. Employers also move towards substituting away from less-skilled workers toward more-skilled workers after a minimum wage increase, discourage future job growth in the affected sectors, and reduce worker income growth and mobility. Ifhe minimum wage is intended to help the least-skilled workers, the policy is self-defeating.
So what you are saying is that supply and demand in the labor market is only a one way street, that if the cost of something, labor in this case, goes up that people, employers, will buy less of it is absolutely true. But that the opposite doesn't hold, that if something costs less that people wouldn't buy more of it?
That increasing someone's wages limits wage growth. That increasing lower paid workers incomes means that more higher paid workers are hired. That there are other unknown effects that just have to hurt those poor people, there just have to be.
In what universe aren't these rationalizations tailored to this discussion and this discussion alone?
All that we are talking about doing is increasing the wages of minimum wage workers and those near minimum wage workers by 19 billion dollars a year for a minimum wage increase to $10.50 an hour. The CBO says that this will result in profits being reduced by about 17 billion dollars a year. Corporate profits, not including profits from small businesses, are running about 1.7 to 1.9 trillion dollars a year. The decrease in profits won't even threaten the rounding error.
Perhaps this is the most illuminating comment on this subject you have made. Apparently you think the issue is NOT helping a specific subset of the labor market (the young, unskilled, teens, etc.) or concern over a specific subset of businesses that employ min wage employees, BUT that of all those big profit "corporations".
I guess it helps to pretend that Exxon, McDonalds, and Lena's Soul Food Cafe and their employees are jointly impacted in those "trillion plus" in corporate profits - I mean, why clutter the discussion with that subset of employees, businesses, and consumers actually impacted with new costs and actual effects?
These aren't my numbers. They come from the Congressional Budget Office, made when the CBO still made independent assessments of the economic impact of proposed legislation, before conservatives in Congress instructed them on what conclusions that the CBO has to come to.
Of course, what is important is the impact that the increase in the minimum wage would have on the minimum wage workers and those earning close to the minimum wage. All that the CBO is saying is that the impact will be reduced profits. I simply quoted what corporate profits are to give some context to the size of the possible impact on those profits. None.
If we have learned anything from the supply side economics of the last thirty five years it is that the income distribution in the country is capable of being modified by national economic policies.
We have, just have we should have learned that certain kinds of economic policies are more concerned with punitive harm to some, more than they are of helping those they claim they wish to help.
What punitive harm does it do? It doesn't impact employment enough to notice. It reduces profits by 17 billion dollar in a 17 trillion dollar economy.
It will help the people that need the help without causing the slightest suggestion of a ripple in the economy.
I want to go much further, to use what we have learned over the last thirty five years about the robustness of the real economy that we have today, not some fantasy of free market fetishes about marginal productivity and one way supply and demand in the minimum wage labor market and nowhere else, to completely eliminate poverty. To eliminate this scourge, this waste of human potential that causes so many of the problems that we have today.