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The World in 2030

Supporting the idea that the next king should be the guy next in line legally isn't a real indication of popularity.

Except they were also asked whether he should abdicate in favor of Prince William; so it's not at all like how you've decided to characterize it.
His characterization doesn't even make any sense. Who would conduct a survey just to ask if the Brits were aware that Charles was next in line? And then, like, publish the results as if they meant something?

I could see asking American students if they know Charles' relationship to Elizabeth's crown. But that's critical of American education, not Charles' popularity.
 
I may not be around to see it, but my crystal ball...
Is this the same crystal ball that said Ron Paul could be a king maker?
...tells me what the world will be like sixteen years from now, and it suggests some very big changes. Most prominent of these is the collapse of the dollar.
I'm stunned! :eek: <--- stunned face look

The emerging paradigm is that of "gold trade settlement." That is not a gold standard, however, if gold trade settlement turns out not to be viable, it could lead to a gold standard. Already China has currency swap agreements with nearly thirty countries and other countries that do not include China are also reaching such agreements. These agreements allow countries to settle their foreign exchange accounts with something other than dollars and ultimately, with gold.
The value of gold has been all over the fucking place. The value of the dollar over the same period of time... relatively static.
Meanwhile, the US finances are so bad that we will either have to default on our debts or create massive inflation to pay the debt in cheaper dollars. Either alternative would bring down the dollar if it doesn't fall even before that.
Or raise taxes.
 
His characterization doesn't even make any sense. Who would conduct a survey just to ask if the Brits were aware that Charles was next in line? And then, like, publish the results as if they meant something?

I could see asking American students if they know Charles' relationship to Elizabeth's crown. But that's critical of American education, not Charles' popularity.

For me, it's just mindboggling that someone who clearly doesn't know the first thing about how people here actually look at our monarchies can state with such certainty that they're going to be topppled in just a few short years from now. Even as something of a republican (Dutch version of the word, not the American, just in case it isn't clear to someone) myself, I can't possibly see the Dutch monarchy collapse by 2030; certainly not because of public opinion. The only European monarchy he mentioned I could actually see fall is the Belgian one; but then only if their political fracture worsens again and Flanders and Wallonia split from each other with the former joining the Netherlands and the latter joining France so that no country is left for the monarchy to "rule" over.
 
The dollar is actually doing quite well.
Compared to what? Other inflated currencies? The dollar is doing very poorly over any substantial time, unless you want to compare it to other inflated currencies, which is pretty much meaningless..
Inflation is also relatively low.
Depends how you define inflation.

Why don't you go look at along term chart of the USD versus copper oil gold or any commodity. The USD is a joke, unless you measure it against other crap.
 
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I wouldn't want to predict the shape of the world geopolitical scene as it'll be in 16 months, let alone 16 years.
 
Compared to what? Other inflated currencies? The dollar is doing very poorly over any substantial time, unless you want to compare it to other inflated currencies, which is pretty much meaningless..
Inflation is also relatively low.
Depends how you define inflation.

Why don't you go look at along term chart of the USD versus copper oil gold or any commodity. The USD is a joke, unless you measure it against other crap.

What does this mean, "other crap"? If all the other currencies are inflating too, that doesn't mean they're all 'crap'.

What makes the US dollar a 'joke'? What would make it not a 'joke'?

You do realise that real income and real consumption has been climbing every decade, for decades?

Someone magically transported from fifty years ago might be shocked by the nominal price of goods and services. Until she saw the nominal incomes that households make, and how much more a median household can consume now compared to 1964.
 
His characterization doesn't even make any sense. Who would conduct a survey just to ask if the Brits were aware that Charles was next in line? And then, like, publish the results as if they meant something?

I could see asking American students if they know Charles' relationship to Elizabeth's crown. But that's critical of American education, not Charles' popularity.

