Israel - King of Swamp Castle of Democracy

[Jimmy Higgins]

To remind people...

When I started here, all there was was swamp. Other kings said I was daft to build a castle on a swamp, but I built it all the same, just to show 'em. It sank into the swamp. So, I built a second one. That sank into the swamp. So, I built a third one. That burned down, fell over, then sank into the swamp, but the fourth one... stayed up!

Israel, much like the King of Swamp Castle, has been repeating the same process over and over again and hoping that the fourth time is the charm.

Israel has had three parliamentary elections in the past couple of years, this'll be the fourth. How come? Do they just like voting this much?

No, the problem is the vote ends up fractured between two primary parties, with a handful of other seats gobbled by others... and then the top two can't find enough to form the basis of a shared majority government. Three times this has happened. Will Likud or Yair Lapid make it work this fourth time? Likud generally under performs Yair Lapid, but there needs to be 61 seats for a majority. And Yair Lapid generally doesn't get that many. Meanwhile Likud gets fewer seats, but generally has an easier time consolidating with other conservative parties. Of course, the Likud leader, Netanyahu, has become less and less popular, starring down potential charges against him for the last 50 or so centuries.

So, we'll see whether the Swamp Castle holds or Israel will need to go for it a fifth time.

 

[steve_bank]

I have looked at Israeli English language media. I'd say there is a wide diversity in opinion. Over here we only hear the conservatives side, aka Netanyahu. Lively debate.

There is strong opposition to the conservatives along with settlements and like over here are attacked as subservice and so on. I watched an interview over here of a woman who wrote a book about Netanyahu pre Trump essentially painting him as a liar and propagandist like Trump.

Coalition govt versus our two party system. How many governments has Italy had post war?

 

[Jayjay]

I have looked at Israeli English language media. I'd say there is a wide diversity in opinion. Over here we only hear the conservatives side, aka Netanyahu. Lively debate.

There is strong opposition to the conservatives along with settlements and like over here are attacked as subservice and so on. I watched an interview over here of a woman who wrote a book about Netanyahu pre Trump essentially painting him as a liar and propagandist like Trump.

Coalition govt versus our two party system. How many governments has Italy had post war?

One thing Italy and Israel have in common is that they have closed party lists. That is, voters have no say in who gets elected in the parliament, only how many seats a party gets. The people in the list and their priorities are decided by party bosses (though in Italy there are some seats that are allocated via single-member first-past-the-post districts).

Compare and contrast with Nordic countries that have open lists: not only can the voter impact which parties to support, they also have a say in who in that party get priority.

 

[steve_bank]

I have looked at Israeli English language media. I'd say there is a wide diversity in opinion. Over here we only hear the conservatives side, aka Netanyahu. Lively debate.

There is strong opposition to the conservatives along with settlements and like over here are attacked as subservice and so on. I watched an interview over here of a woman who wrote a book about Netanyahu pre Trump essentially painting him as a liar and propagandist like Trump.

Coalition govt versus our two party system. How many governments has Italy had post war?

One thing Italy and Israel have in common is that they have closed party lists. That is, voters have no say in who gets elected in the parliament, only how many seats a party gets. The people in the list and their priorities are decided by party bosses (though in Italy there are some seats that are allocated via single-member first-past-the-post districts).

Compare and contrast with Nordic countries that have open lists: not only can the voter impact which parties to support, they also have a say in who in that party get priority.

I am not as knowledgeable in other systems as I should be. I think the obvious problem we have is the range of diversity, even without race, that makes compromise difficult. Tiny Israel which is somewhat homogeneous race and ethnicity wise struggles.

It has long been California vs North East intellectuals. Texas wanting to succeed, at some did.

People don't sem to realize liberal democracy and self rule on a large scale is an experiment which may fail.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yup, this is the inherent flaw of party-controlled systems. It's easy to get a situation where the little guys have very disproportionate power because the big guys need to cater to them to get 50% + 1. If they get a bit too power hungry you end up with a mess like Israel currently has.

 

[Jayjay]

I have looked at Israeli English language media. I'd say there is a wide diversity in opinion. Over here we only hear the conservatives side, aka Netanyahu. Lively debate.

There is strong opposition to the conservatives along with settlements and like over here are attacked as subservice and so on. I watched an interview over here of a woman who wrote a book about Netanyahu pre Trump essentially painting him as a liar and propagandist like Trump.

Coalition govt versus our two party system. How many governments has Italy had post war?

One thing Italy and Israel have in common is that they have closed party lists. That is, voters have no say in who gets elected in the parliament, only how many seats a party gets. The people in the list and their priorities are decided by party bosses (though in Italy there are some seats that are allocated via single-member first-past-the-post districts).

