Stagnating middle class? Really? How does that jive with all of these facts?

[PyramidHead]

When looking at median wages and median household income from 1980 to 2015:

How does the inflation data take into account more expensive production methods that lead to far less pollution, giving us all cleaner air, rivers, etc.

How does inflation data take into account more expensive worker safety equipment and safe work practices, leading to far fewer worker fatalities and injuries.

How well does inflation data take into account college cost increases due to fancy student rec centers, better student health facilities, and more student services?

How does inflation data take into account the effect taxes have on prices and rents (such as real estate taxes), allowing us to have far more government services, such as more police and better roads, which keeps us all safer (but will be reflected in higher rental prices).

How well does that inflation data take into account brand new technology that never before existed that leads to significant improvements in quality of life?

How well does that inflation data take into account much safer cars, leading to 66% less traffic fatalities per mile traveled?

How well does median household data take into account changing characteristics of households themselves, with far more households containing only a single adult?

These are just a small sample of the things the data you post doesn't capture. What matters is people's actual quality of life and the things that are relevant in determining what that quality is. Digits in a bank account are a means to that quality of life, but they are not the quality life in and of itself.

No matter what is taken into account, all of the classes get to enjoy the things you mentioned, but only the upper classes get to enjoy those same things PLUS rapidly rising income. That's the elephant in the room.

 

[arkirk]

When looking at median wages and median household income from 1980 to 2015:

How does the inflation data take into account more expensive production methods that lead to far less pollution, giving us all cleaner air, rivers, soil, protection of wildlife, etc.?

How does inflation data take into account more expensive worker safety equipment and safe work practices, leading to far fewer worker fatalities and injuries?

How well does inflation data take into account college cost increases due to student rec centers, better student health facilities, more student services, more student convenience (restaurants on campus), and better student housing?

How does inflation data take into account the effect tax increases have on prices and rents (such as real estate taxes), allowing us to have far more government services, such as more police and better roads, which keeps us all safer (but will be reflected in higher rental prices).

How well does that inflation data take into account brand new technology that never before existed that leads to significant improvements in quality of life?

How well does that inflation data take into account much safer cars, leading to 66% less traffic fatalities per mile traveled?

How well does median household data take into account changing characteristics of households themselves, with far more households containing only a single adult?

These are just a small sample of the things the data doesn't capture well. What matters is people's actual quality of life and the things that are relevant in determining what that quality is. Digits in a bank account are a means to that quality of life, but they are not the quality life in and of itself.

What is this median shit? This information always looks better than social reality...and leave room for a multitude of sins. Try you facts with the mean.

 

[laughing dog]

But little to none of it had anything specific to the middle class. In fact, you fail to even define what "middle class" means. Hence the reasonable skepticism to their relevance to an argument against a stagnating middle class and the reasonable conclusion about their randomness.

If you looked at the square footage per person data detail link I posted, there is a clear and unambiguous shift to the right, by about 100 square feet, of a curve plot on square footage per person. Obviously, however you want to define the middle class, it must also include a definition consistent with this data.

However you want to define the middle class, it would still be consistent with the fact that the median household now has 2 instead of 1 vehicles while at the same time, the average household size declined by 10%.

However you want to define the middle class, it would still be consistent with the fact that nearly every SES group lives about 4-5 years longer compared to 1980.

However you want to define the middle class, it would still be consistent with the fact that the air that all people breathe is cleaner by about 62% of the six most common air pollutants.

However you want to define the middle class, it would still be consistent the fact that overall crime rates are down 50%, and it would be incredulous to the extreme to believe that such group does not suffer much lower crime victimization rates given this significant reduction in overall crime.

However you want to define the middle class, it would still be consistent with the fact that vehicle deaths are down 66% per vehicle mile traveled, and that the car fleet as a whole has had a significant safety improvement from 35 years ago.

However you want to define the middle class, it would still be consistent with the fact that workplace fatalities and injuries are down significantly.