For me, it's just mindboggling that someone who clearly doesn't know the first thing about how people here actually look at our monarchies can state with such certainty that they're going to be topppled in just a few short years from now. Even as something of a republican (Dutch version of the word, not the American, just in case it isn't clear to someone) myself, I can't possibly see the Dutch monarchy collapse by 2030; certainly not because of public opinion. The only European monarchy he mentioned I could actually see fall is the Belgian one; but then only if their political fracture worsens again and Flanders and Wallonia split from each other with the former joining the Netherlands and the latter joining France so that no country is left for the monarchy to "rule" over.
And even that is probably not going to happen.
Wallons won't want to abandon their specific laws and customs to adopt the French ones, and I suppose the same is true for Flanders vs the Netherlands.
If European countries explode (Scotland, Flanders, Catalans, Basques, etc), I suspect the drive will be more towards a transforming EU into a "federation of regions" than re-uniting them with other countries.
 
Why don't you go look at along term chart of the USD versus copper oil gold or any commodity. The USD is a joke, unless you measure it against other crap.
Compared to all of those, the US dollar value has been stable. The others, not very stable.
 
I wouldn't want to predict the shape of the world geopolitical scene as it'll be in 16 months, let alone 16 years.

Bill hasn't even been able to do the former, despite several attempts over the years, somehow this makes him imminently qualified to do the latter. Color me unimpressed.
 
The globe in ten years is nearly impossible to predict, other than, there will be hot spots, some economies will have troubles, and BB will fail to properly predict electoral and economic results.
 
Though I don't disagree with the fact that the dollar will weaken, that it will collapse is hardly likely. It will only do that if there is a complete and utter breakdown in the U.S., something like the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting, along with multiple asteroid impacts, the San Andreas fault slipping about 1000 feet overnight and the election of Donald Trump as president.

All Federal revenues will supposedly be directed to federally administered social programs only by the year 2025. Do you think that will happen?

It's hard to see how the dollar cannot fall as the world's reserve currency. We are currently averaging trillion dollar deficits and those are projected to increase as the baby boomers retire. We cannot possibly meet these expenses as will be forced to default. The alternative to default is to print the money and create massive inflation. That will also doom the dollar. I'm not claiming that the dollar will disappear, although that's a possibility. What I'm claiming is that it will cease to be the world's reserve currency. That will lead a very significant weakening of the dollar, a large increase in the price of imports, and a very significant lowering of the standard of living.
 
Compared to what? Other inflated currencies? The dollar is doing very poorly over any substantial time, unless you want to compare it to other inflated currencies, which is pretty much meaningless..
Depends how you define inflation.

Why don't you go look at along term chart of the USD versus copper oil gold or any commodity. The USD is a joke, unless you measure it against other crap.

What does this mean, "other crap"? If all the other currencies are inflating too, that doesn't mean they're all 'crap'.
It means they are all crap compared to commodities. Have look at any long term chart. It is self evident.

You do realise that real income and real consumption has been climbing every decade, for decades?
So? Not much of a case for the USD if true though.

Income...in real terms? It must be line ball in the last decade. And consumption may be going up, but if it's funded by debt it is unsustainable I'd say.
 
dystopian:

I've told you this before, but for fuck's sake, learn how to use the quote tag.

What am I doing wrong?

The proximity of countries does not matter so much in today's world. Only someone with blinders on could possibly think Russia will remain the largest recipient of European investment. Russia's long term economic growth prospects are minimal; especially when compared to China. And unlike Russia, China has not displayed outright hostility towards the EU or it's ambitions.

Natural gas in definitely dependent on geography. Without a pipeline, you cannot transport it cheaply. It has to be liquefied and that means you use up a whole lot of gas just keeping the rest liquid. That's why natural gas prices differ widely from region to region.

Russian growth prospects are limited by her declining population, but she has tremendous resources that European countries would like to exploit. What hostility has Russia shown to Europe's ambitions? There are lots of European countries doing business in Russia. She hadn't imposed sanctions on Europe until Europe joined the US' sanctions regime. Granted, Russia's commercial code and private property laws are antequated and not terribly compatible with the way Western Europe does business, but Russia is working on that and their bringing German experts to advise them on the necessary changes.

Despite their defense spending, I don't think any defense analysts think that Europe alone could stop a Russian invasion of Europe.

