boneyard bill predicts 2014 elections.

[Jimmy Higgins]

"Cornerstone support?" or ardent wishful thinking?

I swear I just read an article where ACA was polling well in electoral polls. I may have read it wrong.

 

[boneyard bill]

"Cornerstone support?" or ardent wishful thinking?

I swear I just read an article where ACA was polling well in electoral polls. I may have read it wrong.

I have read the same things as Max Parrish, but since has already posted the data I see no reason to provide additional back-up. Not only is Obamacare unpopular, so is Obama. Surely you haven't seen polls that show otherwise on that point. That is why Landrieu and others are running as far away from Obama as possible. But Grimes in Kentucky has probably gone too far in refusing even to say who she voted for in 2012. She has thus succeeded in making herself, rather than Obama, the issue.

A few other notes:

Brown seems to be gaining quickly on Shaheen in New Hampshire. Shaheen is a popular former Governor and seemed to be a popular Senator. If Obama were not in the White House she probably would easily be re-elected, but Obama is in the White House and New Hampshire suddenly looks like it might be in play. This could be a disaster for the White House if Dems lose some unexpected races.

Third party candidates may play a very significant part and mostly in ways that would hurt Republicans. A Libertarian candidate is pulling significant support in North Carolina and most of that is probably coming from Tillis. Likewise in Alaska. Libertarians aren't likely to pull more than 1 or 2% by election day, but these races are close enough that that could make a difference.

Meanwhile, in South Dakota a conservative candidate running as an independent was pulling 10% in a recent poll. Larry Pressler the former GOP candidate running as an independent wasn't expected to affect the race much. He was a fairly liberal Republican who was expected to take support away from the major candidates more or less evenly. But Governor Rounds loss of support to the conservative wing puts the other candidates within range. There seems to be a possibility that even Pressler could win this as an independent, however, so far most prognosticators still put this in the GOP category, but with two weeks left there is still time for a significant change.

 

[maxparrish]

"Cornerstone support?" or ardent wishful thinking?

I swear I just read an article where ACA was polling well in electoral polls. I may have read it wrong.

I don't doubt that you read an article that claimed such, but given lack of integrity in the contemporary MSM press one must be take such tag line characterizations as worthless UNLESS it is accompanied by supporting detail. If you find the source again, please let us know. I would be curious on how the author came up with this (especially given that the Kaiser survey folk are ACA supporters, yet found public support for it in the minority).

 

[Nice Squirrel]

nm

 

[maxparrish]

Actually its getting even MORE difficult to predict. The good, the bad, and the ugly (depending on your perspective).

Iowa seems far more likely to go GOP as Ernst is clearly in charge of the discourse.
Colorado keeps moving towards the GOP, with the margin growing in their favor by 4 points (but uncertain due to voter corruption and ground game of Dems).
Kansas is (I think) still a toss-up .
Georgia has become a tossup or leans D, with Nunn (D) leading one to three points.
New Hampshire moves from leans Dem to now a tossup, with Brown (R) possibly up by a point.
Arkansas is going GOP
LA - likely will got to a run-off, but GOP is likely the winner.
Montana, SD, and Kentucky are going GOP.
North Carolina - is no longer leaning Dem, it is now a tossup.

So it is entirely possible the GOP will lose Kansas and Georgia, but may take NH and NC - who would have thought?

"The coin flip" for control is going to make it an interesting election night.

PS - And given Georgia and La. election law, both are likely going to require a runoff (the Georgia runoff will be in January!)

 

[boneyard bill]

Actually its getting even MORE difficult to predict. The good, the bad, and the ugly (depending on your perspective).

Iowa seems far more likely to go GOP as Ernst is clearly in charge of the discourse.
Colorado keeps moving towards the GOP, with the margin growing in their favor by 4 points (but uncertain due to voter corruption and ground game of Dems).
Kansas is (I think) still a toss-up .
Georgia has become a tossup or leans D, with Nunn (D) leading one to three points.
New Hampshire moves from leans Dem to now a tossup, with Brown (R) possibly up by a point.
Arkansas is going GOP
LA - likely will got to a run-off, but GOP is likely the winner.
Montana, SD, and Kentucky are going GOP.
North Carolina - is no longer leaning Dem, it is now a tossup.

So it is entirely possible the GOP will lose Kansas and Georgia, but may take NH and NC - who would have thought?

"The coin flip" for control is going to make it an interesting election night.

PS - And given Georgia and La. election law, both are likely going to require a runoff (the Georgia runoff will be in January!)

