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Best political system (and how to get there).

No, people could deposit as much money in commercial banks as they want to, but the economy would be less dependent on commercial lending.


That would be a political decision. A functional finance model just puts the option on the table without it being ruled out by bogus budget constraints.

Yea, I'm just 100% opposed to this. Bankers should be neutral. I want my company to be judged on our performances and our credit worthiness. I don't want to be judged on my loyalty to the local government czar.

Now that is a fair point. There's obvious scope for corruption and cronyism.

I think there are at least partial ways to mitigate it : performance-related rewards/promotion for the "czars"; startups go it alone once up and running; non-public funding still no less available. But... yeah.

Again : private sector lenders overwhelmingly fund competition for existing real estate and asset bubbles which actually damage the real economy. I'd rather the private sector took care of itself but it ain't doing so.

Again : funding startups would be a small - and not necessary - part of it (on which you have fixated). A functional finance model just puts the option on the table. I'm mainly talking about funding public goods i.e. the sort of things Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn propose, which get slapped down with deficit-hysteria.

Actually, banks do no like lending for speculative purposes. In fact, many banks are totally out of that market. I'm a strong borrower, but my bank would not finance my purchase of bare land unless I had a plan to build a new commercial building on it within 6 months. Below is a link that shows the portfolio of the largest five US banks:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...folios-of-the-largest-u-s-banks/#32727d06759a

According to the link, CRE loans (commercial non-owned occupied loans) make up only about 10.5% of all bank loans. Commercial banks mostly lend for lines of credit, mortgages, equipment purchases, owner occupied buildings and etc.
 
Now that is a fair point. There's obvious scope for corruption and cronyism.

I think there are at least partial ways to mitigate it : performance-related rewards/promotion for the "czars"; startups go it alone once up and running; non-public funding still no less available. But... yeah.

Again : private sector lenders overwhelmingly fund competition for existing real estate and asset bubbles which actually damage the real economy. I'd rather the private sector took care of itself but it ain't doing so.

Again : funding startups would be a small - and not necessary - part of it (on which you have fixated). A functional finance model just puts the option on the table. I'm mainly talking about funding public goods i.e. the sort of things Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn propose, which get slapped down with deficit-hysteria.

Actually, banks do no like lending for speculative purposes.
Well actually they should if it means productive investment. If they're doing to little of it, gov't should step in and has done before. Successfully.

In fact, many banks are totally out of that market. I'm a strong borrower, but my bank would not finance my purchase of bare land unless I had a plan to build a new commercial building on it within 6 months. Below is a link that shows the portfolio of the largest five US banks:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...folios-of-the-largest-u-s-banks/#32727d06759a

According to the link, CRE loans (commercial non-owned occupied loans) make up only about 10.5% of all bank loans. Commercial banks mostly lend for lines of credit, mortgages, equipment purchases, owner occupied buildings and etc.

Yep - mostly bidding up existing real estate and consumer credit with too little productive investment.

What yer link doesn't show is that the loans are mostly not transfers from savers but "double entries" against borrowers' future incomes - by definition speculative. Plus interest.

Nor does it show the ~$1.3 quadrillion of various derivatives in the global financial system, as against ~$75 trillion global GDP. The money supply to the real economy should be hermetically sealed from that.
 
Well actually they should if it means productive investment. If they're doing to little of it, gov't should step in and has done before. Successfully.

In fact, many banks are totally out of that market. I'm a strong borrower, but my bank would not finance my purchase of bare land unless I had a plan to build a new commercial building on it within 6 months. Below is a link that shows the portfolio of the largest five US banks:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...folios-of-the-largest-u-s-banks/#32727d06759a

According to the link, CRE loans (commercial non-owned occupied loans) make up only about 10.5% of all bank loans. Commercial banks mostly lend for lines of credit, mortgages, equipment purchases, owner occupied buildings and etc.

Yep - mostly bidding up existing real estate and consumer credit with too little productive investment.

What yer link doesn't show is that the loans are mostly not transfers from savers but "double entries" against borrowers' future incomes - by definition speculative. Plus interest.

Nor does it show the ~$1.3 quadrillion of various derivatives in the global financial system, as against ~$75 trillion global GDP. The money supply to the real economy should be hermetically sealed from that.

