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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

An amoral dictator like Putin knows and exploits the underlying empathy of the west. We really don't want war in Europe and consideration is given to side effects.

The question is one of those so called moral conundrums. Do we allow Putin free rein in Ukraine because it may cause famine someplace?

IMO if WWII was fought like we do today putting everything under a high power moral microscope, we today would likely be goosestepping and saluting pictures of Hitler.

When the breakout from Normandy stalled, Eisenhower ordered the carpet bombing of a path through the French countryside. Indiscriminate.

In the news the question of Russia using low yield, tactical, nukes if Putin is up against a wall. What do we do then? Does Europe capitulate out of fear? There are unforseen moral consequences to not being aggressive.
My guess? Probably at that point, NATO would change its position on enforcing a no-fly zone. And after that, every missile fired by Russia would be assumed to be nuclear, and the response would match that: an immediate (conventional) counter-strike against whatever base or ship fired it.

China and India, nuclear states themselves, at odds with other nuclear states, might not want to see a world where a country can just nuke another country a little bit and get away with it. Right now they're kind of looking the other way and still open to business with Russia as long as it doesn't harm them via secondary sanctions... but a nuclear gambit by Russia could make them join the Europe and US in shutting Russia out.
 
I really think that there needs to be increased pressure on Russia to stop the war every single day. Some officials are considering using sanctioned Russian assets for Ukranian relief. I'd start this process ASAP:


I'd start with the Russian yachts. My wife would tell you that the biggest con that I ever pulled on her was convincing her that buying a 28 foot sailboat would be an investment! Boats are incredibly expensive to maintain. The yachts need to be sold the highest bidder so that we don't have to pay for their upkeep. Then send the money to Ukraine.
 
For Russians against Ukraine war, Putin has a cruel warning : NPR
In comments on Wednesday, Putin lashed out at Russians who — the Kremlin leader argued — were "mentally" aligned with the West amid the Ukraine crisis. Putin said their true aim is to work with "the collective West" to destroy Russia from within.

"The Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouths," Putin said.

"I am convinced that such a natural and necessary cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to respond to any challenges," he said in remarks that more broadly addressed Russia's efforts to counteract Western sanctions.
He also alluded to the oligarchs who have opposed his war.
Two of the wealthiest Russians have spoken out against the invasion of Ukraine: billionaires Oleg Deripaska and Mikhail Fridman, both of whom keep residences in London.

Indeed, disloyalty — rather than wealth — was very much on Putin's mind in his "cleansing" speech on Wednesday.

"I do not in the least condemn those who have villas in Miami or the French Riviera, who cannot make do without foie gras, oysters or gender freedom, as they call it," said the Russian leader.

"The problem, again, is that many of these people are, essentially, over there in their minds and not here with our people and with Russia."

The speech:
Совещание о мерах социально-экономической поддержки регионов • Президент России - in Russian, of course
Soveshchaniye o merakh sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoy podderzhki regionov • Prezident Rossii
Meeting on measures of social and economic support for the regions • President of Russia

Yup, this confirms it. It's all about Father Putin and fuck Mother Russia.
 
I really think that there needs to be increased pressure on Russia to stop the war every single day. Some officials are considering using sanctioned Russian assets for Ukrainian relief. I'd start this process ASAP
Absolutely. Putin is not getting the message because he will never get the message. He is drunk on power. Does it not remind us all of Hitler?
 
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My wife would tell you that the biggest con that I ever pulled on her was convincing her that buying a 28 foot sailboat would be an investment!
How old were you when you did that?
I got lucky...
First. my father (who died when I was 9) had a 50-something foot ketch that he went treasure hunting in, never found enough to pay for gas (which, since it is a sailboat, was minimal) but always needed help - even the help of toddler offspring - to clean and re-finish its wood.

Second, my mom hooked up with a lawyer when I was 13, and he had a 24' sailboat I was allowed to "live" on for a summer, on the condition that I (and my little brother - useless) took care of it.

