52, and other unimaginably large numbers

[untermensche]

If two decks of cards are shuffled randomly and vigorously and both end up in the same order what are the chances of that?

Answer: 100%, It happened.

Stated in the past tense, that is correct. Stated in the future tense, it would be, "The chances of a second deck matching the first is 1/52!"

But these odds are child's play.

What are the odds of any individual being born?

Now those are some high odds.

 

[DBT]

Every baby born is born an individual. There is not a single human being in the history of the species that is or was not an individual.

 

[untermensche]

Every baby born is born an individual. There is not a single human being in the history of the species that is or was not an individual.

How amazing!!

A child is the meeting of one egg and one sperm.

So first you have the odds of two people getting together and mating. These are incalculable but they are something.

A man produces millions of sperm cells.

Next you have the odds of a specific sperm cell being involved. This is more calculable but it is astronomic.

Then you have to calculate the odds of a specific egg cell being involved.

Not as high as the sperm but huge.

This gives you the odds of one person being born from two particular individuals.

But then you have to calculate in the same odds of these particular people existing and their parents and so on.

All the way back to prehuman ancestors and every organism that HAD to exist for any specific person to exist.

The odds are incalculable but the odds of 52 cards is child's play and very small in comparison.

We all have beaten odds that are unimaginable to be here.

 

[Tigers!]

I've always liked math; it's just that compared to you guys, it's not my strong suit.

Was that an intended pun? The talk is of cards and use mention suit?

 

[DBT]

Every baby born is born an individual. There is not a single human being in the history of the species that is or was not an individual.

How amazing!!

A child is the meeting of one egg and one sperm.

So first you have the odds of two people getting together and mating. These are incalculable but they are something.

A man produces millions of sperm cells.

Next you have the odds of a specific sperm cell being involved. This is more calculable but it is astronomic.

Then you have to calculate the odds of a specific egg cell being involved.

Not as high as the sperm but huge.

This gives you the odds of one person being born from two particular individuals.

But then you have to calculate in the same odds of these particular people existing and their parents and so on.

All the way back to prehuman ancestors and every organism that HAD to exist for any specific person to exist.

The odds are incalculable but the odds of 52 cards is child's play and very small in comparison.

We all have beaten odds that are unimaginable to be here.

What you said and what I responded to was; ''What are the odds of any individual being born?''

So you are now shifting the focus from the fact existence to the statistical unlikelihood of the existence of life and the human species. That anything exists may seem unlikely because we don't have the necessary information to determine if it is likely or not, the existence of anything may be unlikely or not, we don't know, however here we are, we exist. And because we exist, we breed and procreate and by necessity of the very conditions of life and our existence every child that is born must necessarily be an individual.

 

[ronburgundy]

Nope. At this point, you are not quite 5% there. Repeat all of those steps from the very beginning approximately 250 more times, and you will then have lived long enough to have created every possible arrangement of cards, as long as you arranged them non-stop 1 time every second.

.

This seems wrong. If your are 5% there, then only 20 more cycles are needed to get 100% there, correct?
So, is the 5% wrong. Should it be .004% ?

(but otherwise a fun illustration)

 

[fast]

I've always liked math; it's just that compared to you guys, it's not my strong suit.

Was that an intended pun? The talk is of cards and use mention suit?

If I told ya, I'd have to deck ya

 

[Bomb#20]

I've always liked math; it's just that compared to you guys, it's not my strong suit.

Was that an intended pun? The talk is of cards and use mention suit?

If I told ya, I'd have to deck ya

Oh, you're such a card!

 

[fromderinside]

I've always liked math; it's just that compared to you guys, it's not my strong suit.

Was that an intended pun? The talk is of cards and use mention suit?

If I told ya, I'd have to deck ya

Oh, you're such a card!

Yeah, a joker. Deal again.

 

[untermensche]

How amazing!!

A child is the meeting of one egg and one sperm.

So first you have the odds of two people getting together and mating. These are incalculable but they are something.

A man produces millions of sperm cells.

Next you have the odds of a specific sperm cell being involved. This is more calculable but it is astronomic.

Then you have to calculate the odds of a specific egg cell being involved.

Not as high as the sperm but huge.

This gives you the odds of one person being born from two particular individuals.

But then you have to calculate in the same odds of these particular people existing and their parents and so on.

All the way back to prehuman ancestors and every organism that HAD to exist for any specific person to exist.

The odds are incalculable but the odds of 52 cards is child's play and very small in comparison.

We all have beaten odds that are unimaginable to be here.

What you said and what I responded to was; ''What are the odds of any individual being born?''

So you are now shifting the focus from the fact existence to the statistical unlikelihood of the existence of life and the human species. That anything exists may seem unlikely because we don't have the necessary information to determine if it is likely or not, the existence of anything may be unlikely or not, we don't know, however here we are, we exist. And because we exist, we breed and procreate and by necessity of the very conditions of life and our existence every child that is born must necessarily be an individual.

No shift.

That is a discussion of the astronomical unfathomable odds for any individual to be born.

That you can't see it is telling.

The odds of being born makes the odds of some deck of cards look like a safe bet.

