How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

Amyway. according to official reporting. All Ukrainian border control people left Russia-Ukraine border and some 40 left to russian territiory.
One of the ukrainian Su-27 jet fled Ukraine and landed in Romania.

Russia seems to be destroying Ukrainian bases all over Ukraine.

That doesn't make sense the way you wrote it since everywhere is Russia. Let me fix this for you:

Amyway. according to official reporting. All Russian border control people left Russia-Russia border and some 40 left to russian territiory.
One of the russian Su-27 jet fled Russia and landed in Russia.

Russia seems to be destroying Russian bases all over Russia.

Really?

Well, according to you, TODAY and most recently you said Ukraine was always part of Russia. TOMORROW, what will it be? Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were always part of Russia? Will it go as far as Romania, Bulgaria, and Poland were always part of Russia?

There was an Ukraine long before Moscow was founded, long before Russia.

 

[lpetrich]

‘No other option’: Excerpts of Putin’s speech declaring war | Russia-Ukraine crisis News | Al Jazeera - "Before launching the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War II, Putin addressed his nation."

"In the early hours of Thursday, February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed his nation, announcing a “special military operation” against Ukraine."

Al Jazeera quoted translations of parts of his address, like

I am referring to the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders. It is well known that for 30 years we have persistently and patiently tried to reach an agreement with the leading NATO countries on the principles of equal and inviolable security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we constantly faced either cynical deception and lies, or attempts to pressure and blackmail, while NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, continued to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and, I repeat, it is coming close to our borders.

Then about what evil empires the Western powers are. Attacks on Belgrade, Iraq, Libya, Syria, ...

As NATO expands to the east, with every passing year, the situation for our country is getting worse and more dangerous. Moreover, in recent days the leadership of NATO has been openly talking about the need to speed up, force the advancement of the alliance’s infrastructure to the borders of Russia. In other words, they are doubling down on their position. We can no longer just watch what is happening. It would be absolutely irresponsible on our part.

...
About the situation in the Donbas. We see that the forces that carried out a coup in Ukraine in 2014, seized power and are holding it through sham electoral procedures, have given up on the peaceful settlement of the conflict. For eight years, for eight long years, we have done everything possible to resolve the situation by peaceful, political means. All was in vain.

Referring to the successful rebellion against pro-Russian resident Viktor Yanukovych.

 

[barbos]

There was an Ukraine long before Moscow was founded, long before Russia.

LOL, we already had this discussion, why again?
Yes, Ukraine is 400,000 years old

 

[barbos]

Meanwhile, group of members of Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) wrote a letter to President of Ukraine suggesting immediate talks with Russia.

 

[lpetrich]

As I said in my previous address, one cannot look at what is happening there without compassion. It is simply not possible to stand all this any more. It is necessary to immediately stop this nightmare – the genocide against the millions of people living there, who rely only on Russia, only on us. These aspirations, feelings, pain of people are the main motivation for us to take the decision to recognise the people’s republics of Donbas.

Genocide???

What I think is important to emphasise further is that the leading NATO countries, in order to achieve their own goals, support extreme nationalists and Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, who, in turn, will never forgive the Crimeans and Sevastopol residents for choosing reunification with Russia.

They, of course, will crawl into the Crimea, just like in the Donbas, in order to kill, just as the gangs of Ukrainian nationalists, Hitler’s accomplices, killed defenceless people during the Great Patriotic War. They openly lay claim to a number of other Russian territories.

...
Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the regime in Kyiv for eight years. And for this we will pursue the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation

What an evil empire Ukraine is!

Then addressing the Ukrainian armed forces.

Dear comrades! Your fathers, grandfathers, great-grandfathers did not fight the Nazis and defend our common Motherland, so that today’s Neo-Nazis can seize power in Ukraine. You took an oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people, and not to the anti-national junta that plunders Ukraine and abuses its people.

