California May Have a Random Celebrity Republican as Governor Soon

[lpetrich]

The count continues, though slowly.

The vote is now No: 62.0%, Yes: 38.0%, with >95% of the vote counted.

San Joaquin Cty is now >95%. Only 14 counties <= 95%. Their estimated uncounted votes is now 53,000. At this rate of vote counting, it should be done by the end of this week.

ETA: Shasta, Imperial, and Inyo Counties are at 95%, Kern, Yolo, Tehama, San Benito, Del Norte, and Colusa Counties at 94%, Napa County at 93%, Humboldt County at 87%, Alpine County at 80%, Modoc County at 76%, and Lake County at 39%.

 

[lpetrich]

Yesterday, the vote was No: 62.0%, Yes: 38.0%, with >95% of the vote counted.

Only 11 counties then had <=95%, with Del Norte, Humboldt, and Yolo Counties then having >95%. Only about 41,000 votes in the <=95% counties uncounted.

Today, the vote is No: 61.9%, Yes: 38.1%, with >95% of the vote counted.

Only 9 counties now have <=95%, with Kern and Napa Counties now having >95%. Only about 25,000 votes in the <=95% counties.

I notice a lack of change in the counts in the <=95% counties. Almost as if there is a team that goes from county to county, counting up the stragglers. At that putative team's rate of counting, the count should be done tomorrow or Monday. Tuesday will be 4 weeks after Election Day.

Shasta County is the most populous remaining county, though it is only second in uncounted votes. The champion there is Lake County.

 

[lpetrich]

Alpine County is now at >95% counted, leaving 8 counties <= 95%. Lake is still at 39%, Modoc at 76%, Tehama, San Benito, and Colusa at 94%, and Shasta, Imperial, and Inyo at 95%.

These stragglers are mostly rural and small-town, and not big cities or their suburbs, and they mostly voted Yes, to recall.

2021 California Recall Election Results - The New York Times

 

[lpetrich]

Imperial is now >95%, with some more votes counted. That county is at the southeast corner of the state. Only 7 counties remaining, with some 23,000 votes to count.

San Benito and Inyo Counties are the only ones remaining that are south of the San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento; all the others are north of those two urban areas.

The strongest Yes to Recall votes came from the northeast area of the state, and that area overlaps with a proposed secession: southwest Oregon and northern California as the state of Jefferson. Proposals for its southern border vary: Mendocino - Plumas and Mendocino - Placer with a southern extension into Madera. Both proposals include several "Yes" counties with only a few No counties.  Jefferson (proposed Pacific state)

 

[Politesse]

Ha! Jefferson can't have Madera County, that's in the South Valley. They're always trying to gerrymander their proposed state in to bizarre shapes, for fear that the inclusion of any cities of size will turn the new state blue. They're right to worry, but why should anyone else feel inclined to let them create a new, octopus-shaped Wyoming?

 

[lpetrich]

Madera County is due east of San Jose, and it's more like at the center of the Central Valley. Bakersfield, in Kern County, is at the south end of that valley.

I've seen secession proposals for far-northern California, as it may be called, southwestern Oregon, eastern Oregon, and eastern Washington State, either making new states or else joining Idaho to make some Greater Idaho.


That aside, Tehama County has some votes counted, making it join the >95%. Only 6 counties remain, with about 21,500 votes uncounted in htem.

 

[Politesse]

Madera County is due east of San Jose, and it's more like at the center of the Central Valley. Bakersfield, in Kern County, is at the south end of that valley.

I've seen secession proposals for far-northern California, as it may be called, southwestern Oregon, eastern Oregon, and eastern Washington State, either making new states or else joining Idaho to make some Greater Idaho.


That aside, Tehama County has some votes counted, making it join the >95%. Only 6 counties remain, with about 21,500 votes uncounted in htem.

I know exactly where Madera County is - two counties south of where I grew up in central California. And the idea that they're going to be allowed to cookie-cutter their way around four major metropolitan areas including the state capital, just to claim a bit of rural Madera county for their own, is silly.

 

[lpetrich]

One of the proposed maps includes Stanislaus County, which means that Jefferson will partially encircle Sacramento. Politesse, I don't know which "four major metropolitan areas" you are referring to, because I count the San Francisco Bay Area as one metropolitan area. With Sacramento, that makes two.


Shasta and Colusa Counties are now at >95%, and the four remaining counties are Lake 39%, Modoc 76%, San Benito 94%, and Inyo 95%. I expect San Benito and Inyo Counties to be next, since the stragglers counted so far are mostly at 94% or 95% counted. My estimate of votes to count in the four remaining stragglers are 17,400.