You mean no *Russian* defense analysts think that. Nobody else would seriously suggest that Russia could win a conventional war with Europe. At best, Russia might manage some early gains while the EU unifies its defense; but there is absolutely no way that a country with just 144 million people and an economy of 2 trillion dollars could possibly win a conventional conflict against the largest economy on the planet with an economy of more than 17 trillion dollars and a population of more than half a billion (and a nuclear conflict would be bad for everyone, so let's not even go there). Even if Russia had a significant technology advantage over the EU (which it doesn't, EU militaries have the advantage there); there was no way.
By your theory, Canada should eschew good relations with the US and look to China for her security.

You can't leave the nuclear threat out of it. Europe could decide to increase defense spending and reorganize their defenses. Fundamentally, they have the capability of defeating Russia. But they do not have the preparedness at this point in terms of ground troops. So if they lose their trust in the US they have a choice of increasing their defense spending and boosting their nuclear arsenals or reaching an understanding with Russia.


It absolutely should if the US had a habit of invading and annexing countries near Canada while giving them the finger and threatening them.

The US has attacked or invaded way more countries than the Russia has even thought of attacking and that even includes Europe where we attacked Kosovo. Russia has invaded exactly one country - Georgia, and she only did that after Georgia attacked and killed Russian peace-keepers in South Ossetia. Then Russia went in and occupied Tblisi, but she didn't annex Georgia and Putin didn't even set up a puppet government. The current Georgian regime is anti-Russian. She did not attack Crimea. She was permitted to have 25,000 troops there under their treaty for Sevastopol. Putin had a mere 6,000. All he did was replace occupation troops with combat troops to assure that Ukraine didn't try to reconquer Crimea after she seceded. I have seen no evidence that Russia invaded Ukraine despite Western media reports. The Ukrainian army was defeated because they were incompetent and walked into a trap set by the rebels. Again, contrary to US media reports, the Ukrainians were losing prior to the massive defeat at Donetsk. Just check out the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs. They admit to losing far more tanks and other fighting vehicles to the rebels than they conquered from them.

Meanwhile, despite our promise not to expand NATO eastward, the US has admitted nearly all of the Warsaw Pact nations into NATO and established missile bases there while openly admitting that we want to include Ukraine and Georgia as well. These are all very provocative actions by Europe against Russia. Far more than the other way round. And that's without even mentioning our invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan or out attacks on Serbia, Libya, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Syria. And then there's the coup d'état that we sponsored in Ukraine where we overthrew a democratically elected government. And we have the nerve to claim that RUSSIA is the aggressor? Meanwhile, NATO and EU countries have supported us in most of these operations.


Europe would have a great deal to gain by freer trade with Russia. The reason it isn't happening now is because the US doesn't want it to happen. It is Europe, not the US, that is suffering the most from sanctions against Russia.

The reason it isn't happening is entirely Russia's fault. You may not be aware of the rampant use of sanctions the Russian government is known for whenever a country says or does something they don't like. You can't have free tree trade with a country when that country finds an excuse to ban your cheese or whatever whenever they feel like it.

Free trade is something to be negotiated. A sovereign country is free to impose tariffs whenever if feels like it. It has been our policy for most our history. Meanwhile the US has blocked most favored nation status for Russia so it pretty much has to go it alone.

The reason the EU is more committed to the sanctions now is because we recognize that increased trade with Russia is a noose around the necks of some of our member states. It is not in our interest to increase trade with Russia so long as Russia's behavior doesn't change for good.

Russian behavior is a function of US and European behavior and, as I have noted, the US continues to block most favored nation status. It is the US that is blocking European trade with Russia. But Europe still has a lot of trade with Russia. If it didn't, there would be no point in imposing the current sanctions because the US doesn't have much trade with Russia.

As for us suffering from the sanctions; all I've noticed is my food's getting cheaper. The sanctions are certainly felt a great deal more in Russia.

I think you have it backward. Of course your food is cheaper because Russia isn't buying it. You may like the cheaper prices, but they are a tremendous burden on European farmers who cannot sell the produce. Meanwhile, Russia is buying these things in Latin America which could lead to a permanent loss of business for Europe.

But North Korea is so poor and so dependent on China that they can probably pull it off.

Yes, because crazy dictatorships that don't give a shit about their people have a long history of going 'sure, let's give up our power completely so the peasants can eat. No, no... I'll brook no opposition, don't you know that our nice big neighbors next door asked us nicely?'

