Here Come The Trump Deficits

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stanco...cits-officially-begin-this-week/#2637a4da3365

The new U.S. normal of $1 trillion or more annual federal budget deficits will officially begin this week when the Congressional Budget Office releases its economic and budget outlook report showing that the deficit will be at least that high every year Donald Trump is president.
Although there have been private sector projections for months (including my post from last October) that the government's red ink will hit and exceed a trillion dollars for years to come, this will be the first report by Congress's official budget watchdog since last year's big tax cut and this year's spending deal were enacted that will show the deficit rising precipitously and staying at that very high level through the next 10 years.
...
For the record (and before the trolls come out to play), there were indeed four consecutive trillion dollar federal deficits during the Obama administration from fiscal 2009-2012. Those deficits were primarily caused by the Great Recession and were temporary. By contrast, the trillion dollar Trump deficits are permanent changes to the federal budget outlook caused by enacted reductions in revenues and increases in spending.
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The Trump Btownbacking of the US economy has officially started. Next. Using the deficits to justify cutting Social Security, Medicare and the safety net. Puls the GOP trying to attack the CBO as fake news, deep state, anti-Trump high tax loving bad actors.

This budget year will see Trump's deficits about double the deficits in Obama's last year.

 

[masterpeastheater]

It's all Obama's fault! And this proves we need to cut taxes on the high earners even moar! Come on that's exactly what the conservolibertarians will say.

 

[James Brown]

My Republican representative wrote an op-ed calling for a Balanced Budget Amendment to make these terrible deficits go away.

Such logic. He complained that the Federal Budget hasn't been balanced for nearly twenty years. In his article, he did not invoke the name "Clinton", nor did he explain how we were able to have a balanced budget without the Balanced Budget Amendment twenty years ago, but we need that straight jacket now.

He also did not remind his readers that he was a huge supporter of Trump's tax cuts last year, despite nearly everyone predicting that the deficit would increase. And here we are right on schedule.

I replied to him arguing that a cynic <ahem> would think that this was all part of some grand plan:

Phase One - reduce taxes, particularly on the wealthy voters who provide the most campaign contributions.
Phase Two - shake your head ruefully at the increasing deficits
Phase Three - hope for fantasies outrageous growth rates or propose unfeasible political tricks like a Balanced Budget Amendment
Phase Four - when Phase Three inevitably fails, sigh heavily and declare that we have no choice but slash domestic spending, particularly on the middle-class mainstays like Social Security and Medicare. Defense won't be touched because we're surrounded by scary enemies that we've created, but everything else is on the chopping block.
Phase Five - if the deficits do indeed decline, declare victory and announce that it's time to reduce taxes so that we can return money back to the people. Repeat Phase One.

I told my Representative that his op-ed is a formal announcement that we've entered Phase Two.

 

[funinspace]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stanco...cits-officially-begin-this-week/#2637a4da3365

The new U.S. normal of $1 trillion or more annual federal budget deficits will officially begin this week when the Congressional Budget Office releases its economic and budget outlook report showing that the deficit will be at least that high every year Donald Trump is president.
Although there have been private sector projections for months (including my post from last October) that the government's red ink will hit and exceed a trillion dollars for years to come, this will be the first report by Congress's official budget watchdog since last year's big tax cut and this year's spending deal were enacted that will show the deficit rising precipitously and staying at that very high level through the next 10 years.

Cool, I had no Idea that you write for Forbes

Yeah, I was pointing out the first 12 months of Treasury Dept. numbers about a month ago:
https://talkfreethought.org/showthr...n-later&p=515687&highlight=deficit#post515687

The US Treasury total debt increase from January to February 2018 by $362 billion. I prefer to use the Treasury Departments numbers and it removes all the number games. FWIW, the deficit over the last 12 months was about $900 billion, and now accelerating thanks to the Repug/FFvC 1 Percenter tax give away.

If our economy slows down much at all, the deficit numbers will launch even further...the next recession could provide incredible numbers.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Clearly the answer is to find a bogeyman, increase military spending, dissolve Congress, round up all the liberals, ...

