Are US cities about to enter a long period of decline?

[Derec]

The race riots of the 1960s were extremely damaging for US cities, as did the surging crime in the decades that followed. People and capital fled to the suburbs.

Over the last three decades, that trend reversed, with more people moving into the cities proper and investment followed - i.e. gentrification, something #BLM hates.
But this trend is subject to lower crime rates and residents of cities feeling safe. When you have increasing race riots every time a black criminal gets popped by police, when city officials side with criminals and throw police officers under the bus (like Keisha Lance Bottoms did in Atlanta), when extremists can take over parts of cities like Seattle and Atlanta and the city officials twiddle their thumbs for days, when city councils vote to abolish their police departments (Minneapolis) or defund them, often to the tune of over a billion dollars (NYC, LA), when homeless are allowed to defecate in the streets (San Francisco) then the residents who can afford to get out of dodge will do just that.

Will the cities be able to avoid the mistakes of the 60s and 70s? Or will they double down on stupid?

Note, that cities now also face the threat of the COVID19. Cities, especially dense ones like NYC, are hard hit because of population density. And if companies decide to expand working form home long term, that could spell trouble for urban cores long term, in addition to the rioting and the stupidity of city officials.

P.S.: I think the Bernie Goetz incident exemplifies the pre-Giuliani NYC well. A regular guy, gets mugged, police do almost nothing. He gets an illegal gun. Several lowlifes tried to mug him again on the subway, he shoots them all. Gets acquitted of everything but the gun charge, but a civil jury hands down a ridiculously insane judgment because of the muggers got seriously injured (play stupid games win stupid prizes, people should not get to sue their victims when the victims defend themselves!)

 

[repoman]

Warriors...

Come out to play!

 

[thebeave]

The race riots of the 1960s were extremely damaging for US cities, as did the surging crime in the decades that followed. People and capital fled to the suburbs.

Over the last three decades, that trend reversed, with more people moving into the cities proper and investment followed - i.e. gentrification, something #BLM hates.
But this trend is subject to lower crime rates and residents of cities feeling safe. When you have increasing race riots every time a black criminal gets popped by police, when city officials side with criminals and throw police officers under the bus (like Keisha Lance Bottoms did in Atlanta), when extremists can take over parts of cities like Seattle and Atlanta and the city officials twiddle their thumbs for days, when city councils vote to abolish their police departments (Minneapolis) or defund them, often to the tune of over a billion dollars (NYC, LA), when homeless are allowed to defecate in the streets (San Francisco) then the residents who can afford to get out of dodge will do just that.

Will the cities be able to avoid the mistakes of the 60s and 70s? Or will they double down on stupid?

Note, that cities now also face the threat of the COVID19. Cities, especially dense ones like NYC, are hard hit because of population density. And if companies decide to expand working form home long term, that could spell trouble for urban cores long term, in addition to the rioting and the stupidity of city officials.

P.S.: I think the Bernie Goetz incident exemplifies the pre-Giuliani NYC well. A regular guy, gets mugged, police do almost nothing. He gets an illegal gun. Several lowlifes tried to mug him again on the subway, he shoots them all. Gets acquitted of everything but the gun charge, but a civil jury hands down a ridiculously insane judgment because of the muggers got seriously injured (play stupid games win stupid prizes, people should not get to sue their victims when the victims defend themselves!)

Apparently, the progressives in the big cities eventually get fed up with the destruction and chaos their policies created and move to a more pristine peaceful city, yet bring their same ideals and philosophy with them to repeat the process all over again. I guess they think eventually they'll get it right and they will create the progressive utopia they've always dreamed about. Insane!

 

[Harry Bosch]

The race riots of the 1960s were extremely damaging for US cities, as did the surging crime in the decades that followed. People and capital fled to the suburbs.

Over the last three decades, that trend reversed, with more people moving into the cities proper and investment followed - i.e. gentrification, something #BLM hates.
But this trend is subject to lower crime rates and residents of cities feeling safe. When you have increasing race riots every time a black criminal gets popped by police, when city officials side with criminals and throw police officers under the bus (like Keisha Lance Bottoms did in Atlanta), when extremists can take over parts of cities like Seattle and Atlanta and the city officials twiddle their thumbs for days, when city councils vote to abolish their police departments (Minneapolis) or defund them, often to the tune of over a billion dollars (NYC, LA), when homeless are allowed to defecate in the streets (San Francisco) then the residents who can afford to get out of dodge will do just that.