Yea, I just realized that we're speaking totally different languages. In the banking world, speculation means that a loan would be repaid from increases in value. Banks always identify the primary sources of cash flow. For my company, the primary source of cash flow are the rents and net income that my company generates. This is not speculation, it's actual cash flow. But speculators buying bare land are relying on the higher future value that will pay off the future loan.

Anyway, my big issue in this thread is that using the public sector to make commercial loans is wasting an already available asset: deposits. I think that the government funds could have a much better use.
 
Well actually they should if it means productive investment. If they're doing to little of it, gov't should step in and has done before. Successfully.

In fact, many banks are totally out of that market. I'm a strong borrower, but my bank would not finance my purchase of bare land unless I had a plan to build a new commercial building on it within 6 months. Below is a link that shows the portfolio of the largest five US banks:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...folios-of-the-largest-u-s-banks/#32727d06759a

According to the link, CRE loans (commercial non-owned occupied loans) make up only about 10.5% of all bank loans. Commercial banks mostly lend for lines of credit, mortgages, equipment purchases, owner occupied buildings and etc.

Yep - mostly bidding up existing real estate and consumer credit with too little productive investment.

What yer link doesn't show is that the loans are mostly not transfers from savers but "double entries" against borrowers' future incomes - by definition speculative. Plus interest.

Nor does it show the ~$1.3 quadrillion of various derivatives in the global financial system, as against ~$75 trillion global GDP. The money supply to the real economy should be hermetically sealed from that.

Yea, I just realized that we're speaking totally different languages. In the banking world, speculation means that a loan would be repaid from increases in value. Banks always identify the primary sources of cash flow. For my company, the primary source of cash flow are the rents and net income that my company generates. This is not speculation, it's actual cash flow. But speculators buying bare land are relying on the higher future value that will pay off the future loan.

Anyway, my big issue in this thread is that using the public sector to make commercial loans is wasting an already available asset: deposits.
Not unless you dispute that deposits are "double entries" against borrowers' future income, absent base money from govt. All investment coming from "deposits" is otherwise inherently unstable. Absent base money from gov't, the productive private sector can never be out of debt to private lenders. That's actually workable as long as money is circulating rapidly enough, but recessions become intractable without govt deficits (i.e. net spending by the currency issuer)

I think that the government funds could have a much better use.
...whooosh...point going over your head.
 
That would be a political decision. A functional finance model just puts the option on the table without it being ruled out by bogus budget constraints.

And a functional electric grid hooks up any consumer who needs it without seeing if there are enough generators.

And a functional water system hooks up any consumer who needs it without seeing if there is water in the wells.

:rolleyes: no, they'd be real constraints, not bogus ones.

Budgets are just as real a constraint as the others I listed.
 
The following from Prof. Simon Wren-Lewis (one of Britain's most respected economists) is instructive. Not about how to get there but what the big obstacle is. It concerns the UK, but the same applies in the US ..with bells on.

He calls it "mediamacro", AKA the household fallacy :

"Mediamacro is how the macroeconomics of fiscal policy is presented in the media as if the government was a household. It is as if Keynes, and the General Theory that is often said to have begun macroeconomics as a discipline, had never existed. What every first year economics text book tells students is that the government is not like a household.

Mediamacro has become so ingrained in the UK media for two reasons. The first is that one of the two main political parties, and their associated press arm, have pushed it for all it's worth, while the other political party has not challenged the idea in any systematic way. But if you ask many Labour MPs why they have not challenged it they will say that doing so is too difficult. This leads to the second reason.

Most political journalists are not economists. How households work they do understand, but the idea of using fiscal policy in a recession to support the economy is more difficult for them. What is true for political journalists is also true for most voters, and journalists wish to keep it simple and understandable only reinforces mediamacro. The same thing influences politicians who listen to focus groups."

Unfortunately this gross error has been dominant in British government economic thinking for several decades now - the last Conservative PM to think outside that particuarly stupid box was grocer Heath, and his dumping as party leader in favour of Maggie led to a forty plus year domination of Tory mediamacro. It was so successful in getting the attention of the voters, who were desperate for something that appeared to 'make sense' in their own terms, that the Labour party followed suit - John Smith was the last Labour leader until Corbyn to be prepared to challenge this crazy idea*.

