Democrats trying to unseat each other

[lpetrich]

Primary elections in New York and Kentucky: 5 things to watch today - CNNPolitics
Democratic Primaries for KY-SEN, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17

The progressive insurgents aren't sneaking up on anyone this year.

House Democrats are paying attention and, in some cases, more willing to take a heavy hand in defending their incumbents. After Ohio Rep. Joyce Beatty steamrolled her challenger, Morgan Harper, in late April, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York laid down a marker.

"How many elections does the social media mob have to lose," he tweeted, "before concluding that coalition building beats online vitriol every time?"

...
"Crises can be incumbent protection plans because people want security in a moment where it feels like everything's erupting," Sochie Nnaemeka, the Working Families Party's New York state director, said last week. "But crises can also be a moment of tremendous possibility and potential."

From ballotpedia.org, the NY-15 D primary has 12 candidates, with 3 more that dropped out. None of Ruben Diaz Sr's 11 remaining opponents have dropped out to avoid splitting the vote, like what Andom Ghebreghiorgis did in nearby NY-16 to support Jamaal Bowman.

The other candidates include Councilman Ritchie Torres, Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez, New York State Assembly Member Michael Blake, former New York City Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito and Samelys López, a community organizer.

...
Torres, the first out gay person to hold elected office in the borough, has raised over $1.3 million in the race, far more than anyone else in the field, and is expected to be Diaz's biggest competition in the race.

...
In a district that is two-thirds Latino and nearly 30% Black, with the largest concentration of Puerto Ricans in the state, race has also become a factor. The political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is backing Torres, who is both Black and Puerto Rican, while the Congressional Black Caucus is behind Blake, a vice chair of the Democratic National Committee who also has the support of two local branches of the powerful Service Employees International Union.

The Left is divided. Tomas Ramos is backed by Brand New Congress, founded by some Bernie Sanders campaigners. Samelys Lopez is backed by AOC, Bernie Sanders, the Sunrise Movement, the Matriarch PAC, and some others. Chivona Renee Newsome is unofficially supported by some of the "Yang Gang".

The poll mentioned earlier: (not sure) 34%, Ruben Diaz, Sr. 22%, Ritchie Torres 20%, Melissa Mark-Viverito 6%, Michael A. Blake 6%, Ydanis Rodriguez 6%, Samelys Lopez 2%, Jonathan Ortiz 1%, Julio Pabon 1%, Tomas Ramos 1%, Marlene J. Tapper 0%

 

[lpetrich]

9 things to watch on a huge primary day for Democrats - POLITICO - listing all these districts with contentious primaries, Republican as well as Democratic:
KY-SEN, NC-11, NY-01, NY-09, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-16, NY-17, NY-19, NY-22, NY-24, NY-27, VA-02, VA-05

There’s also an open-seat race in the 17th District, in Westchester and Rockland counties north of the city, to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey. Progressives have rallied around Mondaire Jones, an attorney who jumped into the race before Lowey announced she wouldn’t seek reelection. But the competitive field also includes state Assemblyman David Buchwald, self-funding attorney Adam Schleifer, Obama-era Defense Department official Evelyn Farkas, former NARAL Pro-Choice America chair Allison Fine and state Sen. David Carlucci.

NY Democrats brace for primary night stunners | TheHill
NY-06, NY-09, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17

“New Yorkers have a history of insurgency — these periods we go through of reform and progressive activity, and we might be seeing those conditions now,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran New York campaigns operative. “The sum total is that if turnout is high you could see incumbents losing their seats.”

...
Meng, who is seeking her fifth term representing the 6th District, will face a competitive primary for the first time. Both Sandra Choi, an economic policy expert, and community organizer Melquiades Gagarin are challenging Meng from the left.

...
Nadler cited Ocasio-Cortez’s 2018 victory in an interview with The New York Times last week, saying it “showed that longtime incumbents can be vulnerable”

“Now, anybody who has any ambition — even if no realistic chance of winning an election or no reason to run — suddenly decided to run,” Nadler told the Times.

Nadler faces challenges from progressives Lindsey Boylan, a former aide to Cuomo and Jonathan Herzog, a former staffer on tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang’s presidential campaign.