Will the cities be able to avoid the mistakes of the 60s and 70s? Or will they double down on stupid?

Note, that cities now also face the threat of the COVID19. Cities, especially dense ones like NYC, are hard hit because of population density. And if companies decide to expand working form home long term, that could spell trouble for urban cores long term, in addition to the rioting and the stupidity of city officials.

P.S.: I think the Bernie Goetz incident exemplifies the pre-Giuliani NYC well. A regular guy, gets mugged, police do almost nothing. He gets an illegal gun. Several lowlifes tried to mug him again on the subway, he shoots them all. Gets acquitted of everything but the gun charge, but a civil jury hands down a ridiculously insane judgment because of the muggers got seriously injured (play stupid games win stupid prizes, people should not get to sue their victims when the victims defend themselves!)

Apparently, the progressives in the big cities eventually get fed up with the destruction and chaos their policies created and move to a more pristine peaceful city, yet bring their same ideals and philosophy with them to repeat the process all over again. I guess they think eventually they'll get it right and they will create the progressive utopia they've always dreamed about. Insane!

Yes. I can't wait for the marxist/socialist utopia! I'm sure that it's just around the corner.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So crime increased in the Cities in the 60s and 70s. So why did it increase in the rural areas as well in that same period, and why did the rural areas see a decline in crime as well, at the same time urban crime dropped?

 

[zorq]

When you have increasing race riots every time a black criminal gets popped by police, ...

It really sounds like the root problem in Derec's silly prognostication is guns.

Stop selling guns. Confiscate the guns that are out there. When criminals stop having easy access to guns, cops can start relying on less lethal self defence. As a result, fewer suspects get senselessly slaughtered. With fewer senselessly slaughtered perps, we have fewer race riots. Gentrification continues and Derec doesn't get inconvenienced by protesters on the freeway.

Sounds like a plan to me. You on board Derec?

 

[James Brown]

So crime increased in the Cities in the 60s and 70s. So why did it increase in the rural areas as well in that same period, and why did the rural areas see a decline in crime as well, at the same time urban crime dropped?

 Lead-crime hypothesis

Proponents of the lead–crime hypothesis argue that the removal of lead additives from motor fuel, and the consequent decline in children's lead exposure, explains the fall in crime rates in the United States beginning in the 1990s.^[17] This hypothesis also offers an explanation of the earlier rise in crime in the preceding decades as the result of increased lead exposure throughout the mid-20th century.^[18]

When we stopped poisoning kids' developing brains in the 60s and 70s, they stopped growing up to be violent adults in the 80s and 90s.

An Updated Lead-Crime Roundup for 2018

In a nutshell, this article argues that atmospheric lead from gasoline tailpipes rose steadily after World War II, affecting babies born in the late 40s and beyond. The leading edge of this generation became teenagers in the late 60s and was more prone than previous generations to committing violent crime. Every year the population of teenagers with lead poisoning increased, and violent crime increased with it. This is why the 70s and 80s were eras in which crime skyrocketed.

In the early 70s the United States began to phase out leaded gasoline and newborns became steadily less lead poisoned. Like clockwork, as the leading edge of this generation became teenagers in the early 90s, the crime wave started to recede. By 2010, an entire generation of teenagers and young adults—the age group responsible for most crime—had grown up nearly lead free, and the violent crime rate had plummeted to half or less of its high point. This happened across the board: in big and small cities; among blacks and whites; in every state; in every city; and, as it turns out, in every other country that also phased out leaded gasoline.

It’s important to emphasize that the lead-crime hypothesis doesn’t claim that lead is solely responsible for crime. It primarily explains only one thing: the huge rise in crime of the 70s and 80s and the equally huge—and completely unexpected—decline in crime of the 90s and aughts.