That is non-responsive, since "consistent with the middle class" is not the same as "the middle class". You made a specific claim about the middle class but most of your factoids apply to more than one class, which logically means they cannot possibly show anything about a specific class.

I noticed you ignored the bulk of my post. The stagnation of the middle class usually to refers to the lack of relative gain in the income distribution (i.e. that distribution of the gains from economic growth have been skewed away from the middle class). Your OP ignores that completely. So, either
1) you don't understand the argument, or
2) you are being disingenuous, or
3) your terms are so ill-defined as to draw out irrelevant responses from others.

So, I suggest you define what you mean by middle class and clarify what you mean by stagnation. That will clear up whether 1), 2) or 3) is the best description. It may make your apparent random factoids cohere into a cogent position.

 

[laughing dog]

Do you have non-random relevant data to support your claim that the middle class are a bunch of ingrates?

According to your stated standards, it is consistent with those who feel they are stagnating even though they are not.

Your empty claim with nothing to back it up deserves nothing more than a similar empty claim.

On the other, your claim does not meet your stated standards. But then again, you admit it was an empty claim.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

When looking at median wages and median household income from 1980 to 2015:

How does the inflation data take into account more expensive production methods that lead to far less pollution, giving us all cleaner air, rivers, soil, protection of wildlife, etc.?

You mean in China or India?

How does inflation data take into account more expensive worker safety equipment and safe work practices, leading to far fewer worker fatalities and injuries?

Do you mean the more dangerous jobs that are shipped to China or now filled by illegal immigrants? Or are you going to credit government regulations for the safer work places?

How well does inflation data take into account college cost increases due to student rec centers, better student health facilities, more student services, more student convenience (restaurants on campus), and better student housing?

Are you also considering the availability of credit that covers the cost of education, credit that was hard to come by in the 1980s?

How does inflation data take into account the effect tax increases have on prices and rents (such as real estate taxes), allowing us to have far more government services, such as more police and better roads, which keeps us all safer (but will be reflected in higher rental prices).

Are you taking into account the market rates of rental properties which are exploding in some areas causing overcrowding?

How well does that inflation data take into account much safer cars, leading to 66% less traffic fatalities per mile traveled?

Are you talking about government mandated safety features such as seat belts, car crash testing, and airbags?

 

[fromderinside]

What is this median shit? This information always looks better than social reality...and leave room for a multitude of sins. Try you facts with the mean.

I wouldn't do that. In most cases the categories are open ended at the top and bounded at the bottom which leads to inflated 'average' number.

Probably the best result would to take the median income and education group and take bound-unbound corrected averages from that.

As for the crime statistics average age of population and number of those between 15 and 35 are very important in population outcomes.

Other than that there are no corrections for continued increase in technology.

Otherwise a nice discussion about something, just not middle class conditions.

 

[untermensche]

...How does the inflation data take into account more expensive production methods that lead to far less pollution, giving us all cleaner air, rivers, soil, protection of wildlife, etc.?

We don't have cleaner water or air or soil than we had 50 years ago.

We may be polluting less but the quality of air, water, and soil are all slowly degrading. No improvement is being seen except on the small scale, overall things are getting worse.

The word that is missing from this whole thread is "quality".

Quality of opportunity. Quality of air, water, soil. Quality of education.

Wages for most have stagnated so long some think it is the norm. Except wealth and profits are rising.

Buying a more expensive home with 50 more square feet just isn't a consolation.

 

[Jayjay]

I take it, based on the OP, that only the middle class has enjoyed these improvements in technology, safety, and education. Rich people still die in car accidents just as much as they did in the 50's. Otherwise, what would be the point of citing a bunch of statistics that have affected every socioeconomic class in a thread about how the middle class is not stagnating relative to the rich?

I don't think that the quality of life of the middle class would be improved by rich people dying in car accidents.

 

[Toni]

There is nothing random about them. They are comprehensive and cover just about everything I could find that is relevant: how often we are killed, our living spaces, our transportation, our health, our education, etc.

