• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

However, this isn't a US foreign policy thread!
I have created few such threads. You can hear crickets there. Latest one was merged with this stupid thread and everyone ignored the video I posted.

This thread is about Russia threatening (already has) to invade a sovereign country. And whether or the west (which includes the countries in Europe) should band together to stop this imperialism.
No, this thread is about about american imperialism

But not everything revolves around the US.
Of course, everyone knows everything revolves around Putin. US Media says so.
You're being overly dramatic here. The Ukraine situation revolves around Putin. If Putin wants it badly enough, he'll take it. The West and Ukraine can make it painful for him, but we won't be able to stop him. If he decides that the costs to invade are too grave, he won't invade. It's as simple as that.
 
but the entire country of Ukraine did vote overwhelmingly (97%) for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 just before that country collapsed. The vote was overwhelming even in the Donbas region, but only about half or slightly more favored separation in Crimea. And that was a vote carried out by the Soviet Union itself. (See
wikipedia.png
1991 Soviet Union referendum)
Do you have some kind of impediment or something?
I told you to read your damn links before posting them.
They voted to stay in that referendum!
They voted to stay in that referendum!
They voted to stay in that referendum!


The one which they voted to leave was held after August 1991 putsch.

Stop posting garbage and start reading your own links.
Below is a good link:


92% voted for independence. Interestingly, more than 50% of the Russian speaking Ukrainians voted for independence.
 
but the entire country of Ukraine did vote overwhelmingly (97%) for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 just before that country collapsed. The vote was overwhelming even in the Donbas region, but only about half or slightly more favored separation in Crimea. And that was a vote carried out by the Soviet Union itself. (See
wikipedia.png
1991 Soviet Union referendum)
Do you have some kind of impediment or something?
I told you to read your damn links before posting them.
They voted to stay in that referendum!
They voted to stay in that referendum!
They voted to stay in that referendum!


The one which they voted to leave was held after August 1991 putsch.

Stop posting garbage and start reading your own links.

Sorry, barbos, but you weren't specific about which link you were talking about before, so I couldn't very well do anything about it. You were finally a bit more forthcoming here about what you were complaining about, so I went back and checked. You were right that I conflated the general referendum that Gorbachev promoted with the later Ukrainian referendum for independence. There were two separate referendums. The earlier one did not give republics the option to secede, although it did contribute to the general mood that the central government was losing control. One could argue that it led to the Ukrainian one on actual secession, which passed overwhelmingly except in Crimea. The Donbas region was somewhat less enthusiastic than the western half of the country, but a majority still voted to secede. Sorry for the confusion, but I have to admit that my memory of the specific events 30 years ago that led to the breakup of the SU was not as clear as it should have been. I still stand by the points I made about why the SU broke up, and it is still true that the US, UK, and Russia are still obligated to abide by the Budapest Memorandum that was signed before Putin took power.

Today's summit meeting between Putin and Biden seemed to go off as expected. No breakthroughs, but it does look like there is a lot of work ahead for diplomats to try to patch something together that will help Putin stop himself from making a colossal mistake. I suspect that his two main goals are holding on to Crimea and getting Nord Stream 2 operational. It definitely would not help for him to get Russia in a situation where it cannot easily conduct foreign currency exchanges the way that other countries do.
 
You should read ALL links before posting them.

And you should read all my links after I post them. I'm glad you called it to my attention, Mr. Cranky. :)

And С новым годом! Let's hope that it's a peaceful one for everyone.
 
This is an interesting article on the possible sanctions that Putin is facing, but I think that the author's ultimate suggestion is delusional. He thinks that Vladimir Putin could be embarrassed into not invading Ukraine if the extent of his offshore dealings were revealed. I think that they are planning to stop Russia from converting rubles to dollars, since that would have the least immediate impact on ordinary Russians, but they could also more easily cut Russia off from SWIFT. The author doesn't think that Biden would dare either of those two options.

Truly targeted economic sanctions might work with Putin
 
The question is strategic interest. There is none in Ukraine. We have a nuclear deterrent and NATO. There is no need to provide militray supoort to Ukraine, another esource sink hole that gives us no benefit.

Biden campaigned on getting us out of conflict and took the political hit on withdrawing from Afghanistan.

Now he is potentialy putting us in another no win situation. Does anyone think given Afghanistan and Iraq Europeans are going to fight Russia in any capacity?

NATO was creqted to defend wetrn Europe from Russian aggression, not to go to war to try and crease a democracy.

You also have to commander collusion between China and Russia to create simultaneous military pressure over Ukraine and Taiwan. Add the potential for NK to take advantage and get agressive.

A potential two front conflict against well armed adversaries.

We could easily walk into a conflict that escalates out of control.

