Automation and future human occupations

[bigfield]

http://www.economist.com/news/speci...ause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety

And while it is easy to see fields in which automation might do away with the need for human labour, it is less obvious where technology might create new jobs. “We can’t predict what jobs will be created in the future, but it’s always been like that,” says Joel Mokyr, an economic historian at Northwestern University. Imagine trying to tell someone a century ago that her great-grandchildren would be video-game designers or cybersecurity specialists, he suggests. “These are jobs that nobody in the past would have predicted.”

Which occupations and industries do you predict will grow in the near future in response to the accelerating rate of automation?

(Assuming we don't reach the technological singularity)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Creating that automation.

More than 90% of my career has been spent on automation, either the direct control of the machinery or easing the user's burden of handling the information when it's not being directly fed into the machines. (Much of this has been on the software and data side--CAD drawings, pricing from those, breaking those down into station-by-station instructions for the factory and the like.)

 

[DBT]

Whatever new industries emerge, I think that large scale automation is sure to cause tremendous social upheaval in the near future (decades)....to state the obvious.

 

[bigfield]

Whatever new industries emerge, I think that large scale automation is sure to cause tremendous social upheaval in the near future (decades)....to state the obvious.

I predict automation will create social upheaval comparable to the Industrial Revolution, but on the scale of a global society. History shows that governments do not preempt radical social change; they react slowly. The British government didn't legislate to protect factory workers from exploitation until decades after the emergence of the factory and after the emergence of socialist movements; considering that many developed nations are governed by conservatives, we can probably expect the same lethargy this time around.

I'm curious about what shape people predict the resulting society will take, and I figured occupations would be a good focus. I'm also interested to see what people think will happen to the 40-hour full-time workload, self-employment vs corporate consolidation etc.

 

[DrZoidberg]

http://www.economist.com/news/speci...ause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety

And while it is easy to see fields in which automation might do away with the need for human labour, it is less obvious where technology might create new jobs. “We can’t predict what jobs will be created in the future, but it’s always been like that,” says Joel Mokyr, an economic historian at Northwestern University. Imagine trying to tell someone a century ago that her great-grandchildren would be video-game designers or cybersecurity specialists, he suggests. “These are jobs that nobody in the past would have predicted.”

Which occupations and industries do you predict will grow in the near future in response to the accelerating rate of automation?

(Assuming we don't reach the technological singularity)

I believe we'll get communism and a rise in artists doing all manner of pointless things. Philosopher will become a common job. I'm not saying this is desirable. But this is what I think will happen.

 

[DBT]

I don't have a whole lot of trust in the ability of our political and business leaders to deal with radical change in social and economic conditions brought about by whatever means, war, climate change, etc, or in this instance, widespread implementation of computerised systems which virtually do away with traditional jobs in the service and manufacturing sector, perhaps even extending into professional services, accounting, legal aid and so on.

I think that there will come a major crisis before the ponderous response of Government and business addresses the issue adequately.

I'd say that social disorder will get far worse before we start to see improvement in terms of dealing with this type of radical change.

 

[bigfield]

[I believe we'll get communism and a rise in artists doing all manner of pointless things. Philosopher will become a common job. I'm not saying this is desirable. But this is what I think will happen.

In that vein, we'd probably see more people pursue self-actualisation rather than shaping their lives around an economically-necessary profession. Intellectual types will pursue philosophy while artistically-inclined people will pursue the arts, but other types of people will pursue things like athletics, sports and Guinness world records.

If I didn't need to spend so much time doing paying work, I'd probably dedicate myself to hobby robotics.

 

[DrZoidberg]

[I believe we'll get communism and a rise in artists doing all manner of pointless things. Philosopher will become a common job. I'm not saying this is desirable. But this is what I think will happen.

In that vein, we'd probably see more people pursue self-actualisation rather than shaping their lives around an economically-necessary profession. Intellectual types will pursue philosophy while artistically-inclined people will pursue the arts, but other types of people will pursue things like athletics, sports and Guinness world records.

If I didn't need to spend so much time doing paying work, I'd probably dedicate myself to hobby robotics.

