52 Palestinian protesters killed at border

[Loren Pechtel]

You notice the Wolfram Alpha link showing that quarter billion to 1 number?

I noticed you have yet to produce any disinterested evidence of any fact.

Calculating a number passed on bigoted assumption is simply numerical babbling. No one is disputing whether these victims were Hamas. The issue is whether they were actual involved in violence that actually threatened the security of Israel.

You're not addressing the facts.

I'm looking at the numbers. You are asserting that Israel is simply randomly shooting people. I'm looking at the odds of the outcome if that were true. Even figuring half the people were Hamas (and that's certainly a great overstatement but I haven't been able to find numbers) the odds of the actual outcome being by chance is infinitesimal.

Either explain how Israel randomly hit Hamas members or accept that Israel was targeting on behavior.

 

[laughing dog]

You're not addressing the facts.

Neither are you.

I'm looking at the numbers. You are asserting that Israel is simply randomly shooting people.

No, I am not. I am asserting we don't know the facts.

I'm looking at the odds of the outcome if that were true. Even figuring half the people were Hamas (and that's certainly a great overstatement but I haven't been able to find numbers) the odds of the actual outcome being by chance is infinitesimal.

No, the odds are about in 1 in 10. But all of that is does to numerical fact that any particular outcome in a binonimal distribution with the 63 trials has a low probability when the the probability of a success is 1/2.

 

[untermensche]

If the "protesters" want to make their point by committing suicide, that's their choice. There is a very easy way to stay alive: don't approach the border fence and protest at a safe distance.

Spoken like a true despot.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Neither are you.
No, I am not. I am asserting we don't know the facts.

I'm looking at the odds of the outcome if that were true. Even figuring half the people were Hamas (and that's certainly a great overstatement but I haven't been able to find numbers) the odds of the actual outcome being by chance is infinitesimal.

No, the odds are about in 1 in 10. But all of that is does to numerical fact that any particular outcome in a binonimal distribution with the 63 trials has a low probability when the the probability of a success is 1/2.

Your 1 in 10 is for the center of the distribution, not far out on the tail.

While the number of options in such a distribution does reduce the odds of any given value it doesn't reduce them anything like enough to explain that number.

 

[laughing dog]

Neither are you.
No, I am not. I am asserting we don't know the facts.

I'm looking at the odds of the outcome if that were true. Even figuring half the people were Hamas (and that's certainly a great overstatement but I haven't been able to find numbers) the odds of the actual outcome being by chance is infinitesimal.

No, the odds are about in 1 in 10. But all of that is does to numerical fact that any particular outcome in a binonimal distribution with the 63 trials has a low probability when the the probability of a success is 1/2.

Your 1 in 10 is for the center of the distribution, not far out on the tail.

Duh, I was responded to your "half" comment.

[
While the number of options in such a distribution does reduce the odds of any given value it doesn't reduce them anything like enough to explain that number.

Your calculated number is a meaningless value. It is packed with unsubstantiated assumptions and avoids the basic question of there is actual disinterested evidence that those who were shot (which includes people who were not killed) were actually engaged in violence that a reasonable person would think threatened the state of Israel or the IDF. No amount of calculations can address that fundamental question.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Your 1 in 10 is for the center of the distribution, not far out on the tail.

Duh, I was responded to your "half" comment.

[
While the number of options in such a distribution does reduce the odds of any given value it doesn't reduce them anything like enough to explain that number.

Your calculated number is a meaningless value. It is packed with unsubstantiated assumptions and avoids the basic question of there is actual disinterested evidence that those who were shot (which includes people who were not killed) were actually engaged in violence that a reasonable person would think threatened the state of Israel or the IDF. No amount of calculations can address that fundamental question.

I made a very simple bounding calculation, it contained no assumptions.

I was unable to find any useful data on how many Hamas and non-Hamas were involved in the protests. It's obvious that it's mostly non-Hamas, though. Thus I took as a bounding value that the numbers were equal--reality is certainly more non-Hamas than Hamas. Using that value I then calculated the odds of the observed deaths being by chance. As the math was based on a bounding value rather than a real value the result of this calculation is also a bounding value. The real odds of it being by chance are far worse than the 1 in a quarter billion I calculated.

Are you not familiar with the idea of doing a bounding calculation?

 

[laughing dog]

[
I made a very simple bounding calculation, it contained no assumptions.

Of course it did. You are assuming that some bounding calculation has relevance to
the basic question of there is actual disinterested evidence that those who were shot (which includes people who were not killed) were actually engaged in violence that a reasonable person would think threatened the state of Israel or the IDF.

which, of course, it does not.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

[
I made a very simple bounding calculation, it contained no assumptions.

Of course it did. You are assuming that some bounding calculation has relevance to
the basic question of there is actual disinterested evidence that those who were shot (which includes people who were not killed) were actually engaged in violence that a reasonable person would think threatened the state of Israel or the IDF.

which, of course, it does not.

We have two scenarios:

1) They were targeted based on behavior.

2) They were random.

I'm looking at the odds of the outcome from scenario #2--and finding the odds are astronomically against it. Thus it must be scenario #1 unless you have a #3 to present.

 

[laughing dog]

[
I made a very simple bounding calculation, it contained no assumptions.

Of course it did. You are assuming that some bounding calculation has relevance to
the basic question of there is actual disinterested evidence that those who were shot (which includes people who were not killed) were actually engaged in violence that a reasonable person would think threatened the state of Israel or the IDF.

which, of course, it does not.

We have two scenarios:

1) They were targeted based on behavior.

2) They were random.

I'm looking at the odds of the outcome from scenario #2--and finding the odds are astronomically against it. Thus it must be scenario #1 unless you have a #3 to present.

No, because you are ignoring the number of protesters who were shot but not killed.

But assuming it is scenario 1, that behavior could simply be "being present". You have presented absolutely no disinterested evidence that any of these people (which includes people who were not killed) were actually engaged in violence that a reasonable person would think threatened the state of Israel or the IDF.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We have two scenarios:

1) They were targeted based on behavior.

2) They were random.

I'm looking at the odds of the outcome from scenario #2--and finding the odds are astronomically against it. Thus it must be scenario #1 unless you have a #3 to present.

No, because you are ignoring the number of protesters who were shot but not killed.

But assuming it is scenario 1, that behavior could simply be "being present". You have presented absolutely no disinterested evidence that any of these people (which includes people who were not killed) were actually engaged in violence that a reasonable person would think threatened the state of Israel or the IDF.

I was using the number killed because we have a much better idea of whether they were terrorists or not. There's no reason the ratio should be different for the merely injured.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

BTW, that baby wasn't killed by Israel:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-health-ministry-removes-baby-from-border-clash-death-toll/

And Hamas' strategy:

https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/do-not-be-fooled-by-what-hamas-is-doing-gaza-israel-1.464324

 

[Derec]

Now Hamas and Islamic Jihad are shooting >100 rockets and mortars into Israel.
Hamas, Islamic Jihad jointly claim barrage of rockets fired at Israel

Israel should resume the policy of targeting terrorist leaders. Yahya Sinwar needs a Hellfire missile up his ass.