How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

NATO offers a deterrent against Russia just waltzing in like it has now.

Most of the ukrainians did not want that.

 

[barbos]

I printed one article:

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine had democracy before "invasion" and they will have it after.
I repeat my question, what does NATO offer them?

Ukraine had democracy. Russian-occupied Ukraine did not. And the rest of it will not be a democracy after this. Putin doesn't like democracy.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine had democracy before "invasion" and they will have it after.
I repeat my question, what does NATO offer them?

Ukraine had democracy. Russian-occupied Ukraine did not. And the rest of it will not be a democracy after this.

We'll see.

 

[Copernicus]

View attachment 37507

If one isn't paying attention, the video almost makes it look that this building was blown up, but it was the one to the right that was hit. This building took a lot of damage, but the facade is still standing. The fireball obscured most of the front of this building when it hit, but it was definitely off to the right. Barbos said that the video he saw had something he spotted that made him feel it was a fake. Then he said the the anomaly had been somehow edited out in subsequent versions of the same video. He never once dropped even a hint of what the problem was that he saw, so it's really impossible to know what he was talking about. And it's a bit silly going on and on about other people having to guess at what was wrong with the video, when he himself couldn't say what he was referring to. Quite rude, actually.

 

[lpetrich]

The Soviet Union was composed of 15 republics, roughly like US or Australian states, Canadian provinces, or German Länder ("lands"). Its core one was Russia, as the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. Roughly in a strip around it was the other 14:

• Europe: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova
• Transcaucasia: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan
• Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan

Some other Black-Sea cities have Greek-origin names. Along with Odessa and Sevastopol, there are Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol.

I'm getting contradictory reports on whether or not Kherson has fallen to the Russians. It's to the NW of Crimea.

Belarus president stands in front of map indicating Moldova invasion plans

Moldova also? That must be because of Transnistria, a breakaway region that Russia supports, much like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

Ahead of Ukraine invasion, Azerbaijan and Russia cement “alliance” | Eurasianet - "To many in Azerbaijan, it appeared that the new agreement was aimed at ensuring their country’s loyalty to Russia during the attack on Ukraine. Officials said the timing was just a coincidence. "

Two days before Russia launched a massive invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin signed a wide-ranging agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, deepening their diplomatic and military cooperation.

The signing of the declaration “brings our relations to the level of an alliance,” Aliyev said after the signing in Moscow.

Just hours before, Putin had announced that Russia was formally recognizing the Ukrainian breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Azerbaijan – which forcefully argues for the principle of territorial integrity when it comes to its own breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh – has remained silent on Moscow’s recognitions.

Just after Aliyev flew home, on the morning of February 24, Russia launched its invasion; official Baku also has yet to comment on that.

English-language version of the document: Declaration on allied interaction between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation - AZERTAC - Azerbaijan State News Agency
The agreement states that both its Russian and its Azerbaijani versions are equally authentic.

Point 4 stipulates that the two countries, “holding the same or similar positions on topical international issues, deepen constructive cooperation.” Point 7 obliges them to “refrain from any actions that, in the opinion of one of the Parties, damage the strategic partnership and allied relations of the two states.”

To many Azerbaijanis, that was too much.

“Did you read it carefully?” Ali Karimli, the head of the opposition Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, wrote on his Facebook page. “One of the parties (of course it will be Russia) can decide by itself that an activity of the other party (Azerbaijan) “damages allied relations.” And then we have to refrain from that activity. With this point alone we have given Russia the authority to supervise all our activities and make us refrain from any activity.”

The agreement also includes several provisions on mutual military aid, including a stipulation that the two sides “may consider the possibility of providing each other with military assistance.”

Also,

As per point 25, Azerbaijan and Russia agree to “refrain from carrying out any economic activity that causes direct or indirect damage to the interests of the other Party.” Azerbaijani officials have promoted the idea that gas from their fields in the Caspian Sea could act as a replacement for Europe should Russia cut off its own energy exports as a consequence of the Ukraine conflict.

Point 40 obliges both countries to “ensure the protection, preservation and development of the historical, cultural and religious heritage, as well as the ethnic, linguistic and cultural identity of national minorities living in the territories of the Parties.” That would appear to be a reference to the many medieval Armenian churches on territory that Azerbaijan retook as a result of the 2020 war with Armenia, and which Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly threatened.