The data is AVERAGED across the entire US population, not specifically gathered about middle class Americans. It's like putting someone on public assistance and say, Donald Trump in a group and averaging their stats and saying that they represent me. They may. They may not. Actually, if you have just the one poor person and Donald Trump, then that average is significantly higher than my income. Where's the rest of what should be in my bank account??

Most of it is not averaged. It all shows the same general trend of improvement.

Furthermore, are you up to the challenge to post your own data that demonstrates/supports the stagnation hypothesis, that you believe represents the middle?

I'm not claiming my data is perfect. I don't have a full time career to do comprehensive research and release a 100 page report. I posted comprehensive data on things I think are relevant. Where is your data to challenge my contention?

Uh, you don't know what I believe.

You don't even know what the stats you presented actually show.

 

[Toni]

When looking at median wages and median household income from 1980 to 2015:

How does the inflation data take into account more expensive production methods that lead to far less pollution, giving us all cleaner air, rivers, soil, protection of wildlife, etc.?

What 'less pollution?

How does inflation data take into account more expensive worker safety equipment and safe work practices, leading to far fewer worker fatalities and injuries?

What? You really understand the data you presented less than I thought you did.

How well does inflation data take into account college cost increases due to student rec centers, better student health facilities, more student services, more student convenience (restaurants on campus), and better student housing?

Silly question but what does any of that have to do with education?

Another silly question but what is the post graduation debt load in real dollars in 2015 compared with 1980? 1990? 2000?

What are the job prospects for students when they graduated in those years?

How does inflation data take into account the effect tax increases have on prices and rents (such as real estate taxes), allowing us to have far more government services, such as more police and better roads, which keeps us all safer (but will be reflected in higher rental prices).

You really don't know what you are talking about at all.

How well does that inflation data take into account brand new technology that never before existed that leads to significant improvements in quality of life?

Oranges.

How well does that inflation data take into account much safer cars, leading to 66% less traffic fatalities per mile traveled?

Bananas.

How well does median household data take into account changing characteristics of households themselves, with far more households containing only a single adult?

'
I'm going to forgo the temptation to write kumquats in response to that last statement because there is a tiny,tiny possibility that you might be able to understand that one of the often cited reasons that young adults are postponing marriage, home ownership and children is because of the enormous student debt load they stagger under, while piecing together an income that allows them to have a standard of living far lower than their parents enjoyed at the same age.

These are just a small sample of the things the data doesn't capture well. What matters is people's actual quality of life and the things that are relevant in determining what that quality is. Digits in a bank account are a means to that quality of life, but they are not the quality life in and of itself.

So how about posting something about what is actually relevant and measurable re: quality of life.

Start with rates of home ownership, mortgage as a percentage of income, rent as a percentage of income in 2015 vs 1980.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't think anyone will disagree that we are seeing an increasing spread between top and bottom. That's a basically inevitable result of the computer revolution--people are less saddled with nonsense and thus the productivity gap between the top and bottom is wider.

You are partially right: the gap between the top and the bottom is much, much larger. However, the US labor force is very much more productive coated with 30 or 50 years ago, thanks to a large extent to technological changes. I am not at all convinced that the upper level managerial class is at all more productive or efficient. There seem to be many more high level management positions relative to production workers.

1) There are actually less managers around--it's the main cause of older, unemployable degreed people. They have technical training of some kind but in reality spent many years managing people doing what they were trained in so they aren't current with their field, but now we have more reports per manager and thus fewer managers--many of them ended up effectively unemployable.

2) The productivity benefit of technology is unequal. For example, these days I rarely wait more than a few seconds for my system to compile my code. Back when I was in school it was considerably longer to compile far smaller programs. I spend a lot less time thumb-twiddling waiting for the system--and because it's so fast I leave a lot of typo-checking up to the compiler rather than looking for them by hand like I did in the old days. The time saved is considerable. Consider a burger-flipper, though--he's still doing just about the same thing his father did. There are a few improvements like drink-fillers that you push the button and walk away but the job is pretty much the same.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think anyone will disagree that we are seeing an increasing spread between top and bottom. That's a basically inevitable result of the computer revolution--people are less saddled with nonsense and thus the productivity gap between the top and bottom is wider.