Wait, a minute. We're already there. The number of people doing work necessary for our sustenance is actually a minority Perhaps 5% are doing critical work for our survival. We could stretch it to 10% if we include stuff like police and functions designed to protect us from our own idiocy.

The rest is bullshit jobs. Very few people actually need to work today. And that number is falling fast. We've created an economic system which forces us to come up with ways with which to generate income. Which is heritage from the bad old days when industrialisation was just starting out. And now we've just kept it because... well... it works. Why fix something that ain't broke.

But I think it will break. When the robot revolution picks up and we fail in coming up with enough bullshit services to employ the swelling (not-)working class, then the current system will be in trouble. I think we're very very close to the breaking point.

I think we'll have a stratified society with an extremely and well educated rich upper class that does all the actually useful jobs. People who work themselves to death just to have the privilege of being part of this select few. The group that is today the middle class.

We'll have a massive (not-) working class who are on basic income and are free to do what they will all day. But what they chose to do will mostly be to drink, do drugs, play video games and beat each other up. This is based on the basic income experiments we've tried so far. But some of them will do something "useful". Like sit on forums like this and discuss the merits of not being a theist.

I think because the overwhelming majority being the poorest of the poor will effectively kill off the current upper class/1%-ers. That class are completely dependent on the "American dream" being credible. When such a big majority have nothing, no stake in the country and nothing to lose they'll have no problems with the state nationalising companies and "taking from the rich". Nation states will become a meaningless concept and today's rich will find they have nowhere to flee to and keep their wealth intact. Having traditional capital will no longer be the source of continued wealth. Only actual education and marketable skills will count, (in the extremely small existing market).

And to top it off, we will be way richer then we are today.

Anyhoo... I don't think this is that far off. Assuming nobody starts world war three. That would be like pressing the reset button.

 

[bigfield]

In that vein, we'd probably see more people pursue self-actualisation rather than shaping their lives around an economically-necessary profession. Intellectual types will pursue philosophy while artistically-inclined people will pursue the arts, but other types of people will pursue things like athletics, sports and Guinness world records.

If I didn't need to spend so much time doing paying work, I'd probably dedicate myself to hobby robotics.

Wait, a minute. We're already there. The number of people doing work necessary for our sustenance is actually a minority Perhaps 5% are doing critical work for our survival. We could stretch it to 10% if we include stuff like police and functions designed to protect us from our own idiocy.

The rest is bullshit jobs. Very few people actually need to work today. And that number is falling fast. We've created an economic system which forces us to come up with ways with which to generate income. Which is heritage from the bad old days when industrialisation was just starting out. And now we've just kept it because... well... it works. Why fix something that ain't broke.

I meant "economically-necessary" to mean that people need to work to generate an income.

 

[DBT]

I imagine a need for incentives to attend courses, higher education programs, time management, developing interests and so on as a set of (arbitrary) conditions for receiving a social wage. Perhaps with bonus payments for courses attended, sports, hobbies or pastimes developed, as a means of keeping the idle masses out of mischief.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I imagine a need for incentives to attend courses, higher education programs, time management, developing interests and so on as a set of (arbitrary) conditions for receiving a social wage. Perhaps with bonus payments for courses attended, sports, hobbies or pastimes developed, as a means of keeping the idle masses out of mischief.

How aren't you basically describing our current world?

 

[DBT]

I imagine a need for incentives to attend courses, higher education programs, time management, developing interests and so on as a set of (arbitrary) conditions for receiving a social wage. Perhaps with bonus payments for courses attended, sports, hobbies or pastimes developed, as a means of keeping the idle masses out of mischief.

How aren't you basically describing our current world?

Social wage being far more divorced from material productivity such as growing food, manufacturing and building the things we need and want and getting paid for our time, skills and labour for participating in that form of economic activity.

Presumably on a social wage one could do nothing whatsoever to contribute to society yet receive a secure regular wage.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Presumably on a social wage one could do nothing whatsoever to contribute to society yet receive a secure regular wage.

This is true. The vast majority of the DNC do receive a secure regular wage.