To every problem, there is a solution that is obvious, simple, easily explained and understood, and completely wrong. Mediamacro is just such an idea; And in a representative democracy, opposing policies based on simple-but-wrong ideas that the public widely accept is a brave man's game - and as anyone who has seen 'Yes, Minister' knows, telling a minister or PM that his policies are 'brave' is enough to put a shiver down his spine (or what passes for one amongst Her Majesty's Government, most members of whom are notable for the absence of any backbone).

Of course, this shithouse idea is far from limited to the United Kingdom, and is popular in the USA on both sides of their political divide, and also amongst both major political camps in Australia. I have no idea how to kill it - it has just the wrong combination of truthiness to be almost impossible to dislodge from voters' brains.






*Which is not to say that either man has or had great economic ideas - just that they happen not to subscribe to the modern mania for this particular awful economic idea.
 
:rolleyes: good thing no one's suggesting it then.

So you're no one?

Because that's what you're suggesting.

"Loan money into existence" is the standard crackpot attack on how banks function.

OK, you tell me what you think I mean by that and why you think it's wrong.

Then I'll tell you what I mean and we'll do a little comparison of the two, then compare and contrast with some authoritative descriptions.

Banks move money around, they do not create it. This looks like more money but we are really seeing the same dollar over and over.
 
Scandinavian countries appear to be doing quite well on the social happiness scale. They must be doing something right.

I think it's just the welfare in combination with free higher education. If you're a fuckup here there's nobody to blame but yourself. If your parents want to have you in their lives they need to be nice to you. They've got zero power. You're also given an infinite second chances in life... by the government. Nobody is a victim by their circumstances and forced to live a life they don't want to live. At any time you can just say "fuck this shit", drop everything and walk away.

But there's one more thing that makes this place special. It's "jante". We're all told that we're not special. Being mediocre is not only acceptable, it's desirable. If you're arrogant we'll tear you down. If you're weak we'll lift you up. It's bad for a lot of reasons. But I think it mitigates resentment. There's a feeling here that everybody's life is about as shitty. We have low expectations from life.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Jante
 
The following from Prof. Simon Wren-Lewis (one of Britain's most respected economists) is instructive. Not about how to get there but what the big obstacle is. It concerns the UK, but the same applies in the US ..with bells on.

He calls it "mediamacro", AKA the household fallacy :

"Mediamacro is how the macroeconomics of fiscal policy is presented in the media as if the government was a household. It is as if Keynes, and the General Theory that is often said to have begun macroeconomics as a discipline, had never existed. What every first year economics text book tells students is that the government is not like a household.

Mediamacro has become so ingrained in the UK media for two reasons. The first is that one of the two main political parties, and their associated press arm, have pushed it for all it's worth, while the other political party has not challenged the idea in any systematic way. But if you ask many Labour MPs why they have not challenged it they will say that doing so is too difficult. This leads to the second reason.

Most political journalists are not economists. How households work they do understand, but the idea of using fiscal policy in a recession to support the economy is more difficult for them. What is true for political journalists is also true for most voters, and journalists wish to keep it simple and understandable only reinforces mediamacro. The same thing influences politicians who listen to focus groups."

Unfortunately this gross error has been dominant in British government economic thinking for several decades now - the last Conservative PM to think outside that particuarly stupid box was grocer Heath, and his dumping as party leader in favour of Maggie led to a forty plus year domination of Tory mediamacro. It was so successful in getting the attention of the voters, who were desperate for something that appeared to 'make sense' in their own terms, that the Labour party followed suit - John Smith was the last Labour leader until Corbyn to be prepared to challenge this crazy idea*.

To every problem, there is a solution that is obvious, simple, easily explained and understood, and completely wrong. Mediamacro is just such an idea; And in a representative democracy, opposing policies based on simple-but-wrong ideas that the public widely accept is a brave man's game - and as anyone who has seen 'Yes, Minister' knows, telling a minister or PM that his policies are 'brave' is enough to put a shiver down his spine (or what passes for one amongst Her Majesty's Government, most members of whom are notable for the absence of any backbone).

Of course, this shithouse idea is far from limited to the United Kingdom, and is popular in the USA on both sides of their political divide, and also amongst both major political camps in Australia. I have no idea how to kill it - it has just the wrong combination of truthiness to be almost impossible to dislodge from voters' brains.

I think a lot of people had an ah-ha moment in 2008 when govts started bailing out the banks they supposedly need to borrow from. Or at least a WTF moment. Mediamacro is full of logical holes and occasionally some light gets in :

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZNwdcESn90[/YOUTUBE]​
 
OK, you tell me what you think I mean by that and why you think it's wrong.