...
“Nobody cares on the street at all about Rep. Maloney’s chairwomanship or seniority,” Patel said in an interview. “That’s a very Washington game. You walk around and the most common refrain you hear is ‘where’s Maloney been?’ ”

Meanwhile, a Maloney campaign official said they are taking “nothing for granted.”

I read in another news story that Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney are campaigning "aggressively" - that they aren't taking their seats for granted. That's what did in Joe Crowley, and that may do in Eliot Engel.

 

[lpetrich]

Election 2020: Races to watch in Tuesday, June 23 state primaries
KY-SEN, NY-14, NY-16, VA-05, VA-SEN

AOC-inspired progressives target New York House seats - POLITICO
NY-09, NY-16

But others, like Engel and Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.), were slower to ramp up their campaigns.

Clarke is perhaps the most endangered incumbent after Engel. The Brooklyn Democrat faces a rematch with progressive challenger Adem Bunkeddeko, who lost to Clarke by fewer than 2,000 votes in 2018. Bunkeddeko, a housing advocate, has raised close to $440,000 by June. Though he’s picked up few notable endorsements, Clarke has still outraised him by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

"She's taking this race very, very seriously," said Krysten Copeland, campaign spokesperson for Clarke. "Last time around, she looked into some of the criticism, understood it and decided, 'There are some things I can do better.' ... She does not lead with ego at all.”

...
But unlike in 2018, Bunkeddeko won't get a one-on-one shot against Clarke. There are three other candidates on the ballot in the Brooklyn district, including City Council Member Chaim Deutsch, a self-described conservative Democrat who is running an under-the-radar campaign especially targeted toward the district’s Orthodox Jewish community in Crown Heights.

So YC has two challengers on her left, AB and IJ, and one on her right, CD. Seems like vote splitting could both help YC and hurt her. Help her by splitting the left between AB and IJ, and hurt her by vote splitting the right between her and CD.

Ocasio-Cortez, too, has a well-funded primary challenger — as does moderate Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi on Long Island — though neither race is expected to be as competitive.

In NY-03, Tom Suozzi's seat, Melanie D'Arrigo and Michael Weinstock are running. MDA has support from several progressive organizations, like Brand New Congress, Matriarch, and American Progressives in STEM, as well as a relatively moderate one, the National Organization for Women. The latter one likes to back incumbents instead of challengers, which BNC prefers.

In NY-15,

Torres has picked up the backing of the political arms of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the House LGBT Caucus, but he is far from the only credible candidate in the race.

Diaz Sr. "has a real shot," said Sean McElwee, a Data for Progress co-founder. "The poll did wake up a lot of people and ... there started to be pretty big" outside spending after it, he noted.

López rejected the notion of a divided liberal vote, saying she was the true progressive in the race. "I don't think it's the Congressional Progressive Caucus that's going to decide this race. I don't think it's consultants that are going to decide it," she said. "There's a lot of outside money that's coming into this district, telling people here how to vote. And I feel like that is incredibly paternalistic."

Mark-Viverito also said she was pressured to drop out — which would consolidate the field against Díaz Sr. But she refused, saying outside interests were trying to play kingmakers by "acting very imperialistic and colonialistic."

So they are unwilling to do what Andom Ghebreghiorgis did, it seems.

In NY-17,

EMILY’s List is backing Farkas, but progressives have tried to tar her as too moderate, pointing to donations she has garnered from GOP defense officials like former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), who served as President Barack Obama’s defense secretary.

"It's not helpful if we go so far to the left that it's considered 'bad' to have Republican support," she said. "Then we will get nothing done in Congress, and we will only end up further dividing our country."

 

[lpetrich]

The  Josephus problem offers a possible solution to the NY-15 conundrum.

People are standing in a circle waiting to be executed. Counting begins at a specified point in the circle and proceeds around the circle in a specified direction. After a specified number of people are skipped, the next person is executed. The procedure is repeated with the remaining people, starting with the next person, going in the same direction and skipping the same number of people, until only one person remains, and is freed.

The problem — given the number of people, starting point, direction, and number to be skipped — is to choose the position in the initial circle to avoid execution.

