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Is the end of outsourcing near?

It was probably never as advantageous to manufacture in China as was commonly believed. I was in China from Tianamen to just about two years before the hand over of Hong Kong. The China advantage was confined to a few labor intensive consumer products. Even there the average person person will grossly over estimate the percentage of the selling price that the cost of production is.

I was a heavy industrial equipment manufacturer. The economics of manufacturing in the PRC a for delivery to a customer in the PRC was hopeless, much less for delivery to Europe or the U.S. And it was an open secret that the Chinese government was subsidizing the shops in China to try to get a toehold in the business. They were under bidding US and European shops by 40% but they couldn't deliver, in any way. On time, on price, to any reasonable standard of quality.

When they learned a little and improved their prices came up to the same as the U.S. and European shops, but they still would screw up something. I had equipment and structural steel delivered with leaded paint, a trivial cost in the scheme of things unless you have to strip it off wearing pressurized moon suits because it is a hazardous material.

The main advantage of the "China price" was to scare your sub suppliers into giving you their best price and in scaring your unions into holding wage demands low.

I am sure that the Chinese improved in the years since I left, but they still don't have a noticeable market share without partnering with a U.S. or European company, ex. China.
 
It was probably never as advantageous to manufacture in China as was commonly believed. I was in China from Tianamen to just about two years before the hand over of Hong Kong. The China advantage was confined to a few labor intensive consumer products. Even there the average person person will grossly over estimate the percentage of the selling price that the cost of production is.

I was a heavy industrial equipment manufacturer. The economics of manufacturing in the PRC a for delivery to a customer in the PRC was hopeless, much less for delivery to Europe or the U.S. And it was an open secret that the Chinese government was subsidizing the shops in China to try to get a toehold in the business. They were under bidding US and European shops by 40% but they couldn't deliver, in any way. On time, on price, to any reasonable standard of quality.

When they learned a little and improved their prices came up to the same as the U.S. and European shops, but they still would screw up something. I had equipment and structural steel delivered with leaded paint, a trivial cost in the scheme of things unless you have to strip it off wearing pressurized moon suits because it is a hazardous material.

The main advantage of the "China price" was to scare your sub suppliers into giving you their best price and in scaring your unions into holding wage demands low.

I am sure that the Chinese improved in the years since I left, but they still don't have a noticeable market share without partnering with a U.S. or European company, ex. China.

It's much improved today, at least for commodity type items. There are some killer deals ordering something wholesale from alibaba, and the customer service is also usually superior to the US companies I've dealt with.
 
It's OK; Once the billion or so Chinese and the billion or so Indians start to demand living wages, the outsourcing can fall back on a billion or so Africans who will work for pennies per week.

Once the Africans start to demand a living wage, I guess we will have to invade Mars and enslave a billion Martians. Or start paying a reasonable price for our brightly coloured tat. (Which of these is crazy talk depends on the political position of the person making the judgement).
 
I, for one, expect to continue to outsource most tasks (production of food, house, car, etc.) to people who are better at it than I am.
 
It was probably never as advantageous to manufacture in China as was commonly believed. I was in China from Tianamen to just about two years before the hand over of Hong Kong. The China advantage was confined to a few labor intensive consumer products. Even there the average person person will grossly over estimate the percentage of the selling price that the cost of production is.

I was a heavy industrial equipment manufacturer. The economics of manufacturing in the PRC a for delivery to a customer in the PRC was hopeless, much less for delivery to Europe or the U.S. And it was an open secret that the Chinese government was subsidizing the shops in China to try to get a toehold in the business. They were under bidding US and European shops by 40% but they couldn't deliver, in any way. On time, on price, to any reasonable standard of quality.

When they learned a little and improved their prices came up to the same as the U.S. and European shops, but they still would screw up something. I had equipment and structural steel delivered with leaded paint, a trivial cost in the scheme of things unless you have to strip it off wearing pressurized moon suits because it is a hazardous material.

The main advantage of the "China price" was to scare your sub suppliers into giving you their best price and in scaring your unions into holding wage demands low.

I am sure that the Chinese improved in the years since I left, but they still don't have a noticeable market share without partnering with a U.S. or European company, ex. China.

It's much improved today, at least for commodity type items. There are some killer deals ordering something wholesale from alibaba, and the customer service is also usually superior to the US companies I've dealt with.

Yes, I have found that to be true, that the Chinese do well when you order directly from them.

You are usually ordering directly from the manufacturers not from a retailer who is at the end of a long distribution chain. This is something that the manufacturers don't do in the US or Europe. They protect their retail customers by quoting you prices closer to the retail price than the wholesale price. The Chinese will eventually learn to do this too.

