How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

As the value of the ruble tumbles, NATO appears to be rushing troops and equipment to its East European flank. A rapid deployment force of up to 8,500 troops is being readied for deployment. Those will be added to reinforce commitments by other European members. Lots of arms shipments are now arriving in Ukraine. Putin hasn't even started his invasion yet, and he has managed to kick the hornet's nest. If he doesn't get started soon, Ukraine will have more time to prepare, and his troops will get bogged down in mud, as the Spring thaw starts. After ringing Ukraine with Russian troops, is Putin still planning to pretend that Ukraine is leaving him no choice but to invade?

Ukraine: US troops on high alert over stand-off​

 

[Loren Pechtel]

According to EU investigation Georgia attacked South Ossetia with russian peacekeepers in it.
Yes, EU concluded that Saakashvili started that war. And he did so expecting NATO would help. Of course you don't know any of that because your MSM says Russia invaded Georgia and that was bad.

Convenient selection of a starting point.

South Ossetia fired artillery. Georgia responded by invading to stop the artillery.

The war started with the artillery, not the invasion.

 

[barbos]

According to EU investigation Georgia attacked South Ossetia with russian peacekeepers in it.
Yes, EU concluded that Saakashvili started that war. And he did so expecting NATO would help. Of course you don't know any of that because your MSM says Russia invaded Georgia and that was bad.

Convenient selection of a starting point.

South Ossetia fired artillery. Georgia responded by invading to stop the artillery.

The war started with the artillery, not the invasion.

No, they have been firing at each other for 30 years. That was not new. Escalation and georgian invasion was new and it happened because of Saakashvili just got an invitation into NATO and thought he can solve that problem.

 

[barbos]

No, but it is also not part of Georgia (Georgia thinks it is)

Wasn't that the same reason Russia took Crimea?

What do you mean? South Ossetia has never been part of independent Georgia.
Once USSR dissolved, they said "Nope, we don't want to be in Georgia and war started" Russia had nothing to do with it. Same with Abkhazia which was pretty much occupied by georgoians during soviet era, once USSR dissolved, Abkhazians immediately and very unceremoniously kicked georgians out.

Now, the question is, does Russia use this situation to its advantage - ABSOLUTELY!
Does not mean Russia created it. It was created during soviet era when land and people were moved without any consideration of what happens in the case of USSR dissolution

 

[Copernicus]

No, but it is also not part of Georgia (Georgia thinks it is)

Wasn't that the same reason Russia took Crimea?

What do you mean? South Ossetia has never been part of independent Georgia.
Once USSR dissolved, they said "Nope, we don't want to be in Georgia and war started" Russia had nothing to do with it. Same with Abkhazia which was pretty much occupied by georgoians during soviet era, once USSR dissolved Abkhazians immediately and very unceremoniously kicked georgians out.

Now, the question is, does Russia use this situation to its advantage - ABSOLUTELY!
Does not mean Russia created it. It was created during soviet era when land and people were moved without any consideration of what happens in the case of USSR dissolution

Barbos has again been taken in by the Russian misinformation machine. Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia were officially part of the Georgian SSR at the time of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and most countries in the world recognize them as part of Georgian territory. They were engaged in civil rebellion with Georgia, but Russia intervened after Georgia elected a pro-Western leader. Russia was supposed to be there in a peacekeeping role to police a ceasefire. Instead, it stood by while South Ossetia broke the ceasefire by opening up artillery barrages on Georgian territory. Barbos may not remember the actual history, but maybe he does and simply wishes it were different.

 

[SLD]

According to EU investigation Georgia attacked South Ossetia with russian peacekeepers in it.
Yes, EU concluded that Saakashvili started that war. And he did so expecting NATO would help. Of course you don't know any of that because your MSM says Russia invaded Georgia and that was bad.

Convenient selection of a starting point.

South Ossetia fired artillery. Georgia responded by invading to stop the artillery.

The war started with the artillery, not the invasion.

No, they have been firing at each other for 30 years. That was not new. Escalation and and georgian invasion was new and it happened because of Saakashvili just got invitation into NATO and thought he can solve that problem.

I do concur that Shrub’s reckless war mongering foreign policy was probably the stupidest moves in our history. I once said they’d one day lead to the downfall of the United States. Now it might end in nuclear holocaust. The stock market is swinging wildly. Down more than 2000 points since it’s high earlier this year. fears of war are in the air. But in the end this is Putin’s doing. And he is a damn fool if he thinks he can control this.