 

[Harry Bosch]

This entire thread is a bunch of bullshit. Everyone knows that republicans balance the budget and democrats grow the deficit.

 

[Ford]

Phase One - reduce taxes, particularly on the wealthy voters who provide the most campaign contributions.
Phase Two - shake your head ruefully at the increasing deficits
Phase Three - hope for fantasies outrageous growth rates or propose unfeasible political tricks like a Balanced Budget Amendment
Phase Four - when Phase Three inevitably fails, sigh heavily and declare that we have no choice but slash domestic spending, particularly on the middle-class mainstays like Social Security and Medicare. Defense won't be touched because we're surrounded by scary enemies that we've created, but everything else is on the chopping block.
Phase Five - if the deficits do indeed decline, declare victory and announce that it's time to reduce taxes so that we can return money back to the people. Repeat Phase One.

I told my Representative that his op-ed is a formal announcement that we've entered Phase Two.

You missed one: Blame the Democrats.

Whatever problems arise as the result of the tax cuts/budget are clearly the fault of the Democrats in Congress. Republicans had a lean, sensible budget plan and were going to tackle those deficits, but the nefarious liberals led by Nancy Pelosi (gotta mention her) and Chuck Schumer forced the brave Republicans to insert irresponsible and exorbitant spending measures into the plans! Just like they somehow managed to scuttle the DACA reform that Republicans really, really wanted to happen. See, even though they don't have control of any branch of government, the Democrats have (or will) make a mess of everything.

Oh, and Obama. If the economy takes a downturn (leading to lower revenues and increasing deficits) it is all Obama's fault.

 

[Horatio Parker]

There's nothing to fear from the deficit per se.

Much worse that we don't take care of our people, and keep a significant portion of the sidelined. That lost output is lost forever.

 

[RVonse]

I think its terrible but the blame needs to be placed on congress and not the POTUS. Budgets are the job for congressmen.

If you want to blame the POTUS for making bad executive decisions with the military thats fine. But dont blame him for allowing congressmen to act like children with the budget.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I think its terrible but the blame needs to be placed on congress and not the POTUS. Budgets are the job for congressmen.

If you want to blame the POTUS for making bad executive decisions with the military thats fine. But dont blame him for allowing congressmen to act like children with the budget.

It was Trump that championed tax cuts loud and long and lead the charge for them. He did not argue for a balanced budget or economic sanity and prudence. The GOP Congress went along willingly with this, but it is not like they forced this on Trump in any way.
Trump thus gets a large share of the blame, as competent economists warned us of these deficits that would result from these massive tax cuts.

 

[funinspace]

I think its terrible but the blame needs to be placed on congress and not the POTUS. Budgets are the job for congressmen.

If you want to blame the POTUS for making bad executive decisions with the military thats fine. But dont blame him for allowing congressmen to act like children with the budget.

It was Trump that championed tax cuts loud and long and lead the charge for them. He did not argue for a balanced budget or economic sanity and prudence. The GOP Congress went along willingly with this, but it is not like they forced this on Trump in any way.
Trump thus gets a large share of the blame, as competent economists warned us of these deficits that would result from these massive tax cuts.

^Absolutely. Additionally, if the POTUS thinks the legislation is quite bad, they do have the authority to veto the legislation. And this horrible bill passed by a razors margin. Also, the POTUS can let a bill become law, by simply doing nothing. Letting people know he/she is not thrilled with the bill, but won't get in the way. Without FFvC's loud constant and vocal support, I don't think the Repugs would have been able to ram the tax cut thru.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think its terrible but the blame needs to be placed on congress and not the POTUS. Budgets are the job for congressmen.

If you want to blame the POTUS for making bad executive decisions with the military thats fine. But dont blame him for allowing congressmen to act like children with the budget.

His Flatulence happily signed the tax cuts that are the main cause.

 

[Horatio Parker]

They're all responsible.

Some of the Dems too, I suspect. They posture like liberals but get to tap the same donors as the Repugs.

