375 million jobs may be automated by 2030

[RavenSky]

A new report has a stern warning for the global workforce: stay flexible.

The McKinsey Global Institute cautions that as many as 375 million workers will need to switch occupational categories by 2030 due to automation.

The work most at risk of automation includes physical jobs in predictable environments, such as operating machinery or preparing fast food. Data collection and processing is also in the crosshairs, with implications for mortgage origination, paralegals, accounts and back-office processing.

To remain viable, workers must embrace retraining in different fields. But governments and companies will need to help smooth what could be a rocky transition.

"The model where people go to school for the first 20 years of life and work for the next 40 or 50 years is broken," Susan Lund, a partner for the McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report, told CNN Tech.

"We're going to have to think about learning and training throughout the course of your career."

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/28/tec...r=twCNN112817job-automation-report0839PMStory

 

[none]

coal it's the latest gold
and you really think education is a priority? or is going to be?
some big changes are going to have to occur with the politicians, maybe their congregations

 

[barbos]

375 million over the world? Seems kinda low, unless that loss is concentrated in developed countries mostly.
Besides usual suspects for being fully automated I expect doctors, including surgeons being replaced. A lot of teachers too.

 

[DBT]

There are some reports that suggest that automation could have been far more widespread right now if it wasn't for Government intervention, tax breaks and other inducements, bribes in effect, for industry to employ people rather than expand their automation programs.

 

[LordKiran]

375 million over the world? Seems kinda low, unless that loss is concentrated in developed countries mostly.
Besides usual suspects for being fully automated I expect doctors, including surgeons being replaced. A lot of teachers too.

As many as a third of Americans employed at this very moment are in occupations that involve driving or customer service, two things that are going to get axed first as a result of automation.

 

[Harry Bosch]

There are some reports that suggest that automation could have been far more widespread right now if it wasn't for Government intervention, tax breaks and other inducements, bribes in effect, for industry to employ people rather than expand their automation programs.

What incentives are those? You can expense the costs associated with paying for an employee like any other expense. Whereas you have to depreciate expenses associated with capital equipment. But that's not strong enough incentive on it's own IMO. Government could do more to incentivize companies hiring more.

 

[RavenSky]

375 million over the world? Seems kinda low, unless that loss is concentrated in developed countries mostly.
Besides usual suspects for being fully automated I expect doctors, including surgeons being replaced. A lot of teachers too.

As many as a third of Americans employed at this very moment are in occupations that involve driving or customer service, two things that are going to get axed first as a result of automation.

This reminds me of a customer service call I had a year or so ago. I think (iirc) it was via chat box on the company's website. I initially spoke with one person. She introduced herself and was super nice, helped me with almost everything I needed; but there one one issue that required a specialist. No problem. She transferred me to the specialist. He was an asshole... and I mean a complete and total fucking jerkface. I finally got fed up and told him to transfer me back to Cindy (or whatever her name was). He laughed at me and told me she was a bot.

Quite embarrassing, but it confirmed 2 things:

1. He was, indeed, an insufferable jackass
2. For the most part, yes - even customer service can be automated (and maybe should be)

 

[LordKiran]

375 million over the world? Seems kinda low, unless that loss is concentrated in developed countries mostly.
Besides usual suspects for being fully automated I expect doctors, including surgeons being replaced. A lot of teachers too.

As many as a third of Americans employed at this very moment are in occupations that involve driving or customer service, two things that are going to get axed first as a result of automation.

This reminds me of a customer service call I had a year or so ago. I think (iirc) it was via chat box on the company's website. I initially spoke with one person. She introduced herself and was super nice, helped me with almost everything I needed; but there one one issue that required a specialist. No problem. She transferred me to the specialist. He was an asshole... and I mean a complete and total fucking jerkface. I finally got fed up and told him to transfer me back to Cindy (or whatever her name was). He laughed at me and told me she was a bot.

Quite embarrassing, but it confirmed 2 things:

1. He was, indeed, an insufferable jackass
2. For the most part, yes - even customer service can be automated (and maybe should be)

Personally I look forward to customer service/service jobs in general being automated because machines don't get mouthy or spit in your food when they're frustrated.

 

[rousseau]

2030 seems like a pretty reasonable time horizon for this to happen. Automated vehicles seem like they're going to start coming at us fast, and beside that the technology, manpower, and money is now there to automate whatever we want, so it's really just a matter of time. 12 years is *eons* in the tech world these days.

One thing I wonder about is software development. They say, in the long run, it's at risk too, but I suspect that one is a bit trickier and may take more time.

 

[untermensche]

The masters will automate to serve them and to harm workers and make workers more insecure.

Automation could just as easily replace the masters and increase the number of workers.

Automation is neutral. It is something that needs human direction.

Right now the direction is to give the masters more control and give the workers less.

It does not have to be like that.

 

[Shake]

The jobs will be in the creation and maintenance of the automation. Coding, it would seem, will remain relevant for a while anyway.

