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Canadian Federal Election - 2015

 
 
 
So anyway, my OP is pretty much out of date it seems. The NDP is losing support due to a controversial Walrus Burka ban. This has catapulted the besieged Conservative Party near the top and forced a good portion of the Canadian Population to accept voting Liberal again while rolling their eyes. Canada is a mysterious country to Americans, so I thought I'd offer a few nuggets of information so that Americans can better understand their happy, but cold neighbors to the north.


  • Canada is represented by a Parliamentary style of Government. The leader is determined after the people have elected representatives for House Seats or "ridings". The party with the most seats will lead if they have a majority. Without a majority, they need to form a coalition government. If they can not form a coalition government, the next party in line gets to try. If that doesn't work, the Captain of the Stanley Cup winner becomes PM.
  • Canada uses an antiquated system of paper ballots which literally takes them a couple hours to count and determine who won the election. Dark ages!
  • It is often thought that the entire nation of Canada votes in these elections. While technically true, usually only residents in Ontario and Quebec actually have a say in who runs the country. However, lately, people in the West get to have a say due to the minority governments. The Maritimes and Territories are just happy to get "I voted" stickers.
 
arkirk said:
rousseau said:
I'm going to down two shots of whisky for every percentage point the Conservatives win by.
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Is that to medicate for the pain or to celebrate?
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The Conservatives are going to lose so it's a moot point. If the election had been last week, they probably would have won but the momentum is against them now.

In an election where the momentum and numbers have been changing on a week-by-week basis, there's no reason to assume that the current trends this week won't hold all the way until the end. This is because the current trends are moving in favour of the guy I'm going to vote for.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
arkirk said:
Is that to medicate for the pain or to celebrate?
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The Conservatives are going to lose so it's a moot point. If the election had been last week, they probably would have won but the momentum is against them now.

In an election where the momentum and numbers have been changing on a week-by-week basis, there's no reason to assume that the current trends this week won't hold all the way until the end. This is because the current trends are moving in favour of the guy I'm going to vote for.
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So then you intend to celebrate?
 
arkirk said:
Tom Sawyer said:
The Conservatives are going to lose so it's a moot point. If the election had been last week, they probably would have won but the momentum is against them now.

In an election where the momentum and numbers have been changing on a week-by-week basis, there's no reason to assume that the current trends this week won't hold all the way until the end. This is because the current trends are moving in favour of the guy I'm going to vote for.
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So then you intend to celebrate?
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Yes.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Canada is represented by a Parliamentary style of Government. The leader is determined after the people have elected representatives for House Seats or "ridings". The party with the most seats will lead if they have a majority. Without a majority, they need to form a coalition government. If they can not form a coalition government, the next party in line gets to try. If that doesn't work, the Captain of the Stanley Cup winner becomes PM.
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The coalition bit is a lie. Coalition governments at the federal level are quite rare and unlikely. The party with the most seats determines the PM whether they hold a majority of seats or not. If they do not, the PM dons a moose pelt and antlers. If anyone can wrestle the antlers from the PM, government is typically dissolved, though the Governor General does technically have the authority to ship the loser PM out to sea on an ice floe. That's why Harper is so keen to promote global warming. With the best case scenario for him probably being a Conservative minority government, he doesn't want to have to face a potentially cold and watery grave yet again. No ice; no problem.
 
Today's the day. Just about all predictions are for a Liberal minority, Conservative opposition, and NDP holding a sizeable chunk of seats. Curious how it will actually play out in reality.
 
krypton iodine sulfur said:
Curious how it will actually play out in reality.
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Well, polls close at 9:30pm, so I expect Harper to invoke the War Measures Act at about 9:15 and suspend democracy in order to protect Canada from the clear and present danger of a Trudeau win.

Either that or he'll just wander over to Rob Ford's house to smoke some crack to help him get over it.
 
With the polling all but useless at this point, it'll down to the usual things, Quebec and Ontario ridings. It looks like the Liberals will need a miracle to pull off a majority government. But the seats could be there. They need to clean the Conservatives clock in Ontario and the NDP's clock in Quebec. And still even then, that might not be enough. It'll be interesting, especially knowing that it takes literally a couple hours to find out the election results. The nation will be in chaos from the uncertainty.

