boneyard bill
Veteran Member
I may not be around to see it, but my crystal ball tells me what the world will be like sixteen years from now, and it suggests some very big changes. Most prominent of these is the collapse of the dollar. The fundamentals of the US economy are disastrous. The major problems are the two big deficits: the budget deficit and foreign exchange deficit. The problem with the dollar is that it is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government and that full faith and credit isn't very good. Without the dollar as a reserve currency, we are in about the same shape as Greece, and the dollar's reserve status is about to collapse.
The emerging paradigm is that of "gold trade settlement." That is not a gold standard, however, if gold trade settlement turns out not to be viable, it could lead to a gold standard. Already China has currency swap agreements with nearly thirty countries and other countries that do not include China are also reaching such agreements. These agreements allow countries to settle their foreign exchange accounts with something other than dollars and ultimately, with gold.
Meanwhile, the US finances are so bad that we will either have to default on our debts or create massive inflation to pay the debt in cheaper dollars. Either alternative would bring down the dollar if it doesn't fall even before that.
The collapse of the dollar will drastically lower the US standard of living. At the same time, it would make it impossible for the US to maintain its many overseas bases. Indeed, we will probably have to give up all of them eventually.
This would produce profound changes in the world balance of power which would shift to the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). In other words, the most advanced and properous of the emerging markets will be the primary beneficiaries. This means that Europe would have to seek better relations with Russia since it won't be able to count on the US. NATO might not formally disappear, but it probably would become defunct. The EU might continue to exist but it is likely to join Russia and the central asian republics in the Eurasian trade zone either as a unit or as individual members.
In Asia, Japan will rebuild its' Navy and develop nuclear weapons. It will also seek close association with Russia to gain a potential ally against China. North and South Korea will re-unite under pressure from China. And Taiwan will become a part of China, probably through peaceful negotiations.
The US will be relegated to a Western hemisphere regional power, but even here we will face heavy competiton from Brazil and even from Mexico.
In the Middle East, Russia, Iran, and Turkey will dominate. Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates will turn to China to offset that influence. India may also play an increasing role here as she becomes more active in seeking to fill the power vacuum created by the collapse of US power. Israel will cease to exist. The Israel lobby in the US is so powerful that they may save military aid to Israel but that is a trivial matter. The loss of US military and diplomatic muscle in the region will expose her real vulnerability: the inability to sustain a long war.
The House of Saud is likely to fall as will the Emirs. A new "fundamentalist" Islam will take over. That Islam, however, will simply be a cover for Arab nationalism. Meanwhile, the split between Shiite and Sunni will persist, however the Russians and the Chinese may act to keep that conflict on a low level. Iraq will probably split into Kurdish, Shitte, and Sunni regions which may be independent or may be federated with a weak central government in Bagdad.
The British monarchy will also fall as will the monarchies of the low countries and Spain. So will the Pope. The office of Pope might survive but the power will not. The Catholic Church will devolve into separate national churches similar to the Orthodox churches. The British monarchy will fall due to the pedophilia scandal currently pervading Britian (and almost entirely ignored by the US media) and due to the unpopularity of Prince Charles. Holland and Belgium have similar problems (as does the US, btw, but the media is keeping a lid on it).
The Papacy, at least in its present form, will fall for the same reason. It is totally engulfed in pedophilia all the way up to the highest levels. But in addition, the Vatican bank, like most Western banks, is insolvent.
In the US, the collapse of the dollar would reduce the US standard of living to at least second world standards and could lead to a Soviet-style totalitarian dictatorship as the government grabs more power in order to "solve" the economic crisis in a pattern described by F.A Hayek in his Road to Serfdom. However, it could lead to the opposite result if the successors to the current elite opt for a greater reliance on free markets as Germany did after WW II.
I could elaborate on some of these points, but I will leave that for the discussion. I suspect a few people here might disagree with my prognostications.
The emerging paradigm is that of "gold trade settlement." That is not a gold standard, however, if gold trade settlement turns out not to be viable, it could lead to a gold standard. Already China has currency swap agreements with nearly thirty countries and other countries that do not include China are also reaching such agreements. These agreements allow countries to settle their foreign exchange accounts with something other than dollars and ultimately, with gold.
Meanwhile, the US finances are so bad that we will either have to default on our debts or create massive inflation to pay the debt in cheaper dollars. Either alternative would bring down the dollar if it doesn't fall even before that.
The collapse of the dollar will drastically lower the US standard of living. At the same time, it would make it impossible for the US to maintain its many overseas bases. Indeed, we will probably have to give up all of them eventually.
This would produce profound changes in the world balance of power which would shift to the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). In other words, the most advanced and properous of the emerging markets will be the primary beneficiaries. This means that Europe would have to seek better relations with Russia since it won't be able to count on the US. NATO might not formally disappear, but it probably would become defunct. The EU might continue to exist but it is likely to join Russia and the central asian republics in the Eurasian trade zone either as a unit or as individual members.
In Asia, Japan will rebuild its' Navy and develop nuclear weapons. It will also seek close association with Russia to gain a potential ally against China. North and South Korea will re-unite under pressure from China. And Taiwan will become a part of China, probably through peaceful negotiations.
The US will be relegated to a Western hemisphere regional power, but even here we will face heavy competiton from Brazil and even from Mexico.
In the Middle East, Russia, Iran, and Turkey will dominate. Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates will turn to China to offset that influence. India may also play an increasing role here as she becomes more active in seeking to fill the power vacuum created by the collapse of US power. Israel will cease to exist. The Israel lobby in the US is so powerful that they may save military aid to Israel but that is a trivial matter. The loss of US military and diplomatic muscle in the region will expose her real vulnerability: the inability to sustain a long war.
The House of Saud is likely to fall as will the Emirs. A new "fundamentalist" Islam will take over. That Islam, however, will simply be a cover for Arab nationalism. Meanwhile, the split between Shiite and Sunni will persist, however the Russians and the Chinese may act to keep that conflict on a low level. Iraq will probably split into Kurdish, Shitte, and Sunni regions which may be independent or may be federated with a weak central government in Bagdad.
The British monarchy will also fall as will the monarchies of the low countries and Spain. So will the Pope. The office of Pope might survive but the power will not. The Catholic Church will devolve into separate national churches similar to the Orthodox churches. The British monarchy will fall due to the pedophilia scandal currently pervading Britian (and almost entirely ignored by the US media) and due to the unpopularity of Prince Charles. Holland and Belgium have similar problems (as does the US, btw, but the media is keeping a lid on it).
The Papacy, at least in its present form, will fall for the same reason. It is totally engulfed in pedophilia all the way up to the highest levels. But in addition, the Vatican bank, like most Western banks, is insolvent.
In the US, the collapse of the dollar would reduce the US standard of living to at least second world standards and could lead to a Soviet-style totalitarian dictatorship as the government grabs more power in order to "solve" the economic crisis in a pattern described by F.A Hayek in his Road to Serfdom. However, it could lead to the opposite result if the successors to the current elite opt for a greater reliance on free markets as Germany did after WW II.
I could elaborate on some of these points, but I will leave that for the discussion. I suspect a few people here might disagree with my prognostications.