 

[DBT]

What you said and what I responded to was; ''What are the odds of any individual being born?''

So you are now shifting the focus from the fact existence to the statistical unlikelihood of the existence of life and the human species. That anything exists may seem unlikely because we don't have the necessary information to determine if it is likely or not, the existence of anything may be unlikely or not, we don't know, however here we are, we exist. And because we exist, we breed and procreate and by necessity of the very conditions of life and our existence every child that is born must necessarily be an individual.

No shift.

That is a discussion of the astronomical unfathomable odds for any individual to be born.

That you can't see it is telling.

The odds of being born makes the odds of some deck of cards look like a safe bet.

Individuals emerge from existing conditions, however improbable. Once established - being probability realized however unlikely - the system, life, animals, plants,humankind, works as it does and does what it does and every baby that is born is necessarily an individual.

 

[untermensche]

No shift.

That is a discussion of the astronomical unfathomable odds for any individual to be born.

That you can't see it is telling.

The odds of being born makes the odds of some deck of cards look like a safe bet.

Individuals emerge from existing conditions, however improbable. Once established - being probability realized however unlikely - the system, life, animals, plants,humankind, works as it does and does what it does and every baby that is born is necessarily an individual.

No, humans do not "emerge".

They result from the combination of one sperm and one egg meeting at the right place.

The odds of that one sperm meeting that one egg are astronomical.

Then when you include every single organism that HAD to exist for that sperm and egg to exist the odds are too large to fit this page.

 

[DBT]

Individuals emerge from existing conditions, however improbable. Once established - being probability realized however unlikely - the system, life, animals, plants,humankind, works as it does and does what it does and every baby that is born is necessarily an individual.

No, humans do not "emerge".

They result from the combination of one sperm and one egg meeting at the right place.

The odds of that one sperm meeting that one egg are astronomical.

Then when you include every single organism that HAD to exist for that sperm and egg to exist the odds are too large to fit this page.

My use of ''emerge'' was rhetorical and in no way meant to exclude the process and mechanisms of procreation. ''Emerge'' was not meant to represent spontaneous emergence....which should have been clear given the context of my post.

 

[untermensche]

No, humans do not "emerge".

They result from the combination of one sperm and one egg meeting at the right place.

The odds of that one sperm meeting that one egg are astronomical.

Then when you include every single organism that HAD to exist for that sperm and egg to exist the odds are too large to fit this page.

My use of ''emerge'' was rhetorical and in no way meant to exclude the process and mechanisms of procreation. ''Emerge'' was not meant to represent spontaneous emergence....which should have been clear given the context of my post.

I notice you said nothing of any substance.

 

[DBT]

My use of ''emerge'' was rhetorical and in no way meant to exclude the process and mechanisms of procreation. ''Emerge'' was not meant to represent spontaneous emergence....which should have been clear given the context of my post.

I notice you said nothing of any substance.

I notice that your response is unsurprising and predictable. Just another example of assertion, dismissal and denial. Dismiss whatever your opponent happens to say that disagrees with your beliefs, which is pretty much everything, and likewise deny the validity of anything that is said.

 

[untermensche]

I notice you said nothing of any substance.

I notice that your response is unsurprising and predictable. Just another example of assertion, dismissal and denial. Dismiss whatever your opponent happens to say that disagrees with your beliefs, which is pretty much everything, and likewise deny the validity of anything that is said.

You are not an opponent.

You are a punching bag.

 

[fast]

I notice that your response is unsurprising and predictable. Just another example of assertion, dismissal and denial. Dismiss whatever your opponent happens to say that disagrees with your beliefs, which is pretty much everything, and likewise deny the validity of anything that is said.

You are not an opponent.

You are a punching bag.

That sounds like a fortune cookie

 

[DBT]

I notice that your response is unsurprising and predictable. Just another example of assertion, dismissal and denial. Dismiss whatever your opponent happens to say that disagrees with your beliefs, which is pretty much everything, and likewise deny the validity of anything that is said.

You are not an opponent.

You are a punching bag.

You are a legend in your own mind. A poster who only has opponents, who patiently try to help you to understand the basics of logic, neuroscience, etc, but are fighting a losing battle against someone who appears incapable of understanding.

 

[untermensche]

You are not an opponent.

You are a punching bag.

You are a legend in your own mind. A poster who only has opponents, who patiently try to help you to understand the basics of logic, neuroscience, etc, but are fighting a losing battle against someone who appears incapable of understanding.

Give me a break.

I am somebody that disagree with you on a few things.

Stop being so melodramatic.

None of this here is more than mental exercise. None of it means anything.

 

[Malintent]

Nope. At this point, you are not quite 5% there. Repeat all of those steps from the very beginning approximately 250 more times, and you will then have lived long enough to have created every possible arrangement of cards, as long as you arranged them non-stop 1 time every second.

Large numbers are... really large.

Are you missing a decimal? Should that be: "not quite 0.5%" ?

I wonder if there is a way to estimate how many standard 52 card decks have been shuffled since they were first introduced.

You and 1 other noticed my error... yes, 0.5%, not 5%.