I bought 12 ~1 kW, brushless DC motors for myself, people in New Zealand, England and Germany. The motors took about four weeks to deliver to the US, six weeks to Europe. The motors were about $350 each, we had been quoted anywhere from $550 to £700 each for the motors from the US and Europe.

The manufacturer in China successfully drop shipped two motors to six different addresses in four different countries. We are all modifying our wheelchairs to go 15 km/h. Now if I could just find a cheap source for 10 or 12 amp hour LiFePO4 battery cells. We need about 350 of them. But it is a sellers market right now, these are the same cells used for the electric bicycle hub motor conversions that are so popular in China.

But the Chinese are still having problems with heavy industrial machinery. These are the traditional heavy industry capital machines that are usually manufactured as a custom one or two at a time. And on structural steel fabrication where each piece of steel can be different and there is a premium on systematic ordering of manufacture and delivery. In the US we have computer controlled manufacturing that reduces errors, the computer works from the drawings and plans the manufacturing and deliveries based on the computerized schedule. They will learn to do this too. They are being to automate, too.

But the Chinese don't want to be the world's source of cheap labor. They realize that it has a limited future, there is always someone that can under cut your price.

Even in the early days of the Chinese conversion to capitalism there was a large middle class in China that had a living standard about on the level of pre-Great Financial Crisis and Recession of 2008 Greece or Spain, about 350 to 400 million urban dwellers.

The Chinese want to be a middle class country like the Europeans or like what the Anglo Americans use to be before they became obsessed with the single minded pursuit of more income and wealth only for the really rich. Even in the early 1990's there were more people who earned $100,000 a year in China than in any other country in the world.
 
I, for one, expect to continue to outsource most tasks (production of food, house, car, etc.) to people who are better at it than I am.

Ah, yes, comparative advantage, another neoclassical economic theory that survives despite numerous examples of why it isn't valid. The biggest reason is that modern industrial technology and financial capital can also be exported.
 
I, for one, expect to continue to outsource most tasks (production of food, house, car, etc.) to people who are better at it than I am.

Ah, yes, comparative advantage, another neoclassical economic theory that survives despite numerous examples of why it isn't valid. The biggest reason is that modern industrial technology and financial capital can also be exported.

So I should be building my own car and growing my own food instead of using my investment skillz to make money and pay others to do these things?

I have a feeling if I built my own car it would be made of wood, bicycle tires and a lawn mower engine.

Wait, would I have to build my own lawn mower engine and bicycle tires too? Do I have to refine my own gasoline to put in the lawn mower engine? Do I have to drill my own oil well to get the oil to refine?

It seems a lot more practical to outsource these things.
 
It's OK; Once the billion or so Chinese and the billion or so Indians start to demand living wages, the outsourcing can fall back on a billion or so Africans who will work for pennies per week.

Once the Africans start to demand a living wage, I guess we will have to invade Mars and enslave a billion Martians. Or start paying a reasonable price for our brightly coloured tat. (Which of these is crazy talk depends on the political position of the person making the judgement).

As long as a sizable portion of the Anglo American voters feel that it is more important to raise the standard of living of people in other countries rather than raising their own we will be chasing ever lower wages around the world in order to keep wages low in our own countries.
 
Ah, yes, comparative advantage, another neoclassical economic theory that survives despite numerous examples of why it isn't valid. The biggest reason is that modern industrial technology and financial capital can also be exported.

So I should be building my own car and growing my own food instead of using my investment skillz to make money and pay others to do these things?

I have a feeling if I built my own car it would be made of wood, bicycle tires and a lawn mower engine.

Wait, would I have to build my own lawn mower engine and bicycle tires too? Do I have to refine my own gasoline to put in the lawn mower engine? Do I have to drill my own oil well to get the oil to refine?

It seems a lot more practical to outsource these things.
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You, as always, missed the point. Outsourcing means that you move production and the jobs that go along with the production to other countries, not that you shift production to the individual. The OP is about outsourcing.
 
Ah, yes, comparative advantage, another neoclassical economic theory that survives despite numerous examples of why it isn't valid. The biggest reason is that modern industrial technology and financial capital can also be exported.

So I should be building my own car and growing my own food instead of using my investment skillz to make money and pay others to do these things?

I have a feeling if I built my own car it would be made of wood, bicycle tires and a lawn mower engine.

Wait, would I have to build my own lawn mower engine and bicycle tires too? Do I have to refine my own gasoline to put in the lawn mower engine? Do I have to drill my own oil well to get the oil to refine?

It seems a lot more practical to outsource these things.

