Yet another war, this time with Iran

Jimmy Higgins said:

SLD said:

IAE, China is the key player. They’re not exactly an ally of Iran, but they do rely on their oil. Stop their oil, and you risk a serious escalation.

Today Xi issued a serious rebuke to Trump calling the blockade dangerous and irresponsible, and that the world must not revert to the law of the jungle.

TACO let a Chinese vessel through.

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This is the problem with creating situations you can't possibly defend. China has a ship, you going to stop it, board it, destroy it? While Trump has shown little in the way of diplomatic skill, and his Cabinet is a collection of castrated baboons, the US didn't do anything to the Chinese ship, effectively making the blockade a "blockade". This makes Trump and the US look even weaker.

Trying to save face, and they keep losing it!

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That Chinese ship went to the UAE, not Iran so major confrontation pending.

Politesse said:

laughing dog said:

Politesse said:

laughing dog said:

The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?

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Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.

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What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

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That isn't the goal. The goal is to try and goad them into firing on one of our ships

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A Gulfstraight of Hortonkin incident?

Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Trump already started this violent clownery in order to take attention off of the Epstein mess, so him taking it another step wouldn't be at all surprising. There is no doubt that many Americans would immediately rally to the baboon's side, but the question is how many. Even his former most staunch supporters are unhappy with this fuckery so maybe he wouldn't get the result he's hoping for.

SLD said:

IAE, China is the key player. They’re not exactly an ally of Iran, but they do rely on their oil. Stop their oil, and you risk a serious escalation.

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Maybe they should stop supplying the Regime with weapons then. Because that fuels escalation.

Today Xi issued a serious rebuke to Trump calling the blockade dangerous and irresponsible, and that the world must not revert to the law of the jungle.

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Xi is like certain posters here. Perfectly fine with Iran blocking traffic through the Strait, but somehow US returning the favor would be "dangerous and irresponsible".

TACO let a Chinese vessel through.

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I think that one left from UAE, not Iran.
But yes, TACO is not as resolute as this situation demands.

robnisch said:

Thank You Kermit Roosevelt!!!

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More like: thank you Jimmy Carter, Andrew Young and the French, who harbored Khomeini and allowed him to plan his usurpation of power.

Derec said:

Xi is like certain posters here. Perfectly fine with Iran blocking traffic through the Strait, but somehow US returning the favor would be "dangerous and irresponsible".

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Unless you provide names and actual evidence, that sounds more like Trump than reality.

Dan Johnson (via RVonse) said:

Overnight, peace talks between the US and Iran have broken down. Despite misinformation spread on social media, Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim reports talks collapsed due to "excessive" US demands relating to the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program.

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LMAO, taking Iranian news agencies seriously. It is the Regime that has excessive demands: they want control over the Strait and to keep on enriching, among other outlandish demands.

back to RVonse said:

From the article:
This shift shows Iran's strategy to block the Strait of Hormuz is becoming domestically damaging. Even when Iran reopens the Strait, its former clients will likely have found new partnerships with a lower risk of disruption. Its current actions have a limited window of maximum effectiveness, after which their effectiveness gradually decreases each day as demand to use the Strait diminishes.

World markets run on supply and demand. If the supply is disrupted in one region, demand leads buyers to seek the product elsewhere. Reliability is a premium in the oil market, even if shipping costs increase as a result (costs would increase regardless if Iran places a toll).

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Yes. In a supply crunch, both supply and demand will adjust.

Jimmy Higgins said:

No, they aren't. Sri lanka has been having an issue with supply for weeks now. Korea is reducing driving due to supply issues.There isn't a magical location where 20% of oil is elsewhere.

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That's how demand adjusts. By lowering consumption.

laughing dog said:

What leverage do you think this creates ? If this inconveniences China by a sufficient margin, they can stem the access to rare earth minerals.

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Which is why it was foolish to leave most of this segment to China. There are large rare earth deposits outside of China, and processing facilities can also be built elsewhere.

laughing dog said:

Derec said:

Xi is like certain posters here. Perfectly fine with Iran blocking traffic through the Strait, but somehow US returning the favor would be "dangerous and irresponsible".

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Unless you provide names and actual evidence, that sounds more like Trump than reality.

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Here you go. Politesse never disappoints with hot takes:

Politesse said:

Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.

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He thinks that Strait of Hormuz are "Iranian waters", so it's for them to block traffic and charge protection money. But if US blockades Iranian ports, Politesse calls that "piracy".

The Far Left has always had a soft spot for the Iranian Theocracy. Probably because they both hate Israel and the West.

Derec said:

laughing dog said:

Derec said:

Xi is like certain posters here. Perfectly fine with Iran blocking traffic through the Strait, but somehow US returning the favor would be "dangerous and irresponsible".

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Unless you provide names and actual evidence, that sounds more like Trump than reality.

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Here you go. Politesse never disappoints on hot takes:

Politesse said:

Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.

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He thinks that Strait of Hormuz are "Iranian waters", so it's for them to block traffic and charge protection money. But if US blockades Iranian ports, Politesse calls that "piracy".

The Far Left has always had a soft spot for the Iranian Theocracy.

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You said posters which is plural.

Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz is Iranian and Omanian waters. While the UN International Convention on the Law of the Seas indicates ships of transit rights, Iran claims since it never ratified it, they can charge tolls. The USA has no such claim.

I don’t know if Iran is correct. Regardless, Politesse’s argument suggests there is a legal basis but does not suggest approval.

Derec said:

He thinks that Strait of Hormuz are "Iranian waters", so it's for them to block traffic and charge protection money. But if US blockades Iranian ports, Politesse calls that "piracy".

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Just because I disapprove of what we're doing, doesn't mean that I approve of Iran's actions. As indeed I do not.

So with the prospect for peace in this stupid war Fuck face Von clownstick started, oil prices have come “down” to the mid 90’s range. Down though is relative since they’re still $30/bbl above what they had been prior to this shitfest.

But no oil is leaving the gulf. So the prices shouldn’t come down. Furthermore there’s a blockade on Iranian oil. Which China relies. So why exactly have oil prices fallen? That’s the bad news. It has nothing to do with oil freely flowing. It has to do with the shutting down of demand across the globe.


Demand shut down means that the lack of fuel is shutting down everything from production to travel across the globe. People aren’t buying air travel, factories aren’t producing, people aren’t buying. Das ist nicht gut.

The U.S. might be insulated from the worst of such effects since we produce so much oil, but these things have a way of biting us in the ass eventually. A global recession will hurt America. What a bunch of fucking morons are running this shitshow.

Derec said:

Jimmy Higgins said:

No, they aren't. Sri lanka has been having an issue with supply for weeks now. Korea is reducing driving due to supply issues.There isn't a magical location where 20% of oil is elsewhere.

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That's how demand adjusts. By lowering consumption.

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Thanks for the Economics brief. Yes, Sri Lanka has been dealing with these problems for weeks. Korea is starting to have to adjust. This is going to continue to expand and cause broader problems.

And China... well, they aren't going to let the US block their oil. The US is breaking international law at the moment. And a "But Iran started it" won't work for China. Trump is playing or pretending to play with fire with China.

We haven't begun to see the effects on the world economy. Trump has his people believing this will all wrap up in "weeks", and he will feel the jaws of that declaration biting him on his fat ass all the way to November.

SLD said:

Fuck face Von clownstick

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Hey! You can't call him that.

ideologyhunter said:

We haven't begun to see the effects on the world economy. Trump has his people believing this will all wrap up in "weeks", and he will feel the jaws of that declaration biting him on his fat ass all the way to November.

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Like COVID?
Maybe they should start drinking bleach.

ideologyhunter said:

We haven't begun to see the effects on the world economy. Trump has his people believing this will all wrap up in "weeks", and he will feel the jaws of that declaration biting him on his fat ass all the way to November.

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Nah, Trump will soon be sending out checks to everybody for their share of all the toll revenue.

blastula said:

ideologyhunter said:

We haven't begun to see the effects on the world economy. Trump has his people believing this will all wrap up in "weeks", and he will feel the jaws of that declaration biting him on his fat ass all the way to November.

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Nah, Trump will soon be sending out checks to everybody for their share of all the toll revenue.

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That's right, Iran is going to pay for the more expensive oil.