 

[Politesse]

A lot of American cities have been in a long period of decline, if not for the reasons you mention. But I see no signs that the healthy cities are about to go under. People are as eager to move into the great urban centers of the West as they ever were. And some of the cities that had been given up for lost, like Detroit, have been showing some signs of revival lately. The COVID crisis and recession are a hurdle, but I don't buy your argument that it will drive people away from cities. I can testify that it is a lot easier to live comfortably in quarantine in town than out in the country, if you are trying to avoid infection at least. Sure, people are technically closer together, but if you have money you don't really need to go outside at all, there's Doordash and Amazon for that.

And right now the virus is raging in rural areas. In my state, Imperial county (mostly exurbs, farmers and desert rats) is the biggest crisis zone right now, and neighboring Arizona is on fire altogether, especially out on the Dinetah which is one of the most rural areas in the country. You gonna tell me that after watching their parents and grandparents slowly die of respiratory disease out in the sticks, young Navajos aren't going to be thinking of the comparative benefits escaping to Flagstaff and Phoenix where there are at least modern hospitals to go to in an emergency?

 

[Derec]

So crime increased in the Cities in the 60s and 70s. So why did it increase in the rural areas as well in that same period, and why did the rural areas see a decline in crime as well, at the same time urban crime dropped?

Note that the crime rate in the big cities was far higher.

 

[Derec]

A lot of cities have been in a long period of decline, if not for the reasons you mention. But I see no signs that the healthy cities are about to go under. People are as eager to move into the great urban centers of the West as they ever were.

I have seen my own city, Atlanta, improve many neighborhoods since the Olympics (1996). Many young professionals moved into the city proper. There certainly was no decline - quite the opposite.

And Atlanta was spared the rioting in the 2014-2016 First #BLM wave of violent riots it really looked like the city was living up to its motto as the "city too busy to hate". But now, KLB has taken the side of the rioters and against her own police, and racist armed thugs had taken over the area around that burnt our Wendy's. I doubt the upward trajectory for Atlanta will continue under KLB's leadership.

 

[Derec]

When we stopped poisoning kids' developing brains in the 60s and 70s, they stopped growing up to be violent adults in the 80s and 90s.

That most likely plays some role, but it does not explain the increase in violent crime we are seeing now. Are people responsible for the more than 100 shootings over a single weekend or those responsible for an increase in shootings and homicides in NYC recreationally huffing lead?

 

[Derec]

Sounds like a plan to me. You on board Derec?

I would be on board with stricter gun laws, albeit not total confiscation that you want, but there is the problem with the 2nd Amendment.

I am also not confident that this will eliminate riots by black supremacist police haters. It would only take a black perp with a knife attacking police and getting shot dead and it'll be "justice for X, he didn't do nothing" all over again.

 

[Politesse]

A lot of cities have been in a long period of decline, if not for the reasons you mention. But I see no signs that the healthy cities are about to go under. People are as eager to move into the great urban centers of the West as they ever were.

I have seen my own city, Atlanta, improve many neighborhoods since the Olympics (1996). Many young professionals moved into the city proper. There certainly was no decline - quite the opposite.

And Atlanta was spared the rioting in the 2014-2016 First #BLM wave of violent riots it really looked like the city was living up to its motto as the "city too busy to hate". But now, KLB has taken the side of the rioters and against her own police, and racist armed thugs had taken over the area around that burnt our Wendy's. I doubt the upward trajectory for Atlanta will continue under KLB's leadership.
View attachment 28442

So what you're really saying is that you are afraid of Black people.

 

[Derec]

So what you're really saying is that you are afraid of Black people.

No, I am afraid of racist^* black people armed with semi-automatic rifles taking over a neighborhood. And that's a very rational fear.

^* They prevented white, and only white, people from driving through University Ave.

 

[steve_bank]

Decline started in the 70s. The 'white flight' to suburbs. Loss of middle class jobs and wages.

 

[Derec]

Decline started in the 70s. The 'white flight' to suburbs. Loss of middle class jobs and wages.

And why did they flee? I would say, race riots and crime were a big part of it.
Race riots are already back, and with police being defunded to the tune of billions, crime will surely follow.

 

[Politesse]

So what you're really saying is that you are afraid of Black people.