And as for Georgia, even Putin’s own defense minister admitted that they planned the war months before to ensure it would never join NATO.

 

[barbos]

I do concur that Shrub’s reckless war mongering foreign policy was probably the stupidest moves in our history.

Shrub did not invent it. It has always been that way. And it was Clinton who started NATO moving east. US Presidents don't really determine foreign policies. They are figureheads who know nothing and rely on un-elected "experts" who are wholly owned by Military Industrial Complex.

And as for Georgia, even Putin’s own defense minister admitted that they planned the war months before to ensure it would never join NATO.

Well, these people always plan all kind of plans. And they always lie about it afterwards.
So it may not have been so much as admission but bragging.
But I am sure Putin knew about Saakashvili plan to invade South Ossetia before it happened.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine dosn't owe Russia anything.

Not true. over 25 years Gazprom and other oil government controlled companies gave Ukraine $250bil in the form of discounts. Belarus got $150bil

That's not how discounts work. If I sell you a bicycle at a $50 discount, you get your bicycle and that $50 bucks remains in your wallet. You don't owe it to me in perpetuity.

Actually it works exactly like I wrote. Russia gave discounts on the condition of good behaviour. Now you can make a point how much of good behavior was that worth but it certainly more than zero. In my opinion, You pay support for 20 years you should get 20 years of good behavior after you stop, at least. In reality there Ukraine has always been shitty toward Russia even while getting support. I personally think russian expectations of getting something in return were foolish.

I don't even know where to begin with this nonsense. Apparently Ukraine was on good behaviour for 20 years (why else would Russia give it discount gas?), but for some reason now Russia thinks the behaviour has changed. Fine. Don't give the discount anymore. Or don't sell gas to Ukraine at all. It's Russia's prerogative. But there is no clause that Russia can go back to asking for reparations if Ukraine now starts behaving badly. But of course, Gazprom would just shoot itself in the foot if it stops selling gas, because it needs the money flowing. And in broader geopolitical picture, Russia needs Ukraine to remain dependent on Russian energy.

As for the ridiculous interpretation that Crimea was "rented" to Ukraine, there is no such treaty and it remained as part of Ukraine durng the dissolution of the Soviet Union. If anything, Russia should start paying rent to Ukraine for it.

I explained million times, Crimea was obtained by Ukraine illegally.
Yes it was de facto rented. The split was simply never finalized.

Yes, you "explained" that Crimea was obtained illegally because the Russian president at the time was very, very drunk, and you want a do-over. An ironclad legal loophole if there ever was one.

 

[Jayjay]

It's unfortunate, but understandable from people who are at war with Russia. The anti-Russian sentiment is not the root cause, it's a reaction to the current situation.

Nope! Try again. That shit started pretty much after they got independence and never stopped.
In fact that process started in all former USSR republics. They thought it was a great idea to build their national identity on trashing Russia equating it with Soviet Union.

Baltic States had pretty comical incidents while doing so.

The fact that you brought Baltic countries as another examples shows that it's not really about Ukrainian nationalists behaving badly. It's about Russian occupation that all former USSR nations had to contend with, which rightfully pissed everyone off. The reason why it's probably worse in Ukraine is paradoxically because of the commonalities between the nations: the nationalist in Ukraine have to be more extreme, because they have less of their own history and culture to fall back on.

 

[barbos]

It's unfortunate, but understandable from people who are at war with Russia. The anti-Russian sentiment is not the root cause, it's a reaction to the current situation.

Nope! Try again. That shit started pretty much after they got independence and never stopped.
In fact that process started in all former USSR republics. They thought it was a great idea to build their national identity on trashing Russia equating it with Soviet Union.

Baltic States had pretty comical incidents while doing so.

The fact that you brought Baltic countries as another examples shows that it's not really about Ukrainian nationalists behaving badly. It's about Russian occupation that all former USSR nations had to contend with, which rightfully pissed everyone off. The reason why it's probably worse in Ukraine is paradoxically because of the commonalities between the nations: the nationalist in Ukraine have to be more extreme, because they have less of their own history and culture to fall back on.

Mmm, I have never said it was about Ukrainian nationalists specifically.
It was about US running around Russia and throwing money at people to harrass Russia. So nationalist and nazi are perfect target for such financing. And yes, Baltic States have them.

Speaking of which, I remember Nuland doing negotiations with Right Sector (ukrainian nazi). She suggested them giving up weapons in exchange for US money for actually becoming a mainstream party. They ..... refused. But think about that.