Steve, Europe itself is threatened by expansion of the Russian Federation to reoccupy countries that had voted overwhelmingly to leave the Russia-dominated Soviet Union. Right now, Belarus is pretty much controlled by Russia and may well be absorbed in the future. What is happening in Ukraine is destabilizing Europe. That is not instigated by the US or NATO, which poses no realistic threat to Russia except as a safeguard against intimidation and blackmail against its neighbors. Putin is quite clear that the greatest tragedy in his life was the breakup of the Soviet Union, which followed a free and open vote within the Soviet Union about whether its member republics wanted to remain in the union. That was a resounding "no", even within Russia itself.

If we were not to stand firm against Russian aggression in Ukraine, which we have formally pledged to guarantee (along with the UK and Russia), then that would encourage even more aggression elsewhere, likely in the Baltics and Georgia. It would not end with Ukraine any more than Hitler's concessions in Czechoslovakia led him to stop himself from invading neighboring countries. Moreover, the main pro-Kremlin mouthpiece--RT--has just published an article that appears to threaten the right of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, even though they have long had close ties with the alliance. (See Finland & Sweden in NATO would trigger response – Russia). This behavior by Russia is driving countries in eastern Europe closer to NATO and the EU, not further away from it, and it does not justify Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territory.

You've been making a very persuasive case, as you do above.

I agree. The nations of eastern Europe and Ukraine have NO desire to become tributary states to Russia. They all have seen and continue to see their economic and security future with the West, with Europe. None of the Soviet Union's former republics are clamoring to rejoin with Russia, not even those who are already under involuntary subordination.

Putin and Hitler have much in common, except Putin is far more patient (more akin to Stalin). In rebuilding the Russian empire, he is first focusing on "Sudetenland" countries with some significant portion of ethnic Russians. Hence, his eye has been on Georgia, Ukraine, and the Baltic states. Each of them offer a pretext for annexation, of "Greater Russia" ownership protecting Russian populations.

Like Hitler, Putin is using a combination of military threats, propaganda, and a constant demand of concessions to demoralize his victims and the West. And, and consistent with historic Russian imperialist character, he will be back demanding more at later date ... becoming progressively more extreme as Russian military power grows and Western will weakens.

Indeed, we have already seen this escalation. Putin's latest demands on NATO are far beyond Ukraine, and impossible to accept (and he knows that) and is yet more strident than ever.

The West cannot backdown and allow the rebuilding of another totalitarian super state.
 
It is obvious that Putin is worried about his position within Russia. Between poor economic performance and rising opposition (the crackdown on dissidents and NGOs are clear examples of this reaction), I believe he is trying to divert attention from those troubles by rousing nationalistic sentiment. I don't think an Ukrainian invasion is strong possibility at all.

If barbos's posts are an accurate indication of Putin's propaganda campaign, most of the Russia population is swallowing his crapola.
 
It is obvious that Putin is worried about his position within Russia. Between poor economic performance and rising opposition (the crackdown on dissidents and NGOs are clear examples of this reaction), I believe he is trying to divert attention from those troubles by rousing nationalistic sentiment. I don't think an Ukrainian invasion is strong possibility at all.

If barbos's posts are an accurate indication of Putin's propaganda campaign, most of the Russia population is swallowing his crapola.
I've known a lot of Russians to be circumspect about what they will say in public, and it is often quite different from what they admit to in private. I don't see barbos's posts as reflecting what most Russians think, but they certainly reflect what a very large number of Russians think and feel about the Ukraine and other issues. Personally, I don't dismiss him as just a mouthpiece for official propaganda, but he probably doesn't feel inclined to bare his soul here on everything he believes. Bear in mind that these posts are visible to monitors of internet traffic in Russia, and it is easy to build text mining engines that identify posts on sensitive topics in large databases of unstructured text. I know, because I've worked on programming techniques that do just that. And what goes on in social media is heavily monitored by security organizations in many countries, especially Russia and the US.
 
The question is strategic interest. There is none in Ukraine. We have a nuclear deterrent and NATO. There is no need to provide militray supoort to Ukraine, another esource sink hole that gives us no benefit.

Biden campaigned on getting us out of conflict and took the political hit on withdrawing from Afghanistan.

Now he is potentialy putting us in another no win situation. Does anyone think given Afghanistan and Iraq Europeans are going to fight Russia in any capacity?

NATO was creqted to defend wetrn Europe from Russian aggression, not to go to war to try and crease a democracy.

You also have to commander collusion between China and Russia to create simultaneous military pressure over Ukraine and Taiwan. Add the potential for NK to take advantage and get agressive.

A potential two front conflict against well armed adversaries.

We could easily walk into a conflict that escalates out of control.

Steve, Europe itself is threatened by expansion of the Russian Federation to reoccupy countries that had voted overwhelmingly to leave the Russia-dominated Soviet Union. Right now, Belarus is pretty much controlled by Russia and may well be absorbed in the future. What is happening in Ukraine is destabilizing Europe. That is not instigated by the US or NATO, which poses no realistic threat to Russia except as a safeguard against intimidation and blackmail against its neighbors. Putin is quite clear that the greatest tragedy in his life was the breakup of the Soviet Union, which followed a free and open vote within the Soviet Union about whether its member republics wanted to remain in the union. That was a resounding "no", even within Russia itself.

