Afghan "train, advise and assist" 1984 style

[ZiprHead]

Being reported this morning that we got 22,000 out yesterday.

 

[TomC]

Yeah, that's not really true though. As early as September 13 the Taliban signaled willingness to do this.They simply required that we provide evidence of his involvement (at that exact time, Al Qaeda was still denying responsibility). Right before the actual invasion, they floated turning him over to third-party state. Indeed, its clear that they just wanted to save face somehow internally. All of this could have been settled diplomatically, or at least, with a small-scale military action without an occupation. We have plenty of Islamist states as allies that would have worked.

The Neocons did paint the Taliban into a corner, but we know via Richard Clarke that the talk about Iraq was immediate after the 9/11 attack.

The Taliban weren't exactly bargaining in good faith. The Taliban knew of the attack, and knew of bin Laden's involvement, and some didn't like the idea. So asking for evidence was maneuvering and not being honest.

Asking for evidence was asking to be treated as equals.

Would the US not present evidence to nations like France or Germany?

The Taliban wanted exactly what happened.

To bait the US into a futile and costly misadventure.

And humiliate the US in the end.

I don't think that the Taliban would ever give up bin Laden, no matter what. He was a hero. And not just to them, across the Muslim world. We considered him a terrorist, they considered him a general.

I think that the Taliban was just stalling for time as they prepared for the coming invasion.
Tom

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

US have not even tried for it to not work.

You forget about the torture?

Japan and Germany has had the US military infestations for a very long time. The Marshall Plan was used to help undo WWII in Europe.

I don't recall nazi insurgence of the 50-60s.

Germany and Japan were no where near as undeveloped as Afghanistan. Even after being bombed to hell or even nuked, they still had much more capacity for a 1st world government.

South Korea somehow managed to blossom into a democracy after decades.

Yes, that's what I call "mission accomplished".

Luck? I know very little about how it all went down, but it certainly isn't the standard.

Just a few more bombs or bullets is rarely going to make a difference. And the ‘kill em all’ mantra was kind of what the W Admin had in mind with Whatever it Takes. Didn’t work, you can’t do it, not without substantial home side losses.

Again, they never actually tried this strategy. Their strategy was to push taliban out and hope that over time they will cease to be relevant.

There was bombing, there was fleeing, there was torture, there was killing. In order to do the door to door slaughter would have required 10x the troops and more Allied deaths.

US failed to learn from soviet experience, who, by the way, did much better.

Just because the Taliban is in control of more territory now than before we invaded, everyone just has to call it a failure. /sarcasm

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That was on the outskirts of town, but Taliban fighters had been infiltrating Kabul for months. Blending in with the population. Waiting. And they were able to do so because the Afghan security forces we poured so much money into simply didn't care. Oh, and the government we propped up was hopelessly corrupt. And the allies we worked with to overthrow the Taliban were murderous warlords who were just as bad as the Taliban.

There are two (well I suppose infinite) ways to look at this.

1) corruption / failure to train
2) weak / failure to train

or a more nuanced (and already noted)

3) we were leaving Afghanistan to either Taliban rule or a bloody civil war followed by Taliban rule or a bloody civil war stalemate

You'll notice that all three of those options really suck. The US wasn't merely evacuating Afghanistan it was abandoning them. So while it is real sexy to blame the Afghan military for failures of weakness or corruption, the reality is, we were abandoning them to a rather meek immediate / long-term future. The US was either in Afghanistan or not. We can't provide air support without being in the country due to geography. So what exactly should the Afghan military have done? Many with the means fled to get the heck out of the country. Otherwise, what, be capture, tortured, and decapitated, like literally?

And yeah, anyone paying attention could have told you that the Taliban would eventually take over after we left, but that fast?

In hindsight, it seems a bit more obvious than it did before it occurred.

 

[TomC]

That was on the outskirts of town, but Taliban fighters had been infiltrating Kabul for months. Blending in with the population. Waiting. And they were able to do so because the Afghan security forces we poured so much money into simply didn't care. Oh, and the government we propped up was hopelessly corrupt. And the allies we worked with to overthrow the Taliban were murderous warlords who were just as bad as the Taliban.

There are two (well I suppose infinite) ways to look at this.