 

[lpetrich]

The <=95% counties are now Modoc 76%, Lake 93%, San Benito 94%, Inyo 95% -- about 4,500 votes to go.

Lake County got a big jump in counted votes.


A very interesting book on American regionalism is Colin Woodard's "American Nations", a successor of Joel Garreau's "The Nine Nations of North America" and David Hackett Fischer's "Albion's Seed".

CW has a map of the 11 North American cultural nations, and the three most relevant ones here are El Norte, the Left Coast, and the Far West.

El Norte is from settlers who came from Mexico - it has southernmost California and a coastal strip northward to a little beyond Los Angeles -- Imperial, Riverside, San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo Counties.

The Left Coast is from settlers from the eastern US and Canada, and it extends further northward, starting at Monterey and San Benito Counties. It includes the counties that surround San Francisco Bay, Mendocino, Humboldt, and Del Norte Counties, the counties around the Willamette Valley in Oregon, the counties around Puget Sound in Washington, and Vancouver Island and the nearby mainland in British Columbia, Canada.

The Far West extends from these two regions eastward across a large stretch of arid, mountainous, and thinly populated territory. It is culturally very different from the coastal regions, thus the talk of secession.

 

[Swammerdami]

'Stuck with.'
Odd term for someone who got a landslide win from the state's voters. They're stuck with the favorite.

Apparently not that many people wanted to get stuck with Larry Elder the idiot.

The fact that the top contender for QOP was Larry Elder shows what an utter joke this recall effort, and the QOP party more generally, have become.

Ha! Jefferson can't have Madera County, that's in the South Valley. They're always trying to gerrymander their proposed state in to bizarre shapes, for fear that the inclusion of any cities of size will turn the new state blue. They're right to worry, but why should anyone else feel inclined to let them create a new, octopus-shaped Wyoming?

I did a crude study on partitioning California. I found that almost any segment of California defined solely by two lines of latitude would have a blue-voting majority. Even the far north would be dominated by populous blue-leaning Humboldt County.

 

[Politesse]

Yup, same is true of Oregon, hence why they have to awkwardly elbow out Eugene even though Lane County is obviously a part of the same general geographic region as its Jeffersonian neighbors. Maps of Jefferson are always dubious... it's painfully obvious what they're trying to do.

 

[lpetrich]

Whew! 2021 California Recall Election Results - The New York Times

Every county is now at >95%
Though all the four remaining ones got designated at that without any changes in their vote counts.

Recall Gov. Newsom?
No: 7,944,092 - 61.9%
Yes: 4,894,473 - 38.1%
Total reported: 12,838,565

The "No" counties are mostly Left Coast and El Norte, while the "Yes" counties are mostly Far West.

Jefferson (N CA, S OR), Greater Idaho (ID, E OR), and Liberty (E WA) are also all Far West.

 

[Swammerdami]

The "No" counties are mostly Left Coast and El Norte, while the "Yes" counties are mostly Far West.

If anyone finds this confusing, be aware that Ipetrich is using a particular jargon in which "Far West" includes the Eastern (but not the Western) portion of California.

 

[lpetrich]

The "No" counties are mostly Left Coast and El Norte, while the "Yes" counties are mostly Far West.

If anyone finds this confusing, be aware that Ipetrich is using a particular jargon in which "Far West" includes the Eastern (but not the Western) portion of California.

Yes, from Colin Woodard's American Nations. The Far West extends into eastern California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia.

 

[lpetrich]

What Happened? In its recent recall election, Republicans underestimated how much California has turned into a one-party state | USAPP

The last time a Republican occupied the governor’s office in California, it began with a recall election of the incumbent Democrat Gray Davis in 2003. Having failed to win the governorship in the most populous state through regular elections since then, Republicans surmised that the current political environment and the composition of voters in a special election would tilt the outcome in their favor. While polling showed a glimmer of hope for support of the recall, indicating Republicans might have their shot at picking a successor, Democrats and their allies rallied behind incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom to ultimately crush Republican hopes for redemption in California.

The California Republican Party painted a target on its back by lining up behind Larry Elder.

Bombarding the airwaves and internet, Newsom and company effectively nationalized the election, pitching an Elder administration as Trump’s second term confined just to California. Mask and vaccine mandates would be eliminated and send the state into another COVID-19 surge akin to Florida and Texas.