No, I am afraid of racist^* black people armed with semi-automatic rifles taking over a neighborhood. And that's a very rational fear.

^* They prevented white, and only white, people from driving through University Ave.

So you're sad they didn't let you go to the Wendy's for a couple of days, or what? It's nonsense in any case, there are plenty of "white people" on University Avenue. What you mean is that a white couple claimed they'd been assaulted there last week, so the police muscled in and deconstructed the blockaded property, which the protestors themselves had peacefully and voluntarily vacated in the meantime. Even Wendy's isn't pissed about the incident (they published a message of solidarity and promised to keep paying the displaced employees) but you are. You've got way less reason to be afraid of Black folks than they have to be of you. The police don't come when they call.

And you're mad that the protestors had long guns, even though they were literally getting shot at by passersby.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

 Lead-crime hypothesis



When we stopped poisoning kids' developing brains in the 60s and 70s, they stopped growing up to be violent adults in the 80s and 90s.

An Updated Lead-Crime Roundup for 2018

In a nutshell, this article argues that atmospheric lead from gasoline tailpipes rose steadily after World War II, affecting babies born in the late 40s and beyond. The leading edge of this generation became teenagers in the late 60s and was more prone than previous generations to committing violent crime. Every year the population of teenagers with lead poisoning increased, and violent crime increased with it. This is why the 70s and 80s were eras in which crime skyrocketed.

In the early 70s the United States began to phase out leaded gasoline and newborns became steadily less lead poisoned. Like clockwork, as the leading edge of this generation became teenagers in the early 90s, the crime wave started to recede. By 2010, an entire generation of teenagers and young adults—the age group responsible for most crime—had grown up nearly lead free, and the violent crime rate had plummeted to half or less of its high point. This happened across the board: in big and small cities; among blacks and whites; in every state; in every city; and, as it turns out, in every other country that also phased out leaded gasoline.

It’s important to emphasize that the lead-crime hypothesis doesn’t claim that lead is solely responsible for crime. It primarily explains only one thing: the huge rise in crime of the 70s and 80s and the equally huge—and completely unexpected—decline in crime of the 90s and aughts.

I've read about that, but didn't think I could justify including it as a reason. It would definitely be interesting to know we were suffering the same problems as Ancient Rome did... again with lead!

 

[James Brown]

When we stopped poisoning kids' developing brains in the 60s and 70s, they stopped growing up to be violent adults in the 80s and 90s.

That most likely plays some role, but it does not explain the increase in violent crime we are seeing now. Are people responsible for the more than 100 shootings over a single weekend or those responsible for an increase in shootings and homicides in NYC recreationally huffing lead?

Anything involving demographics is going to be saw-toothed and uneven.

5 Facts About Crime in the U.S.

Using the FBI numbers, the violent crime rate fell 51% between 1993 and 2018. Using the BJS data, the rate fell 71% during that span. The long-term decline in violent crime hasn’t been uninterrupted, though. The FBI, for instance, reported increases in the violent crime rate between 2004 and 2006 and again between 2014 and 2016.[/COLOR]

View attachment 28445

I expect that in 2006 some people were concerned that violent crime was back on the rise and would not continue to fall, but it did.

 

[steve_bank]

Decline started in the 70s. The 'white flight' to suburbs. Loss of middle class jobs and wages.

And why did they flee? I would say, race riots and crime were a big part of it.
Race riots are already back, and with police being defunded to the tune of billions, crime will surely follow.

I had a job in the early 70s bussing black kids form North Hartford Ct out to white schools in nthe burbs.

You open a wider debate going on right now in the media.

There is no question Jim Crow discrimination stifled the growth of a healthy black middle class. The Oklahoma massacre. They have been economically inhibited since the end of the Civil War. Backs being left behind in cities was the result of a long history.

I saw racism in the south during the VN War. I doubt most whites realize how deep it goes and how angry blacks were and are. Riots too were the result of institutionalized racism. With the current media debates it appears whites are starting to get it.

With a lot of good paying manufacturing jibs in cities blacks had jobs under a general separate but equal framework. When the jobs went away blacks were left behind.