The current dictator really has little power. He is dependent on lesser bureaucrats, and they are insisting on opening up N. Korea's economy. In a united Korea they could expect to retain considerable power within the larger bureaucracy.

With US power out of the picture, Taiwan would have no hope of preventing a Chinese invasion. But if China offers to do to Taiwan what it did to Hong Kong (essentially leave it alone), then Taiwanese would likely see that as preferable to getting wiped out.

Countries do not normally give up their independence just because they have no hope of preventing its lose. Also, given that Hong Kong has been embroiled in mass protests over the central government interfering with its shit, I doubt the Taiwanese would be very receptive to the idea.

Then China will just have to take it outright. Without US backing, Taiwan cannot remain independent.

Supporting the idea that the next king should be the guy next in line legally isn't a real indication of popularity.

Except they were also asked whether he should abdicate in favor of Prince William; so it's not at all like how you've decided to characterize it.

That doesn't change the point at all. Who do you think should succeed Obama? Biden or Hillary? At this point Hillary would be strongly favored in an election. But on the death of the president, most people would say Biden, because that's what the law says.



But the royal family has been connected to pedophilia as have many other British politicians. The difficulty is in getting the police and the judiciary to pursue these cases.

You're going to have to put forth some actual evidence instead of gossip mags and whatever you're pulling out of your ass.

That's going to take a little research that I don't have time for at the moment. I'll have to get back to you on that. But I should add that calling this a pedophilia scandal is actually an understatement. It is more like child trafficking rings. Children are being abducted and sold for many reasons, not just sex. It may be for their organs, for use in snuff pornography or even Satanic sacrifices. The bodies of 800 children were recently found in Ireland. They had been beheaded and dismembered which suggests that they were victims of Satanic rituals.

The other important point is that authorities are covering up these crimes. It's happening in many places, not just Britain. The reason I cite Britain is because the local police there seem to be getting disgusted with these cover ups and are going public and doing more thorough investigations. The issue has moved out of the tabloid media into the mainstream press. So it looks like Britain will lead the way, but there are a lot of fingers pointing at the royal family.

I'm not too familiar with Britain, but in the US much of this is revealed in a book called The Franklin Cover-Up by John DeCamp. It is available on-line.



The royal family in Holland also has such connections.

First of all, there is no royal family in Holland; you mean The Netherlands. Holland is just a region in the country, if you don't even know that much it's hard to take anything you say about the country seriously.

I'm well aware of the fact that Holland is a region of the Netherlands. I'm also well aware of the fact that that term is frequently used to refer to the entire country.

Secondly, no it doesn't.

Certainly, there's evidence of Child trafficking rings in the Netherlands. Whether there is hard evidence pointing to the royal family, I'm not sure. Certainly, many accusations have been directed at Prince Bernhard, but he is dead now. I've not heard any accusations against King Alexander.


It just hasn't been reported

Yet some random dude on the other side of the planet knows about it. No no, do go on. Tell me, someone from the actual fucking country you're talking about, how I don't know what's going here but you do.

I shall do that in due course.

But media in Holland as well as in Belgium haven't covered it.

That's because it isn't there. You do realize that we rank at the top of the world press freedom index, right? Knowing the way our media functions, there is *no way in hell* this type of scandal wouldn't be reported on if it was an actual thing instead of something you pulled out of your ass.

The media will not report on it until they have official information from the police or some other authoritative source. It's called CYA - cover your ass.
 
Why so pessimistic? Deaths through violence have been declining worldwide for a long time, and indicators of poverty and development have steadily improved. There will certainly be crises to be dealt with, but the outlook for global peace and prosperity has never been better.

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the prospect of war. Those are very good as well due largely to American foreign policy which simply provokes one country after another. So perhaps my predictions in the OP were a bit too optimistic.
 
Oh no. More predictions of how the dollar will collapse.

The people who have predicting this for the past 50+ years are not very good at predicting.

It almost happened in the 1970s. Volker managed to save the US from that fate. Unfortunately, Greenspan reversed a lot of Volker's policies.

Actually, I should have written 1979, and I should have spelled "Volcker" correctly.
 
Derec writes:

The dollar is actually doing quite well. Inflation is also relatively low.

