lpetrich
Contributor
Why Democrats Struggle To Mobilize A ‘Religious Left’ | FiveThirtyEight
The problem: while there are plenty of religious Democratic voters, the Democrats are more divided on religion than the Republicans, and they include more nonreligious voters.
Comparing each party's primaries' voters:
Of Democratic primary voters (very important, somewhat important, not too important, not at all important):
The problem: while there are plenty of religious Democratic voters, the Democrats are more divided on religion than the Republicans, and they include more nonreligious voters.
Religious pro-choice arguments? Why don't we ever see any pro-choice arguments like "God has given us sovereignty over our bodies"?First Cory Booker — who was literally anointed by his pastor ahead of his presidential announcement — was touted as a possible candidate of the “religious left.” Then Pete Buttigieg stepped in to claim that mantle, telling reporters that the left “need to not be afraid to invoke arguments that are convincing on why Christian faith is going to point you in a progressive direction.” Meanwhile, several other presidential hopefuls, including Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand, are all talking openly about their religion on the campaign trail, even making arguments for why their policy positions — whether it’s abortion rights or income inequality — are linked to their faith.
Comparing each party's primaries' voters:
- Democrats: religious affiliation 65%, white Christians 31%, nonwhite Christians 22%, non-Christians 12%
- Republicans: religious affiliation 84%, white Christians 70%
From some other polls, unaffiliated Democrats increased from 14% in 1998 to 28% in 2018. In the 1970's, the Xian fraction was 92%, the other religions were 6%, and the unaffiliated were 6%. But in recent years, the unaffiliated fraction has grown dramatically, at the expense of the Xian fraction. The non-Xian religious fraction has stayed approximately constant.“It’s hard to go up against Biden because he appeals to moderate Catholics and Protestants — he’s from their world,” said Ryan Burge, a political science professor at Eastern Illinois University who studies religion and politics. And according to the 2016 CCES survey, moderate Democratic primary voters are more likely to be religious than their liberal counterparts, so if Biden is also appealing to moderates, that could compound the challenge for his opponents. “If Biden is capturing most of the moderates, there just aren’t that many religious voters left to scoop up,” Burge said.
On the other side, many affiliated people seem to be relatively indifferent to religion.Now to be clear, most of the religiously unaffiliated don’t reject religion outright, so candidates who focus on faith may not run any serious risk of alienating these voters. In fact, according to the 2016 CCES data, only 9 percent of Democratic primary voters said they were atheists, while 8 percent said they were agnostics and 18 percent identified as “nothing in particular.” And notably, voters who fell into this last category were still surprisingly connected to organized religion. About half of these Democrats said they still attend church occasionally, and 37 percent said that religion is at least somewhat important in their lives.
Of Democratic primary voters (very important, somewhat important, not too important, not at all important):
- Black: 62.3% 22.5% 8.0% 7.2%
- Hispanic: 36.9% 30.0% 13.8% 19.3%
- White: 25.3% 24.3% 17.7% 32.6%
- Other: 28.0% 23.7% 20.1% 28.2%
And black Protestants are already quite powerful in the party. As FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote earlier this year, black voters (who are overwhelmingly likely to be Christian) constitute about one-fifth of the Democratic electorate and have a long and deep alliance with the Democratic establishment, making them a key constituency in the primary. According to the CCES, the vast majority of black Protestants and nearly three-quarters of Hispanic Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
... But while mobilizing specific subgroups of religious Democrats will still be important, the dream of building a cohesive religious voting bloc on the left looks more distant by the year. Democrats may not have much to lose by talking about faith and values — but it may not offer them much of a reward among primary voters either.