Regardless, Americans will likely be familiar with the new leader's name, Trudeau.

Just kidding. About 1 in 500,000 Americans will know of the Trudeau name. Which is equivalent to the number of Americans who can identify Harper as the PM and not the 1 in 100,000 that are pretty certain it is Gretzky or something. Former President George W. Bush is still trying to leave a message for PM Poutine.
Tom Sawyer said:
krypton iodine sulfur said:
Curious how it will actually play out in reality.
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Well, polls close at 9:30pm, so I expect Harper to invoke the War Measures Act at about 9:15 and suspend democracy in order to protect Canada from the clear and present danger of a Trudeau win.

Either that or he'll just wander over to Rob Ford's house to smoke some crack to help him get over it.
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Harper is in Ottawa, not Toronto. It'd be a walk to get to Ford's house.
 
At the very least, if it looks like they're going to lose, I think one of the remaining Conservative MPs will stick him with a knife in pretty short order. I don't know if a living Harper will step back from leadership, but it's time for him to give it a rest so another Alliance tool can step up and pretend to somehow be different. I think Kenney will order the hit.
 
krypton iodine sulfur said:
At the very least, if it looks like they're going to lose, I think one of the remaining Conservative MPs will stick him with a knife in pretty short order. I don't know if a living Harper will step back from leadership, but it's time for him to give it a rest so another Alliance tool can step up and pretend to somehow be different. I think Kenney will order the hit.
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I don't think that there's any viable way that he can lose the election tonight and not resign as leader in his concession speech. He remembers quite well how pathetic Ignatieff looked by leaving the decision until the next day after the entire Liberal leadership basically told him to go and fuck off and he knows that if the Conservatives lose tonight, they will have lost because of him. His two choices will be to bow out gracefully and have the status of a respected (in some circles) elder statesman or get turfed and become the awkward guy whom nobody wants to deal with.

Regardless of how it turns out, however, I think we can all agree that Stephen Harper doesn't care about black people.*

* See the Last Week Tonight video on the Canadian election for this reference.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
krypton iodine sulfur said:
At the very least, if it looks like they're going to lose, I think one of the remaining Conservative MPs will stick him with a knife in pretty short order. I don't know if a living Harper will step back from leadership, but it's time for him to give it a rest so another Alliance tool can step up and pretend to somehow be different. I think Kenney will order the hit.
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I don't think that there's any viable way that he can lose the election tonight and not resign as leader in his concession speech. He remembers quite well how pathetic Ignatieff looked by leaving the decision until the next day after the entire Liberal leadership basically told him to go and fuck off and he knows that if the Conservatives lose tonight, they will have lost because of him. His two choices will be to bow out gracefully and have the status of a respected (in some circles) elder statesman or get turfed and become the awkward guy whom nobody wants to deal with.

Regardless of how it turns out, however, I think we can all agree that Stephen Harper doesn't care about black people.*

* See the Last Week Tonight video on the Canadian election for this reference.
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Spoiler alerts dude! Some of us have stuff on the DVR. ;)
 
First polls are scheduled to close soon (thought they may run later). Not sure when the results will start trickling in, but there is no blackout on the results this election as far as I know. Some people were complaining it could bias the results or discourage people from voting in the west, but I'd find it hard to believe any such effects would be significant if they existed at all. Even if it was likely as a matter of human nature, I don't think enough electoral districts will have winners for anyone to determine prematurely which party will form government by the time polls close here.

edit: the live election trackers are updating results already. It's begun.
 
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Woah. Libs own the Maritimes. They may get a majority government after all.
 
As noted before, Toronto and Montreal are the biggest players in the election. Once those come in, we'll know whether there is a majority government. The NDP is holding their own in the sparsely populated, but gorgeous, northern Ontario ridings.
 
Looks like the Libs win, but with a minority government. The big loser is the NDP.
 
I hope Trudeau keeps his promise about this being the last election with first-past-the-post.
 
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