You still don't believe me? How about right hand of Saakashvili saying the same thing I just told you? The fucking right hand of Saakashvili telling that US foreign policy in the region is basically giving money to anybody as long as they promise to hate Russia.

 

[barbos]

But in the end this is Putin’s doing. And he is a damn fool if he thinks he can control this

Nope, it's West's doing.

 

[barbos]

Yes, you "explained" that Crimea was obtained illegally because the Russian president at the time was very, very drunk, and you want a do-over. An ironclad legal loophole if there ever was one

It's more complicated than that. But basically yes. There was a lot of chaos right after dissolution of the USSR. In all republics including Ukraine. Drunk Eltsin was preoccupied with Tatarstan ignoring everything else, including Chehcnya where gangs of "freedom" fighters were literally murdering russian population who could not leave.

No need for do-over. Crimea had a right to leave Ukraine and then it was illegally stripped of that right. Not to mention that Sevastopol was not even part of Ukraine.
It's hard to believe but that's what happened. And the reason why it happened is because nobody in Ukraine/Russia/Belarus took USSR dissolution seriously, everyone thought, well, we will have this another union of independent states and we are all friends, we are all slavs, there is nothing to fight about. Basically as far as Belarus/Ukraine/Russia and even central Asia republics were concerned, dissolution did not happen at that time, it was just replaced with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States .
So Russia started to pay rent for the base which was not ukrainian and was not on Ukrainian land. I mean if you look at the map you would say yeah, it's natural for it to be ukrainian but it was not. That's crazy but that's what happened.

After NATO decided that they would like to have that base, Russia said - nope, you are not having it, hence Crimean referendum which was legal and results should be respected. Crimeans did actually vote to leave Ukraine and go back to Russia.

 

[Copernicus]

Barbos is so full of misinformation that it's hard to know where to begin. Sevastopol was always a part of Ukraine after it had lost its status as an autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic and been moved into Ukraine by Khrushchev. I myself visited Crimea in 1965 as a grad student on a Russian language study tour, and our plane landed in Sevastopol, where the airport was to take us to Yalta. So I know very well that it was a Ukrainian city, although it had a majority Russian population and had special federal status, since it was home to the Soviet Baltic fleet back then. Crimea had not been a part of Russia since the Russian Revolution, as has already been pointed out by me earlier. The fact that Russia paid rent to Ukraine for the use of that port was acknowledgment by Russia that Sevastopol was a city in Ukraine. When barbos said "That's crazy but that's what happened", he was only right in the first part of his sentence. NATO never "decided" or said that they wanted to have that base and has not invited Ukraine into NATO, despite repeated attempts by Ukraine to join. And, of course, the "Crimean referendum" was never legal, since it was completely managed by Russia after it had illegally seized Crimea. Anyway, everyone except barbos here seems to be aware of the facts, but a great many people in Russia actually believe this kind of claptrap.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine isn't going to attack Russia. Your theory doesn't pass the laugh test.

Maybe, maybe not. But Georgia did.

Can you elaborate? How did Georgia attack Russia? I’m unaware of any source even claiming that Georgian troops crossed the border into Russia. Please enlighten us.

According to EU investigation Georgia attacked South Ossetia with russian peacekeepers in it.
Yes, EU concluded that Saakashvili started that war. And he did so expecting NATO would help. Of course you don't know any of that because your MSM says Russia invaded Georgia and that was bad.

The same report that concluded that Georgia started the conflict, also explicitly said that Russia violated international law when it pushed to Georgian territory.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine isn't going to attack Russia. Your theory doesn't pass the laugh test.

Maybe, maybe not. But Georgia did.

Can you elaborate? How did Georgia attack Russia? I’m unaware of any source even claiming that Georgian troops crossed the border into Russia. Please enlighten us.

According to EU investigation Georgia attacked South Ossetia with russian peacekeepers in it.
Yes, EU concluded that Saakashvili started that war. And he did so expecting NATO would help. Of course you don't know any of that because your MSM says Russia invaded Georgia and that was bad.

The same report that concluded that Georgia started the conflict, also explicitly said that Russia violated international law when it pushed to Georgian territory.

I can live with that, after all, West lives with bombing Yugoslavia and Iraq invasion.
Also, keep in mind that investigation itself came from EU. They tried to blame russia but couldn't. Of course that report has never been mentioned by MSM.
Plus, what is international law? Asking UN for going to war with Georgia?
You know their puppet master would have vetoed it regardless.