I think Cassidy has enough momentum that he could pull it out without a run-off. A run-off in Georgia could create real problems, especially if it's the vote that would, or could, decide the majority while people like Orman and Angus King wait on the sidelines. The last poll I saw still had Perdue ahead in Georgia but by a tiny amount.

Larry Pressler could also emerge as an independent in South Dakota which just add that much more to the uncertainty although Rounds still appears to be ahead, but there's a lot of campaigning yet to go.

 

[maxparrish]

Actually its getting even MORE difficult to predict. The good, the bad, and the ugly (depending on your perspective).

Iowa seems far more likely to go GOP as Ernst is clearly in charge of the discourse.
Colorado keeps moving towards the GOP, with the margin growing in their favor by 4 points (but uncertain due to voter corruption and ground game of Dems).
Kansas is (I think) still a toss-up .
Georgia has become a tossup or leans D, with Nunn (D) leading one to three points.
New Hampshire moves from leans Dem to now a tossup, with Brown (R) possibly up by a point.
Arkansas is going GOP
LA - likely will got to a run-off, but GOP is likely the winner.
Montana, SD, and Kentucky are going GOP.
North Carolina - is no longer leaning Dem, it is now a tossup.

So it is entirely possible the GOP will lose Kansas and Georgia, but may take NH and NC - who would have thought?

"The coin flip" for control is going to make it an interesting election night.

PS - And given Georgia and La. election law, both are likely going to require a runoff (the Georgia runoff will be in January!)

I think Cassidy has enough momentum that he could pull it out without a run-off. A run-off in Georgia could create real problems, especially if it's the vote that would, or could, decide the majority while people like Orman and Angus King wait on the sidelines. The last poll I saw still had Perdue ahead in Georgia but by a tiny amount.

Larry Pressler could also emerge as an independent in South Dakota which just add that much more to the uncertainty although Rounds still appears to be ahead, but there's a lot of campaigning yet to go.

And if it goes to runoffs to decide who gets the Senate, Obama has some tough choices to make. He is well aware that if he imposes his imperial decree of amnesty and work permits for illegals against the will of the people and the law (not that he cares about the democratic will) contested Senate seats will go GOP.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Polling isn't swaying much towards the left. Democrats may very well get the Georgia seat, but lose control of the Senate.

Odd, the voting public seem upset with Obama, yet want to give more power back to the party that has accomplished even less than Obama. They are upset about the health insurance they didn't lose, the Ebola they didn't contract, and an economy that has created no jobs that has created millions of jobs since 2010.

 

[maxparrish]

Polling isn't swaying much towards the left. Democrats may very well get the Georgia seat, but lose control of the Senate.

Odd, the voting public seem upset with Obama, yet want to give more power back to the party that has accomplished even less than Obama. They are upset about the health insurance they didn't lose, the Ebola they didn't contract, and an economy that has created no jobs that has created millions of jobs since 2010.

Polling at this point, to my mind, suggests increased uncertainty of outcome. Georgia and Kansas seem very dicey for the GOP, and so does Kentucky. On the other hand, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado are very dicey for the Dem's. As I have thought for months, it could be 5 to 8 Senate seat gains for the GOP, which means it is a tossup (slightly leaning GOP for control of the Senate...but only by a hair).

Finally, always remember that those who are 'upset' are those in the margin - most people will vote the way they always vote. No doubt some of those folk in the margin are those 5 to 10 percent of the voters directly affected by Obamacare, and a portion of their friends or relations so affected. Another portion may be those who have dropped out of the labor market and are not reflected in the unemployment stats. And others in the margin will be those who believed Obama was the "hope and change" guy. And finally, it is also part of those African-American tribalists that are not interested in white candidates and sit out elections where Obama is not running.

And the prior scare tactic for Democrats are failing; "The War Against Women" theme is falling flat, and the older 'Rush Limbaugh hates cripples' theme is too worn out (and the Koch brothers demonology never caught fire).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Polling isn't swaying much towards the left. Democrats may very well get the Georgia seat, but lose control of the Senate.

Odd, the voting public seem upset with Obama, yet want to give more power back to the party that has accomplished even less than Obama. They are upset about the health insurance they didn't lose, the Ebola they didn't contract, and an economy that has created no jobs that has created millions of jobs since 2010.

Polling at this point, to my mind, suggests increased uncertainty of outcome. Georgia and Kansas seem very dicey for the GOP, and so does Kentucky.

Only Georgia seems possible.

On the other hand, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado are very dicey for the Dem's.

