• Welcome to the Internet Infidels Discussion Board.

The probability of another nuclear bomb being dropped

 
 
 
R

rousseau

Contributor
Joined
Jun 23, 2010
Messages
13,762
Doing some basic math in my head, I figure the probability of another nuclear detonation is a function of time and the existence of nuclear weapons:

While nuclear weapons exist, the probability that another one is dropped approaches 1 with the passage of time

And so it's imperative that, in the future, nuclear weapons are wiped completely from the earth.

Is it as simple as this?
 
rousseau said:
Doing some basic math in my head, I figure the probability of another nuclear detonation is a function of time and the existence of nuclear weapons:

While nuclear weapons exist, the probability that another one is dropped approaches 1 with the passage of time

And so it's imperative that, in the future, nuclear weapons are wiped completely from the earth.

Is it as simple as this?
Click to expand...

No. The nuclear genie is already out of the bottle. You can't stuff it back in. Enough people have the knowledge that it would take a catastrophic event, like a nuclear war, to erase that knowledge from mankind. As ironic as that might seem.
 
Yes, you don't want normal countries disarming themselves and then only Iran and North Korea be in possession of nuclear weapons.
 
Derec said:
Yes, you don't want normal countries disarming themselves and then only Iran and North Korea be in possession of nuclear weapons.
Click to expand...

That would be great. They would nuke each other - problem solved.
You probably think that your house would be #1 on their target list though...
 
The next nuclear bomb will not be dropped, but detonated - likely by an Islamic terrorist. Nuclear war between nation states can be cast in the column of just ain't going to happen. Question is, if a terrorist is able to detonate a nuclear bomb in a major city, what's the response?
 
KeepTalking said:
rousseau said:
Doing some basic math in my head, I figure the probability of another nuclear detonation is a function of time and the existence of nuclear weapons:

While nuclear weapons exist, the probability that another one is dropped approaches 1 with the passage of time

And so it's imperative that, in the future, nuclear weapons are wiped completely from the earth.

Is it as simple as this?
Click to expand...

No. The nuclear genie is already out of the bottle. You can't stuff it back in. Enough people have the knowledge that it would take a catastrophic event, like a nuclear war, to erase that knowledge from mankind. As ironic as that might seem.
Click to expand...
So then another nuclear detonation is inevitable. If not, how does one stop it?
 
rousseau said:
KeepTalking said:
No. The nuclear genie is already out of the bottle. You can't stuff it back in. Enough people have the knowledge that it would take a catastrophic event, like a nuclear war, to erase that knowledge from mankind. As ironic as that might seem.
Click to expand...
So then another nuclear detonation is inevitable. If not, how does one stop it?
Click to expand...

The same way that one stops the use of artillery - eliminate animosity between peoples. In other words, as you said it is inevitable.
 
Trausti said:
The next nuclear bomb will not be dropped, but detonated - likely by an Islamic terrorist. Nuclear war between nation states can be cast in the column of just ain't going to happen. Question is, if a terrorist is able to detonate a nuclear bomb in a major city, what's the response?
Click to expand...

i only know only white american christians terrorist dropped nuclear bomb
 
rousseau said:
Doing some basic math in my head, I figure the probability of another nuclear detonation is a function of time and the existence of nuclear weapons:

While nuclear weapons exist, the probability that another one is dropped approaches 1 with the passage of time

And so it's imperative that, in the future, nuclear weapons are wiped completely from the earth.

Is it as simple as this?
Click to expand...

No, the probability doesn't approach 1 - and that's because you are being too optimistic. Humanity has only just started to defile itself. Even if we are able to survive any multitude of 'natural' phenomena that have the capacity to wipe us out, the probability distribution for nuclear annihiliation starts to decrease as we develop newer technologies that make nuclear detonation look like a firecracker. Have you even seen any of the Star Wars movies?

aa
 
Syed said:
Trausti said:
The next nuclear bomb will not be dropped, but detonated - likely by an Islamic terrorist. Nuclear war between nation states can be cast in the column of just ain't going to happen. Question is, if a terrorist is able to detonate a nuclear bomb in a major city, what's the response?
Click to expand...

i only know only white american christians terrorist dropped nuclear bomb
Click to expand...
How exactly do you define 'terrorist,' Syed?
How do you make the word apply to a choice made in a declared war between nation states?
 
rousseau said:
Doing some basic math in my head, I figure the probability of another nuclear detonation is a function of time and the existence of nuclear weapons:

While nuclear weapons exist, the probability that another one is dropped approaches 1 with the passage of time

And so it's imperative that, in the future, nuclear weapons are wiped completely from the earth.

Is it as simple as this?
Click to expand...