Then I'll tell you what I mean and we'll do a little comparison of the two, then compare and contrast with some authoritative descriptions.

Banks move money around, they do not create it. This looks like more money but we are really seeing the same dollar over and over.

Banks create credit or demand for money. The money itself comes from the Fed, directed by the Treasury.
 
OK, you tell me what you think I mean by that and why you think it's wrong.

Then I'll tell you what I mean and we'll do a little comparison of the two, then compare and contrast with some authoritative descriptions.

Banks move money around, they do not create it. This looks like more money but we are really seeing the same dollar over and over.

Some reading :

Money Creation in the Modern Economy said:
In the modern economy, most money takes the form of bank deposits. But how those bank deposits are created is often misunderstood. The principal way in which they are created is through commercial banks making loans: whenever a bank makes a loan, it creates a deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money. This description of how money is created differs from story found in some economics textbooks.

Lord Adair Turner (then) Chairman of the Financial Services Authority said:
The financial crisis of 2007/08 occurred because we failed to constrain the private financial system’s creation of private credit and money.

[...]

Instability mostly comes from the interface between the fact that the banks (or shadow banks) can create credit, money, and purchasing power in infinite quantities if we don’t constrain them, and the fact that credit is primarily created to fund the purchase of urban real estate and land, which is somewhat fixed in supply.

Prof. Richard Werner said:
This paper presents the first empirical evidence in the history of banking on the question of whether banks can create money out of nothing. The banking crisis has revived interest in this issue, but it had remained unsettled. Three hypotheses are recognised in the literature. According to the financial intermediation theory of banking, banks are merely intermediaries like other non-bank financial institutions, collecting deposits that are then lent out. According to the fractional reserve theory of banking, individual banks are mere financial intermediaries that cannot create money, but collectively they end up creating money through systemic interaction. A third theory maintains that each individual bank has the power to create money ‘out of nothing’ and does so when it extends credit (the credit creation theory of banking). The question which of the theories is correct has far-reaching implications for research and policy. Surprisingly, despite the longstanding controversy, until now no empirical study has tested the theories. This is the contribution of the present paper. An empirical test is conducted, whereby money is borrowed from a cooperating bank, while its internal records are being monitored, to establish whether in the process of making the loan available to the borrower, the bank transfers these funds from other accounts within or outside the bank, or whether they are newly created. This study establishes for the first time empirically that banks individually create money out of nothing.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521914001070

Feel free to give an example of what you mean.
 
Some reading :

Money Creation in the Modern Economy said:
In the modern economy, most money takes the form of bank deposits. But how those bank deposits are created is often misunderstood. The principal way in which they are created is through commercial banks making loans: whenever a bank makes a loan, it creates a deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money. This description of how money is created differs from story found in some economics textbooks.

Lord Adair Turner (then) Chairman of the Financial Services Authority said:
The financial crisis of 2007/08 occurred because we failed to constrain the private financial system’s creation of private credit and money.

[...]

Instability mostly comes from the interface between the fact that the banks (or shadow banks) can create credit, money, and purchasing power in infinite quantities if we don’t constrain them, and the fact that credit is primarily created to fund the purchase of urban real estate and land, which is somewhat fixed in supply.

Prof. Richard Werner said:
This paper presents the first empirical evidence in the history of banking on the question of whether banks can create money out of nothing. The banking crisis has revived interest in this issue, but it had remained unsettled. Three hypotheses are recognised in the literature. According to the financial intermediation theory of banking, banks are merely intermediaries like other non-bank financial institutions, collecting deposits that are then lent out. According to the fractional reserve theory of banking, individual banks are mere financial intermediaries that cannot create money, but collectively they end up creating money through systemic interaction. A third theory maintains that each individual bank has the power to create money ‘out of nothing’ and does so when it extends credit (the credit creation theory of banking). The question which of the theories is correct has far-reaching implications for research and policy. Surprisingly, despite the longstanding controversy, until now no empirical study has tested the theories. This is the contribution of the present paper. An empirical test is conducted, whereby money is borrowed from a cooperating bank, while its internal records are being monitored, to establish whether in the process of making the loan available to the borrower, the bank transfers these funds from other accounts within or outside the bank, or whether they are newly created. This study establishes for the first time empirically that banks individually create money out of nothing.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521914001070

Feel free to give an example of what you mean.