 

[J842P]

http://www.economist.com/news/speci...ause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety



Which occupations and industries do you predict will grow in the near future in response to the accelerating rate of automation?

(Assuming we don't reach the technological singularity)

I believe we'll get communism and a rise in artists doing all manner of pointless things. Philosopher will become a common job. I'm not saying this is desirable. But this is what I think will happen.

Such a strange perspective, the Swedish one.

 

[LordKiran]

http://www.economist.com/news/speci...ause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety



Which occupations and industries do you predict will grow in the near future in response to the accelerating rate of automation?

(Assuming we don't reach the technological singularity)

I believe we'll get communism and a rise in artists doing all manner of pointless things. Philosopher will become a common job. I'm not saying this is desirable. But this is what I think will happen.

Machines will come to dominate the humanities as well actually. In part they're already doing this, with computers generating pieces of music and visual art indistinguishable from those made by humans.

I predict something closer to Brave New World actually, where people will find that they are functionally obsolete in virtually every regard and will resign themselves to a long, comfortable, but ultimately vapid and pointless existence. From there, we either acheive some sort of planet-wide ego death or we wage war upon the machines and their keepers out of a pathological need to justify our own being

 

[bigfield]

I believe we'll get communism and a rise in artists doing all manner of pointless things. Philosopher will become a common job. I'm not saying this is desirable. But this is what I think will happen.

Machines will come to dominate the humanities as well actually. In part they're already doing this, with computers generating pieces of music and visual art indistinguishable from those made by humans.

I predict something closer to Brave New World actually, where people will find that they are functionally obsolete in virtually every regard and will resign themselves to a long, comfortable, but ultimately vapid and pointless existence. From there, we either acheive some sort of planet-wide ego death or we wage war upon the machines and their keepers out of a pathological need to justify our own being

The society of Brave New World accomplished stability with several techniques:

1. The working class were genetically identical to their workmates to ensure workplace harmony
2. People were conditioned from conception to prefer their assigned occupation and living conditions
3. People were conditioned to prefer 'vapid and pointless' entertainment and were averse to doing things like pondering their existence.
4. The entire population was addicted to (and paid with) a potent psychoactive drug

While we've accomplished #2 and #3 to a limited extent, the full package is highly unlikely, and the stability of Huxley's system also required that every single person be useful to the economy. Huxley did not predict automation at all.

Of the authors I've read, Asimov's Robots series offers the closest prediction of what an automated society will look like, in the form of the Spacers.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I believe we'll get communism and a rise in artists doing all manner of pointless things. Philosopher will become a common job. I'm not saying this is desirable. But this is what I think will happen.

Machines will come to dominate the humanities as well actually. In part they're already doing this, with computers generating pieces of music and visual art indistinguishable from those made by humans.

I predict something closer to Brave New World actually, where people will find that they are functionally obsolete in virtually every regard and will resign themselves to a long, comfortable, but ultimately vapid and pointless existence. From there, we either acheive some sort of planet-wide ego death or we wage war upon the machines and their keepers out of a pathological need to justify our own being

I don't think we'll get a Brave New World precisely for the reasons Huxley gives in the book. The pursuit of nothing but pleasure is empty. We need a higher meaning to our lives. Which, I suspect, is the real reason why religion persists today, in spite of it being... well... wrong.

Nah... the robot run future is going to get weird.

 

[LordKiran]

Machines will come to dominate the humanities as well actually. In part they're already doing this, with computers generating pieces of music and visual art indistinguishable from those made by humans.

I predict something closer to Brave New World actually, where people will find that they are functionally obsolete in virtually every regard and will resign themselves to a long, comfortable, but ultimately vapid and pointless existence. From there, we either acheive some sort of planet-wide ego death or we wage war upon the machines and their keepers out of a pathological need to justify our own being

The society of Brave New World accomplished stability with several techniques:

1. The working class were genetically identical to their workmates to ensure workplace harmony
2. People were conditioned from conception to prefer their assigned occupation and living conditions
3. People were conditioned to prefer 'vapid and pointless' entertainment and were averse to doing things like pondering their existence.
4. The entire population was addicted to (and paid with) a potent psychoactive drug

While we've accomplished #2 and #3 to a limited extent, the full package is highly unlikely, and the stability of Huxley's system also required that every single person be useful to the economy. Huxley did not predict automation at all.