Ruben Diaz's 11 challengers - Frangell Basora, Michael Blake, Mark Escoffery-Bey, Samelys Lopez, Melissa Mark-Viverito, Chivona Newsome, Julio Pabon, Tomas Ramos, Ydanis Rodriguez, Marlene Tapper, Ritchie Torres - or by first names - Chivona, Frangell, Julio, Mark, Marlene, Melissa, Michael, Ritchie, Samelys, Tomas, Ydanis - meet in a park or an open field, and they sit in a circle.

They decide on one of their number to withdraw, and that one leaves the circle. Then they count some number around the circle in some direction to find the next one to withdraw. They repeat this step until only one is left. All the others contact the New York Board of Elections to register their withdrawal from the NY-15 race, and they agree to support the survivor.

Table of (how much to advance in the circle in each step), (how advanced in the circle the survivor is) for 11 originals: {{0,10},{1,6},{2,6},{3,8},{4,7},{5,8},{6,4},{7,8},{8,4},{9,6},{10,6}}

 

[lpetrich]

Today's the day in New York. Polls will close 9:00 pm EDT, 6:00 pm PDT.

New York primaries: 15 races to watch during the June 23 election - Vox
NY-01, NY-02, NY-05, NY-09, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-19, NY-22, NY-24, NY-27

NY-05: Gregory Meeks got over 80% of the vote in 2018, so he's likely safe.

NY-09:

Clarke is one of the most progressive members of Congress, so Bunkeddeko, 32, isn’t exactly running to her left but instead is positioning himself as a fresh face who will go to Washington and get things done.

NY-10:

Herzog worked for Andrew Yang’s presidential campaign before quitting to run for Congress and has focused much of his bid on universal basic income. Boylan, a former state economic development official and adviser to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has mounted a pretty serious campaign, raised a lot of money, and generated media buzz. She’s not exactly running to Nadler’s left — as mentioned, she worked for the governor — but rather as a sort of resistance figure who will bring fresh blood to Washington.

AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and the Working Families Party have all endorsed Jerry Nadler. So AH likes UBI and LB is much like JN.

NY-15: Positions and endorsements:

• Samelys Lopez, housing activist: AOC, Bernie Sanders, the Working Families Party, the Democratic Socialists of America, Our Revolution
• Tomas Ramos: Brand New Congress
• Chivona Newsome: the Yang Gang (unofficially)
• Ritchie Torres, NYC Councilmember: Congressional Progressive Caucus, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, the House LGBT Caucus
• Michael Blake, NY State Assembly member: the Congressional Black Caucus, two branches of the Service Employees International Union
• Melissa Mark-Viverito, fmr NYC Speaker: NOW PAC, Latino Victory, teachers' unions
• Ydanis Rodriguez, NYC Councilmember
• Julio Pabon
• Mark Escoffery-Bey
• Frangell Basora
• Marlene Tapper

Very horrible split.

NY-17:

But there are multiple others in the mix, and the limited polling there has been shows the race is a tight one. State Sen. David Carlucci, who was a member of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) that aligned with Republicans in the New York state Senate, is a strong contender, though he’s been criticized for his role in the IDC. Evelyn Farkas, a former Defense Department official, has the backing of Emily’s List. Assembly member David Buchwald, who pushed to change state law to get Trump’s tax returns, was endorsed by the Daily News. Adam Schleifer, a former prosecutor and son of a billionaire, has been able to dump tons of money into his campaign.

 

[lpetrich]

Luis Ferré-Sadurní 1m ago

In Carolyn Maloney’s district, where she’s ahead by less than two percentage points, almost 79,000 absentee ballots were sent to voters. About 11,000 have been returned so far. N.Y. 12th District primary results »

That's NY-12, where 32,286 votes have been counted so far. CM is at 41.7%, SP at 39.8%, LA at 13.5%, PH at 5.0%

If CM wins, then she ought to congratulate LA and PH for saving her hiney by drawing off some of the anti-CM vote. SP is the Indiana Catfish, as I like to call him.

Disappointed that Melanie D'Arrigo (NY-03) is losing, 32.6% to Tom Suozzi's 58.8% with 12,381 votes. A third one, Michael Weinstock, is at 8.6%.