It's race to the bottom. The Euro is doing even worse than the dollar, and the Euro makes up 57% of the dollar index. But Russia, China, India, and Brazil aren't a part of the dollar index. As these countries come to make up more and more of global trade, the dollar index won't be a very good indicator. Right now, China pegs its currency to the dollar to it wouldn't upset things, but China's policies do not suggest that they expect to continue that policy. The Euro is not a reserve currency so its' decline isn't as significant, but I certainly expect it to collapse as well and probably before the dollar loses its reserve status.

The emerging paradigm is that of "gold trade settlement." That is not a gold standard, however, if gold trade settlement turns out not to be viable, it could lead to a gold standard. Already China has currency swap agreements with nearly thirty countries and other countries that do not include China are also reaching such agreements. These agreements allow countries to settle their foreign exchange accounts with something other than dollars and ultimately, with gold.

Do you have any reliable sources on this "emerging paradigm".

Oh lord, it's all over the internet. If you pay any attention to business news you should have heard about it. In general, however, the msm treats it as an insignificant matter - a mere curiosity. But if the nations of the world quit using the dollar for trade settlement that would be very significant.

This would produce profound changes in the world balance of power which would shift to the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). In other words, the most advanced and properous of the emerging markets will be the primary beneficiaries.

BRICS have their own internal problems that dwarf those faced by the US and EU. In addition the three Asian ones (RIC) have mutual conflicts.

I'm not aware of any really troubling conflicts among these nations. The border dispute between India and China is long-standing but basically on hold. Russia has resolved their border disputes with China. China faces the collapse of a severe real estate bubble. We are probably headed toward a global economic collapse which might bring down the dollar all by itself. But the fundamentals of the Russian, Chinese, and Indian economies are much stronger than our or Europe's.

This means that Europe would have to seek better relations with Russia since it won't be able to count on the US. NATO might not formally disappear, but it probably would become defunct. The EU might continue to exist but it is likely to join Russia and the central asian republics in the Eurasian trade zone either as a unit or as individual members.

Why should EU do that? EU has a GDP about 8 times greater than Russia and more than 3 times the population - you are envisioning a true "tail wagging the dog" scenario here.

Perhaps. But Europe would be motivated by better access to Russian resources and Kazackstan is over a million square miles most of whose resources probably haven't been discovered yet. They will also need to replace the American market which will shrink enormously due to the high cost of imports.

The US will be relegated to a Western hemisphere regional power, but even here we will face heavy competiton from Brazil and even from Mexico.

Mexico is right now not even a power within its own border with cartels running the show in many areas. Brazil has the population size, natural resources and economic growth but they have internal problems with development and poverty (see populist reactions to the World Cup). They would be a natural regional power for South America but they have to get their own house in order.

Mexico's economy is growing rather rapidly. The literacy rate is way up which makes people more productive as well. The PRI bureaucracy which stifled enterprise is a thing of the past.

Brazil appears to have gotten its act together under the last three presidents. Yes, there's poverty, but the average Brazilian still has access to things Americans did not have in the second half of the nineteenth century which was our big growth era.

India may also play an increasing role here as she becomes more active in seeking to fill the power vacuum created by the collapse of US power.

A county where half the population has no access to 20th century sanitation is in no position to assume an international role. Solving India's problem with infrastructure and extreme poverty will take much longer than 16 years.

China has the same problems. India's growth rate has been technically lower than China's but nobody believes Chinese government statistics. India has a billion people and nuclear weapons. That puts them among the world's powers.

Israel will cease to exist. The Israel lobby in the US is so powerful that they may save military aid to Israel but that is a trivial matter. The loss of US military and diplomatic muscle in the region will expose her real vulnerability: the inability to sustain a long war.

Israel will not go without deploying nukes which will at the very least trigger a regional nuclear exchange in Asia. None of the world powers, even in your scenario with waning US power, will want that.

They probably won't be defeated in a conventional war. They will fade away as the Ashkenazi Jews leave for America and Europe where they are more culturally comfortable any way and as Israel becomes increasing less safe due to increase support for Hamas and the PLO. They can't defeat Hama as it is because that would involve a protracted war. If the West Bank erupts, and Egypt opens the border to allow Hamas to get more and better weapons, Israel will become less and less safe.