1) corruption / failure to train
2) weak / failure to train

or a more nuanced (and already noted)

3) we were leaving Afghanistan to either Taliban rule or a bloody civil war followed by Taliban rule or a bloody civil war stalemate

You'll notice that all three of those options really suck. The US wasn't merely evacuating Afghanistan it was abandoning them. So while it is real sexy to blame the Afghan military for failures of weakness or corruption, the reality is, we were abandoning them to a rather meek immediate / long-term future. The US was either in Afghanistan or not. We can't provide air support without being in the country due to geography. So what exactly should the Afghan military have done? Many with the means fled to get the heck out of the country. Otherwise, what, be capture, tortured, and decapitated, like literally?

And yeah, anyone paying attention could have told you that the Taliban would eventually take over after we left, but that fast?

In hindsight, it seems a bit more obvious than it did before it occurred.

More obvious? To who? I'm certain that the Taliban knew that they already had the "hearts and minds", they just needed to get rid of the oppressors and their weapons.
Tom

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

To everyone. No one said the Taliban would be in charge before September 1st. Everyone acting like they knew it like the back of their hands is lying. We knew the Taliban had a great shot at overcoming the Afghan military over a period of months, not days.

 

[TomC]

To everyone. No one said the Taliban would be in charge before September 1st. Everyone acting like they knew it like the back of their hands is lying. We knew the Taliban had a great shot at overcoming the Afghan military over a period of months, not days.

By "no one" you mean nobody in the media that you pay attention to. I'm saying, millions of people in the Muslim world, and probably a bunch in the well informed western world, knew what the reality was.
Tom

 

[TomC]

The way I see it, Biden had the spine and the guts to just bite the bullet and do what needed done.

The Bush II administration created the mess. Later presidents kicked the can down the road a piece. Biden recognized that there wouldn't be graceful exit. He did what should have been done in 2003, before starting another unwinable war in the Muslim world.

And he knew he was going to catch a bunch of flak from partisan "armchair" generals, who could have done so much better.

But bottom line, he effing did it.

Tom

 

[barbos]

You forget about the torture?

Yes, they tried. But they did not try what I suggested - extermination of the taliban.

I don't recall nazi insurgence of the 50-60s.

Germany and Japan were no where near as undeveloped as Afghanistan. Even after being bombed to hell or even nuked, they still had much more capacity for a 1st world government.

It was not me who brought Germany/Japan.

South Korea somehow managed to blossom into a democracy after decades.

Yes, that's what I call "mission accomplished".

Luck? I know very little about how it all went down, but it certainly isn't the standard.

Not having to deal with crappy religion was a big help. And Korea had government before the war, and country was 100% homogeneous. But US should take the credit regardless.

Just a few more bombs or bullets is rarely going to make a difference. And the ‘kill em all’ mantra was kind of what the W Admin had in mind with Whatever it Takes. Didn’t work, you can’t do it, not without substantial home side losses.

Again, they never actually tried this strategy. Their strategy was to push taliban out and hope that over time they will cease to be relevant.

There was bombing, there was fleeing, there was torture, there was killing. In order to do the door to door slaughter would have required 10x the troops and more Allied deaths.

I disagree. US forces failed to learn from soviet invasion that you can't trust locals. That greatly reduced efficiency of extermination.
If I remember correctly the only reason why Bin laden got away during initial fighting was because US tried to rely on afghan "army"
Really, the fact that you can't trust anybody in the Middle East should have been obvious.

US failed to learn from soviet experience, who, by the way, did much better.

Just because the Taliban is in control of more territory now than before we invaded, everyone just has to call it a failure. /sarcasm

 

[Trausti]

The way I see it, Biden had the spine and the guts to just bite the bullet and do what needed done.

The Bush II administration created the mess. Later presidents kicked the can down the road a piece. Biden recognized that there wouldn't be graceful exit. He did what should have been done in 2003, before starting another unwinable war in the Muslim world.

And he knew he was going to catch a bunch of flak from partisan "armchair" generals, who could have done so much better.

But bottom line, he effing did it.

Tom

 

[TomC]

Really, the fact that you can't trust anybody in the Middle East should have been obvious.

Of course they hate us! We've given them zillions of reasons to hate us. We have thoroughly earned the label "The Great Satan".
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

Maybe instead of local soldiers, the US should just hire an army of undercover imams who would preach that America's excellence and superiority in the eyes of Allah. If he locals in middle-east and elsewhere don't want to accept sensible western values, maybe they'll be more receptive to religious claptrap.