I tried to go to the source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828 but it timed out.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Check out this morning's Crooks and Liars. Michael McFaul, former ambassador to Russia, who has dealt with Putin tells us what he has experienced with Putin.

McFaul

"And his response to that attack and any threats is, do not defend Ukraine, I will employ nuclear weapons. He has been saying that for the past few months. They've said it on state TV about reducing the West to ashes. You've had diplomats making the same threats. This is not by any stretch of the imagination a rational man even by the old Soviet communist standards when we actually had back channels and there was some rhyme and some reason to what the old Soviet empire did."

Putin is a loony.

...
"You know, I have been saying this forever, Joe. I mean, I hate to say this, but, you know, my last call with the Washington Post was, Putin does not think like we do. we keep thinking he is going to do some cost-benefit analysis, think how sanctions might affect the prices, bear bank and that stock market next week, but that's not who Vladimir Putin is. And he has proven it today on this incredibly tragic day.
...

 

[laughing dog]

You'd lose

Nope, try harder.

Nope what? The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth never happened?

What part of "land that Poland grabbed from Russia in WW1" don't you understand?

What part of that land was grabbed by Russia

Some of us had family members living in Poland when Russia invaded.

Russia did not invade Poland, Russia took back its own land they lost in WW1.

Utter gaslighting bullshit. See  Polish-Soviet War. Trotsky led the Red Army in the invasion, and he was trounced by General Pilsudski at the  Battle of Warsaw (1920).

The history of Poland is sad. Google the partition of Poland. Poland was torn apart by Prussia, Russia and Austria. Poland ever since has been fighting to regain her lands from her oppressors. Including the damned Russians. Russia seems to think any land they can steal is theirs forever and nobody has a right to every lift a hand to the Russian to regain their freedoms.

Do you even realize how ironic this is? Poland was Soviet Union of the middle ages constantly trying to expand and subjugate everyone including smaller Russia.

True. And every other country was constantly trying to expand and subjugate their neighbors during the Middle Ages - including Russia.

In the end remaining monarchies decided that Poland is too big for their own good.
Reminds you of anything? Well except that Russia is not trying to expand. It's actually NATO/EU who is trying to expand and do so at the expense and against Russia.

NATO/EU is not a country. NATO/EU is willing to accept new members if those countries voluntarily apply for membership and meet criteria. NATO/EU does not invade or occupy countries.

It is a falsehood to claim Russia is not trying to expand. Ukraine is a still a sovereign country. Neither government of Ukraine nor the people of Ukraine given up their sovereignty.

The Russian pining for distant past is not a convincing reason for invasion. You can continue to post your uninformed opinions, but your persistence does not change the fact they are crapola.

 

[laughing dog]

Ukraine is enacting genocide against Russians. There won't be an insurgency, we'll be welcomed with flowers.

Well, you place bunch of nazis with artillery at the border of Donetsk/Lugansk and this is what is gonna happen.

If you agree that the Russian military are "nazis", why are you arguing?

 

[Elixir]

Neither NATO nor EU have invaded Ukraine. That would be Russia.

Last time I checked US was a member of NATO, so NATO absolutely did invade Ukraine.

NATO invaded Ukraine? Who told you that? It's a lie.
LMGTFY

Nope. Not one single record of NATO ever invading Ukraine.
You ned to stop trying to advance falsehoods here, @barbos. It reflects very poorly on your Country's "culture".

 

[lpetrich]

Yesterday, Tucker Carlson echoed Putin's talking points on Fox News, arguing the US should not care about Russia invading Ukraine | Business Insider India

What is he saying now?

Amid Russian Military Ops In Ukraine, Finland PM Says Country Ready To Join NATO If It Comes To National Security
Prime Minister Sanna Marin

Earlier, NATO has decided to temporarily close its Kiev office and transfer the staff to Brussels and Lviv, but the alliance’s mission in Ukraine still functions, a NATO representative said.