Compare and contrast with Nordic countries that have open lists: not only can the voter impact which parties to support, they also have a say in who in that party get priority.

I've given this a bit more thought and tried to understand the mechanism of why certain countries like the Netherlands seem more stable than Italy or Israel, despite both of them having multi-party coalitions.

In open lists, every elections means that the candidates inside the parties are pitted against each other to some extent. It's very stressful and politicians usually don't want to defer anything to the people, so the bar to have new elections is high. In Israel though the MPs are chosen by the party internally, and a perturbation of a couple of seats has no bearing on anyone except a couple of candidates at the middle of the list. It doesn't hurt the top dogs whose seats are secured even if the party loses seats, nor the bottom-rung that has no chance of getting in anyway. Consequently, if a party leader or strategists think they have a shot at winning a few more seats, they are much more prone to using early elections as a tool for doing so, rather than try to compromise with other parties that can make the same calculation. They just keep rolling the dice until they get the result that suits them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It appears the castle fell into the swamp. Likud just shy of majority and the opposition so fracktured, Robert Fripp is the leader of it. Arab group looks to have 5 seats meaning they can be kingmakers... or they'll just do this all over again in 6 or so months.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I have looked at Israeli English language media. I'd say there is a wide diversity in opinion. Over here we only hear the conservatives side, aka Netanyahu. Lively debate.

There is strong opposition to the conservatives along with settlements and like over here are attacked as subservice and so on. I watched an interview over here of a woman who wrote a book about Netanyahu pre Trump essentially painting him as a liar and propagandist like Trump.

Coalition govt versus our two party system. How many governments has Italy had post war?

One thing Italy and Israel have in common is that they have closed party lists. That is, voters have no say in who gets elected in the parliament, only how many seats a party gets. The people in the list and their priorities are decided by party bosses (though in Italy there are some seats that are allocated via single-member first-past-the-post districts).

Compare and contrast with Nordic countries that have open lists: not only can the voter impact which parties to support, they also have a say in who in that party get priority.

I've given this a bit more thought and tried to understand the mechanism of why certain countries like the Netherlands seem more stable than Italy or Israel, despite both of them having multi-party coalitions.

In open lists, every elections means that the candidates inside the parties are pitted against each other to some extent. It's very stressful and politicians usually don't want to defer anything to the people, so the bar to have new elections is high. In Israel though the MPs are chosen by the party internally, and a perturbation of a couple of seats has no bearing on anyone except a couple of candidates at the middle of the list. It doesn't hurt the top dogs whose seats are secured even if the party loses seats, nor the bottom-rung that has no chance of getting in anyway. Consequently, if a party leader or strategists think they have a shot at winning a few more seats, they are much more prone to using early elections as a tool for doing so, rather than try to compromise with other parties that can make the same calculation. They just keep rolling the dice until they get the result that suits them.

Interesting. I strongly suspect you're right. Politicians care a lot more about their own position than the overall function of government.

 

[steve_bank]

Note how Netanyahu clings to the Ian boogeyman.

His schtick now is be terrified of Iran but hey those Arabs who tried to overrun us in multiple wars aint so bad after all.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Swamp Castle reprieve?

Israeli opposition parties announced on Wednesday that they had reached a coalition agreement to form a government and oust Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history and a dominant figure who has pushed his nation’s politics to the right.

The announcement could lead to the easing of a political impasse that has produced four elections in two years and left Israel without a stable government or a state budget. If Parliament ratifies the fragile agreement in a confidence vote in the coming days, it will also bring down the curtain, if only for an intermission, on the premiership of a leader who has defined contemporary Israel more than any other.

An ungodly coalition of every walk of life in Israeli politics has joined together, at least for the moment, to finally unseat Netanyahu as the leader of Israel. The coalition includes parties that seek to destroy Israel, anything that isn't Israel, loves puppies, hates puppies, and even the super-moderate party that takes no positions on anything and even that they aren't very strong opined on.

It would be the equivalent of a coalition in the US of Bernie Sanders, Richard Spencer, Tim Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Ted Kaczynski, Amy Schumer, Ocasio-Cortez, and Newt Gingrich... to form a majority party in the US Senate.

Netanyahu faces an uphill battle at this point because the hatred of him is driving this coalition that could possibly only agree to shooting down an asteroid before it hit Earth... maybe.

 

[Gospel]

If Netanyahu can explain how Jews went from brown people south of the Sahara to White people above the Sahara he'd get my vote.

