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Wartime draft vs vaccine mandate

The unvaccinated are much more likely to do so. Keeping those who are most likely to spread deadly diseases from doing so is logical and rational for a society eishing to avoid a worse pandemic.

Metaphor said:
I asked Toni what her stop scenario was. She said 'until the pandemic is over'. But she hasn't told me what she thinks the pandemic being over means. Without naming the conditions, her stop scenario is "people will be confined until I say so".
So what? Any standard Toni gives is “her say so”.

Metaphor is now attempting to use you to goad me into further engaging with him, by presenting his interpretations of my posts as my actual posts and statements.

Instead, he could just ask me directly what I mean by 'end of pandemic.' Metaphor clearly understands that I have no say so in whether or not people are confined to their homes unless they are vaccinated.
 
Consider a population. No vaccine, eventually everyone's going to get it. Thus being vaccinated is akin to spreading Covid, the timeframe is just uncertain.

What diseases does an entire population get? Even the most dire predictions in March 2020 did not envision 100% of the population getting infected.

And Covid is approaching a lifetime worth of DUI deaths--given the apparent undercounting it's probably already passed that point.

Apparent undercounting? Where do you get that idea? It seems to me that the statistics include everybody who died with COVID, even when they did not die from COVID.

That's not what the data says. Having had Covid gives you good immunity towards that variant. However, as usual with coronaviruses it often isn't very good against variants. That's why we never had a coronavirus vaccine before--they don't work very well. Look at the real-world performance turned in by Sinovac--it's a killed-virus vaccine and confers the same type of immunity that infection would have. Quite effective in the trials where it was facing the same version, very disappointing in deployment where time had passed and it was facing variants.

And that is surely the case with future variants. Being vaccinated now won't be good protection from unknown variants in the future.

This is an area where the libertarian approach fails pretty badly--activities that pose a small risk to a large number of people.

Being in the community without COVID was quite common before 2019, I hear. Unvaccinated people do not have permanent COVID.
 
The unvaccinated are much more likely to do so. Keeping those who are most likely to spread deadly diseases from doing so is logical and rational for a society eishing to avoid a worse pandemic.

Metaphor said:
I asked Toni what her stop scenario was. She said 'until the pandemic is over'. But she hasn't told me what she thinks the pandemic being over means. Without naming the conditions, her stop scenario is "people will be confined until I say so".
So what? Any standard Toni gives is “her say so”.

Metaphor is now attempting to use you to goad me into further engaging with him, by presenting his interpretations of my posts as my actual posts and statements.

Instead, he could just ask me directly what I mean by 'end of pandemic.' Metaphor clearly understands that I have no say so in whether or not people are confined to their homes unless they are vaccinated.


I asked you directly several posts ago.
 
Toni is supremely confident her no-exceptions house arrest is the right and just and sensible thing to do. She's detailed all the conditions. But there is one thing she has not detailed. Her stop condition. She assured me it wasn't perpetual house arrest. Just until the pandemic is over. So, she must have some idea of what she means when she says that.
Do you have an actual point?


Yes: I want Toni to describe her stop condition in the same detail she described her house arrest policy.
 
The idea is to keep the driver from handing his beer to a passenger when pulled over--but what if it's the passenger's beer in the first place?
This is why 'open container' is a separate charge, rather than an automatic DUI. We don't have telepathic cops, so he cannot detect guilt.

I have once unknowingly violated the open container law-
i don't think it violates the law if the beer is not in reach 9f the driver. But even so, your problem would be with the passenger who sandbagged you. Make him pay the fine.
 
And Covid is approaching a lifetime worth of DUI deaths--given the apparent undercounting it's probably already passed that point.

I missed this point before. Say what?

In Australia, the road toll is at least 1,000 people per year. Around a third of those deaths can be attributed to drink driving accidents. Now I don't know what a 'lifetime' of DUI deaths is (70 years worth)? About 1,500 have died from COVID in Australia, whereas a 'lifetime' of the DUI road toll would be more than 25,000 deaths.
 