Mckayla Wilkes on Twitter: "So many of my friends I have met this past year are awaiting patiently for results to come in for their primaries. I’m anxiously clocking the results praying for each and every one of you! It takes a bunch of us to try for some of us to get in. Let’s get it y’all!" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Decided NY races so far:

• NY-05 -- 37,328 v, 68% p -- Gregory Meeks* 79.1%, Shaniyat Chowdhury 20.9%
• NY-06 -- 17,887 v, 74% p -- Grace Meng* 61.5%, Melquiades Gagarin 21.4%, Sandra Choi 17.1%
• NY-07 -- 37,527 v, 77% p -- Nydia Velazquez* 79.4%, Paperboy Prince 20.6%
• NY-09 -- 48,141 v, 80% p -- Yvette Clarke* 60.8%, Adem Bunkeddeko 19.1%, Chaim Deutsch 9.8%, Isiah James 9.3%, Lutchi Guyot 1.0%
• NY-10 -- 25,593 v, 85% p -- Jerrold Nadler * 62.4%, Lindsey Boylan 25.0%, Jonathan Herzog 12.6%
• NY-14 -- 28,328 v, 74% p -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez* 72.9, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera 19.7%, Badrun Khan 5.1%, Samuel Sloan 2.4%

Still not yet decided: NY-03 (Tom Suozzi*), NY-09 (Yvette Clarke*), NY-12 (almost even between Carolyn Maloney and Suraj Patel), NY-13 (Adriano Espaillat*), NY-15 (Ritchie Torres), NY-16 (Jamaal Bowman), NY-17 (Mondaire Jones)

 

[lpetrich]

Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer, and Andrew Cuomo had all endorsed Eliot Engel. But look what they got for their efforts -- someone who is clearly going the way of Joe Crowley.

In NY-15, it looks like Ruben Diaz is placing third, behind Ritchie Torres and Michael Blake. Samelys Lopez is a little bit behind them. Looks like they didn't have to do the Josephus puzzle in order to defeat that Trumpie homophobe.

• NY-12 -- 37,782 v, 100% p -- Carolyn Maloney 41.4%, Suraj Patel 40.0%, Lauren Ashcraft 13.6%, Peter Harrison 5.0%
• NY-13 -- 37,316 v, 100% p -- Adriano Espaillat 58.3%, James Keith 23.9%, Ramon Rodriguez 17.8%
• NY-15 -- 38,545 v, 100% p -- Ritchie Torres 30.0%, Michael Blake 19.4%, Ruben Diaz 14.6%, Samelys Lopez 13.3%, Ydanis Rodriguez 11.8%, Melissa Mark-Viverito 3.9%, Tomas Ramos 2.7%, Chivona Newsome 2.6%, Marlene Tapper 0.7%, Julio Pabon 0.4%, Frangell Basora 0.3%, Mark Escoffery-Bey 0.3%
• NY-16 -- 35,897 v, 92% p -- Jamaal Bowman 60.9%, Eliot Engel* 35.6%, Christopher Fink 1.7%, Sammy Ravelo 1.2%, Andom Ghebreghiorgis 0.7%
• NY-17 -- 29,583 v, 96% p -- Mondaire Jones 44.8%, Adam Schleifer 20.9%, David Carlucci 13.3%, Evelyn Farkas 9.2%, David Buchwald 5.5%, Asha Castleberry 2.3%, Catherine Parker 2.2%, Allison Fine 1.7%

Looks like both Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones are winning, and it also looks like a tie between CM and SP.

There are still many absentee ballots to be counted, but they should not affect the numbers very much. The deadline for that is July 1.

 

[funinspace]

Eliot Engel, another dude who's probably been there too long has been given the boot by his own party in NY...not a bad thing as he sounds like an arrogant prick.

 

[lpetrich]

Eliot Engel, another dude who's probably been there too long has been given the boot by his own party in NY...not a bad thing as he sounds like an arrogant prick.

He is the head of the House Foreign Relations Committee, and he may have gotten so caught up in committee business that he neglected his district. Something like Joe Crowley, who became so preoccupied with big-money fundraising and money distribution that he also neglected his district.