 

[Tigers!]

If Netanyahu can explain how Jews went from brown people south of the Sahara to White people above the Sahara he'd get my vote.

The Diaspora https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diaspora probably had something to do with that.
Anyway Jewishness is not skin colour based.

 

[Tigers!]

Israel, much like the King of Swamp Castle, has been repeating the same process over and over again and hoping that the fourth time is the charm.

Israel has had three parliamentary elections in the past couple of years, this'll be the fourth. How come? Do they just like voting this much?

Proportional representation, whilst better than FPTP, is not perfect. It does increase the risk of instability.

Italy between ~1950 and Berlusconi had something like 45 governments is about 50 years.

 

[Patooka]

Israel, much like the King of Swamp Castle, has been repeating the same process over and over again and hoping that the fourth time is the charm.

Israel has had three parliamentary elections in the past couple of years, this'll be the fourth. How come? Do they just like voting this much?

Proportional representation, whilst better than FPTP, is not perfect. It does increase the risk of instability.

Italy between ~1950 and Berlusconi had something like 45 governments is about 50 years.

You do realise Australia has gone through more Prime Ministers than Italy this century, right?

 

[Gospel]

If Netanyahu can explain how Jews went from brown people south of the Sahara to White people above the Sahara he'd get my vote.

The Diaspora https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diaspora probably had something to do with that.
Anyway Jewishness is not skin colour based.

Yeah, whatever. I have an Asian friend who was born and raised in Jamacia. He recognizes (and so do I) where his parents/Grandparents came from (Hmong). so apparently being Jamaican isn't skin color-based either, yet he and I both know how he came to be Jamaican. I'm just curious how we got the Jews we have today.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Netanyahu can explain how Jews went from brown people south of the Sahara to White people above the Sahara he'd get my vote.

The Diaspora https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diaspora probably had something to do with that.
Anyway Jewishness is not skin colour based.

Yeah, whatever. I have an Asian friend who was born and raised in Jamacia. He recognizes (and so do I) where his parents/Grandparents came from (Hmong). so apparently being Jamaican isn't skin color-based either, yet he and I both know how he came to be Jamaican. I'm just curious how we got the Jews we have today.

 

[Gospel]

Yeah, whatever. I have an Asian friend who was born and raised in Jamacia. He recognizes (and so do I) where his parents/Grandparents came from (Hmong). so apparently being Jamaican isn't skin color-based either, yet he and I both know how he came to be Jamaican. I'm just curious how we got the Jews we have today.

Yeah, now that I've re-read my own post. I agree.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Israel, much like the King of Swamp Castle, has been repeating the same process over and over again and hoping that the fourth time is the charm.

Israel has had three parliamentary elections in the past couple of years, this'll be the fourth. How come? Do they just like voting this much?

Proportional representation, whilst better than FPTP, is not perfect. It does increase the risk of instability.

Italy between ~1950 and Berlusconi had something like 45 governments is about 50 years.

And it gives disproportionate power to the small parties. I'm not at all sure it's better.

 

[Tigers!]

Israel, much like the King of Swamp Castle, has been repeating the same process over and over again and hoping that the fourth time is the charm.

Israel has had three parliamentary elections in the past couple of years, this'll be the fourth. How come? Do they just like voting this much?

Proportional representation, whilst better than FPTP, is not perfect. It does increase the risk of instability.

Italy between ~1950 and Berlusconi had something like 45 governments is about 50 years.

You do realise Australia has gone through more Prime Ministers than Italy this century, right?

It took the Italians about 60 years but they finally worked it out.

Australia had that destructive phase of letting anyone have ago at being PM. Never works well. All voting systems tend to suffer from occasional bouts of irrationality.

 

[Jayjay]

Israel, much like the King of Swamp Castle, has been repeating the same process over and over again and hoping that the fourth time is the charm.

Israel has had three parliamentary elections in the past couple of years, this'll be the fourth. How come? Do they just like voting this much?

Proportional representation, whilst better than FPTP, is not perfect. It does increase the risk of instability.

Italy between ~1950 and Berlusconi had something like 45 governments is about 50 years.

And it gives disproportionate power to the small parties. I'm not at all sure it's better.

There isn't a single obvious way of implementing proportionality. Some countries use high thresholds to keep out smaller parties; some are split to several smaller districts which cause implicit hidden thresholds. There are also different ways of counting the votes, d'Hondt method slightly favors larger parties whereas Sainte-Lague gives an edge to smaller ones. The point being, that there aren't necessarily a large number of small parties ruining the show.

Personally, I think it's healthy to have some small parties, because competition is good.