I'm far from an expert on Werner, but his policies seem like they would lead to extreme hyperinflation. And I just don't see the advantage. If we want to prevent banks from going crazy, just increase their capital requirements and prevent them from becoming too concentrated.
 
No, that's not what "direct democracy" is about. It could easily be structured to do the opposite, to reduce the swinging back and forth which we have now, with the Reds and Blues negating and repealing whatever the other side does, or the next administration undoing what the previous administration did.

The swings are what happens when popular opinion changes. The years between elections in our system greatly reduces the swings.

If the current jury system functions OK to settle court cases, some similar system could function OK to deal with public policy matters.

But look at what happens--they spend days being presented both sides of the issue before making a decision. You try to run a country that way and all people will do is spend time learning about the issues.

Don't juries have a "fair amount of understanding" when they decide on a case? There's no reason to say ordinary citizens cannot have a "fair understanding" of something. The process has to be similar to the way juries must first have all the facts and hear all the arguments, and only then do they decide on it.

Time.

So we need a Direct Democracy system which is structured similarly to the way the jury system works, where the citizens making the decision have complete information and not just the sound bytes from the latest headline news. Then the result will not be the simple answer, but a reasonable judgment based on all the evidence.

I'll vote for it when we devise a system of having 1000 hours per day.

Yes they do, just like a jury has time to dig into the facts of a case it is hearing. We don't need ALL the voters to decide on every matter. What we need is to have a group of ordinary citizens (or a few groups) decide on each matter and hear all the facts on it, and make a decision based on all that information, rather than decide based on a few speeches from politicians using their charismatic skill to manipulate an audience with slogans and lies and half-truths.

In other words, a representative democracy. Strange how that looks like what we have.

The vast majority of them are utter crap, even when they appear to do something good.

No, you're grossly exaggerating. They are a mixed bag, and much could be done to clean up the initiative process. It's better to improve the current system than abolish it. It would be an insult to all citizens to take away any initiative process and tell citizens in effect that they are too stupid to ever make any decisions directly on issues, and that all they're good for is to put their mark next to the name of the demagogue of their choice on a piece of paper. And other than this they should shut up and let the elected demagogues do all the thinking.

I do agree the initiative process should remain. However, I would like to see a couple of changes: 1) Once they gather enough signatures it goes before the Attorney General who can nix things which are unconstitutional or impossible. 2) Here both sides get to present a short piece about the measure on the ballot. I would like to see a third bit from the Attorney General pointing out possible loopholes. (For example, a local tax measure here that directed the revenue to education. The legislature could simply reduce other education funding by that amount, the earmark was in reality useless.)

Even the ones that pass are often crap.

Like the laws passed by elected legislators often are. The answer is to improve the process, not tell citizens they're nothing but cattle who can only be manipulated and herded into line by their speech-maker demagogues, who are the only ones capable of making decisions and so must lead 99.9% of us around by the nose.

I'm showing what people vote for. Locally we were forced to put in a one-purpose-only rule on initiatives after the lawyers tried to slip one through. The first part of the measure looked like it helped the people with insurance costs, never mind it was certain to be struck down by the courts. I forget exactly what the second half did but it would have been a godsend to the trial lawyers.
 
It was Nixon who took us off the gold system.

Now there need not be anything behind money.

Wealth is an agreed upon illusion.

When you base money on something like god you tie the economy to that something.

Gold strike? Major inflation time.

No gold strike but the economy grows? Deflation--and deflation is harmful to the economy.

The economy was more unstable in the gold era than in the fiat money era.
 
But look at what happens--they spend days being presented both sides of the issue before making a decision. You try to run a country that way and all people will do is spend time learning about the issues.

...and the award for "Most implausible hypothesis in history" goes to...
 
:rolleyes: no, they'd be real constraints, not bogus ones.

Budgets are just as real a constraint as the others I listed.

Yeah coz govt can't create money. And neither can banks. It just grows on rich people, right?

:rolleyes: no, they'd be real constraints, not bogus ones.

Budgets are just as real a constraint as the others I listed.

Budget constraints are self imposed IF the real resources are available.

The resources are obtained through taxes--they come out of the pockets of those you're trying to benefit.
 
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