That shoulda learnt me, but no.... ten years later found me babysitting a friend's 40-something foot Fellows and Stewart sloop that was all mahogany and teak and was both beautiful and a terrible PITA.

That pretty much cured me. Down to a kayak and a canoe now. My older brother has a flats fishing boat, and even that is too much trouble. You go out and catch redfish or tarpon or whatever for 4-6 hours, then spend another 3-4 hours giving it a freshwater bath, rigging the hoist, checking all the compartments and hauling stuff up and down the dock...

I'm sure your wife now knows about those holes in the ocean.
 
An amoral dictator like Putin knows and exploits the underlying empathy of the west. We really don't want war in Europe and consideration is given to side effects.

The question is one of those so called moral conundrums. Do we allow Putin free rein in Ukraine because it may cause famine someplace?

IMO if WWII was fought like we do today putting everything under a high power moral microscope, we today would likely be goosestepping and saluting pictures of Hitler.

When the breakout from Normandy stalled, Eisenhower ordered the carpet bombing of a path through the French countryside. Indiscriminate.

In the news the question of Russia using low yield, tactical, nukes if Putin is up against a wall. What do we do then? Does Europe capitulate out of fear? There are unforseen moral consequences to not being aggressive.
My guess? Probably at that point, NATO would change its position on enforcing a no-fly zone. And after that, every missile fired by Russia would be assumed to be nuclear, and the response would match that: an immediate (conventional) counter-strike against whatever base or ship fired it.

China and India, nuclear states themselves, at odds with other nuclear states, might not want to see a world where a country can just nuke another country a little bit and get away with it. Right now they're kind of looking the other way and still open to business with Russia as long as it doesn't harm them via secondary sanctions... but a nuclear gambit by Russia could make them join the Europe and US in shutting Russia out.
China and India have been shooting at each other over China's seizing a border area. China ca not overtly condemn Russia while it is doing the same. China is well aware of international images. It cares how it is perceived by the world, unlike Putin.


There is also the long running dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. In the past they would periodically shoot at each oter.

 
^^^ Please don't start another derail the mods will have to clean up. Thanks.
 


Well, it's not The Clash but the sentiment is cool. There's a link under the video on YT to donate.
 
Egad!
Kyiv Independent Twitter said:
Mariupol council: Russian occupiers forcibly move thousands of Mariupol residents to Russia.

The civilians were allegedly taken to camps where Russians checked their phones and documents and then forcibly moved some of them to remote cities in Russia.
What will they call the prison camps that they are using?

Here's a good name: Main Administration of the Camps.

Or in Russian, Гла́вное управле́ние лагере́й, Glávnoje upravlénije lageréj. With acronym G-U-Lag.
 
Ukraine objected against the Mongols.

Ukraine objected against the Polish. When the Polish came to enforce Catholicism, they said, "No, thank you."

They objected against Napoleon, for they were not really interested in becoming citoyens.

They never really appreciated serfdom. This would become an important topic later.

They objected against the Ottomans.

They were not motivated to give a fuck what happened to the Romanovs.

They never liked the Bolsheviks, either

They objected against the Nazis.

They objected against Stalin, and by the way, they noticed how they bore the brunt of the Holodomor.

If I were Ukraine, I would not want to be ruled by the Russians, either.
 
To get a sense of the scale of a potential NATO confkict I looked at disances.

Kiev to:

Berlin and Brussels aprox 1000 miles, NYC to Miami.
Moscow 500 miles aprox.

You can see where Putin gets paranoid over NATO on his Ukrainian border, although the idea of NATO invading Russia is somewhat ridiculous. Why would a prosperous EU want to upset their economies.

Berlin is not all that far from Ukraine. Easily within the range of missiles.

I am thinking of Churchill's While England Slept. Today it is While The EU Slept. They all new the danger Russia presents and the risk of their energy dependence on a hostile country. They new Russia has been trying to destabilize EU politics for decades.

I expect Poland began loosing a lot of sleep when Russia started massing troops.
 