EE bragged "I bring home the bacon", but all bacon is pork, in both the original sense and in this metaphorical sense.

The remaining NYC-area district:

• NY-03 -- 16,427 v, 100% p -- Tom Suozzi 58.2%, Melanie D'Arrigo 33.7%, Michael Weinstock 8.1%

Two female blondes defeated so far, MDA and Doyle Canning, meaning no chance for a token female blonde in The Squad. There is a male blond who is still running: Alex Morse of MA-01. I mention that as a joke on Fox News, with its numerous female newscasters with that hair color.

I'll list the candidates by faction:

• NY-03 -- 16,427 v -- Tom Suozzi*, Melanie D'Arrigo (Bern), Michael Weinstock
• NY-05 -- 48,170 v -- Gregory Meeks*, Shaniyat Chowdhury (Bern)
• NY-06 -- 24,760 v -- Grace Meng* (Yang), Melquiades Gagarin (Bern), Sandra Choi
• NY-07 -- 41,243 v -- Nydia Velazquez*, Paperboy Prince (Yang)
• NY-09 -- 59,556 v -- Yvette Clarke*, Adem Bunkeddeko, Chaim Deutsch (cons), Isiah James (Bern), Lutchi Guyot (Yang)
• NY-10 -- 31,220 v -- Jerrold Nadler*, Lindsey Boylan (Bern), Jonathan Herzog (Yang)
• NY-12 -- 39,499 v -- Carolyn Maloney*, Suraj Patel, Lauren Ashcraft (Bern), Peter Harrison
• NY-13 -- 48,632 v -- Adriano Espaillat*, James Felton Keith II (Yang), Ramon Rodriguez
• NY-14 -- 37,825 v -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez* (Bern), Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (cons), Badrun Khan (Yang), Samuel Sloan
• NY-15 -- 40,791 v -- Ritchie Torres, Michael Blake, Ruben Diaz Sr (cons), Samelys Lopez (Bern), Ydanis Rodriguez, Melissa Mark-Viverito, Tomas Ramos (Bern), Chivona Renee Newsome (Yang), Marlene Tapper, Julio Pabon, Frangell Basora, Mark Escoffery-Bey
• NY-16 -- 44,005 v -- Jamaal Bowman (Bern), Eliot Engel*, Christopher Fink, Sammy Ravelo (Yang), Andom Ghebreghiorgis
• NY-17 -- 30,402 v -- Mondaire Jones (Bern), Adam Schleifer, David Carlucci (cons), Evelyn Farkas, David Buchwald, Asha Castleberry, Catherine Parker, Allison Fine

The factions:

• Bern = Bernie Sanders faction - proteges like AOC, orgs like Brand New Congress
• Yang = Andrew Yang faction - "Forward Humanity" "Yang Gang" - Universal Basic Income
• cons = conservatives

The conservatives:

• Chaim Deutsch: Orthodox Jewish
• Michelle Caruso-Cabrera: Wall Street Republican
• Ruben Diaz Sr: Pentecostal pastor who likes Trump and dislikes gays
• David Carlucci: caucused with Republicans in the NY State Senate

ETA: updated to reflect Forward Humanity's endorsement of Grace Meng.

 

[Derec]

Eliot Engel, another dude who's probably been there too long has been given the boot by his own party in NY...not a bad thing as he sounds like an arrogant prick.

i think this is a bad development for the country. He was booted because he was too moderate, too white and, in a party embracing the likes of Linda Sarsour, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, way ....


This purge of moderates is reminding me of the Tea Party from a dozen years ago or so. Moderate Republicans were purged in favor of doctrinaire radicals. Same as is happening with Democrats now. Maybe we should call it the Herbal Tea Party.
In any case, Tea Party les us to Donald Trump running for president and ultimately winning. I wonder if the same will happen with Democrats. And if so, who will be their version of Trump?

 

[lpetrich]

(Eliot Engel being unseated...)

i think this is a bad development for the country. He was booted because he was too moderate, too white and, in a party embracing the likes of Linda Sarsour, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, way ....

