Cruz: SC’s biggest loser?

[funinspace]

I thought this was a good summary of the difficulty facing Ted Cruz at this point.
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/...why-ted-cruz-is-south-carolina-biggest-loser/

Cruz’s assumption was that once other candidates that appealed to social conservatives like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum dropped out, he could count on a united evangelical vote. But what Trump showed us in South Carolina is that there is no such thing as a united bloc of religious conservatives. Or even of Tea Party voters that should, in theory, also be flocking to Cruz. What’s killing Cruz is that a lot of people who ought not to be voting for someone with Trump’s record are doing so. Cruz is right that he is the principled conservative that represents the beliefs of these voters. But they are still voting for Trump.

Trump may be hitting a ceiling at about one-third of the vote. But that bloc is largely composed of the Tea Party and evangelicals that Cruz assumed would never stick with the frontrunner. If this pattern is repeated in the SEC states, Cruz will lose them. And once you get past that point in the calendar, the GOP race moves to Northern, Midwestern and southern states where Cruz’s brand of conservatism has even less of a constituency. Trump may triumph there too, especially if Rubio is forced to compete with Kasich. But whatever happens in those states, the least likely outcome there would be victories for Cruz.

It will be interesting to see how Super Tuesday turns out. Rubio might start catching up to Trump now with Bush out. Though with Kasich not giving up, it might just siphon off enough votes that Rubio still won’t get many delegates, and even be stymied as a close second in most (or even all) of the races where Cruz ins't leading. Carson’s Don Quixote sloooowwwww waaaallllkkkkk toooo tttthhhhheeeee eeeexxxxxxiiiittttt will bleed Cruz a little. Though some of Carson's crazed supporters may also go Trump's way as his campaign unwinds. Cruz will still probably hold on to Texas, denying Rubio a chance at it, along with 1 or 2 others. I don’t have any real clue as to the calculus for Rubio or Cruz after Super Tuesday, but unless one of them can seize most of the votes from the demise of Bush and maybe Kasich, the chances of a brokered convention will start increasing after that. It will be interesting to see new poll numbers in these states as they will probably come out towards the end of the week.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Cruz is spliting the evangelicals with Trump. Which raises a whole lot of questions like... what in the hell are evangelicals voting for Trump for? If it isn't religious purity, it must be religiously backed intolerance.

Cruz's only hope is a three man debate. Trump can't fake it for an hour or two amongst just a couple of other candidates. Right?

 

[Terrell]

Cruz is spliting the evangelicals with Trump. Which raises a whole lot of questions like... what in the hell are evangelicals voting for Trump for? If it isn't religious purity, it must be religiously backed intolerance.

Cruz's only hope is a three man debate. Trump can't fake it for an hour or two amongst just a couple of other candidates. Right?

If enough of Trump's voters are really voting with their middle finger, it might not matter.

 

[funinspace]

Cruz is spliting the evangelicals with Trump. Which raises a whole lot of questions like... what in the hell are evangelicals voting for Trump for? If it isn't religious purity, it must be religiously backed intolerance.

Cruz's only hope is a three man debate. Trump can't fake it for an hour or two amongst just a couple of other candidates. Right?

If enough of Trump's voters are really voting with their middle finger, it might not matter.

LOL...and besides, I suspect that Trump has enough gas to punch thru an hour.

I suspect that some Trump evangelical supporters think he can fix the US economy. I also suspect that some evangelicals think DC is rigged for the big money, and that they think Trump won't play the same old game. I actually think Cruz would do better in a 2 man race than in a 3 way, but I also don't see that happening any time soon. The longer Trump can keep it divided, the better his chances.

 

[Terrell]

If enough of Trump's voters are really voting with their middle finger, it might not matter.

LOL...and besides, I suspect that Trump has enough gas to punch thru an hour.

I suspect that some Trump evangelical supporters think he can fix the US economy. I also suspect that some evangelicals think DC is rigged for the big money, and that they think Trump won't play the same old game. I actually think Cruz would do better in a 2 man race than in a 3 way, but I also don't see that happening any time soon. The longer Trump can keep it divided, the better his chances.

I can agree with that. I suspect that The Donald's stance against Muslim immigration carries more weight with this group, among others, than people are willing to openly admit. I also suspect that if either Cruz or Rubio left, Trump might get a bigger share of their voters than we expect. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[fromderinside]

Cruz is spliting the evangelicals with Trump. Which raises a whole lot of questions like... what in the hell are evangelicals voting for Trump for? If it isn't religious purity, it must be religiously backed intolerance.

Cruz's only hope is a three man debate. Trump can't fake it for an hour or two amongst just a couple of other candidates. Right?

Low Information Voter = Evangelical

Why did I have to bring this Live formula to your attention?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Cruz is spliting the evangelicals with Trump. Which raises a whole lot of questions like... what in the hell are evangelicals voting for Trump for? If it isn't religious purity, it must be religiously backed intolerance.

Cruz's only hope is a three man debate. Trump can't fake it for an hour or two amongst just a couple of other candidates. Right?

I wouldn't bet on that. But if you put it that way, they are all faking it.

 

[funinspace]

I forgot to add that SLD was much more on the money back in December than I thought possible on Trump's chances to win the Repug nomination. Though I still doubt he will get the nomination. The chances of a brokered convention and it being super cantankerous seems to be quite plausible. But I wouldn't make any predictions until after Super Tuesday.