Iowa, Colorado seem more dicey than the other two. I just still couldn't see how the Dems could trade New Hampshire for Georgia.

As I have thought for months, it could be 5 to 8 Senate seat gains for the GOP, which means it is a tossup (slightly leaning GOP for control of the Senate...but only by a hair).

It does look that way.

Finally, always remember that those who are 'upset' are those in the margin - most people will vote the way they always vote. No doubt some of those folk in the margin are those 5 to 10 percent of the voters directly affected by Obamacare, and a portion of their friends or relations so affected. Another portion may be those who have dropped out of the labor market and are not reflected in the unemployment stats. And others in the margin will be those who believed Obama was the "hope and change" guy. And finally, it is also part of those African-American tribalists that are not interested in white candidates and sit out elections where Obama is not running.

And the prior scare tactic for Democrats are failing; "The War Against Women" theme is falling flat, and the older 'Rush Limbaugh hates cripples' theme is too worn out (and the Koch brothers demonology never caught fire).

Meanwhile, the scare tactics of Obama failing on Ebola, making all people lose their health care choices, etc... seem to have the required electoral traction.

Obama and the Democrats have done little to inspire confidence among the electorate. The Republicans have actually done quite enough to scare the fuck out of people and keep them from winning more seats.

This is oddly setting up for a potential another 4 years of Dem in the White House and total Republican control of Congress, or full control of Government back to the Republicans, after doing so unbelievably poor between most of 2001 and 2006. The Electorate is running the elections like the ownership is running the Cleveland Browns.

 

[maxparrish]

Polling at this point, to my mind, suggests increased uncertainty of outcome. Georgia and Kansas seem very dicey for the GOP, and so does Kentucky.

Only Georgia seems possible.

On the other hand, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado are very dicey for the Dem's.

Iowa, Colorado seem more dicey than the other two. I just still couldn't see how the Dems could trade New Hampshire for Georgia.

As I have thought for months, it could be 5 to 8 Senate seat gains for the GOP, which means it is a tossup (slightly leaning GOP for control of the Senate...but only by a hair).

It does look that way.

Finally, always remember that those who are 'upset' are those in the margin - most people will vote the way they always vote. No doubt some of those folk in the margin are those 5 to 10 percent of the voters directly affected by Obamacare, and a portion of their friends or relations so affected. Another portion may be those who have dropped out of the labor market and are not reflected in the unemployment stats. And others in the margin will be those who believed Obama was the "hope and change" guy. And finally, it is also part of those African-American tribalists that are not interested in white candidates and sit out elections where Obama is not running.

And the prior scare tactic for Democrats are failing; "The War Against Women" theme is falling flat, and the older 'Rush Limbaugh hates cripples' theme is too worn out (and the Koch brothers demonology never caught fire).

Meanwhile, the scare tactics of Obama failing on Ebola, making all people lose their health care choices, etc... seem to have the required electoral traction.

Obama and the Democrats have done little to inspire confidence among the electorate. The Republicans have actually done quite enough to scare the fuck out of people and keep them from winning more seats.

This is oddly setting up for a potential another 4 years of Dem in the White House and total Republican control of Congress, or full control of Government back to the Republicans, after doing so unbelievably poor between most of 2001 and 2006. The Electorate is running the elections like the ownership is running the Cleveland Browns.

You shouldn't be too concerned, Hillary will simply rule by proclamation. The Presidency has become increasingly "imperial", and in a few more administrations will essentially rule without Congress.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Only Georgia seems possible.

On the other hand, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado are very dicey for the Dem's.

Iowa, Colorado seem more dicey than the other two. I just still couldn't see how the Dems could trade New Hampshire for Georgia.

As I have thought for months, it could be 5 to 8 Senate seat gains for the GOP, which means it is a tossup (slightly leaning GOP for control of the Senate...but only by a hair).

It does look that way.

Finally, always remember that those who are 'upset' are those in the margin - most people will vote the way they always vote. No doubt some of those folk in the margin are those 5 to 10 percent of the voters directly affected by Obamacare, and a portion of their friends or relations so affected. Another portion may be those who have dropped out of the labor market and are not reflected in the unemployment stats. And others in the margin will be those who believed Obama was the "hope and change" guy. And finally, it is also part of those African-American tribalists that are not interested in white candidates and sit out elections where Obama is not running.

And the prior scare tactic for Democrats are failing; "The War Against Women" theme is falling flat, and the older 'Rush Limbaugh hates cripples' theme is too worn out (and the Koch brothers demonology never caught fire).