 

[Hermit]

I think it's up to two options: either Putin will annex the East and South in their entirety, and cripple the rest with an unprecedented refugee crisis and economic turmoil, or it will use some of the less strategically important pro-Russian regions as a tool to "democratically" sway the Ukrainian political process. Basically some sort of veto for the Russian puppet regions in Ukrainian foreign policy.

None of the above.

Unfortunately for Russia the Russian owned Ria Novosti prematurely declared victory at 08:00 on Saturday the 26th of February 2022 and made the intentions perfectly clear: A reintegration of all of Ukraine, which along with Belorussia and Russia proper marks the return of Russia to its glorious former state as a world power.

The announcement was quickly deleted. Alas, too late. The Wayback machine had already republished it in full. You can read it here. Or rather, you can feed it into Google Translate and read it there. I did. It's worth doing.

In that announcement Russia is totally upfront about its motivation and what it thinks will happen at the imminent conclusion of the "virtual civil war" in Ukraine. It will see in a new world order, and no other country or power block will be able to do anything about it.

 

[lpetrich]

CPAC opens and immediately devolves into GOP dissent over Ukraine | Salon.com - "Conservatives gather for their annual meeting in Orlando — and already Republicans are fracturing over Russia"

Ahead of Donald Trump's address at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) members of the audience were memorably, if accidentally, given tiny red, white and blue flags to wave. The problem? Except for the word "Trump" printed across the middle of each tiny banner, they were waving an exact replica of the Russian flag.

That aside, they were agreed on one thing, that President Joe Biden was a wimp whose wimpiness supposedly encouraged the invasion. Never mind that Trump was a shameless Putin-lover, and he would likely have said "Go right ahead, Vladdie Boy".

On Saturday night, CPAC will also host former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who recently argued that NATO, rather than Russia, is to blame for the conflict.

Meanwhile, if CPAC's collective response to the invasion has so far been a shrug, a competing right-wing conference being held tomorrow, America First PAC or AFPAC, also in Orlando this weekend, is in open celebration mode.

As Political Research Associate researcher Ben Lorber noted on Twitter, America First founder, the white nationalist Nick Fuentes, cheered on social media, "I am totally rooting for Russia," and "this is the coolest thing to happen since 1/6." Andrew Torba, CEO of the right-wing social media company Gab, which is sponsoring AFPAC, praised Putin as "brilliant," writing, "I hope the Globalist American Empire gets humiliated from all angles," and "Ukraine needs to be liberated and cleansed from the degeneracy of the secular western globalist empire." Another AFPAC speaker, Arizona state Senator Wendy Rogers cheered, "More tanks less trannies" — a close echo of right-wing narratives from the likes of Steve Bannon, that Putin, commendably, "ain't woke," and thus deserves U.S. conservatives' support. (That sort of talk is also happening among conservatives closer to the center than Bannon, as with The American Conservative's Rod Dreher, who wrote this week, "I adamantly oppose risking the lives of boys from Louisiana and Alabama to make the Donbass safe for genderqueers and migrants.")

I never expected to see such gross Russia-loving from right-wingers.

 

[barbos]

I think it's up to two options: either Putin will annex the East and South in their entirety, and cripple the rest with an unprecedented refugee crisis and economic turmoil, or it will use some of the less strategically important pro-Russian regions as a tool to "democratically" sway the Ukrainian political process. Basically some sort of veto for the Russian puppet regions in Ukrainian foreign policy.

None of the above.

Unfortunately for Russia the Russian owned Ria Novosti prematurely declared victory at 08:00 on Saturday the 26th of February 2022 and made the intentions perfectly clear: A reintegration of all of Ukraine, which along with Belorussia and Russia proper marks the return of Russia to its glorious former state as a world power.

The announcement was quickly deleted. Alas, too late. The Wayback machine had already republished it in full. You can read it here. Or rather, you can feed it into Google Translate and read it there. I did. It's worth doing.

In that announcement Russia is totally upfront about its motivation and what it thinks will happen at the imminent conclusion of the "virtual civil war" in Ukraine. It will see in a new world order, and no other country or power block will be able to do anything about it.