 

[PyramidHead]

There is no story here as deficits are not an actual problem nor will they be an actual problem for the foreseeable future. People not having enough food, a home, and the ability to get health care is an actual problem. Our country has ample food, empty homes, and adequate resources to provide for everybody's basic health. We could literally just decide to solve this problem and not really notice any inconvenience, for the most part. We could pay everybody's student loans off and watch the economy explode in the next decade. Or we could invest in making every metropolis accessible, easy to navigate, and safe. Wouldn't it be cool to live in a place where all the roads and bridges were maintained, travel was quick and less congested, everybody was well-fed and educated, and nobody turned to drugs out of sheer economic desperation? The money is there. Instead, we worry about stuff like deficits that don't mean anything.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/yellen-says-tax-cuts-blowing-150600910.html

• Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and a team of economists argue that tax cuts are blowing a hole in the federal budget.
• The argument, made in a Washington Post op-ed, rejects a Hoover Institution study that blamed entitlements for trillion-dollar deficits forecast for the years ahead.
• Though Fed leaders including Yellen and others for years pleaded for fiscal assistance from Congress, the op-ed argues that the stimulus was ill-timed.

Last year's aggressive tax cuts are at the heart of a worsening budget situation that will see deficits surge in the years ahead, according to an op-ed by former Fed Chair Janet Yellen and others.
The essay, published in Sunday's Washington Post , rebuts a study from Stanford University's Hoover Institution that blamed entitlement spending for the nation's worsening financial picture. Economists expect the shortfall to surpass $1 trillion in 2019 and worsen.

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[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...5d477d9a226_story.html?utm_term=.e7eb5e7adbed

Martin Neil Baily, Jason Furman, Alan B. Krueger, Laura D’Andrea Tyson and Janet L. Yellen are all former chairs of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.



The U.S. unemployment rate is down to 4.1 percent, and economic growth could well increase in 2018. Consumer and business confidence is high. What could go wron
...
The deficit, of course, reflects the gap between spending and revenue. It is dishonest to single out entitlements for blame. The federal budget was in surplus from 1998 through 2001, but large tax cuts and unfunded wars have been huge contributors to our current deficit problem. The primary reason the deficit in coming years will now be higher than had been expected is the reduction in tax revenue from last year’s tax cuts, not an increase in spending. This year, revenue is expected to fall below 17 percent of gross domestic product — the lowest it has been in the past 50 years with the exception of the aftermath of the past two recessions.

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So, slash revenue and blame entitlement spending. Same old dirty tricks from the conservatives.

 

[dismal]

This entire thread is a bunch of bullshit. Everyone knows that republicans balance the budget and democrats grow the deficit.

Yeah, plus I've been reading for years at this very website that deficits are super-awesome for the economy.

 

[Elixir]

This entire thread is a bunch of bullshit. Everyone knows that republicans balance the budget and democrats grow the deficit.

Yeah, plus I've been reading for years at this very website that deficits are super-awesome for the economy.

They're definitely super-awesome for Rethuglicans, especially now that their whipping-girl has become irrelevant.

 

[James Brown]

This entire thread is a bunch of bullshit. Everyone knows that republicans balance the budget and democrats grow the deficit.

Yeah, plus I've been reading for years at this very website that deficits are super-awesome for the economy.

Context is everything, isn't it?

Some people (at this very website as well) argue that deficits are a powerful tool to be applied at the appropriate time in the economic cycle.

Others argue that the proper application of a deficit is in fact only relevant depending on which political party is in power at the time.

 

[Horatio Parker]

A deficit has meaning in context. In the face of trade surpluses, e.g., they can be inflationary.

Here, with trade deficits the way they are, govt deficits are required.

All this deficit brouhaha is based on a myth, a myth that we borrow money for deficit spending. That's gold standard thinking, where the money supply, limited in quantity by commodity reserves, can only be expanded by borrowing.

What we do is issue debt. The purpose of which is one, corporate welfare AKA providing investors with a safe investment for the dollars, and two, to maintain the Fed target interest rate.

Trump's increases will probably have little effect. The money is largely going to savers, likely to be invested. So it will add to asset inflation, but not consumer price inflation.