This reminds me of the Native American Party of the mid 19th cy., later the American Party, a party whose members believed that Catholic immigrants were part of a plot to bring the US under the rule of the Vatican. This party was very secretive, with its members responding to questions about it with "I don't know". So they became known as the "Know-Nothings".

Replace "Catholic" with "Muslim" and "Vatican" with "latter-day caliphate" and it looks very familiar.

This purge of moderates is reminding me of the Tea Party from a dozen years ago or so. Moderate Republicans were purged in favor of doctrinaire radicals. Same as is happening with Democrats now. Maybe we should call it the Herbal Tea Party.

I've seen "Herbal Tea Party" also, and also "Green Tea Party".

In any case, Tea Party les us to Donald Trump running for president and ultimately winning. I wonder if the same will happen with Democrats. And if so, who will be their version of Trump?

 

[Derec]

Replace "Catholic" with "Muslim" and "Vatican" with "latter-day caliphate" and it looks very familiar.

It's not so much that these women are Muslim but that they are hostile toward Israel and supportive of the antisemitic BDS movement. '

I've seen "Herbal Tea Party" also, and also "Green Tea Party".

Good one!

 

[lpetrich]

It's not so much that these women are Muslim but that they are hostile toward Israel and supportive of the antisemitic BDS movement.

Thinking that Israel is nasty to Palestinians != thinking that Jews are great villains
Israel != Jews

Andrew Yang on Twitter: "@HumanityForward @donnaimamTX Excited to support Donna in her race in Austin! " / Twitter
then
Donna Imam on Twitter: "Excited to have the endorsement of Andrew Yang and Humanity Forward! We need your help — early voting starts June 29!
@AndrewYang @HumanityForward https://t.co/pY9mybqf5o" / Twitter

• CA-34 - David Kim: official (Jimmy Gomez: Inc)
• FL-23 - Jen Perelman: official, Prog (Debbie Wasserman Schultz: Inc)
• HI-02 - Noelle Famera
• IA-04 - J.D. Scholten: official, Prog
• KY-SEN - Mike Broihier: official (Charles Booker: Prog)
• LA-SEN - Antoine Pierce: official
• MA-01 - Alex Morse: official, Prog (Richard Neal: Inc)
• MA-08 - Robbie Goldstein: official (Stephen Lynch: Inc)
• NJ-06 - Russ Cirincione: official (Frank Pallone: Inc)
• NY-06 - Grace Meng: Inc, official (Mel Gagarin: Prog)
• NY-07 - Paperboy Prince (Nydia Velazquez: Inc)
• NY-09 - Lutchi Guyot (Yvette Clarke: Inc, Isiah James: Prog)
• NY-10 - Jonathan Herzog (Jerrold Nadler: Inc, Lindsey Boylan: Prog)
• NY-13 - James Felton Keith II: withdrawn (Adriano Espaillat: Inc)
• NY-14 - Badrun Khan (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez : Inc, Prog)
• NY-15 - Chivona Renee Newsome (Tomas Ramos: Prog, Samelys Lopez: Prog)
• NY-16 - Sammy Ravelo (Eliot Engel: Inc, Jamaal Bowman: Prog)
• NY-27 - Nate McMurray: official
• OH-13 - Tim Ryan: official, Inc
• OR-01 - Heidi Briones: defeated (Suzanne Bonamici: Inc)
• TN-01 - Blair Walsingham: official
• TX-31 - Donna Imam: official (John Carter: Inc)
• WA-10 - Marilyn Strickland: official (Joshua Collins: Prog)

 

[lpetrich]

I'll simplify my NYC list by faction:

• NY-03 -- Bern
• NY-05 -- Bern
• NY-06 -- Yang*#, Bern
• NY-07 -- Yang
• NY-09 -- cons, Bern, Yang
• NY-10 -- Bern, Yang
• NY-12 -- Bern
• NY-13 -- Yang
• NY-14 -- Bern*#, cons, Yang
• NY-15 -- cons, Bern, Bern, Yang
• NY-16 -- Bern#, Yang
• NY-17 -- Bern#, cons

* = incumbent, # = elected in this election, including re-elected incumbents

Bernites and conservatives beat Yangites 5 to 1, with only one Yangite, Grace Meng NY-06, beating a Bernite. Bernites and conservatives are tied at 2-2, and conservatives beat Yangites everywhere.