The House of Saud is likely to fall as will the Emirs.
I agree that this is likely. By 2030 oil and gas will lose any geostrategic importance. Large quantities will continue to be consumed but depletion and taxation (carbon emissions will become an increasing international concern) will cause prices (and production costs) to increase while price of alternatives will go down. By 2030 20+% of new cars and light trucks sold worldwide will be fully electric with most of the rest will be some form of hybrid. Photovoltaic and hot water solar will become commonplace and reduce demand for gas. At the same time new technology will unlock more tough reserves "democratizing" access making Middle East increasingly irrelevant energy-wise. We already see Gulf countries like UAE diversifying their economies and that will intensify which will lead to conflicts with traditionalists.

Iraq will probably split into Kurdish, Shitte, and Sunni regions which may be independent or may be federated with a weak central government in Bagdad.
A strong Kurdistan would destabilize Turkey and Iran as well.

The British monarchy will also fall as will the monarchies of the low countries and Spain. So will the Pope. The office of Pope might survive but the power will not. The Catholic Church will devolve into separate national churches similar to the Orthodox churches.

British and other European monarchies are figureheads. Whether they are kept on or if the relevant countries go republican will be interesting but not that Earth-shattering and ultimately just window dressing. You may be right about Catholic Church, but not because of pedophilia. Rather there is a great disconnect between Catholicism of different regions. And while Europe and North America pay most of the bills the doctrine is most in line with so-called "global South" sensibilities.

The British monarchy will fall due to the pedophilia scandal currently pervading Britian (and almost entirely ignored by the US media)

You mean the scandal involving Jimmy Savile and others? What does that have to do with the monarchy?

It's pretty much an open secret that Lord Mountbatten was a pedophile. Mountbatten introduce Jimmy Savile to the royal family, and he remained a close friend of theirs until his death. He was also known to be a procurer of children for other pedophiles. We have no hard evidence that he procured for the royals although there are people making those claims. There is other evidence that also suggests the royal family was connected with pedophile rings, but it needs to be investigated thoroughly an so far that hasn't happened, but its beginning to look like that is changing.

The Papacy, at least in its present form, will fall for the same reason. It is totally engulfed in pedophilia all the way up to the highest levels. But in addition, the Vatican bank, like most Western banks, is insolvent.

I think the schism in the Catholic Church over issues like female ordination, (homo)sexuality and birth control is a real possibility. Francis is trying to play both sides on these issues and I am not sure how it will play out. But the fact is that the pedophilia scandal has largely been played out. I can't see any bishops today protecting any guilty priests like they have done for decades.

It is official policy, established by Pope Benedict, that pedophile priests should be transferred to other parishes and those other parishes should not be told that their new priest is a pedophile. They haven't reformed. They've covered up.

I could elaborate on some of these points, but I will leave that for the discussion. I suspect a few people here might disagree with my prognostications.

No kidding. I hope this is archived until 2030. I always love reading doom-and-gloom prophesies after the supposed doomsday has arrived. :)
For example, I recall a discussion with Gurdur (alas, no longer active!) about 10 years ago where he claimed that in 10 years time peak oil will have caused air travel to become so expensive only very few rich people would be able to afford it.

I remember Gurdur. He was always wrong and I always disagreed with him. That gives me hope that my predictions might be accurate. However, I don't really expect that everything I say here will happen or will happen in the ways that I have predicted. I just expect that quite a few of them will.
 
barbos writes:

Man, that's a lot of stuff happening in just 16 years.

The date is somewhat arbitrary. I thought it was too much to expect in the next ten years, but more likely in the next 50. So I chose 2030 because there's a small chance that I might still be alive at that time.
 
Here is my prediction:
Crimea will still be integral part of Russia.
US will be doing fine and still #1 economy
Oil and gas will be going down as electric cars going up.
China will have some problems due to the global shift from manufacturing to services.
Robots will be doing everything what China does now.
3rd world countries will stay 3rd world.
ME will still be a mess.
EU will do fine
Russia, probably be OK too.

I disagree with no. 3. Number 4 is reversed. Electric cars will be going up because oil and gas will be going up. The others seem reasonable to me.
 
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