And, while you're at it, you should try outsourcing your comedy routine to someone who is actually good at it.
 
So I should be building my own car and growing my own food instead of using my investment skillz to make money and pay others to do these things?

I have a feeling if I built my own car it would be made of wood, bicycle tires and a lawn mower engine.

Wait, would I have to build my own lawn mower engine and bicycle tires too? Do I have to refine my own gasoline to put in the lawn mower engine? Do I have to drill my own oil well to get the oil to refine?

It seems a lot more practical to outsource these things.

And, while you're at it, you should try outsourcing your comedy routine to someone who is actually good at it.

Outsourcing is bad so I gotta do it myself.
 
As machines become more efficient and cheaper they will be doing most of the labor, not only manufacturing, but sales as well. Infrastructure is becoming a more important factor, so yeah manufacturing may return to the US. The real question is what are people going to do? Machines aren't really consumers-how will the economy work in a world where machines do all the work? What will 6 billion people do?
 
Manufacturing is becoming a hobby category. Labor regulation and order should apply to service and unique things like art and music, all screwed up very screwed up areas, to re-balance economy. Bring order to these categories by enforcing labor rights and fair wage practices and we'll soon have replaced the dead agricultural and dying manufacturing economies with robust individual industry and economy. Corporations have always taken too much credit for 'innovation and development'. Establish bounds on what they can claim and refocus most of cost to workers who actually had the ideas and put them into place. the corporation is becoming an outmoded, should be extinct, concept.

For instance, really have problems with pharma claiming billions for development when most of it is actually due to government subsidized facilities and capabilities usually at defense and academic settings.

things that are well defined should be provided to the general population as a right of being citizens where these things are established. We should only pay for products that are the result of unique mental effort and actual individual manual effort by those who want to that kind of work.
 
I, for one, expect to continue to outsource most tasks (production of food, house, car, etc.) to people who are better at it than I am.

Parents have been outsourcing dishwasher duty to their children for generations and it's probably never going to stop.
 
As machines become more efficient and cheaper they will be doing most of the labor, not only manufacturing, but sales as well. Infrastructure is becoming a more important factor, so yeah manufacturing may return to the US. The real question is what are people going to do? Machines aren't really consumers-how will the economy work in a world where machines do all the work? What will 6 billion people do?

Eventually we will see a Universal Basic Income type solution. Everyone will get enough for a reasonable life, you get a job if you want more.
 
It was probably never as advantageous to manufacture in China as was commonly believed. I was in China from Tianamen to just about two years before the hand over of Hong Kong. The China advantage was confined to a few labor intensive consumer products. Even there the average person person will grossly over estimate the percentage of the selling price that the cost of production is.

I was a heavy industrial equipment manufacturer. The economics of manufacturing in the PRC a for delivery to a customer in the PRC was hopeless, much less for delivery to Europe or the U.S. And it was an open secret that the Chinese government was subsidizing the shops in China to try to get a toehold in the business. They were under bidding US and European shops by 40% but they couldn't deliver, in any way. On time, on price, to any reasonable standard of quality.

When they learned a little and improved their prices came up to the same as the U.S. and European shops, but they still would screw up something. I had equipment and structural steel delivered with leaded paint, a trivial cost in the scheme of things unless you have to strip it off wearing pressurized moon suits because it is a hazardous material.

The main advantage of the "China price" was to scare your sub suppliers into giving you their best price and in scaring your unions into holding wage demands low.

I am sure that the Chinese improved in the years since I left, but they still don't have a noticeable market share without partnering with a U.S. or European company, ex. China.
A guy I know recently went to Rotterdam to inspect a shipload of steel caissons en route from China to a UK offshore windfarm. It was supposed to be a double-check as the Chinese had guaranteed quality control to UK specs. Early on, nearly everything he inspected had defects. A few panicky phone calls later, he was told to leave the rest, bin his reports and come home.
 
As machines become more efficient and cheaper they will be doing most of the labor, not only manufacturing, but sales as well. Infrastructure is becoming a more important factor, so yeah manufacturing may return to the US. The real question is what are people going to do? Machines aren't really consumers-how will the economy work in a world where machines do all the work? What will 6 billion people do?

Eventually we will see a Universal Basic Income type solution. Everyone will get enough for a reasonable life, you get a job if you want more.

What job?
 
A guy I know recently went to Rotterdam to inspect a shipload of steel caissons en route from China to a UK offshore windfarm. It was supposed to be a double-check as the Chinese had guaranteed quality control to UK specs. Early on, nearly everything he inspected had defects. A few panicky phone calls later, he was told to leave the rest, bin his reports and come home.

Magic of the free market in action.
 
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