This is why 'open container' is a separate charge, rather than an automatic DUI. We don't have telepathic cops, so he cannot detect guilt.

I imagine it's not an automatic DUI because we can detect whether a driver is driving under the influence from his breath alcohol. Do police officers not have breath testing units in America?
 
Toni is supremely confident her no-exceptions house arrest is the right and just and sensible thing to do. She's detailed all the conditions. But there is one thing she has not detailed. Her stop condition. She assured me it wasn't perpetual house arrest. Just until the pandemic is over. So, she must have some idea of what she means when she says that.
Do you have an actual point?


Yes: I want Toni to describe her stop condition in the same detail she described her house arrest policy.
You do realize that historically every pandemic has stopped. So there readon for your want is?
 
Yes: I want Toni to describe her stop condition in the same detail she described her house arrest policy.
You do realize that historically every pandemic has stopped. So there readon for your want is?

The reason is I want to know what Toni's stop condition is. I don't know how I can make it clearer. What is Toni's stop condition? She has been quite specific in the details of her house arrest. I want that level of detail for her stop condition. Is her stop condition a percentage of a population that is vaxxed? Is it the number of new cases being below a certain level for a certain time period? What is it?
 
Yes: I want Toni to describe her stop condition in the same detail she described her house arrest policy.
You do realize that historically every pandemic has stopped. So there readon for your want is?

The reason is I want to know what Toni's stop condition is. I don't know how I can make it clearer. What is Toni's stop condition? She has been quite specific in the details of her house arrest. I want that level of detail for her stop condition. Is her stop condition a percentage of a population that is vaxxed? Is it the number of new cases being below a certain level for a certain time period? What is it?
Toni indicated when the pandemic was over. For some unstated reason, you feel the need for more specificity. Why?
 
Yes: I want Toni to describe her stop condition in the same detail she described her house arrest policy.
You do realize that historically every pandemic has stopped. So there readon for your want is?

The reason is I want to know what Toni's stop condition is. I don't know how I can make it clearer. What is Toni's stop condition? She has been quite specific in the details of her house arrest. I want that level of detail for her stop condition. Is her stop condition a percentage of a population that is vaxxed? Is it the number of new cases being below a certain level for a certain time period? What is it?

Are you saying you would find the proposal acceptable if a suitable stop condition were defined, or are you just wasting everyone's time? If the former, what would an acceptable threshold look like to you? If the latter, what difference could it possibly make what the stop condition might be, if you would reject the proposal no matter how it was defined?
 
The reason is I want to know what Toni's stop condition is. I don't know how I can make it clearer. What is Toni's stop condition? She has been quite specific in the details of her house arrest. I want that level of detail for her stop condition. Is her stop condition a percentage of a population that is vaxxed? Is it the number of new cases being below a certain level for a certain time period? What is it?
Toni indicated when the pandemic was over. For some unstated reason, you feel the need for more specificity. Why?

Because I want to know what her stop condition is. Since Toni has put out a quite detailed list of house arrest conditions, it seems to me she must have some understanding of when it might stop. "When the pandemic is over" may indeed be her stop condition. But how does she define the pandemic being over?
 
Are you saying you would find the proposal acceptable if a suitable stop condition were defined, or are you just wasting everyone's time?

Holy false dichotomy, Batman!

Whether I find Toni's house arrest policy 'acceptable' is besides the point. I might think it is a bad policy, but there is still elements that could make it better or worse. One of those elements would be that there is a limited time horizon, or at least a measurable stop condition.

If the former, what would an acceptable threshold look like to you?

In NSW, as I understand it, the 'stop' condition is planned for 1 December this year. There might still be overall population restrictions on that date, but the vaxxed and the unvaxxed will not have differing restrictions. Although placing people under house arrest based on their willingness to have a medical procedure is still not a good policy and I do not agree with it, it is less bad if the policy lasts six weeks and not six years.

If the latter, what difference could it possibly make what the stop condition might be, if you would reject the proposal no matter how it was defined?

