2022 Midterm Elections - Results and Post Mortem

[Derec]

The problem is you make your statements as if they are accepted facts and note solely your opinion.

I don't. Words like "we need" and "should" usually prefix statements of opinion. Statements of opinion are what we usually do on this forum.
However, it is "accepted fact" that Mondaire Jones lives in NY-16 (and not in NY-10 nor NY-17) and that Jamaal Bowman has advocating for defunding of police.

 

[lpetrich]

Nonreligious voters gave Democrats crucial wins. Will people notice? - by Hemant Mehta - "Secular Americans backed Democrats and abortion rights “by staggering percentages” in the midterms"

Noting Non-religious voters wield clout, tilt heavily Democratic | AP News
Pennsylvania chapter of Secular Democrats of America:

The group, mostly consisting of atheists and agnostics, mobilizes to knock on doors and make phone calls on behalf of Democratic candidates “who are pro-science, pro-democracy, whether or not they are actually self-identified secular people,” he said. “We are trying to keep church and state separate. That encompasses LGBTQIA+, COVID science, bodily autonomy and reproductive rights.”

...
Toters with no religious affiliation supported Democratic candidates and abortion rights by staggering percentages in the 2022 midterm elections.

And they’re voting in large numbers. In 2022, some 22% of voters claimed no religious affiliation, according to AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 94,000 voters nationwide. They contributed to voting coalitions that gave Democrats victories in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.

According to VoteCast, the Nones voted for Democratic over Republican House candidates 65% - 31%, and in 2022, voted for Joe Biden over Donald Trump 72% - 25%.

Among all U.S. adults, 29% are nones — those who identify as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular” — according a 2021 report by the Pew Research Center. That’s up 10 percentage points from a decade earlier, according to Pew. And the younger the adults, the more likely they are to be unaffiliated, according to a 2019 Pew analysis, further signaling the growing clout of the nones.

A sort of mirror image of white evangelicals.

Atheists and agnostics form only a subset of nones and are less numerous than evangelicals. But they are more likely than evangelicals to make a campaign donation, attend a political meeting or join a protest, Burge said, citing the Harvard-affiliated Cooperative Election Study.

...
The nones equaled Catholics at 22% of the electorate, though they were barely half the figure for Protestants and other Christians (43%), according to VoteCast. Other religious groups totaled 13%, including 3% Jewish and 1% Muslim.

Separately, 30% of voters identified as born again or evangelical Christians.

 

[lpetrich]

How Nones voted:

• About 4/5 against abortion restrictions in Michigan and Kentucky
• 2/3 to 3/4 supported Democratic statewide candidates in Arizona and Wisconsin
• About 4/5 voted for Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman

While Shapiro openly speaks about his Jewish values motivating his public service, Fetterman has not incorporated any discernible religious tradition in his public statements. He often frames issues in ethical terms— such as promoting criminal justice reform and raising the minimum wage, even calling abortion rights “sacred” — without reference to a religious tradition.

The Nones are a mixed bag.

• Nothing in Particular - 2/3 - alienated from both religion and politics
• Atheists and agnostics - 1/3 - "punch above their weight, given their heavy involvement in politics."

Ryan Burge: “At least among white people, it’s become clear the Democratic Party has become the party for the non-religious people.”

Yet it’s not their party alone. The Democratic coalition draws heavily from religious groups — Black Protestants, liberal Jews, Catholics of color. The Black church tradition, in particular, has a highly devout base in support of moderate and progressive policies.

“I think the Democrats have the biggest problem in the world because they have to keep atheists and Black Protestants happy at the same time,” Burge said.

Tensions surfaced in 2019 when the Democratic National Committee passed a resolution praising the religiously unaffiliated in language that some saw as overstating their clout and denigrating religious values.

There are some differences between secular and religious Democrats.

While majorities of them thought that abortion should be legal most of the time, they did have some differences about all the time, and about being a liberal in general.

Which affiliation	Always legal	Liberal
Nones	6 out of 10	69%
Christians	4 out of 10	46%

 

[lpetrich]

Back to Nonreligious voters gave Democrats crucial wins. Will people notice?

By comparison, 30% of voters were evangelical Christians, who are overwhelmingly Republican. 22% of voters were Catholics (who are typically split down the middle, politically). 13% of voters were other flavors of Christian. 13% of voters were from other religious groups.

...
The Michigan abortion measure passed with 56% support. Kentucky’s attempt at a constitutional abortion ban failed with 52% of voters rejecting it. Arizona’s state-wide races were incredibly close, but Democrats pulled off major victories by extremely slim margins. In an extremely gerrymandered Wisconsin, Democrats prevented a GOP super-majority, allowing the Democratic governor to maintain his veto power. And in Pennsylvania, Fetterman’s win was called on election night, while Shapiro (who has famously gone after religious sexual abuse as attorney general) won comfortably against a Christian nationalist.

Which affiliation	Population	Voters
Nones	29%	22%
Christians	63%	65%

So the nones punch under their weight. While atheists and agnostics do well, the NIP's do very poorly. Being alienated from politics very likely means being very unwilling to vote.

 

[lpetrich]

For what it’s worth, there are nonreligious Americans who vote for Republicans, but let’s be honest about what that means: For any talk about their Libertarian political philosophy and other conservative positions, they’re ultimately voting for Christian nationalists to run the country. They’re not bothered enough by that to vote for the opposition. That should tell you everything you need to know about them. Much like the pathetic “Log Cabin Republicans” who represent gay and lesbian conservatives by electing people who (surprise!) oppose LGBTQ rights, the handful of secular Republicans are on an island of their own creation, not taken seriously by other atheists or the very people who run their party.

Reminds me of when commentator Dave Rubin, a right-wing gay man in a same-sex marriage. They had children by hiring some women to be surrogate mothers, and some of DR's audience(?) were outraged. He blamed "the left".

 

[crazyfingers]

Surprise, surprise, surprise

Kari Lake files suit challenging certification of Arizona election​

Kari Lake files suit challenging certification of Arizona election | CNN Politics

Defeated Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has filed suit in Arizona Superior Court challenging the certification of the state's election.

www.cnn.com

“Kari Lake needs attention like a fish needs water – and independent experts and local election officials of both parties have made clear that this was a safe, secure and fair election,” Hobbs said, calling the filing “baseless” and a “nuisance lawsuit.”

Lake has questioned the integrity of the results since she lost last month’s election. Arizona certified the election on Monday. It was not immediately clear what impact the challenge would have.

All four GOP nominees that were at the top of the Arizona ticket had echoed Trump’s lies about the 2020 election.

 

[crazyfingers]

More details in the WaPo story

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/09/kari-lake-lawsuit-arizona/

In the 70-page lawsuit, Lake asks the Maricopa County Superior Court for an order “declaring that Kari Lake is the winner of the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election,” or, alternatively, throwing out the results of the election and requiring the county to conduct a new election.

...

Even before midterm voting began, Lake refused to say she would accept the results of the gubernatorial election unless she won. She described the race as “botched” before it was called.

The lawsuit repeats unsupported claims that Lake has previously made about Maricopa County’s election and alleges that Hobbs and county officials have “shattered” public trust in the election process.

...

Responding to a request for comment from The Washington Post, Lake’s legal counsel, Kurt Olsen, cited details from the lawsuit and said “it’s about restoring trust in the election process.”

No it's not about restoring trust. It's about creating distrust.

I really wish that there were greater consequences for filing unsubstantiated lawsuits.