If we were not to stand firm against Russian aggression in Ukraine, which we have formally pledged to guarantee (along with the UK and Russia), then that would encourage even more aggression elsewhere, likely in the Baltics and Georgia. It would not end with Ukraine any more than Hitler's concessions in Czechoslovakia led him to stop himself from invading neighboring countries. Moreover, the main pro-Kremlin mouthpiece--RT--has just published an article that appears to threaten the right of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, even though they have long had close ties with the alliance. (See Finland & Sweden in NATO would trigger response – Russia). This behavior by Russia is driving countries in eastern Europe closer to NATO and the EU, not further away from it, and it does not justify Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territory.

You've been making a very persuasive case, as you do above.

I agree. The nations of eastern Europe and Ukraine have NO desire to become tributary states to Russia. They all have seen and continue to see their economic and security future with the West, with Europe. None of the Soviet Union's former republics are clamoring to rejoin with Russia, not even those who are already under involuntary subordination.

Putin and Hitler have much in common, except Putin is far more patient (more akin to Stalin). In rebuilding the Russian empire, he is first focusing on "Sudetenland" countries with some significant portion of ethnic Russians. Hence, his eye has been on Georgia, Ukraine, and the Baltic states. Each of them offer a pretext for annexation, of "Greater Russia" ownership protecting Russian populations.

Like Hitler, Putin is using a combination of military threats, propaganda, and a constant demand of concessions to demoralize his victims and the West. And, and consistent with historic Russian imperialist character, he will be back demanding more at later date ... becoming progressively more extreme as Russian military power grows and Western will weakens.

Indeed, we have already seen this escalation. Putin's latest demands on NATO are far beyond Ukraine, and impossible to accept (and he knows that) and is yet more strident than ever.

The West cannot backdown and allow the rebuilding of another totalitarian super state.
Complete and utter garbage. Go and watch Mearsheimer's lecture.
 
Last edited:
It is obvious that Putin is worried about his position within Russia. Between poor economic performance and rising opposition (the crackdown on dissidents and NGOs are clear examples of this reaction), I believe he is trying to divert attention from those troubles by rousing nationalistic sentiment. I don't think an Ukrainian invasion is strong possibility at all.

If barbos's posts are an accurate indication of Putin's propaganda campaign, most of the Russia population is swallowing his crapola.
I've known a lot of Russians to be circumspect about what they will say in public, and it is often quite different from what they admit to in private. I don't see barbos's posts as reflecting what most Russians think, but they certainly reflect what a very large number of Russians think and feel about the Ukraine and other issues. Personally, I don't dismiss him as just a mouthpiece for official propaganda, but he probably doesn't feel inclined to bare his soul here on everything he believes. Bear in mind that these posts are visible to monitors of internet traffic in Russia, and it is easy to build text mining engines that identify posts on sensitive topics in large databases of unstructured text. I know, because I've worked on programming techniques that do just that. And what goes on in social media is heavily monitored by security organizations in many countries, especially Russia and the US.
KGB must have gotten to Mearsheimer too, right?
 
KGB must have gotten to Mearsheimer too, right?
Mearsheimer takes some positions that you find compatible with your own, since he makes a point of assigning more blame to the Western Alliance and NATO than Russia for the messes in Eastern Europe. But he is very pro-Western and does not support an invasion of Ukraine. I've asked you many times whether you agreed with his position that Ukraine should have retained its nuclear weapons in order to deter Russia from exactly the kind of aggressive behavior we are seeing now. You have never once deigned to respond.

There are other positions that Mearsheimer takes which are incompatible with yours, but he basically thinks of Russia as a potential ally against growing Chinese power, which is just plain delusional. He seems to think that large powers such as the US, Russia, and China have a right to dominate smaller nations that are on their borders, and he has drawn a lot of criticism for that kind of attitude. Other than that, he is a well-recognized political scientist who has some very interesting things to say about the clash between nations that are grounded in liberal democracy, which he strongly supports, and those grounded in tribal loyalties, which describes a very common attitude in Europe, especially Eastern Europe. Politically, Mearsheimer is a supporter of Bernie Sanders, who deeply opposes the annexation of Crimea, not to mention the Donbas. If you asked Mearsheimer himself, he would not have supported any invasion of Ukrainian territory, let alone a Russian-speaking areas like the Donbas, because he prefers nationhood based on diversity, not tribal nationalism. However, he prides himself in being a "realist", so he simply prefers to accept that Crimea won't be returned to Ukraine and move on.
 
Mearsheimer takes some positions that you find compatible with your own, since he makes a point of assigning more blame to the Western Alliance and NATO than Russia for the messes in Eastern Europe.
That's an excellent misrepresentation of his stance.
 
Back
Top Bottom