First Iraq War was legal only because Russia did not veto it.
Second was flat out illegal and so was bombing of the Yugoslavia. International law is dead, US/West murdered it.

 

[barbos]

I don't even know where to begin with this nonsense. Apparently Ukraine was on good behaviour for 20 years (why else would Russia give it discount gas?), but for some reason now Russia thinks the behaviour has changed. Fine. Don't give the discount anymore. Or don't sell gas to Ukraine at all. It's Russia's prerogative. But there is no clause that Russia can go back to asking for reparations if Ukraine now starts behaving badly. But of course, Gazprom would just shoot itself in the foot if it stops selling gas, because it needs the money flowing. And in broader geopolitical picture, Russia needs Ukraine to remain dependent on Russian energy.

Nonsense is all yours.
Neither Ukraine nor Belarus have ever had good behavior.
One of the reasons Russia was paying was because both counties were transit countries and Russia would have lost more by not paying. These countries knew that and used it to extort money from Russian government.
Initially gas contracts were written is such a way that Ukraine had no responsibility for anything and they were literally stealing gas from the pipe and Europe was saying "not our problem"
Then metering and control improved that they could not simply steal.
Then there was a threat of EU integration which would cost Russia more than it costs to Ukraine. Security costs too. There are a lot of reasons for Russia to tolerate shit from a string of Ukrainan governments. West is bitching about Nord Stream forgetting the fact that transit over Ukraine is 4 times (If i remember correctly) more expensive than over Poland. And transit over sea is way less expensive and decoupled from international relations than land transit.

I personally disagree with such policies. I think Russia should just cut every country out and demand reparations for all that money. But that's just me. I don't know all the implications of having NATO in Ukraine.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It's unfortunate, but understandable from people who are at war with Russia. The anti-Russian sentiment is not the root cause, it's a reaction to the current situation.

Nope! Try again. That shit started pretty much after they got independence and never stopped.
In fact that process started in all former USSR republics. They thought it was a great idea to build their national identity on trashing Russia equating it with Soviet Union.

Baltic States had pretty comical incidents while doing so.

The fact that you brought Baltic countries as another examples shows that it's not really about Ukrainian nationalists behaving badly. It's about Russian occupation that all former USSR nations had to contend with, which rightfully pissed everyone off. The reason why it's probably worse in Ukraine is paradoxically because of the commonalities between the nations: the nationalist in Ukraine have to be more extreme, because they have less of their own history and culture to fall back on.

Mmm, I have never said it was about Ukrainian nationalists specifically.
It was about US running around Russia and throwing money at people to harrass Russia. So nationalist and nazi are perfect target for such financing. And yes, Baltic States have them.

Speaking of which, I remember Nuland doing negotiations with Right Sector (ukrainian nazi). She suggested them giving up weapons in exchange for US money for actually becoming a mainstream party. They ..... refused. But think about that.


You still don't believe me? How about right hand of Saakashvili saying the same thing I just told you? The fucking right hand of Saakashvili telling that US foreign policy in the region is basically giving money to anybody as long as they promise to hate Russia.

This is such a joke. I'm sorry to tell you this, but noone cares about trying to drum up hate for Russia! Russia's always think that they are the victims! If you want your neighbors to like you, treat them like a neighbor. Be nice. Don't feel that you are entitled to anything that you want just because you are the bully. If you need water for an area, negotiate for it. Trade fairly and with respect for your neighbor. If you have trade dispute, negotiate hard but fairly. Rely on a neutral court. Yes, you can mass your troops anywhere you want to within your country. But don't be so fucking stupid to get butt hurt when you mass your troops on a border; and then act the victim when the countries on the other side get alarmed at your actions. The reasons why all the countries on your border are moving west is that they are tired of being bullied, and they don't want to be conquered.

 

[barbos]

It's unfortunate, but understandable from people who are at war with Russia. The anti-Russian sentiment is not the root cause, it's a reaction to the current situation.

Nope! Try again. That shit started pretty much after they got independence and never stopped.
In fact that process started in all former USSR republics. They thought it was a great idea to build their national identity on trashing Russia equating it with Soviet Union.

Baltic States had pretty comical incidents while doing so.

The fact that you brought Baltic countries as another examples shows that it's not really about Ukrainian nationalists behaving badly. It's about Russian occupation that all former USSR nations had to contend with, which rightfully pissed everyone off. The reason why it's probably worse in Ukraine is paradoxically because of the commonalities between the nations: the nationalist in Ukraine have to be more extreme, because they have less of their own history and culture to fall back on.

