boneyard bill
Veteran Member
I know you've all been waiting anxiously for my elections predictions. It's October now and very few races change much in the last month. Unfortunately, this is kind of a tough year because quite a few races are too close to call. And I know that such predictions are just a parlor game, but we all like to do it anyway. I won't bother listing the safe seats.
Open Democrat seats:
Just about everyone agrees that three Democrat open seats in red states will flip to Republican. Those are South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.
Iowa: Democrats expected to hold this seat with Rep. Bruce Braley while obscure Republicans battled it out for the nomination. But State Senator Jodi Ernst came on strong to capture the nomination in the primary and avoid a state convention battle. She's the kind of independent woman Republicans really like, an Iraq War veteran who grew up on a farm castrating hogs. She's also happens to be a really good campaigner who has stolen the limelight from the dry-as-dust Braley. Republicans will win this seat.
Michigan:
Former Secretary of State Terry Lynn Land looked pretty good early in this race which is one of the few where neither candidate has primary opposition. As a former state-wide office holder, Land may have benefitted early from her state-wide name recognition, but Representative Gary Peters has maintained a credible lead for some time now. Democrats will hold this seat.
So in 5 open seats, it looks like the Dems will win only one and the Republicans will pick up four.
Vulnerable Democrat incumbents:
Alaska:
Mark Begich has the advantage of incumbency and comes from a well-known Alaska political family. He's attacking Attorney-General Sullivan as a carpet-bagger. Unfortunately, lots of Alaskans are carpet baggers and Begich won his last race by a whopping 1% against an opponent who was under indictment. Alaska is a Republican state and the voters won't let Democrats forget that. Sullivan should pull this out.
Colorado:
Incumbent Senator Mark Udall has spent a ton of money on advertising and it has merely served to keep him in a dead heat with his Republican challenger, Congressman Cory Gardner. The less lavishly funded Gardner has been husbanding his money for the final stretch. With a more competitive advertising presence Gardner should win.
Arkansas:
Representative Tom Cotton is the neocons favorite neophyte. Young, handsome, with a military background in increasing Republican Arkansas, he's the neocon of the future, they hope. But Cotton has proven to more of a neophyte than they were expecting. His campaign skills haven't proven to be the best and Democrat Senator David Pryor has been working hard to keep this race close. Unfortunately for Pryor, this is going to be a Republican year, and he will fall just a little short of the mark. Cotton wins by a nose.
Louisiana:
Mary Landrieu never should have been a senator from Louisiana in the first place, but she has managed to survive two squeaker elections. Louisiana has a non-partisan primary with a run-off between the top two if no one gets 50%. Lackluster Bill Cassidy has emerged from a gaggle of candidates to take the lead while Landrieu has been pretty much running in place. Cassidy wins this without a runoff.
North Carolina:
Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis was the establishment favorite here despite being very controversial and having no money. He's still controversial, and he still has no money. Kay Hagan will buy her way back to Senate as Republicans fail to capitalize on her weaknesses.
Republican open seats:
Georgia:
Only one Republican open seat is really worth discussing. Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of popular former Senator Sam Nunn, an arch-conservative Democrat is hoping to capitalize on her father's name and reputation to boost her to a Senate victory here. Businessman David Perdue lacks the experience of a seasoned politician, but he has managed to avoid making any big mistakes which is what Nunn needs. Republicans will keep this seat.
Vulnerable Republican incumbents:
Kentucky:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was thought to be vulnerable, as he has been in virtually all of his elections. He's been challenged by Allison Lundergan Grimes, daughter of a former governor. At 34, Grimes has shown herself not to be ready for prime time. McConnell will soon become the Majority Leader.
Kansas:
What the hell is Kansas doing on this list? The last time they elected a Democrat to the Senate, FDR was president. Not that they'll elect one this time either. Independent Greg Orman has surged since the Democrat dropped out and is causing a real headache for Senator Pat Roberts who apparently also hasn't lived in Kansas since FDR, an issue first raised by his primary opponent.
With Congress' approval rating at 5%, it's not surprising that an incumbent might be in trouble and since Kansans can't vote for "none of the above," the rather unknown Orman seems like the next best bet. Roberts should win this seat, but if he doesn't, there's no guarantee that Orman will caucus with the Democrats anyway. He's said he will caucus with the winner, but that he won't caucus with Harry Reid.