Interesting. I understand it can be interpreted that way by some (all) in the west.
To me, as a russian speaker, who is familiar with such "work" it looks like an overexcited "patriot" opinion piece, it does not even remotely looks like prepared article which leaked prematurely. It was put down I suspect by advice from people in power.

Having said that, there are unconfirmed rumors that Yanukovich (that guy !!!) was spotted in Belarus. Bad Idea, bad bad Idea.

 

[Hermit]

I think it's up to two options: either Putin will annex the East and South in their entirety, and cripple the rest with an unprecedented refugee crisis and economic turmoil, or it will use some of the less strategically important pro-Russian regions as a tool to "democratically" sway the Ukrainian political process. Basically some sort of veto for the Russian puppet regions in Ukrainian foreign policy.

None of the above.

Unfortunately for Russia the Russian owned Ria Novosti prematurely declared victory at 08:00 on Saturday the 26th of February 2022 and made the intentions perfectly clear: A reintegration of all of Ukraine, which along with Belorussia and Russia proper marks the return of Russia to its glorious former state as a world power.

The announcement was quickly deleted. Alas, too late. The Wayback machine had already republished it in full. You can read it here. Or rather, you can feed it into Google Translate and read it there. I did. It's worth doing.

In that announcement Russia is totally upfront about its motivation and what it thinks will happen at the imminent conclusion of the "virtual civil war" in Ukraine. It will see in a new world order, and no other country or power block will be able to do anything about it.

Interesting. I understand it can interpret that way by some in the west.
To me, as a russian speaker, who familiar with such work it looks like an overexcited "patriot" opinion piece, it does not even remotely looks like prepared article which leaked prematurely. It was put down I suspect by advice from people in power.

RIA Novosti is Russia's state-owned news agency. It does not publish announcements by mistake. They are vetted by people in power before they are released to the public.

 

[Jayjay]

The war was started unilaterally and without provocation by Putin, and you know it. The unrest that led to Yanukovich running for his life was an internal Ukrainian problem.

No. that's not how shit starts historically in Ukraine.
Maidan was utter garbage in the end when hordes of degenerates with frying pans over their heads were storming government buildings. When government fell and guys with frying pans over their heads forced existing (!!!) parliament members to vote on garbage laws like language and such, predominantly russian regions knew exactly where it was headed (they know these people, they live in the same country with them). So they said cool, you had your revolt in Kiev? fine, we take power here, and go fuck yourself.

Nice theory, except that the timeline doesn't match. Putin made the decision to annex Crimea before the language law repeal was suggested in the parliament.

To be fair temporary president vetoed the language law which parliament passed, he knew it was bad bad bad idea, but it was too late, message was sent and received.

Russians in predominantly russian regions had mini-maidans popping everywhere.

Emphasis on word "mini". Russian military and agents in unmarked uniforms can hardly be compared to popular uprisings. Just today, the Mayor of Kherson said that Russians showed up and told him that they would set up a people's republic there, just like Donetsk and Luhansk. That's pretty much how it happened there originally too.

 

[barbos]

Nice theory, except that the timeline doesn't match. Putin made the decision to annex Crimea before the language law repeal was suggested in the parliament.

That's what I just told you. There was snowball in hell chance that Russia would let Crimea to fall to these people. Language crap was well expected.

Emphasis on word "mini". Russian military and agents in unmarked uniforms can hardly be compared to popular uprisings.

No, it was real, no agents were involved at the time. Yes these republics would not have survived without russian millitary rather limited support. Putin gave them enough to hold positions.
But man, stop trying to convince yourself that Eastern Ukraine was on board with Maidan crap, they were not, they were absolutely not.

 

[barbos]

I think it's up to two options: either Putin will annex the East and South in their entirety, and cripple the rest with an unprecedented refugee crisis and economic turmoil, or it will use some of the less strategically important pro-Russian regions as a tool to "democratically" sway the Ukrainian political process. Basically some sort of veto for the Russian puppet regions in Ukrainian foreign policy.

None of the above.