...
The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia announced last week their decision to move their embassies from the Ukrainian capital to the country’s western city of Lviv over the security situation. Norway has not done so yet, and is closely watching the developments, the newspaper added.

Many countries chose to evacuate their diplomatic staff and families of the diplomats from Ukraine over the deterioration of the security situation. Nationals of many countries including Germany, New Zealand, Belgium, and Finland were also advised to leave Ukraine as soon as possible and desist from non-essential trips there.

 

[Jayjay]

Strategy is to surround Russia with smaller and loud puppet states which harass Russia into regime change and hopefully split into number of smaller states.

How has Ukraine harrassed Russia?

The usual - banning russian language, calling Russia agressor, raping history, calling for sanctions, going after 12 year old girls, in other words creating a picture of Bad Russia.

Typical projection coming from Putin's and his propagandists' talking points. These are all things that Russia is doing to Ukraine, but in the upside down war rhetoric, these somehow become Ukraine's fault.

Same shit Baltic states are paid to do.

Conspiracy theorist bullshit. Baltic states have a realistic picture of Russia because they had to live under its boot for half a century. They don't need to be paid to call out Russian imperialism. Right now, they're pretty much saying "we told you so" to the rest of Europe, and if they weren't NATO members, they'd be in the same situation as Ukraine and Georgia.

 

[lpetrich]

Finland Prepared for Worst, But Sees No Immediate Russian Threat to Its Border, Defense Minister Says - USNI News

"Despite sharing an 830-mile border with Russia, a senior Finnish defense official said he did not see an immediate military threat from Moscow."

That's 1300 kilometers.

Swedish government firm on not joining Nato despite Russian aggression - "Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson told reporters that Sweden plans to stay out of Nato despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

“Sweden has been alliance-free for an extremely long time. It has served Sweden’s interests well,” she added

Ever since the Napoleonic Wars, over 200 years ago. Sweden stayed out of both WWI and WWII.

“We have a security policy designed to withstand times of crisis. We will use the means at our disposal, including cooperation with Nato partners,” Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told a press conference.

“After a crisis, we will see what further action is needed,” the minister said.

Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto noted that “despite early warnings, this morning has been a shock to us all”.

Unlike Sweden, Finland has adopted a so-called “Nato option” provision, which means that “if Finland’s security requires it, Finland has the opportunity to apply for membership”, Prime Minister Sanna Marin said.

Full membership is an ongoing debate which has already been reignited in recent weeks in Finland, and Russia’s action would likely spur a broader debate, Marin noted.

“However, this is a debate that would require broad parliamentary consensus,” Marin said.

Meaning that she doesn't want to rush ahead unless there is broad agreement on doing so.

 

[jonatha]

At this point I think it more productive to return to the topic of the original thread than to engage with trolls trying to justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So...

1) What if anything can the West do to support Ukraine in its defense? I do not think sanctions will force Russia to withdraw (any more than they did in the case of Afghanistan). Can the West in practice provide additional material support (is there a way for that support to reach Ukrainian forces that could use it)?

2) If a resistance develops, is there any point in *not* providing safe havens for it within bordering NATO countries (Poland, Romania, Slovakia) that are willing to host it? If there is a resistance, Putin will claim NATO is providing such safe havens whether or not it is true.

3) Can NATO strengthen its position in the Baltics sufficiently to deter Russian moves to bring those former SSRs within its "sphere of influence"?

 

[SLD]

NATO invaded Ukraine? Seriously?

I must have missed the air strikes, the tanks moving through their borders, the artillery fire. CNN missed the scope when that happened.

what NATO country did they use to launch the strike? Romania, Slovakia or Poland?

Or did they cut a deal with Lukashenko and use Belarus?

 

[barbos]

Conspiracy theorist bullshit. Baltic states have a realistic picture of Russia because they had to live under its boot for half a century.

Bullshit is all yours.
Baltic states were Soviet Union cheap version of abroad.
They were pretty much left to their own devices.