Republicans did get one thing right about the recall election. It did hinge on the state’s restrictive COVID-19 policies, but not in the way they anticipated. In perhaps another signal of the echo chambers that American political parties operate under, Republicans assumed that enough Californians were frustrated with the state lockdowns and Newsom’s liberal ways to push him out of office. However, exit polls revealed that only 28 percent of recall voters thought Newsom’s COVID-19 policies were too strict. That percentage is nearly the same as the percentage (27) of recall voters that were Republicans.

Seems like they were watching too much Fox News.

Since turnouts are relatively low in elections away from Presidential elections, the Republicans expected good results for them. But the actual numbers were Democrats 47% of registered voters and 51% of votes and Republicans 24% of registered voters and 27% of votes. So the Democrats had very good turnout.

Also, less than 60% of voters voted for an alternative for Gov. Newsom.

Election Night Results | 2021 Gubernatorial Recall Election | California Secretary of State - the officially-certified numbers should be ready by Oct. 22.

 

[Politesse]

They're surprised they turned us into a one-party state? By making an openly anti-California rhetoric integral to their public aesthetics nationwide? Well, I always thought they were idiots.

 

[lpetrich]

After the Democrats' defeat in Virginia and squeaker victory in New Jersey, one has to ask why California bucked that trend and rejected the recall of Gov. Newsom by a higher margin than expected. I decided to compare his recall numbers to his election numbers: Gavin Newsom - Ballotpedia

GN won the recall by 61.9 - 38.1 %

He won the 2018 election by 61.9 - 38.1 % -- the same fractions even though not the same absolute numbers

 

[Jarhyn]

Pros and cons for everybody. If they don’t like it they can move. Or they can elect new politicians.

Let me give you a personal glimpse.

I'm a gay atheist living in semi-rural Trumpistan Indiana. My family and roots are here. I can't just move. The costs would be huge. I'm not talking about the money, I'm talking about everything!

Nor can I just "vote someone else" in. Trump swept every district in this state in 2016 in the Republican primaries. Trumpistas are legion around here. It's a "low vaccination rate" area of a "low vaccination rate" state.


I'm stuck with America. I'm not as portable as many Americans are. So don't say "Well, you could just move". "You're free".
No I'm not!
Tom

You yourself just said the costs would be huge. Which means you are free to choose something else but don’t want to pay the costs. You’ve weighed the pros and cons of your situation and chosen to stay.

In California people are also weighing their pros and cons. I have lived in multiple places all around the country, ranging from Baltimore to Wisconsin to the Bay Area. Cost of living is incredibly high out here, yes, but in many ways I am getting things for this cost.

Everybody is going to whinge about where they are for one reason or another. Certain posters seem to be making it out like this is unique to California. Some people may be moving to Florida or Texas from California. that will improve their lives in some ways and likely be worse in others. I, personally, would never move to either of those states given my desires and situation even if it improved the cost of living. RVonse is making it out to be a choice between conservatism and low cost of living or liberalism and high cost of living. Even granting that to be true I know my choice.

I might ask myself, if more liberal places have higher costs of living, and supply and demand mean that those places with high demand will see shrinking supply which increases costs, then the resulting logic of basic economics in the most trivial application of it seems to indicate that the real reason this is the choice is that IT SUCKS to live in QOP america, and it sucks less to not.

 

[Politesse]

Shaming your foes for a high cost of living is such a weird strategy. You're basically going "oh yeeah, well their way of life is successful and prosperous, who would want that?" And the red states wonder why all their kids move away to CA and NY the second they get a college degree or master a skilled trade. Some of us actually like living in nice places tyvm.

 

[Jarhyn]

Shaming your foes for a high cost of living is such a weird strategy. You're basically going "oh yeeah, well their way of life is successful and prosperous, who would want that?" And the red states wonder why all their kids move away to CA and NY the second they get a college degree or master a skilled trade. Some of us actually like living in nice places tyvm.

It's strange. There is a massive dearth in young people willing to turn a physical tool.

The electrician union is paying people 25/hr to go to school. My friend down the road whose father is a skilled and experienced plumber charges $200/hr, still has too many calls to service, and has not gotten any challenge on his prices for years. They just smile and nod and fork it over.

This wouldn't be happening if rural areas could possibly be something that young people could have interest in staying around. But until it's possible for a small rural town built around 3 churches to be any thing but 3 different semi-social cult groups full of easily spotted lies competing over which farmers they are suckering into "donations" and attacking anyone who falls outside of that ecosystem of cult ownership, it will be impossible for such children to be retained in the communities they would otherwise grow and learn trades in