Unfortunately for Russia the Russian owned Ria Novosti prematurely declared victory at 08:00 on Saturday the 26th of February 2022 and made the intentions perfectly clear: A reintegration of all of Ukraine, which along with Belorussia and Russia proper marks the return of Russia to its glorious former state as a world power.

The announcement was quickly deleted. Alas, too late. The Wayback machine had already republished it in full. You can read it here. Or rather, you can feed it into Google Translate and read it there. I did. It's worth doing.

In that announcement Russia is totally upfront about its motivation and what it thinks will happen at the imminent conclusion of the "virtual civil war" in Ukraine. It will see in a new world order, and no other country or power block will be able to do anything about it.

Interesting. I understand it can interpret that way by some in the west.
To me, as a russian speaker, who familiar with such work it looks like an overexcited "patriot" opinion piece, it does not even remotely looks like prepared article which leaked prematurely. It was put down I suspect by advice from people in power.

RIA Novosti is Russia's state-owned news agency. It does not publish announcements by mistake. They are vetted by people in power before they are released to the public.

Did you read what I just said?
It was not announcement, I does not look like announcement.

 

[blastula]

Kharkiv City Hall Bombing

Yep! That's what I was talking about earlier, I am glad you posted it.
now find 10 things which are not right with that video

Are all these videos fake too?



https://twitter.com/boardtoonsguy/status/1498587455041290242

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498582921296457728

That's the work of the fucking psychopath Putin, the worst nazi in the region.

Barbos, I remember you attacking Ahmaud Arbery in another thread about how horrible he was for talking back to a policeman. You're full of shit.

 

[blastula]

don't know why Anna is being boycotted. However, I'd say this, it's the duty of all people who care about to peace, to boycott any Russian product or person (unless that person wants the war stopped) and any sanction against Russia.

You've been talking to a Russian who supports the war in this thread.

 

[barbos]

Are all these videos fake too?

Sorry, can't see them in Russia.

I don't deny that russian forces (like any other forces) do on occasion produce collateral damage.
But that particular video I was talking about is fake.
Also the video of fighter jets dog fight was fake too.
Video of missile hitting a residential building is real, but missile is ukrainian.

 

[Hermit]

Unfortunately for Russia the Russian owned Ria Novosti prematurely declared victory at 08:00 on Saturday the 26th of February 2022 and made the intentions perfectly clear: A reintegration of all of Ukraine, which along with Belorussia and Russia proper marks the return of Russia to its glorious former state as a world power.

The announcement was quickly deleted. Alas, too late. The Wayback machine had already republished it in full. You can read it here. Or rather, you can feed it into Google Translate and read it there. I did. It's worth doing.

In that announcement Russia is totally upfront about its motivation and what it thinks will happen at the imminent conclusion of the "virtual civil war" in Ukraine. It will see in a new world order, and no other country or power block will be able to do anything about it.

Interesting. I understand it can interpret that way by some in the west.
To me, as a russian speaker, who familiar with such work it looks like an overexcited "patriot" opinion piece, it does not even remotely looks like prepared article which leaked prematurely. It was put down I suspect by advice from people in power.

RIA Novosti is Russia's state-owned news agency. It does not publish announcements by mistake. They are vetted by people in power before they are released to the public.

Did you read what I just said?
It was not announcement, I does not look like announcement.

You can call it whatever you like, barbos. RIA Novosti is still Russia's state-owned news agency. It does not publish announcements by mistake. They are vetted by people in power before they are released to the public.

 

[barbos]

It does not publish announcements by mistake

True, but it was neither announcements nor mistake.

 

[Hermit]

It does not publish announcements by mistake

True, but it was neither announcements nor mistake.

OK. So RIA Novosti published the truth on purpose. There's hope for it yet. If it can do it once, it might become a habit.

 

[barbos]

It does not publish announcements by mistake

True, but it was neither announcements nor mistake.

OK. So RIA Novosti published the truth on purpose. There's hope for it yet. If it can do it once, it might become a habit.

It was an opinion piece by one overexcited "patriot", I am sure they have plenty of these people at RIA Novosti. You are making big deal out of nothing.

Presence of Yanukovich in Belarus, on the other hand, could be potentially big deal.
Or it could his own initiative and nothing else. The guy himself is not very bright.