Of the authors I've read, Asimov's Robots series offers the closest prediction of what an automated society will look like, in the form of the Spacers.

In a broader way, Brave new World is about a society that looks Utopian on the outside but beneath the surface is a nihilistic nightmare where people exist for no greater purpose than for that of their assigned role and to satisfy their base wants. I wasn't touching on the technicals for how Huxley's Brave New World came to be because they're not what I'm driving at. The people in BNW aren't just cogs mindlessly plodding away at their assigned role, they're also comparable to animals in a way. They have no desire to affirm themselves as individuals or self-actualize through the formation of a greater purpose. They just thoughtlessly exist from moment to moment, drowning themselves in drugs and sex and never bothering to ask for something beyond that. THAT is the future that awaits us as I see it.

 

[LordKiran]

Machines will come to dominate the humanities as well actually. In part they're already doing this, with computers generating pieces of music and visual art indistinguishable from those made by humans.

I predict something closer to Brave New World actually, where people will find that they are functionally obsolete in virtually every regard and will resign themselves to a long, comfortable, but ultimately vapid and pointless existence. From there, we either acheive some sort of planet-wide ego death or we wage war upon the machines and their keepers out of a pathological need to justify our own being

I don't think we'll get a Brave New World precisely for the reasons Huxley gives in the book. The pursuit of nothing but pleasure is empty. We need a higher meaning to our lives. Which, I suspect, is the real reason why religion persists today, in spite of it being... well... wrong.

Nah... the robot run future is going to get weird.

Do you think organized religion can resurge due to automation?

 

[bigfield]

The society of Brave New World accomplished stability with several techniques:

1. The working class were genetically identical to their workmates to ensure workplace harmony
2. People were conditioned from conception to prefer their assigned occupation and living conditions
3. People were conditioned to prefer 'vapid and pointless' entertainment and were averse to doing things like pondering their existence.
4. The entire population was addicted to (and paid with) a potent psychoactive drug

While we've accomplished #2 and #3 to a limited extent, the full package is highly unlikely, and the stability of Huxley's system also required that every single person be useful to the economy. Huxley did not predict automation at all.

Of the authors I've read, Asimov's Robots series offers the closest prediction of what an automated society will look like, in the form of the Spacers.

In a broader way, Brave new World is about a society that looks Utopian on the outside but beneath the surface is a nihilistic nightmare where people exist for no greater purpose than for that of their assigned role and to satisfy their base wants. I wasn't touching on the technicals for how Huxley's Brave New World came to be because they're not what I'm driving at. The people in BNW aren't just cogs mindlessly plodding away at their assigned role, they're also comparable to animals in a way. They have no desire to affirm themselves as individuals or self-actualize through the formation of a greater purpose. They just thoughtlessly exist from moment to moment, drowning themselves in drugs and sex and never bothering to ask for something beyond that. THAT is the future that awaits us as I see it.

The Savage's speech to the World Controller argues for the greater purpose, but he doesn't give any reason why striving for a greater purpose would be better for the people than their current predestined existence. The World Controller argues that the world is stable and people are happy. The society of Brave New World is actually a desirable existence for many people; it is only a minority, represented Bernard, Heimholtz. the Savage and Mond, who suffer existential angst and aren't satisfied with sex, drugs and sports.

The key difference between BNW and reality is that the distracted majority will not live happily ever after in reality. Huxley imagined a world were everyone had an economic role, but in the real world automation will take the place of most of Huxley's Gammas, Deltas and Epsilons and some of the Alphas and Betas. Society simply won't donate them the means to permanently anaesthetise themselves will sports, sex and drugs.

I agree with DBT's prediction that there will be period of upheaval, represented with the impoverishment of the formerly-working class. When this happened during the industrial revolution it led to the rise of the socialist movement to improve working conditions. Next time around, it won't be for working conditions; it will be for living conditions.

And who knows--perhaps we will have savage reservations where people can work for a living.