This in turn explains why Axulus's focus on median without examination of the standard deviation (or even whether the curve is normal at all) is disingenuous.

As is, of course, his failure to include any *income* statistics in hist list....

A widening standard deviation makes pretty much no difference to the middle class, only to the poor and the rich.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

New homes have only gotten larger.

I just looked up the house I grew up in: 1,359 square feet. Admittedly I am no longer in the same state, let alone city, but finding a new house that small around here would be difficult.

- - - Updated - - -

How many square feet there is in a person's kitchen is no measure of how well off that person is. You simply are looking at a select group of people without problems and then imagining that all people are like that... It is true that a car with air bags a backup camera and collision avoidance software is safer than cars without. Look around and you will see how few cars are like that. You simply only have eyes for technological measures of success. These are not universal and are often not necessary. It is how you choose to measure human well being that I find objectionable...and equally misleading.

Except that "select group of people" is the average American.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

No matter what is taken into account, all of the classes get to enjoy the things you mentioned, but only the upper classes get to enjoy those same things PLUS rapidly rising income. That's the elephant in the room.

Elephant? He's next door, not in the room.

Axulus is talking about how the middle class is doing, not about how the rich are doing.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

...How does the inflation data take into account more expensive production methods that lead to far less pollution, giving us all cleaner air, rivers, soil, protection of wildlife, etc.?

We don't have cleaner water or air or soil than we had 50 years ago.

What are you smoking??

Wages for most have stagnated so long some think it is the norm. Except wealth and profits are rising.

Buying a more expensive home with 50 more square feet just isn't a consolation.

Wages have only stagnated since the crash.

Or are you lower class, not middle class, and thus seeing long-term stagnant wages?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Are houses bigger because people are beating on the doors of builders screaming for larger houses? Are vehicles larger for the same reason? Or are consumers led by the nose in a "keeping up with the Jonses" absurdity.
People do not know what they want. They are told what they want.

 

[Toni]

2) The productivity benefit of technology is unequal. For example, these days I rarely wait more than a few seconds for my system to compile my code. Back when I was in school it was considerably longer to compile far smaller programs. I spend a lot less time thumb-twiddling waiting for the system--and because it's so fast I leave a lot of typo-checking up to the compiler rather than looking for them by hand like I did in the old days. The time saved is considerable. Consider a burger-flipper, though--he's still doing just about the same thing his father did. There are a few improvements like drink-fillers that you push the button and walk away but the job is pretty much the same.

I don't think you are using the term 'productivity' very precisely. As defined by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US productivity has climbed since 1950:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/productivity

United States Productivity 1950-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
Productivity in the United States decreased to 105.57 Index Points in the first quarter of 2015 from 106.41 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 2014. Productivity in the United States averaged 61.13 Index Points from 1950 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 106.98 Index Points in the third quarter of 2014 and a record low of 27.55 Index Points in the first quarter of 1950. Productivity in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In other words, productivity as measured by the US Department of Labor has increased nearly 4 fold since 1950, peaking in 2014.

I think you ought to actually look up statistics about the fast food industry before you leap to conclude that productivity has stagnated. Or even technology, actually.

I also think you should be more careful about drawing a lot of generalizations between your personal experience regarding the number of managers today vs 1980. In my particular work unit, for example, over 10 years, we've increased managerial staff 3 fold while reducing the number of actual workers. There are a few reasons for that: previously, managerial staff was vastly overworked (and I'm not even a manager!) as were the actual workers (that's me) who routinely logged in a lot of overtime. In the past 5 years, technology has made it possible to reduce the number of workers significantly but somehow, not the number of managers which has been holding steady for the past 5 years or so, while our actual production has also remained steady in some aspects or slightly increased in others, despite the reduced number of 'workers'. I realize that's not true in all industries or even in all departments in my particular company. One must use a great deal of care not to rely too heavily upon your own industry as a model of how the economy as a whole works.