Mmm, I have never said it was about Ukrainian nationalists specifically.
It was about US running around Russia and throwing money at people to harrass Russia. So nationalist and nazi are perfect target for such financing. And yes, Baltic States have them.

Speaking of which, I remember Nuland doing negotiations with Right Sector (ukrainian nazi). She suggested them giving up weapons in exchange for US money for actually becoming a mainstream party. They ..... refused. But think about that.


You still don't believe me? How about right hand of Saakashvili saying the same thing I just told you? The fucking right hand of Saakashvili telling that US foreign policy in the region is basically giving money to anybody as long as they promise to hate Russia.

This is such a joke. I'm sorry to tell you this, but noone cares about trying to drum up hate for Russia! Russia's always think that they are the victims! If you want your neighbors to like you, treat them like a neighbor. Be nice. Don't feel that you are entitled to anything that you want just because you are the bully. If you need water for an area, negotiate for it. Trade fairly and with respect for your neighbor. If you have trade dispute, negotiate hard but fairly. Rely on a neutral court. Yes, you can mass your troops anywhere you want to within your country. But don't be so fucking stupid to get butt hurt when you mass your troops on a border; and then act the victim when the countries on the other side get alarmed at your actions. The reasons why all the countries on your border are moving west is that they are tired of being bullied, and they don't want to be conquered.

You are not listening, you are just repeating the same garbage I refuted.
You are the bad guys, not Russia.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It's unfortunate, but understandable from people who are at war with Russia. The anti-Russian sentiment is not the root cause, it's a reaction to the current situation.

Nope! Try again. That shit started pretty much after they got independence and never stopped.
In fact that process started in all former USSR republics. They thought it was a great idea to build their national identity on trashing Russia equating it with Soviet Union.

Baltic States had pretty comical incidents while doing so.

The fact that you brought Baltic countries as another examples shows that it's not really about Ukrainian nationalists behaving badly. It's about Russian occupation that all former USSR nations had to contend with, which rightfully pissed everyone off. The reason why it's probably worse in Ukraine is paradoxically because of the commonalities between the nations: the nationalist in Ukraine have to be more extreme, because they have less of their own history and culture to fall back on.

Mmm, I have never said it was about Ukrainian nationalists specifically.
It was about US running around Russia and throwing money at people to harrass Russia. So nationalist and nazi are perfect target for such financing. And yes, Baltic States have them.

Speaking of which, I remember Nuland doing negotiations with Right Sector (ukrainian nazi). She suggested them giving up weapons in exchange for US money for actually becoming a mainstream party. They ..... refused. But think about that.


You still don't believe me? How about right hand of Saakashvili saying the same thing I just told you? The fucking right hand of Saakashvili telling that US foreign policy in the region is basically giving money to anybody as long as they promise to hate Russia.

This is such a joke. I'm sorry to tell you this, but noone cares about trying to drum up hate for Russia! Russia's always think that they are the victims! If you want your neighbors to like you, treat them like a neighbor. Be nice. Don't feel that you are entitled to anything that you want just because you are the bully. If you need water for an area, negotiate for it. Trade fairly and with respect for your neighbor. If you have trade dispute, negotiate hard but fairly. Rely on a neutral court. Yes, you can mass your troops anywhere you want to within your country. But don't be so fucking stupid to get butt hurt when you mass your troops on a border; and then act the victim when the countries on the other side get alarmed at your actions. The reasons why all the countries on your border are moving west is that they are tired of being bullied, and they don't want to be conquered.

You are not listening, you are just repeating the same garbage I refuted.
You are the bad guys, not Russia.

Do you honestly believe that the reason why e. European countries hate Mother Russia is only due to the CIA paying them secretly to hate Russia!? Honestly? It has nothing to do with Russia's actions?

 

[barbos]

Do you honestly believe that the reason why e. European countries hate Mother Russia is only due to the CIA paying them secretly to hate Russia!? Honestly?

Yes, I not honestly believe that, I know that for a fact.
I told you about Saakashvili right hand. She said exactly that.

And why do you look surprised? Do you honestly believe that republicans in congress believe that Biden stole the elections from Trump?

You have basically half of the US believing utter crap. And this is situation where the other half is present. In case of Russia-West there is no other half, it's not allowed to voice their opinion.

In Nazi Germany absolute majority believed crap Hitler was spewing. So, no need to get surprised.

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