Russia sealed their fate regarding Ukraine joining with NATO when they invaded Crimea. If they had not done that, then they would have had more diplomatic leverage, and they could have talked Ukraine around to seeing the alliance as an antediluvian relic of the Iron Curtain.

Instead, Russia effectively rebuilt the Iron Curtain around themselves, and it is only worse now than it was.

Of course, we are talking about the same government that once subjected the people of Ukraine to corvée labor.
 
To get a sense of the scale of a potential NATO confkict I looked at disances.

Kiev to:

Berlin and Brussels aprox 1000 miles, NYC to Miami.
Moscow 500 miles aprox.

You can see where Putin gets paranoid over NATO on his Ukrainian border, although the idea of NATO invading Russia is somewhat ridiculous. Why would a prosperous EU want to upset their economies.

Berlin is not all that far from Ukraine. Easily within the range of missiles.

I am thinking of Churchill's While England Slept. Today it is While The EU Slept. They all new the danger Russia presents and the risk of their energy dependence on a hostile country. They new Russia has been trying to destabilize EU politics for decades.

I expect Poland began loosing a lot of sleep when Russia started massing troops.
Well, how do you feel the countries that directly share a border feel about Russia now? They are watching Russia attack a smaller neighbor for no reason. They are watching Russia systematically destroy a country. Russia has created an incredible number of enemies that will make its future adventures much much more difficult. Russia has created a couple generations of people that will hate it. That is Putin's doing, not NATO.
 
To get a sense of the scale of a potential NATO confkict I looked at disances.

Kiev to:

Berlin and Brussels aprox 1000 miles, NYC to Miami.
Moscow 500 miles aprox.

You can see where Putin gets paranoid over NATO on his Ukrainian border, although the idea of NATO invading Russia is somewhat ridiculous. Why would a prosperous EU want to upset their economies.

Berlin is not all that far from Ukraine. Easily within the range of missiles.

I am thinking of Churchill's While England Slept. Today it is While The EU Slept. They all new the danger Russia presents and the risk of their energy dependence on a hostile country. They new Russia has been trying to destabilize EU politics for decades.

I expect Poland began loosing a lot of sleep when Russia started massing troops.
Well, how do you feel the countries that directly share a border feel about Russia now? They are watching Russia attack a smaller neighbor for no reason. They are watching Russia systematically destroy a country. Russia has created an incredible number of enemies that will make its future adventures much much more difficult. Russia has created a couple generations of people that will hate it. That is Putin's doing, not NATO.
Stop saying Russia, start saying Putin. I don't think "Russia" is paranoid for a moment. Putin and the gangster state of Putinstan is certainly paranoid about the spread of democracy and how it will upset the ability to rule by terror and to steal by force. If I were a mob boss that ruled by terror I would want the law to be as far from my doorstep as I could keep it.

Putin the Pig's alleged fear of NATO for the good of "Russia" must certainly be his greatest propaganda victory. The fact that so many in the west swallow and parrot this crap says a lot about how credulous and gullible we are.
 
Oh, and did everyone know that Peter III's supposed abolition of slavery was a scam? He just renamed them "serfs," and he proceeded to expand it. Oh, excuse me, it was no longer legal for landowners to outright murder their serfs, so serfdom was really a warm and wholesome institution.

He was the scum that first started the military escalation against the Circassians. The Circassians were saying, "We don't like Islam, either, but we will take it over serfdom if we are being asked to choose, thank you." Murad was offering the Circassians what they really wanted, which was a semblance of independence.

To the people we call the Ukrainians, Peter III was really the Richard Cranium that turned around and, with a great big smile, attempted to stab Ivan Mazepa in the back after Ivan Mazepa's loyal service to his government. This was entirely because Ivan Mazepa's leadership was adequately competent that the Cossack Hetmantate had a non-zero chance of being able to stand on its own. That was the real reason why Ivan Mazepa threw his lot in with Charles XII of Sweden, but it made the bastards in Moscow so mad that were not allowed to complete their treachery against him that the Russian Orthodox Church still has not revoked their anathema against him, all the more reason to like Ivan Mazepa.