A widening standard deviation makes pretty much no difference to the middle class,

This doesn't actually hold true. As the middle class is defined in the US, the vast majority of citizens fall in the middle class. Technically, all of my adult children do, as do I and also my husband. There is a very significant difference in the income level of even myself compared with the highest earning of my children, by nearly double. And I earn only about 60% of what my husband earns whose salary is still in the middle class range.

Trust me: a widening standard deviation matters a great deal to my lower earning kids.

 

[DBT]

I think that we have, for decades, been building unsustainable bubble economies that are built on borrowed money, resources 'borrowed' from future generations, and consequently, borrowed time.

 

[Lumpenproletariat]

"Higher worker productivity" > lower worker value

You are partially right: the gap between the top and the bottom is much, much larger. However, the US labor force is very much more productive coated with 30 or 50 years ago, thanks to a large extent to technological changes. I am not at all convinced that the upper level managerial class is at all more productive or efficient. There seem to be many more high level management positions relative to production workers.

Both upper and lower levels of the labor force are LESS VALUABLE, not more. The "more productive" is a misnomer. They are not "more productive" -- the popular cliche about "higher worker productivity" is just semantics to make workers feel good. The truth is that their value is lower and continues to decline in the competitive environment.

The harsh truth is that most workers are made LESS valuable by the new technology. Replacing workers with machines makes the workers less valuable, including the ones remaining who operate the new machines. Having a better machine to operate does not make that operator more valuable, but less valuable, with only a few exceptions. Usually the new technology makes the operator's job easier, and so the company can more easily find someone able to perform the simpler tasks.

So the new technologies generally are INcreasing the gap between the upper- and lower-income classes and making most workers LESS valuable and thus rightly pushing them down to a lower income level, which is what SHOULD happen to any factors of production which become cheaper.

But even with all this, the overall condition of the "middle class" (whatever that is) continues to improve, as we all benefit from the new technologies, including the replacement of higher-paid workers with machines and cheap labor. The competitive market and increased global trade is doing just fine at making us all better off, while a few uncompetitive crybabies continue to whine, and whine, and whine, and whine, and . . . .

So along with the increased living standard for the middle class, we have an even greater outcome from all our progress in technology: an increasingly larger and larger class of whiners.

 

[ZiprHead]

I don't think that the quality of life of the middle class would be improved by rich people dying in car accidents.

My quality of life would improve if I was one of their heirs. I, however, am not lucky enough to have a rich relative to leave money to me. Dammit!

 

[arkirk]

We don't have cleaner water or air or soil than we had 50 years ago.

What are you smoking??

Wages for most have stagnated so long some think it is the norm. Except wealth and profits are rising.

Buying a more expensive home with 50 more square feet just isn't a consolation.

Wages have only stagnated since the crash.

Or are you lower class, not middle class, and thus seeing long-term stagnant wages?

Loren, you are wrong. The stagnation started in ernest as the outset of the '80's and the Reagan administration. The crash was the outcome of many years of wage stagnation and unsustainable debt due to people trying to maintain a lifestyle they thought they deserved (mostly a advertising sell job) with credit card debt. unsustainable housing mortgages, corporate abandonment of American workers, and government involvement in union busting.

Human beings are not so insane that they beat on the doors of builders screaming for larger houses. Only people obsessed with the capitalist dog and pony show act like that and it is sometimes questionable how human they are. Active people in our society are hammered with countless advertizing messages every day of their lives...only a few take ALL THE BAIT...HOOK LINE AND SINKER....AND they usually make asses out of themselves condemning all the inferior ones who are not so sold. A philosophy born of commerce is ill informed in the social graces.