It might benefit the people who propose such sweeping restrictions to reflect on exactly what they are proposing. Does Toni know? Has she thought about the stop condition for the millions under house arrest because they refused a particular medical procedure?
 
Because I want to know what her stop condition is. Since Toni has put out a quite detailed list of house arrest conditions, it seems to me she must have some understanding of when it might stop. "When the pandemic is over" may indeed be her stop condition. But how does she define the pandemic being over?
“Because I wanna”is a stupid reason.
 
Going out in public is a COVID-danger only if you have COVID, just as driving is a drunk-driving danger only if you are drunk.
People who are not drunk do not pose a drunk-driving risk.
Your analogy would work if people knew they were infected or going to infect someone. But they don't. Which is why it doesn't work. The damage has already happened when the person has contracted covid, which is why that is the car crash. To me your analogy is telling people, that car crashes are only bad when people are in car crashes. The bad part has already happened. If you want to prevent car crashes you discourage the unnecessarily risky behavior that tends to lead to car crashes.

Yep, there's risk and there is unnecessary risk. Most modern societies have decided to prohibit unnecessary risk by outlawing it.

People who are not drunk do not pose a drunk-driving risk.


Except that people who are unvaccinated DO pose a greater risk of contracting and spreading the virus. THIS is why your analogy doesn't work. THIS is what I have told you from the beginning. You refuse to acknowledge that choosing to go unvaccinated in public is unnecessarily risky behavior.

People get sick all the time and they assume that they just have a cold until their symptoms become more distinctive so they go to work and attend town council meetings and sneeze on the produce in the grocery store because they "just have a cold" and they need to do their business. But they are wrong and they have already caused damage in society.
Do all the elements line up too perfectly for you?

No, the opposite. Equating being unvaxxed with permanent drunkenness is the element that lines up rather badly.
Except that it is. People who choose to be drunk permanently should have their driver's licenses taken away. If they continue to drive despite their choice to be drunk permanently, they should be punished by the authorities to discourage that behavior in others. What's the problem here?
Being unvaccinated in public is a state of being drunk and driving. You can be as unvaccinated as you want if you stay private.

No: having COVID in public is a state of being drunk and driving.
But it doesn't work that way in the real world. People are infecting others unintentionally and unknowingly. That is how the disease spreads. The solution to your analogy is to punish people who are deliberately spreading the virus knowingly. But that isn't a solution that actually solves anything. The damage is already done. I mean sure, we should hunnish that behavior too, and that is what we do, because people who drive drunk get one Driving intoxicated charge and people who drive drunk and crash get the charge for Driving intoxicated and multiple other charges for the damage they do. That's why crashing is equivalent to getting Covid. And the Driving Intoxicated is the risky behavior of public unvacinatedness.

Sending people to jail is unbearable for them and permissible for society. This is how society has worked for millenia. You sound like you are hearing this for the first time. YES. We discourage bad behavior by making the choice to engage in it result in unbearable circumstances for the person who choses poorly. Kidnapping is essentially what jail is. Capital punishment is a thing too. Some societies kill the people who don't make the "favored choice" as you call it. How do you not understand this?

But that's what I'm asking you. Why don't you simply kill the people who refuse to vaccinate?

Then, their risk of drunk driving is zero. You don't like unnecessary risk.
This is a weird red herring. There is a thing called nuance and measured response. I don't want drunk drivers to be executed, that is too extreme. I don't even advocate for any punishment at all for people who get drunk responsibly. The consequences for drinking is you aren't allowed behind the wheel. The consequences for being unvaccinated are that you aren't allowed in public. The consequences for drinking and driving are that you face the potential for jail time. The consequences for being unvaccinated in public should be that you face... some serious repercussions enforced by societies authorities.

It isn't entirely clear at this point that COVID recovery is better or worse than the vaccine, but it is also mostly un-documentable and therefore prone to adding corruption to this hypothetical mandate system.