Meanwhile, the scare tactics of Obama failing on Ebola, making all people lose their health care choices, etc... seem to have the required electoral traction.

Obama and the Democrats have done little to inspire confidence among the electorate. The Republicans have actually done quite enough to scare the fuck out of people and keep them from winning more seats.

This is oddly setting up for a potential another 4 years of Dem in the White House and total Republican control of Congress, or full control of Government back to the Republicans, after doing so unbelievably poor between most of 2001 and 2006. The Electorate is running the elections like the ownership is running the Cleveland Browns.

You shouldn't be too concerned, Hillary will simply rule by proclamation. The Presidency has become increasingly "imperial", and in a few more administrations will essentially rule without Congress.

Actually that has been reduced a bit since '09. Obama has only recently needed to do that sort of crap because Congress is a failure, mainly due to the party that will be awarded for that failure that people are upset about.

And I still don't see Clinton being the next President.

 

[angelo]

Another Bush as the next president? Would the Americans really vote for another Bush?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Another Bush as the next president? Would the Americans really vote for another Bush?

They are about to possibly elect the Republicans back into charge of the Senate, despite everything the Republicans said and did in the last six years. So yes... they could. Because this Bush is the "Better Bush". "He should have run in 2000."

 

[boneyard bill]

Polling isn't swaying much towards the left. Democrats may very well get the Georgia seat, but lose control of the Senate.

Odd, the voting public seem upset with Obama, yet want to give more power back to the party that has accomplished even less than Obama. They are upset about the health insurance they didn't lose, the Ebola they didn't contract, and an economy that has created no jobs that has created millions of jobs since 2010.

A lot of people did lose health care or are forced to pay a whole lot more for it. Many young people who wanted health care can no longer afford it. Those who have gotten lower costs are largely subsidized by Medicaid. We could have done that without all the problems that have been created by Obamacare.

We have contracted ebola. Only a few people have it so far, but Obama let them in the country. Meanwhile, countries bordering Liberia and Sierra Leone are largely ebola free because the quaranteened people arriving from those countries.

We have lost tons of full-time jobs. Yes, we've gained part-time jobs but that doesn't add up to more employment overall. The way they count these things if you lose a full-time job and take two part-time jobs to make up for, it is counted as a net gain of one job.

 

[boneyard bill]

Polling isn't swaying much towards the left. Democrats may very well get the Georgia seat, but lose control of the Senate.

Odd, the voting public seem upset with Obama, yet want to give more power back to the party that has accomplished even less than Obama. They are upset about the health insurance they didn't lose, the Ebola they didn't contract, and an economy that has created no jobs that has created millions of jobs since 2010.

Polling at this point, to my mind, suggests increased uncertainty of outcome. Georgia and Kansas seem very dicey for the GOP, and so does Kentucky. On the other hand, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado are very dicey for the Dem's. As I have thought for months, it could be 5 to 8 Senate seat gains for the GOP, which means it is a tossup (slightly leaning GOP for control of the Senate...but only by a hair).

Finally, always remember that those who are 'upset' are those in the margin - most people will vote the way they always vote. No doubt some of those folk in the margin are those 5 to 10 percent of the voters directly affected by Obamacare, and a portion of their friends or relations so affected. Another portion may be those who have dropped out of the labor market and are not reflected in the unemployment stats. And others in the margin will be those who believed Obama was the "hope and change" guy. And finally, it is also part of those African-American tribalists that are not interested in white candidates and sit out elections where Obama is not running.

And the prior scare tactic for Democrats are failing; "The War Against Women" theme is falling flat, and the older 'Rush Limbaugh hates cripples' theme is too worn out (and the Koch brothers demonology never caught fire).

After the primaries Alaska was rated a toss-up. So was Arkansas, and Louisiana, which has a top-two system, was as well. Iowa and Colorado were thought to be leaning Democrat. Now Republicans are leading in all of those states. That's why I say that I see a shift in momentum towards the Republicans. Part of this is to be expected. An incumbent who hasn't won over undecided voters by the end of September can expect to find it more difficult in October. Poorly-funded opponents have saved their money for the final push. That's why now it appears that even Kay Hagan in North Carolina and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire might be in trouble.

 

[boneyard bill]

Another Bush as the next president? Would the Americans really vote for another Bush?

They are about to possibly elect the Republicans back into charge of the Senate, despite everything the Republicans said and did in the last six years. So yes... they could. Because this Bush is the "Better Bush". "He should have run in 2000."