Same is actually true for all national republics, USSR was very accommodating to local culture, customs and history. Central Asia had their own thing. That's part of the reason why Soviet Union dissolved so unexpectedly and quickly and then all republics went to their pre-soviet state, early feodalism for Central Asian republics and western style democracy for Baltic States. And yes, they are paid to trash Russia, that's part of their identity which have not been rid off by soviets.
I have relatives there


Are you going to keep resurrecting all old posts?
Why don't you reply to saakashvili post?

 

[barbos]

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www.gazeta.ru

Russian liberal opposition frustration with Ukrainian "patriots"
Pretty damning picture. The Author is a real journalist who was a supporter of Maidan and used to revolve with these people.

 

[Elixir]

Are you going to keep resurrecting all old posts?

... says the Russian troll-pologist who brings up hundred year old "White Army" tropes to justify Putin's bloodthirsty expansionism.
Why don't you explain the story you made up about NATO invading Ukraine? There's no record of any such invasion on the internet... very strange. Not even in Russian media. Is this your own personal fantasy, or is it shared by all Russian shills?

Soviet Union dissolved so unexpectedly

Oh? That surprised you? That's what happens to over-extended, failed States. It would have taken an astonishing lack of awareness to have remained unaware that it was coming. But that lack of awareness seems to be your principle stock in trade.

 

[steve_bank]

Taiwan is to China what Ukraine is to Russia. China threatens Taiwan with invasion if they declare independence form China. Chia periodcaly fires missile near Taiwan. Politically China can not condemn Russia.

There is plenty of hypocrisy in the west, that is the norm.

Putin vs the west shows what the Cold War was about. The western principle of freedom of speech, action, democratic processes, and self determination. The other side, Russian and Chinese communism, was bent on world domination and e destruction of western democracy.

Whatever moarl failures there are in the west, it all comes down to a black and white difference in political ideology. If you see no difference between Putin and the west than I assume you would be ok with Russia dominating the world.

Consedering Putin's rhetoric against NATO and his demand that former Soviet states leave NATO, I would be concerned with Poland. I would think NATO should mobilize and protect the Polish border.

This is what NATO was built for, Russian deterrence. It is make or break time for the west.

 

[Jayjay]

Support for joining NATO in Finland is up.

So all this is an elaborate scheme to get Finland into NATO?

???? Why in the world would Putin want Finland into Nato? That makes zero sense!

US wants Finland in NATO and that's why they created this crisis.

In context, this might have been just sarcasm. But honestly, all the other batshit crazy theories like "NATO invaded Georgia and Ukraine" or "The US pays Sweden to say nasty things about Russia" are just as stupid so there's no way of knowing if you're joking.

Yes, the support for NATO has gone up as a function of Russian meddling and invasions in other countries. I wasn't a NATO supporter before, but my stance has changed since 2008. It's still not very probable that Finland will apply though. Last autumn the poll numbers were 26% for NATO membership, 40% against, and 33% undecided. Due to recent events though, I expect the pro-NATO position to have jumped up several percentage points. Just last week, two Green party MPs publicly switched their position from opposing NATO membership, to supporting it. And the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Finnish parliament had to resign due to some tweets, to be replaced by this guy:



Even Sweden, a country that hasn't been in a war in over 200 years, is chattering about joining NATO. That's hardly likely to happen, but the fact that it's become a political talking point in these two countries is already noteworthy. If Putin's goal is to expand NATO, he's doing a bang up job.

 

[barbos]

In context, this might have been just sarcasm. But honestly, all the other batshit crazy theories like "NATO invaded Georgia and Ukraine" or "The US pays Sweden to say nasty things about Russia" are just as stupid so there's no way of knowing if you're joking.

I am not joking at all. State Department is pretty transparent and predictable.
You're gonna keep replying with one month delay?
These russian anecdotes about finns must be literally true