 

[lpetrich]

Crowded field of challengers hopes to take on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar - CNNPolitics

"The fame and notoriety of these members can be a double-edged sword -- it helps their fundraising, but also draws attention and competition," said Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Kondik noted, however, that "incumbents hardly ever lose House primaries," and the congresswomen don't appear to have the kind of "obvious liabilities" seen in rare instances where a sitting House member ends up losing a primary such as in the recent case of Republican Rep. Steve King, who lost a primary after losing the support of House Republican leadership over racist comments.

Rashida Tlaib is up against Brenda Jones, someone who wants her old seat back.

"People can say whatever they want, but I'm telling my supporters, donors, nationally and everywhere, you can support the work I'm doing by supporting front-line organizations that are providing for many of my neighbors that need the help the most right now," Tlaib said.

Denzel McCampbell, a spokesperson for the campaign, told CNN in a statement that "During Rep. Tlaib's first term, she has remained laser focused on delivering exceptional constituent services, while advocating for bold, transformative legislation that will provide equity, justice, and opportunity to everyone in her district."

"During the pandemic, Rep. Tlaib has helped residents obtain PPE and access needed unemployment benefits, and has raised tens of thousands of dollars for local service organizations," McCampbell said, adding that "Rep. Tlaib is rooted in the community and has not stopped working for residents."

Ilhan Omar also has a Democratic challenger.

In Minnesota, Antone Melton-Meaux, an attorney who runs a mediation practice, is one of the candidates running in a Democratic primary against Omar. In an interview, he said of the congresswoman, "A lot of her views are radical and I think they're out of line and out of touch with this district."

Melton-Meaux, a first-time candidate for elected office who has raised more than $480,000, said that campaigning during a pandemic, where traditional get out the vote efforts are not possible, has been a challenge, but that his campaign has "engaged with residents on issues that matter most to them, like their health and personal safety in the wake of George Floyd's murder."

IO has raised $3.3 million so far, and I wouldn't be surprised if she is asking her good friend AOC for campaigning tips.

 

[lpetrich]

AOC and other liberals, minorities gain in U.S. congressional primary races - Reuters - shows a picture of AOC wearing a mask with "Vote NYC" stickers printed onto it.

Jamaal Bowman is declaring victory.

“I’m a Black man raised by a single mother in a housing project. That story doesn’t usually end in Congress,” Bowman tweeted on Wednesday as he declared victory. “But today, that 11-year-old boy beaten by police is about to be your Representative. I can’t wait to get to DC and cause problems for those maintaining the status quo.”

Eliot Engel isn't conceding defeat just yet. He's waiting until all the absentee ballots are counted, and that may take until at least next week.

“Any declarative statement on the outcome of this race right now is premature and undermines the democratic process,” his campaign said in a statement.

Why Tuesday should make Chuck Schumer, the Senate's top Democrat, very nervous - CNNPolitics - "Which is why the New York senator has to look at the (still pending) results of Tuesday's Democratic primaries in the Empire State with real trepidation as he looks ahead to his 2022 reelection race."

Then describing how AOC is building an online political machine.

Now, Schumer isn't Engel or Maloney. He won't be caught by surprise. He likely won't be outspent. And he will not go down without a massive fight -- if it comes to that.

But he is also the leader of Senate Democrats. And that could mean brokering compromises that the left doesn't love between now and the summer of 2022. Meanwhile, Ocasio-Cortez just keeps getting stronger and more potent as a political force.

Watch this space.

I think that AOC wants to get more like-minded politicians into office. She's a do-gooder at heart, and she doesn't seem that interested in career-ladder climbing.

 

[lpetrich]

Luis Ferré-Sadurní on Twitter: "NEW: @BOENYC has distributed 765,030 ballots for the presidential Democratic primary in New York City.
The board says 92,822 ballots have been mailed back to BOE, as of Tuesday.
Numbers are unofficial/subject to change, per BOE. Data here: (links)" / Twitter
noting
Absentee Ballot Totals | NYC Board of Elections

Absentee ballots must be postmarked by June 23, 2020 and received by the Board of Elections no later than June 30, 2020 to be counted, as per New York State Election Law Section 8-412(1).