The prospect of George W. Bush's policies actually being implemented competently is REALLY scary.

 

[maxparrish]

Polling at this point, to my mind, suggests increased uncertainty of outcome. Georgia and Kansas seem very dicey for the GOP, and so does Kentucky. On the other hand, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado are very dicey for the Dem's. As I have thought for months, it could be 5 to 8 Senate seat gains for the GOP, which means it is a tossup (slightly leaning GOP for control of the Senate...but only by a hair).

Finally, always remember that those who are 'upset' are those in the margin - most people will vote the way they always vote. No doubt some of those folk in the margin are those 5 to 10 percent of the voters directly affected by Obamacare, and a portion of their friends or relations so affected. Another portion may be those who have dropped out of the labor market and are not reflected in the unemployment stats. And others in the margin will be those who believed Obama was the "hope and change" guy. And finally, it is also part of those African-American tribalists that are not interested in white candidates and sit out elections where Obama is not running.

And the prior scare tactic for Democrats are failing; "The War Against Women" theme is falling flat, and the older 'Rush Limbaugh hates cripples' theme is too worn out (and the Koch brothers demonology never caught fire).

After the primaries Alaska was rated a toss-up. So was Arkansas, and Louisiana, which has a top-two system, was as well. Iowa and Colorado were thought to be leaning Democrat. Now Republicans are leading in all of those states. That's why I say that I see a shift in momentum towards the Republicans. Part of this is to be expected. An incumbent who hasn't won over undecided voters by the end of September can expect to find it more difficult in October. Poorly-funded opponents have saved their money for the final push. That's why now it appears that even Kay Hagan in North Carolina and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire might be in trouble.

While I generally agree, I find Hagan and Shaheen in a bit better position that the others. Hagan's campaign has done reasonably well manipulating tribalism and blood loyalties, running spots trying to connect North Carolina's Thom Tillis politics to Trayvon Martin's death. The point is to inflame racial anger and fear, and do a little race baiting. And unusually high early turnout among blacks suggest it is working.

And then it didn't hurt when some unknown group of Hagan operatives or supporters who, one Sunday, stuck flyers under the car wipers Cumberland County's black churchgoers - with a grainy old photo of a lynching on the cover, and the scaremongering that Obama (a black man) will be impeached if blacks don't vote. The front of the flier blared: “Kay Hagan doesn’t win! Obama’s impeachment will begin! Vote in 2014.”

Besides, there are plenty of women voting for Hagan's genetalia, so much so there is a significant gender gap in her favor.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Polling isn't swaying much towards the left. Democrats may very well get the Georgia seat, but lose control of the Senate.

Odd, the voting public seem upset with Obama, yet want to give more power back to the party that has accomplished even less than Obama. They are upset about the health insurance they didn't lose, the Ebola they didn't contract, and an economy that has created no jobs that has created millions of jobs since 2010.

A lot of people did lose health care or are forced to pay a whole lot more for it. Many young people who wanted health care can no longer afford it. Those who have gotten lower costs are largely subsidized by Medicaid. We could have done that without all the problems that have been created by Obamacare.

We have contracted ebola. Only a few people have it so far, but Obama let them in the country. Meanwhile, countries bordering Liberia and Sierra Leone are largely ebola free because the quaranteened people arriving from those countries.

0 American stateside deaths.

We have lost tons of full-time jobs. Yes, we've gained part-time jobs but that doesn't add up to more employment overall. The way they count these things if you lose a full-time job and take two part-time jobs to make up for, it is counted as a net gain of one job.

You know what I keep thinking of? All of those unions offering early retirement. Doctors being offered early retirement. Cops and firemen being offered early retirement. A significant number of people in the public sector retiring early because of cutbacks. Add to that... the Baby Boomers are retiring... you think all of this cutting wouldn't have a large effect on the job market?

 

[angelo]

Another Bush as the next president? Would the Americans really vote for another Bush?

They are about to possibly elect the Republicans back into charge of the Senate, despite everything the Republicans said and did in the last six years. So yes... they could. Because this Bush is the "Better Bush". "He should have run in 2000."

I'll take your word for it as I'm not that familiar with this Bush. I do know the First Bush senior wasn't a bad president. I'm also aware that Obama is pro Arab and anti Israel. The relationship between the Israeli PM and Obama administration has never been as low as it is at present. If Clinton were to run and win the Whitehouse this state of affairs will only get worst. It would be a case of sacrificing the Jewish state just to appease the Arab world.