We know how to detect if somebody has COVID-19. If they've had a positive result and there is evidence for it, why can you not point to your results and say 'I've had COVID'? Indeed, the documentation (of a positive result) should be acceptable to the authority that created it, should it not?
The test doesn't tell us if you are still contagious.

If it is true that "natural immunity" only protects you from the strain you contracted the first time, but it is known that the vaccine protects against a broader variety of variants then this documentation also becomes a meaningless indication of safety.

The vaccine is easily available in many places and comes with documentation that can be verified by an authority. Also offering Covid recovery as an alternative to vaccines makes getting covid into an beneficial outcome for some people. That's bad. We don't want people trying to get the disease just so that they can get their covid passport.

I do wonder how they can go out and get COVID if they are in perpetual house arrest? After all, the perpetual house arrest is supposed to prevent them getting it, isn't it?
Have you ever met someone who drives faster than the speed limit? I have.

Regardless, it is counterproductive to the purpose and intent of the vaccine mandate if there is an option that rewards the reckless behavior that the mandate aims to eliminate.
 
Because I want to know what her stop condition is. Since Toni has put out a quite detailed list of house arrest conditions, it seems to me she must have some understanding of when it might stop. "When the pandemic is over" may indeed be her stop condition. But how does she define the pandemic being over?
“Because I wanna”is a stupid reason.

Thank you for the feedback. Either Toni will supply her answer or she will not.
 
People who are not drunk do not pose a drunk-driving risk.

The problem with this is that in this scenario it's not possible for the person to actually know if they're drunk.

So much the less it is possible for a vaccinated person to realise they are drunk. Being vaccinated makes your experience of the virus more moderate than it would have been. Some people might be completely asymptomatic the whole time whereas if they'd been unvaccinated, they might realise something is wrong.
 
What diseases does an entire population get? Even the most dire predictions in March 2020 did not envision 100% of the population getting infected.

Novel infections with high transmissibility tend to hit everybody eventually. Look at what happened to the New World.

Apparent undercounting? Where do you get that idea? It seems to me that the statistics include everybody who died with COVID, even when they did not die from COVID.

Undercounting--look at the death rate compared to the average. Note that even this will still be an undercount, just not as bad a one. A few places with lockdowns and little Covid saw the expected results: A lower death rate. Most places saw a substantially increased death rate.

And there aren't going to be a lot of deaths where you're diagnosed with Covid but it didn't play a role in your death. If you're already severely weakened by something else Covid is generally going to finish you off. And note that other than trauma, the things that get you to the hospital to die there are mostly things that Covid can cause. There will be some trauma cases that don't make it, but the numbers will be small. (And note that trauma can be caused by Covid--a lack of oxygen combined with a situation where you will be harmed if you don't do the right thing. Say, going down stairs.)

That's not what the data says. Having had Covid gives you good immunity towards that variant. However, as usual with coronaviruses it often isn't very good against variants. That's why we never had a coronavirus vaccine before--they don't work very well. Look at the real-world performance turned in by Sinovac--it's a killed-virus vaccine and confers the same type of immunity that infection would have. Quite effective in the trials where it was facing the same version, very disappointing in deployment where time had passed and it was facing variants.

And that is surely the case with future variants. Being vaccinated now won't be good protection from unknown variants in the future.

That's why they're targeting the spike protein--it's a lot more stable than most of the rest of the virus. Eventually it probably will evade the vaccine and new shots will be needed, but so far it's considered good enough.

This is an area where the libertarian approach fails pretty badly--activities that pose a small risk to a large number of people.

Being in the community without COVID was quite common before 2019, I hear. Unvaccinated people do not have permanent COVID.

I was talking about the more general case. The libertarian approach can't handle public safety. Covid is simply one such example--the harm to any given individual from risky behavior by any other given individual is too low to handle by compensation. It has to be handled at the population level.

How about a quasi-libertarian approach? Those that are reckless about Covid are fined enough to pay the costs (including compensation for deaths, disability) incurred by those who are careful. Oops--I rather suspect the Covidiots go bankrupt.
 
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