Of course, that was not enough for the Russians. Their foul treatment of the Cossacks only got worse under Sophie, excuse me, Catherine "the Great" II. What hum. In general, I prefer to give female rulers the benefit of the doubt, but it is very hard to have such forbearance from the standpoint of someone that lived in what is now Ukraine at the time. She destroyed the Hetmantate, and she attempted to enforce serfdom upon the Cossacks using that tried and true system of setting them at odds with their own upper-class: she was happy to dispense titles of nobility to a handful of serving officers as long as they agreed that their fellow Cossacks were no longer human beings but, instead, lowly serfs that deserved to be violently bludgeoned anytime they would not work like donkeys, regardless of whether or not they were starving. That is what the system of serfdom is really about, after all. It's not the product of their labors, but it is about setting people against each other so as to lead a nation of people to hate each other more than their true oppressor.

Of course, Sophie's, excuse me, Catherine "the Great" II's, successors continued their escalations against the Circassians, and I suppose that their entire idea of how this was going to work was going to be the Circassians saying, "Oh, thank you for bullying us, you lovely, lovely tyrants! Let us come and lick your boots, and we will be your good, little serfs from now on!" What actually happened was that the Circassians were defecting over to the Ottomans in droves. It never actually occurred to any of the Tsars that they could have kept the Circassians as their friends by the simple system of TREATING THEM LIKE HUMAN BEINGS.

By the way, a certain unprintably two-faced piece of scum, Paul I, got his just desserts from the self-same nobility that his regime had raised to power in order to subjugate and batter their people, and that only shows what folly it is to trust a hyena for any reason whatsoever.

However, the conflict witht he Circassians did not really have to turn into the genocide until after the 1810's. I will tell you what put the Tsars on course to become a genocidal monster doomed for a reckoning: it was a certain shifty Byzantine named Alexander I. He gets all kinds of credit for helping defeat Bonaparte, but nobody talks about how he did it (maybe because the Russians are ashamed of it?). No, I am not talking about how he razed Moscow, although, which shows exactly how much regard the Russians really have for architecture that does not belong to their nobility, although that was bad enough. Instead, I am talking about how he was really glad to call himself a Jacobin and work for Napoleon as long as it looked like Napoleon Bonaparte was certain to win. Alexander I was not really siding with Bonaparte out of principle, but he was betting on which side he expected to be the winner. He did not turn against Bonaparte until he recognized that Bonaparte's empire was built on a house-of-cards and lies upon lies. No, Alexander did not do the dirty work of exterminating the Circassians, but he made the course toward that genocide irreversible. And so he doomed his dynasty to extinction.

Anybody in the region with any real sense hated the Tsars, all of them, and when the Black Flag Army marched against them, the Cossacks did not really care very much at all about communism. They only wanted to make sure that not even one Romanov was left alive. Fuck the Romanovs, and I mean fuck all of the Romanovs.

However, the USSR was no more really "communist" than Peter was a "great emancipator" or that shifty Byzantine Alexander was a Jacobin. The system of serfdom did its work too well, and no matter what the government in Moscow calls itself for the sake of convenience, the vipers that control it are descended from unprincipled trash that were willing to help beat the spirit out of their own people for a plot of land and a title, and changing their pretensions will not change what they are. Fuck them, and may Moscow be razed to the ground and, this thime, buried. No good can come of that city. The only possible redemption for them is to acknowledge they were built upon treachery and lies and commit to change.

All that "Cossack" means is a person that wants to live free, and Frith knows nobody has labored more diligently against longer odds for the right to be free. Glory to Ukraine.
 
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56 people were killed when Russian forces opened fire at a nursing home in Kreminna, a town in Luhansk Oblast, on March 11, according to Serhiy Hayday, local governor. Russians have moved 15 survivors to a facility on the occupied territory. A week later, it’s still impossible to reach the site of the attack, he added.
 
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