 

[fromderinside]

I forgot to add that SLD was much more on the money back in December than I thought possible on Trump's chances to win the Repug nomination. Though I still doubt he will get the nomination. The chances of a brokered convention and it being super cantankerous seems to be quite plausible. But I wouldn't make any predictions until after Super Tuesday.

Its a done deal. Anyone remember Ronaraygun spouting stuff like "call a spade a spade" back in '80s? What the nation wants is a successful, recognizable, leader, who sezs what ever he can get through his mouth. Trump is the hero of the "we can all get rich" minded idiot. No stopping him. I'm setting out welcome mats for miners who want to find gold on the Elk as we speak.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I forgot to add that SLD was much more on the money back in December than I thought possible on Trump's chances to win the Repug nomination. Though I still doubt he will get the nomination. The chances of a brokered convention and it being super cantankerous seems to be quite plausible. But I wouldn't make any predictions until after Super Tuesday.

Its a done deal. Anyone remember Ronaraygun spouting stuff like "call a spade a spade" back in '80s? What the nation wants is a successful, recognizable, leader, who sezs what ever he can get through his mouth. Trump is the hero of the "we can all get rich" minded idiot. No stopping him. I'm setting out welcome mats for miners who want to find gold on the Elk as we speak.

Trump has to deal with losing the hispanic vote with only 1 to 4 at best and the black vote closer to 1 to 20. Winning the election with those numbers will be very hard.

 

[fromderinside]

Its a done deal. Anyone remember Ronaraygun spouting stuff like "call a spade a spade" back in '80s? What the nation wants is a successful, recognizable, leader, who sezs what ever he can get through his mouth. Trump is the hero of the "we can all get rich" minded idiot. No stopping him. I'm setting out welcome mats for miners who want to find gold on the Elk as we speak.

Trump has to deal with losing the hispanic vote with only 1 to 4 at best and the black vote closer to 1 to 20. Winning the election with those numbers will be very hard.

Its possible Trump will continue to abrade Hispanics. I don't think so though. He'll adopt a guest worker program and double down on the Indian brain transfer to US industry and blacks too, like the appearance of a winner rather than a woman to lead them. Don't count on the numbers you just listed. Remember what Raygun did with Carter's labor support?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump has to deal with losing the hispanic vote with only 1 to 4 at best and the black vote closer to 1 to 20. Winning the election with those numbers will be very hard.

Its possible Trump will continue to abrade Hispanics. I don't think so though. He'll adopt a guest worker program and double down on the Indian brain transfer to US industry and blacks too, like the appearance of a winner rather than a woman to lead them. Don't count on the numbers you just listed. Remember what Raygun did with Carter's labor support?

Clinton will likely have a Julian Castro of sorts on the ticket.

 

[arkirk]

Its possible Trump will continue to abrade Hispanics. I don't think so though. He'll adopt a guest worker program and double down on the Indian brain transfer to US industry and blacks too, like the appearance of a winner rather than a woman to lead them. Don't count on the numbers you just listed. Remember what Raygun did with Carter's labor support?

Clinton will likely have a Julian Castro of sorts on the ticket.

Not so fast, Jimmy. Hillary has nothing to offer the people if she get elected...except more kleptocracy. She is probably no better than Trump in reality. You need to read the novel "It Can't Happen Here" by Sinclair Lewis to get an understanding of people like Hillary. Whatever her political label is, she is 100% focused on her own self enrichment. We have a long history of people like Hillary in our government. The nomination is not yet in the bag for this woman, but we had better start waking up to the reality of just how big a liability Clinton is anywhere near the top of our government.

 

[Shadowy Man]

I suspect that The Donald's stance against Muslim immigration carries more weight with this group, among others, than people are willing to openly admit.

What I find interesting is that his statements about Muslim immigration were somehow considered more noteworthy than his statement that he's willing to murder the families of ISIS members.

 

[Terrell]

I suspect that The Donald's stance against Muslim immigration carries more weight with this group, among others, than people are willing to openly admit.

What I find interesting is that his statements about Muslim immigration were somehow considered more noteworthy than his statement that he's willing to murder the families of ISIS members.

Wouldn't surprise me if the same crowd was okay with that too.

 

[Shadowy Man]

What I find interesting is that his statements about Muslim immigration were somehow considered more noteworthy than his statement that he's willing to murder the families of ISIS members.

Wouldn't surprise me if the same crowd was okay with that too.

I'm not saying they wouldn't but it would seem to me that fighting terrorism with terrorism would be a more extreme position than simple denial of entry. But no media source has said much about his statements.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Cruz is spliting the evangelicals with Trump. Which raises a whole lot of questions like... what in the hell are evangelicals voting for Trump for? If it isn't religious purity, it must be religiously backed intolerance.

Cruz's only hope is a three man debate. Trump can't fake it for an hour or two amongst just a couple of other candidates. Right?

If enough of Trump's voters are really voting with their middle finger, it might not matter.

What Terrell said.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Most evangelicals I know subscribe to the prosperity gospel in some form or fashion. That being the case, Trump must be seen as being divinely favored. Cruz doesn't have as much money, so he must not have as much of God's favor.

 

[Sarpedon]

As I posited in the "Who will win the Republican Nomination" poll, Trump is targetting the racists, Cruz the evangelicals, there's overlap between the two groups, and that the lure of racism will be stronger. Plus Cruz is a reptile.

 

[aeebee50]

It appears the people are tired of politicians.