Sensible western values?

Like invading other nations, killing people indiscriminately, and trying to establish a foreign puppet government?

If you put it that way, muslims already have western values. But no, I was referring to democracy, equality, and establishing a domestic puppet government.

 

[untermensche]

Maybe instead of local soldiers, the US should just hire an army of undercover imams who would preach that America's excellence and superiority in the eyes of Allah. If he locals in middle-east and elsewhere don't want to accept sensible western values, maybe they'll be more receptive to religious claptrap.

Sensible western values?

Like invading other nations, killing people indiscriminately, and trying to establish a foreign puppet government?

If you put it that way, muslims already have western values. But no, I was referring to democracy, equality, and establishing a domestic puppet government.

US democracy is corrupted by money and corporate power.

The US has nothing to say to any other nation about democracy.

 

[TomC]

Maybe instead of local soldiers, the US should just hire an army of undercover imams who would preach that America's excellence and superiority in the eyes of Allah. If he locals in middle-east and elsewhere don't want to accept sensible western values, maybe they'll be more receptive to religious claptrap.

Sensible western values?

Like invading other nations, killing people indiscriminately, and trying to establish a foreign puppet government?

If you put it that way, muslims already have western values. But no, I was referring to democracy, equality, and establishing a domestic puppet government.

Perhaps you're being snarky, I have trouble telling on TFT.

But could you either explain that or give an example of a Muslim country that invaded another country and laid waste? Some examples from the last century?

Sorry if I misunderstood you.
Tom

 

[funinspace]

But could you either explain that or give an example of a Muslim country that invaded another country and laid waste? Some examples from the last century?

Not quite invading, but...the Saudi's with their piglet supporting cast have heaped devastation upon Yemen via the air...

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Asking for evidence was asking to be treated as equals.

Would the US not present evidence to nations like France or Germany?

The Taliban wanted exactly what happened.

To bait the US into a futile and costly misadventure.

And humiliate the US in the end.

We quite correctly did not want to reveal our intel sources. Bin Laden admitted he was behind 9/11, why do you continue with this old bit about no evidence?

If we couldn't prove it that does not give us the right to change the government.

The UN supported going in and getting al Qaeda. But nation building was Bush's idea.

He admitted it. What more do you want?

What am I supposed to do, shoot you and send you to hell so you can go ask him?

 

[untermensche]

If we couldn't prove it that does not give us the right to change the government.

The UN supported going in and getting al Qaeda. But nation building was Bush's idea.

He admitted it. What more do you want?

What am I supposed to do, shoot you and send you to hell so you can go ask him?

You don't know what he said, when he said it or what he was talking about, or if the tape was not doctored.

And that tape came out after the US was asking permission to enter a sovereign nation's territory.

Is that the only evidence that exists?

 

[lpetrich]

Natasha Bertrand on Twitter: "Biden says the US has now overseen evacuation of more than 70,000 people (!) from Afghanistan since August 14, ten days ago" / Twitter
then
Ilhan Omar on Twitter: "This is incredible!" / Twitter

But Ilhan Omar is supposed to be on the side of the Taliban, right? That's what certain anti-Islamists might say.

 

[funinspace]

Oh Covfefe

Natasha Bertrand on Twitter: "Biden says the US has now overseen evacuation of more than 70,000 people (!) from Afghanistan since August 14, ten days ago" / Twitter
then
Ilhan Omar on Twitter: "This is incredible!" / Twitter

But Ilhan Omar is supposed to be on the side of the Taliban, right? That's what certain anti-Islamists might say.

It was supposed to be: "This is INCONCEIVABLE", but Jihadista Phone PC spell checker got in the way...

 

[lpetrich]

President Biden on Twitter: "We have helped to evacuate 70,700 people since August 14. This is a testament to the efforts of our brave service women and men, to our diplomats on the ground in Kabul, and to the Allies still standing with us." / Twitter

From @POTUS, "United States government official" (Government and state-affiliated media account labels) "The White House" (How to Tweet – what is a Tweet, keyboard shortcuts, and sources "Source Labels")

Joe Biden doesn't tweet as much as his predecessor, and it may be some White House staffer that does the tweeting for him.