And you have a magic wand that can get rid of all nuclear weapons?

A U-235 weapon does not require any great sophistication so long as you're willing to accept a few percent chance of failure. If you just take the pieces in your hands and slam them together you have about a 50% chance of killing a city. The faster you manage to push them the more reliable it becomes.

Obtaining that U-235 is the limiting factor but it's not really all that limiting. Figuring average concentrations I own enough U-235 to make a bomb--admittedly it would take a lot of refining to separate the uranium from the ground. It's not like I own a uranium mine or anything, that's just from some stupid scraps of land that have been in the family for a couple of generations now. Any farmer or rancher owns far more.

Note that this is a problem of scale, not of know-how--any two-bit dictator can overcome it.

If you want cheaper, United Nuclear will sell you uranium, currently at $23/gm for very high purity. Buying a bomb's worth would no doubt set alarm bells ringing but if you used enough identities and did it slowly enough I would think you could get it without questions being asked.

Likewise, a cavatron is not that complex, I would think a decent engineer could build one. It's quite capable of producing weapons-grade material. Again, the problem is simply one of scale--cavatrons are slow and power hungry. Bomb-makers use things like gas centrifuges because they're cheaper and faster. (Note that a high purity source is not required although it will speed things up as the time and power requirements are based on the number of atoms you process.)

Thus it should be obvious that with sufficient money you can build a bomb, no specialized engineering needed. That means it's impossible to prevent them from being built.
 
Why develop nukes when you can have thousands of assassination drones fly in and "sterilize" the population center? This way you can come in and move your people into the houses.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
rousseau said:
Doing some basic math in my head, I figure the probability of another nuclear detonation is a function of time and the existence of nuclear weapons:

While nuclear weapons exist, the probability that another one is dropped approaches 1 with the passage of time

And so it's imperative that, in the future, nuclear weapons are wiped completely from the earth.

Is it as simple as this?
Click to expand...
And you have a magic wand that can get rid of all nuclear weapons?
Click to expand...

Nope, I'm only talking the probability of nuclear holocaust from a high level.

And it only took us 13 posts to conclude with 'despite being an intelligent species we're going to blow ourselves up eventually'.
 
Trausti said:
The next nuclear bomb will not be dropped, but detonated - likely by an Islamic terrorist. Nuclear war between nation states can be cast in the column of just ain't going to happen. Question is, if a terrorist is able to detonate a nuclear bomb in a major city, what's the response?
Click to expand...

This is pretty naive. You are discounting the possibility of a nuke launched from one country against another country in retaliation to a false alert and/or a mistake. Additionally, a small scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan isn't out of the question if the right set of events occurred.
 
Axulus said:
Trausti said:
The next nuclear bomb will not be dropped, but detonated - likely by an Islamic terrorist. Nuclear war between nation states can be cast in the column of just ain't going to happen. Question is, if a terrorist is able to detonate a nuclear bomb in a major city, what's the response?
Click to expand...

This is pretty naive. You are discounting the possibility of a nuke launched from one country against another country in retaliation to a false alert and/or a mistake. Additionally, a small scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan isn't out of the question if the right set of events occurred.
Click to expand...

You can only win a nuclear war if your opponent doesn't have nukes. MAD is pretty good at preventing nuclear Armageddon. There's always the chance there can be a slip up; but if countries were so lax about their use of nukes, it'd have already happened.
 
IMO, the only practical solution to avoid an accidental nuclear holocaust is a star wars defense. But, (as Reagan found out) just the act of working on such a project causes the rest of the world to build even more nuclear weapons.

There will never be any solution to a terrorist nuclear detonation but that will not destroy the planet anyway.
 
Trausti said:
Axulus said:
This is pretty naive. You are discounting the possibility of a nuke launched from one country against another country in retaliation to a false alert and/or a mistake. Additionally, a small scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan isn't out of the question if the right set of events occurred.
Click to expand...

You can only win a nuclear war if your opponent doesn't have nukes. MAD is pretty good at preventing nuclear Armageddon. There's always the chance there can be a slip up; but if countries were so lax about their use of nukes, it'd have already happened.
Click to expand...

That logic does not follow. There could be, say, a .2% yearly probably a fuckup could trigger a nuclear war. We wouldn't then expect it to have already occurred.

Here are twenty documented incidents that could have started accidental nuclear war:

http://nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-is...dents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm

Here is an incident where two nuclear bombs got dropped (unintentionally) on NC when an air force bomber flying over broke in half.

Or, as Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara put it back then, "By the slightest margin of chance, literally the failure of two wires to cross, a nuclear explosion was averted."
Click to expand...

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/12/us/north-carolina-nuclear-bomb-drop/
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom