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2020 Election Predictions

So far of the about 95 million who have voted are 64% democratic and 36% republican. With about 8 million votes still before E day, Biden could already have 67 million votes. If you presume worst case, 60 million voters - a total of about 160 million votes overall, a record for sure - on election day splitting 70% yo 30% for Trump. That's about bout 42 million for Trump and 18 million for Biden, Biden wins. Biden would have about 85 million votes while Trump would have no more than 77 million votes. Well over the 6 million plurality some say is needed to prevent an electoral college loss. Game over.

Actually, I suspect election day will be more like 50 50 given a disparity in absentee ballots leaning to democrats and Joe will win in a landslide even if 70 million votes are cast on election day.
 
The country will be thrown into a severe frenzy by anything other than a Biden landslide(*). (A Biden landslide will lead to mild frenzy — about what we have now.)

My prediction? The election will be close; close enough that typical voter suppression in a key state like Pennsylvania may give Trump the election. The one certainty is that there will be huge varieties of cheating by White Supremacists, traitors, Republicans, and other criminals. Expect to hear of mail-in ballots being ripped open and discarded if they are Biden votes. (What are mail-in envelopes like? Is it easy to reseal ballots?)

* - Of course the standard for "landslide" is not what it once was. Goldwater won only six states in 1964. McGovern (1972) and Mondale (1984) won only one state each. Dukakis won only ten states (plus DC) in 1988. But in post #58 above, dannyk shows us what a Biden landslide would look like, and Trump still wins 20 states on that map.
 
I'm sticking with my original prediction in post #4. I see no reason there won't be an extension of 2018's turnout. Historians and resident addicts will look toward millennials, fear of a '16 repeat, Covid and it's hero Anthony (this is what you look like at 79 if you take care of yourself) Fauci. But mostly the millennials. May they seize control of our politics and never give it back. We have fucked their world up, maybe irreparably. Let Trump be our swan song.

Tuesday I will do what I did on that first Tuesday in November four years ago. Set media silence. Spend yet another evening ensuring I look nothing like Anthony Fauci at 79 should I live so long. Wake for my 0230 constitutional and see what's what.
 
What the 2020 Forecasts Predict 2 Days Before the Election - YouTube - mentions several election-prediction sites. I tried to get all of them, and I think I succeeded.

As of this writing,
  • PluralVote - B 65.49% T 34.04%
  • DecisionDeskHQ - B 87.4% T 11.9% - Senate D 83.9% tie 9.4% R 6.7% (D 52 R 48) - House D 98.4% R 1.6% (D 237 R 198)
  • OurProgress - B 89.2% T 10.8% - Senate D 73.2% R 26.8% (D 54 R 46)
  • 538 - B 90% T 10% - Senate D 76% R 24% (D 51.6 R 48.4) - House D 97% R 3% (D 239.8 R 195.2)
  • JHK - B 90.3% T 9.7% - Senate D 76.7% R 26.3% (D 51.8 R 48.2)
  • Economist - B 95% T 5% - Senate D 81% R 19% (D 52.4 R 47.6) - House D >99% R <1% (D 244 R 191)
  • ElectoralPolls - B 95.8% T 4.2%
  • LeanTossup - B 96.4% tie 0.5% T 3% - Senate D 90.4% R 9.4% (D 54 R 46) - House D 98.6% R 1.4% (D 252.3 R 182.7)
  • RaceToTheWH - B 98.4% T 1.6% - Senate D 70.7% tie 10.60% R 18.7% (D 52.7 R 47.3)
 
Swammerdami said:
The country will be thrown into a severe frenzy by anything other than a Biden landslide(*). (A Biden landslide will lead to mild frenzy — about what we have now.)
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If Trump won straight up, it'd be depressing as all hell, and I'd need to look into leaving, but a Trump victory via courts could very well become very very sketchy. The Red Hats think they are invincible. They keep forgetting they aren't the only ones with guns.

Trump hasn't sued to stop counting votes in Florida, so I have no idea if that means they know they are winning or they are waiting. We know the GOP have no shame, so tossing votes after we know who they are for won't stop them.

My prediction? The election will be close; close enough that typical voter suppression in a key state like Pennsylvania may give Trump the election. The one certainty is that there will be huge varieties of cheating by White Supremacists, traitors, Republicans, and other criminals. Expect to hear of mail-in ballots being ripped open and discarded if they are Biden votes. (What are mail-in envelopes like? Is it easy to reseal ballots?)
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Ballots in PA must have 'naked envelopes'. So a ballot in an envelope in an envelope.

Trump is reportedly wanting to celebrate on Election Night, but the truth is, Philadelphia is counting mail-ins starting at 7 AM. So, PA might not have the reddish purple color he needs to declare it prematurely.
 
lpetrich said:
What the 2020 Forecasts Predict 2 Days Before the Election - YouTube - mentions several election-prediction sites. I tried to get all of them, and I think I succeeded.

As of this writing,
  • PluralVote - B 65.49% T 34.04%
  • DecisionDeskHQ - B 87.4% T 11.9% - Senate D 83.9% tie 9.4% R 6.7% (D 52 R 48) - House D 98.4% R 1.6% (D 237 R 198)
  • OurProgress - B 89.2% T 10.8% - Senate D 73.2% R 26.8% (D 54 R 46)
  • 538 - B 90% T 10% - Senate D 76% R 24% (D 51.6 R 48.4) - House D 97% R 3% (D 239.8 R 195.2)
  • JHK - B 90.3% T 9.7% - Senate D 76.7% R 26.3% (D 51.8 R 48.2)
  • Economist - B 95% T 5% - Senate D 81% R 19% (D 52.4 R 47.6) - House D >99% R <1% (D 244 R 191)
  • ElectoralPolls - B 95.8% T 4.2%
  • LeanTossup - B 96.4% tie 0.5% T 3% - Senate D 90.4% R 9.4% (D 54 R 46) - House D 98.6% R 1.4% (D 252.3 R 182.7)
  • RaceToTheWH - B 98.4% T 1.6% - Senate D 70.7% tie 10.60% R 18.7% (D 52.7 R 47.3)
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Trafalgar has a few new polls showing Trump winning MI, NC, FL... but they didn't include the data like they did for WI which opened up their methodology to severe scrutiny.

With the GOP suing in Texas, now headed to Federal Court as failing to get the blessing of the all GOP TX Supreme Court, we've got to wonder just how scared they actually are of the turnout in Texas. Those EVs are just one thing they are trying to protect with their actions in Harris County.
 
TV and credit cards said:
I'm sticking with my original prediction in post #4. I see no reason there won't be an extension of 2018's turnout. Historians and resident addicts will look toward millennials, fear of a '16 repeat, Covid and it's hero Anthony (this is what you look like at 79 if you take care of yourself) Fauci. But mostly the millennials. May they seize control of our politics and never give it back. We have fucked their world up, maybe irreparably. Let Trump be our swan song.
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AMEN!

Even those of us who survived Recession #1 with a livelihood and a home of some kind at the end of it, still inherited a crapsack world compared to what our parents had, with the only real perks being the very advances in civil rights that the Trump crowd is trying to destroy and counter. Now our children are facing an even grimmer future -- and we are angry. May that rage for injustice not die, or accept even supposed compromises, on the other side of this election.
 
Elixir said:
TV and credit cards said:
Blue like a beautiful summer's day in Cleveland.

I don't get this:

Both sides are bracing for a close race and a giant wave of Republicans to vote in person on Nov. 3.
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Is there a history of this?
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I hope that due to Republicans' voter suppression efforts, they end up in long long lines. Half of them say screw it and go home, another quarter of them stick it out until midnight, then get sent home without voting.
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Republican voter suppression tactics are very carefully targeted to African American voting precincts. The demographics are used to ensure that long lines will form in their regions and not in predominantly white areas. Say thank you to the Supreme Court for gutting the Voting Rights Act.
 
On the night of Nov 3rd, one of 3 things will happen:
1. The current shitstain wins legitimately, but by the thinnest of margins. This would more or less spell the end of democracy in the US. There will be widespread unrest, possible civil war.

2. Biden wins by a slim margin. There will be lots of violence perpetrated by right wing bigots. There will be continuous tumult in the courts probably right up to Jan 21. Violence will continue even after that. May or may not lead to civil war.

3. Biden wins overwhelmingly. There will be lots of violence perpetrated by right wing bigots. There will be continuous tumult in the courts probably right up to Jan 21. Violence will continue even after that. The shitstain occupant in the whitehouse will do as much damage as he can, probably even to the point of vandalizing the white house itself, but this is literally the best outcome that we can hope for.

Fuck the GOP and their supporters for making it this bad.
 
Exactly, and when they gutted it, they said expressly that it was because the need to monitor states for racist policies was over. With the court we have now, there is no amount of contrary evidence that will persuade them otherwise. We are so fucked. A "democracy" that is run by the "will of the people" can be hijacked, and we've been jacked. A Constitutional amendment enshrining voter's rights would be ideal, but these things take forever to go through, and the process would no doubt overlap another GOP golden age, in which they would gleefully stop it in its tracks.

(This in response to post #68.)
 
Worldtraveller said:
On the night of Nov 3rd, one of 3 things will happen:
1. The current shitstain wins legitimately, but by the thinnest of margins. This would more or less spell the end of democracy in the US. There will be widespread unrest, possible civil war.
Click to expand...
There should be no fighting if Trump wins legitimately. If he steals it in the courts by throwing out votes, that'd be different. With all of the antagonizing Trump has done, I worry about Trump Red Hat mobs descending on polling places remaining open after hours as they typically do on Election Night due to demand.

2. Biden wins by a slim margin. There will be lots of violence perpetrated by right wing bigots. There will be continuous tumult in the courts probably right up to Jan 21. Violence will continue even after that. May or may not lead to civil war.

3. Biden wins overwhelmingly. There will be lots of violence perpetrated by right wing bigots. There will be continuous tumult in the courts probably right up to Jan 21. Violence will continue even after that. The shitstain occupant in the whitehouse will do as much damage as he can, probably even to the point of vandalizing the white house itself, but this is literally the best outcome that we can hope for.

Fuck the GOP and their supporters for making it this bad.
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I think Biden has the popular vote in the bag already. With Texas apparently tightened up, Trump is losing a good deal of votes to offset New York and California with. Right now, it seems Trump's biggest wins will be in states without many people. Where as Biden is will tear Trump a new one in New York and California, and close to a new one in Illinois.

Trump just being Trump by nature adds uncertainty to the election. Trump being the asshole he is, is instigating worse and worse actions by his supporters. We have no idea what these people will be up to tomorrow. Maybe, hopefully, nothing. But he commanded them to go to the polls to watch out for evil Democrats.
 
Who knows, maybe Georgia is purple this year. Georgia is now at the 2016 level of turnout of about 4 million votes. Could the right-wing be screwed with so much urban early voting, which could greatly reduce lines?
 
Donald Trump’s Inner Circle Braces for 2020 Campaign Disaster
With just a few days left before Election Night and the president trailing in numerous state and national polls, Donald Trump’s inner circle is increasingly whispering the same thought: Our guy blew it.

A forecast of a Biden White House is not one they welcome. But it’s one many of them have come to finally accept after a year of coronavirus deaths, economic devastation, and racial and civil unrest have throttled an administration run by a man they believe has failed to rise to the occasion, even on just a purely messaging front.

...
Were Moore alone in his skepticism, it could be written off as the superstitious, cup-half-empty musings of an adviser who abjectly is terrified of a Biden presidency. But he’s not alone. Out of the 16 knowledgeable and well-positioned sources across Trumpworld—campaign aides, Republican donors, senior administration officials, and close associates of the president and his family—whom The Daily Beast interviewed for this story in the week leading up to Election Day 2020, only five gave Trump comfortable odds at winning. Doug Deason, a high-dollar Trump donor from Dallas, pegged Trump’s odds at “75 percent or better,” for instance.

Six others were confident, to varying degrees, that President Trump would be relegated to one-termer status. The remaining five gave him roughly 50/50 odds. Of those five, two—a White House official and a friend of the president’s—started sounding increasingly pessimistic as the conversation went on.
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Trump might pull off a squeaker of an electoral-college victory as he had done in 2016, but that is rather improbable.
 
Political consultant predicts a blowout: ‘We’re going to know the winner of this election by 10pm tomorrow night’

Former top adviser to former President Bill Clinton, James Carville, anticipates that Election Night will be a short night for everyone.

Speaking to MSNBC on Monday with former campaign manager for President Barack Obama David Plouffe, Carville said that he expects the election to be called by 10 p.m. that night.

"What people are doing is unnecessarily scaring people and making them unnecessarily nervous," said Carville. "That event he had — David Plouffe is exactly right, that event in North Carolina, a state if he loses, I don't want to wait on Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, he's going to lose. That event was literally insane. You're in eastern North Carolina, a state that you've got to win and you're talking about some pollster at Fox News? It is literally insane that anybody — any politician would use that as a closing argument. I am not the least bit concerned about the outcome tomorrow night, and I'm not the least bit concerned that we're going to have to wait weeks or months to find out what the result is. We'll know and we'll know early."
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Let's hope so.
 
If Carville is right...

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfFrDS2cCKA[/YOUTUBE]
 
ZiprHead said:
Political consultant predicts a blowout: ‘We’re going to know the winner of this election by 10pm tomorrow night’

Former top adviser to former President Bill Clinton, James Carville, anticipates that Election Night will be a short night for everyone.

Speaking to MSNBC on Monday with former campaign manager for President Barack Obama David Plouffe, Carville said that he expects the election to be called by 10 p.m. that night.

"What people are doing is unnecessarily scaring people and making them unnecessarily nervous," said Carville. "That event he had — David Plouffe is exactly right, that event in North Carolina, a state if he loses, I don't want to wait on Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, he's going to lose. That event was literally insane. You're in eastern North Carolina, a state that you've got to win and you're talking about some pollster at Fox News? It is literally insane that anybody — any politician would use that as a closing argument. I am not the least bit concerned about the outcome tomorrow night, and I'm not the least bit concerned that we're going to have to wait weeks or months to find out what the result is. We'll know and we'll know early."
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Let's hope so.
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If Carville is referring to scaring people with notions of Trump possibly winning, I do not see that as unnecessary. Be afraid. Let no decent person think this is in the bag and they do not need to go out and vote. Not one decent person.
I hope I still have JC's number. I've got to give him a call and straighten him out on this point.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
If he steals it in the courts by throwing out votes, that'd be different.
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wait, why would that be different?
that literally happened 20 years ago and other than a bit of hurrumphing which amounted to nothing, nobody gave a shit.

I think Biden has the popular vote in the bag already.
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every democrat has won the popular vote for the last 40 years (excepting john kerry, which let's be honest was a fucking joke so that barely even counts), so yeah that can be safely assumed.
 
Nevada, Georgia, Arizona are all above the 2016 vote tallies. Don't get too excited though, higher turnout in '04 happened too. And I still don't know if Kerry lost Ohio. The returns from Cuyahoga County late never felt right. And the recount in Ohio was a joke!
prideandfall said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
If he steals it in the courts by throwing out votes, that'd be different.
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wait, why would that be different?
that literally happened 20 years ago and other than a bit of hurrumphing which amounted to nothing, nobody gave a shit.
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W worked to stop recounting the vote, they didn't go to court like Trump already has to throw out 127,000 votes in Harris County, Texas. There was a first official count in Florida. Trump is trying to fuck things up before we even start counting! And yes, W's taking of the election was met with near indifference, but the US has changed a lot since then.

To think, where our nation would be if not for a poorly designed Butterfly Ballot, created by a Democrat.

I think Biden has the popular vote in the bag already.
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every democrat has won the popular vote for the last 40 years (excepting john kerry, which let's be honest was a fucking joke so that barely even counts), so yeah that can be safely assumed.
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I think it'll be more than Clinton had. Maybe 3.5 to 4 million.
 
Explainer: 'Dueling electors' pose risk of U.S. vote deadlock | Reuters
It is theoretically possible for the governor and legislature, each representing a different political party, to submit two different election results, leading to so-called “dueling slates of electors.”

...
If early returns show a Trump lead, experts say the president could press Republican-controlled legislatures to appoint electors favorable to him, claiming the initial vote count reflects the true outcome.

Governors in those same states could end up backing a separate slate of electors pledged to Biden if the final count showed the Democratic candidate had won.

Both sets of electors would meet and vote on Dec. 14 and the competing results would be sent to Congress.
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What happens next is up to Congress. The House is almost certain to be in Democratic hands next year, while the Senate is up for grabs. A Democratic Senate might accept the Democratic electors' votes, while a Republican Senate might accept the Republican ones. But in the latter case, the House might butt in.

There was a similar case of dueling electors back in 1876, and that was resolved by a deal that was made shortly before Inauguration Day.
 
Nixon did this once... in the good way. He oversaw the Democrat slate of electors go forth from Hawaii even though a Republican slate existed because the original count indicated Nixon won. But a subsequent recount showed that Kennedy won Hawaii.

I have a hard time thinking states would slate electors without a certified vote count.
 
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