So the GOP wins four open seats and unseats four Democrat incumbents while keeping all of their own seats for a net gain of eight seats.
Now it's your turn.
Open Democrat seats:
Just about everyone agrees that three Democrat open seats in red states will flip to Republican. Those are South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.
Iowa: Democrats expected to hold this seat with Rep. Bruce Braley while obscure Republicans battled it out for the nomination. But State Senator Jodi Ernst came on strong to capture the nomination in the primary and avoid a state convention battle. She's the kind of independent woman Republicans really like, an Iraq War veteran who grew up on a farm castrating hogs. She's also happens to be a really good campaigner who has stolen the limelight from the dry-as-dust Braley. Republicans will win this seat.
Michigan:
Former Secretary of State Terry Lynn Land looked pretty good early in this race which is one of the few where neither candidate has primary opposition. As a former state-wide office holder, Land may have benefitted early from her state-wide name recognition, but Representative Gary Peters has maintained a credible lead for some time now. Democrats will hold this seat.
So in 5 open seats, it looks like the Dems will win only one and the Republicans will pick up four.
Vulnerable Democrat incumbents:
Alaska:
Mark Begich has the advantage of incumbency and comes from a well-known Alaska political family. He's attacking Attorney-General Sullivan as a carpet-bagger. Unfortunately, lots of Alaskans are carpet baggers and Begich won his last race by a whopping 1% against an opponent who was under indictment. Alaska is a Republican state and the voters won't let Democrats forget that. Sullivan should pull this out.
Colorado:
Incumbent Senator Mark Udall has spent a ton of money on advertising and it has merely served to keep him in a dead heat with his Republican challenger, Congressman Cory Gardner. The less lavishly funded Gardner has been husbanding his money for the final stretch. With a more competitive advertising presence Gardner should win.
Arkansas:
Representative Tom Cotton is the neocons favorite neophyte. Young, handsome, with a military background in increasing Republican Arkansas, he's the neocon of the future, they hope. But Cotton has proven to more of a neophyte than they were expecting. His campaign skills haven't proven to be the best and Democrat Senator David Pryor has been working hard to keep this race close. Unfortunately for Pryor, this is going to be a Republican year, and he will fall just a little short of the mark. Cotton wins by a nose.
Louisiana:
Mary Landrieu never should have been a senator from Louisiana in the first place, but she has managed to survive two squeaker elections. Louisiana has a non-partisan primary with a run-off between the top two if no one gets 50%. Lackluster Bill Cassidy has emerged from a gaggle of candidates to take the lead while Landrieu has been pretty much running in place. Cassidy wins this without a runoff.
North Carolina:
Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis was the establishment favorite here despite being very controversial and having no money. He's still controversial, and he still has no money. Kay Hagan will buy her way back to Senate as Republicans fail to capitalize on her weaknesses.
Republican open seats:
Georgia:
Only one Republican open seat is really worth discussing. Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of popular former Senator Sam Nunn, an arch-conservative Democrat is hoping to capitalize on her father's name and reputation to boost her to a Senate victory here. Businessman David Perdue lacks the experience of a seasoned politician, but he has managed to avoid making any big mistakes which is what Nunn needs. Republicans will keep this seat.
Vulnerable Republican incumbents:
Kentucky:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was thought to be vulnerable, as he has been in virtually all of his elections. He's been challenged by Allison Lundergan Grimes, daughter of a former governor. At 34, Grimes has shown herself not to be ready for prime time. McConnell will soon become the Majority Leader.
Kansas:
What the hell is Kansas doing on this list? The last time they elected a Democrat to the Senate, FDR was president. Not that they'll elect one this time either. Independent Greg Orman has surged since the Democrat dropped out and is causing a real headache for Senator Pat Roberts who apparently also hasn't lived in Kansas since FDR, an issue first raised by his primary opponent.
With Congress' approval rating at 5%, it's not surprising that an incumbent might be in trouble and since Kansans can't vote for "none of the above," the rather unknown Orman seems like the next best bet. Roberts should win this seat, but if he doesn't, there's no guarantee that Orman will caucus with the Democrats anyway. He's said he will caucus with the winner, but that he won't caucus with Harry Reid.
So the GOP wins four open seats and unseats four Democrat incumbents while keeping all of their own seats for a net gain of eight seats.
Now it's your turn.