 

[rousseau]

The jobs will be in the creation and maintenance of the automation. Coding, it would seem, will remain relevant for a while anyway.

I've also heard claims that jobs requiring social skills will remain relevant, like managerial stuff. Although others will claim that even CEOs are at risk.

In any case, the next few decades will be interesting.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I see a world with a lot of crappy little $15 an hour jobs, some necessary, some not. This is your UBI.
And you thought you were going to get to sit on your ass and play with a potter's wheel or get into watercolors...find yourself.

 

[rousseau]

I see a world with a lot of crappy little $15 an hour jobs, some necessary, some not. This is your UBI.
And you thought you were going to get to sit on your ass and play with a potter's wheel or get into watercolors...find yourself.

Nash equilibrium. We'll do a terrible job of preparing the world for the ensuing changes. Eventually it'll get bad enough that the need for improvements are so blatantly obvious that improvements will be enacted.

 

[whichphilosophy]

A new report has a stern warning for the global workforce: stay flexible.

The McKinsey Global Institute cautions that as many as 375 million workers will need to switch occupational categories by 2030 due to automation.

The work most at risk of automation includes physical jobs in predictable environments, such as operating machinery or preparing fast food. Data collection and processing is also in the crosshairs, with implications for mortgage origination, paralegals, accounts and back-office processing.

To remain viable, workers must embrace retraining in different fields. But governments and companies will need to help smooth what could be a rocky transition.

"The model where people go to school for the first 20 years of life and work for the next 40 or 50 years is broken," Susan Lund, a partner for the McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report, told CNN Tech.

"We're going to have to think about learning and training throughout the course of your career."

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/28/tec...r=twCNN112817job-automation-report0839PMStory

So it makes sense not to drive in unlimited amounts of migrants into the US.

 

[rousseau]

A new report has a stern warning for the global workforce: stay flexible.

The McKinsey Global Institute cautions that as many as 375 million workers will need to switch occupational categories by 2030 due to automation.

The work most at risk of automation includes physical jobs in predictable environments, such as operating machinery or preparing fast food. Data collection and processing is also in the crosshairs, with implications for mortgage origination, paralegals, accounts and back-office processing.

To remain viable, workers must embrace retraining in different fields. But governments and companies will need to help smooth what could be a rocky transition.

"The model where people go to school for the first 20 years of life and work for the next 40 or 50 years is broken," Susan Lund, a partner for the McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report, told CNN Tech.

"We're going to have to think about learning and training throughout the course of your career."

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/28/tec...r=twCNN112817job-automation-report0839PMStory

So it makes sense not to drive in unlimited amounts of migrants into the US.

Indeed, we wouldn't want the migrants to have to go through that.

 

[RavenSky]

As many as a third of Americans employed at this very moment are in occupations that involve driving or customer service, two things that are going to get axed first as a result of automation.

This reminds me of a customer service call I had a year or so ago. I think (iirc) it was via chat box on the company's website. I initially spoke with one person. She introduced herself and was super nice, helped me with almost everything I needed; but there one one issue that required a specialist. No problem. She transferred me to the specialist. He was an asshole... and I mean a complete and total fucking jerkface. I finally got fed up and told him to transfer me back to Cindy (or whatever her name was). He laughed at me and told me she was a bot.

Quite embarrassing, but it confirmed 2 things:

1. He was, indeed, an insufferable jackass
2. For the most part, yes - even customer service can be automated (and maybe should be)

Personally I look forward to customer service/service jobs in general being automated because machines don't get mouthy or spit in your food when they're frustrated.

good point

 

[Jayjay]

The masters will automate to serve them and to harm workers and make workers more insecure.

Automation could just as easily replace the masters and increase the number of workers.

Automation is neutral. It is something that needs human direction.

Right now the direction is to give the masters more control and give the workers less.

It does not have to be like that.

If you are right, then nobody should worry about getting laid off: they can just buy a machine that will boss them around, and everything is fine. There is just a small problem of getting paid for taking orders from a tamagotchi but that'll probably sort itself out like everything else in a socialism does.

 

[untermensche]

The masters will automate to serve them and to harm workers and make workers more insecure.

Automation could just as easily replace the masters and increase the number of workers.

Automation is neutral. It is something that needs human direction.

Right now the direction is to give the masters more control and give the workers less.

It does not have to be like that.

If you are right, then nobody should worry about getting laid off: they can just buy a machine that will boss them around, and everything is fine. There is just a small problem of getting paid for taking orders from a tamagotchi but that'll probably sort itself out like everything else in a socialism does.

That's not close to what I mean.

If the workers had control over the direction and evolution of automation they could easily replace the masters with it.

And the direction of the evolution of automation would be totally different.

Automation is not something that just happens. It is carefully planned and directed.

Right now it is being directed to make most more and more helpless.

Talking about automation in a dictatorial rigid top-down system is to talk about something evil.

 

[dismal]

In related news: workers becoming obsolete is going to be difficult for workers-are-the-source-of-all-value fetishists.