Absentee Ballot Recap Reports are listed below by Borough and Political Party. They represent Absentee ballots distributed and received, as of the date of the report. Numbers are unofficial and subject to change.

Absentee Ballot Recap Reports will be updated and posted at the close of business on:

Friday, June 26, 2020
Monday, June 29, 2020
Thursday, July 2, 2020

I've been itchy and impatient, so I will collect the number of absentee ballots for each NYC district that Democrats have been contesting.

 

[lpetrich]

Found out some fun stuff about Suraj Patel.

Issue #41 - Primaries for Progress about NY-12:

A source reached out to us with some information regarding a poll being run by Suraj Patel in NY-12. They said that most of the questions were repeated lines from the 2018 primary; however, Patel appears to be mixing in something new: Congressmember Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Patel’s poll included questions about AOC, and then asked how likely respondents would be to support an “AOC Democrat” in the race. This is an interesting tactic from Patel, suggesting he’s planning on leaning in on his progressive platform. But it could also set up an awkward situation for him if he chooses to run as an “AOC Democrat” while the organizations that supported her in her 2018 run are either looking elsewhere in the race or not endorsing at all, as is AOC.

Brand New Congress, for instance, supports Lauren Ashcraft.

CAMPAIGN 2020: In a twist, greens worry this establishment Dem could lose -- Thursday, June 25, 2020 -- www.eenews.net

Climate activists had boosted challengers to other longtime incumbents, like educator Jamaal Bowman's primary against House Foreign Affairs Chairman Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.).

But New York's 12th District was different.

Patel had challenged Maloney in 2018 as a progressive in the style of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). He captured about 41% of the vote. But since then, Maloney has solidified her standing among environmentalists of all stripes, while Patel alienated them.

Then that poll on whether to run as an AOC Democrat.

That seeming triangulation — along with past disputes with organized labor and his out-of-state fundraising with the hospitality industry — raised questions about Patel's commitment to progressive policies, said Matthew Miles Goodrich, the Sunrise Movement's deputy fundraising director.

"I think what turned a lot of people off to Suraj was his sort of chameleonic persona," he said. "I think that ideological flexibility is not something young people are encouraged by."

Then SP's "Tinder-banking" -- campaign catfishing, where he and his campaigners created fake profiles and requested votes from anyone who responded. Activists preferred Lauren Ashcraft and Peter Harrison, but as SP emerged as a threat, they decided to have a limited sort of endorsement for Rep. Maloney.

"Beyond an honesty problem, he lacks clear convictions," according to a NYC Sunriser in a Twitter thread. Keep in mind that SP is supposed to be a professor of business ethics.

 

[lpetrich]

AOC predecessor Joe Crowley suggests ‘complacency’ to blame for N.Y. primary upsets - New York Daily News

He has said very little since his defeat by AOC, but he has some things to say about the successes of Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres.

“In this election — and I give credit to the insurgency in this case — they created an energy that’s needed in the very same way that Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez did in the election against me. That is very important,” Crowley said, ...

About Eliot Engel and Carolyn Maloney,

“They’ve been in there for quite some time, so there’s a bit of complacency, both by the individual and the electorate,” Crowley said. “I think it’s harder when you’ve been in office for that long. That’s how it always is.”

...
“I think there’s a great deal more frustration out there because of Trump, because of economic upheaval, because of the pandemic, because of Black Lives Matter, where a lot of people are wondering why nothing has happened,” Crowley said.

The districts' demographics have shifted quite a lot over the years that the longer-serving incumbents have been in power.

“The diversity of New York is being represented in the delegation,” Crowley said.

Still, Crowley said he mourns the “loss of seniority” that comes the likely defeat of Engel.

“Legislating is about relationship-building. That doesn’t happen overnight. There’s a bit of that setback that’s taking place,” he said. “The potential loss of Eliot Engel is a great deal of loss for the delegation. I think it’s going to take some time for the electorate to understand and appreciate the loss of that experience and seniority.”

But what has that seniority done for NYC? In "Knock Down The House", AOC asks what JC's high status has done for NY-14. Not much, it seems.