Chronicles in Socialism - Venezuela has Elections Sunday

[maxparrish]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezue...rging-opposition-as-elections-near-1449191000

By JUAN FORERO and ANATOLY KURMANAEV
Dec. 3, 2015 8:03 p.m. ET

CARACAS, Venezuela—Venezuela’s socialist government, facing the prospect of its first major election defeat in Sunday’s congressional vote, is fighting back against a strong opposition by resorting to a trusted formula of spreading fear and currying favor.

State workers are being pressured to vote for candidates of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, or PSUV, or risk losing their jobs, public employees said in interviews. In speeches and rallies, officials remind audiences how much they depend on government largess, even as they tell grandmothers that a new congress will eliminate their pensions. ...

If voters give the edge to the opposition, President Nicolás Maduro says his government could go into “rebellion” and refuse to share any power—intimating that he would use force if necessary.

“Imagine if they dominated the National Assembly,” Mr. Maduro said in a televised address this week. “I wouldn’t allow it, I swear, I wouldn’t let my hands be tied by anyone..."

More than half of Venezuelan voters believe their electronically registered ballots aren’t secret, according to a recent survey by the Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas. One in six voters works in the government, and every fourth benefits from social-spending programs that the government touts for hours each day in more than half a dozen state-run television channels.

“The fear of retaliation is significant,” said Benigno Alarcón, the head of political studies at the Catholic University here. “It could change the voting outcome in certain districts.”

Such tactics, and a complicated voting system that accords greater weight to rural government strongholds, might harm the opposition’s results, electoral experts say, meaning less power for Mr. Maduro’s foes in the congress even if they win.

The government has used a range of tools to create what Venezuelan and international electoral experts call an uneven playing field. On the complex ballot for Sunday, officials even gave a pro-government party a name and logo nearly identical to that of the opposition’s coalition.

Organizations with years of experience monitoring elections, such as the Organization of American States, have been barred from observing Sunday’s vote. And the government has used its overwhelming media presence—including its influence on the country’s private media—to focus on its message that an opposition victory would mean chaos. ...

“It’s the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach to electoral manipulation,” said Harold Trinkunas, the Venezuelan-born director of the Latin America Initiative at the Brookings Institution. “They are trying to move the needle with everything they can so they can hold down the opposition numbers on election day, to ensure that they keep it to a simple majority.”

...Venezuela’s three million public employees face the most pressure. One department head at the Justice Ministry said superiors push her and others to attend pro-government rallies, where attendance is taken.

“The message is, you could lose your job,” she said, explaining how security guards are posted at the exit points of rallies to stop attendees from leaving until they are over.

...José Mirador, who sells old furniture and appliances, got a new free computer this week thanks to a recently instituted state program. He says he plans to vote for the opposition, but that the message of fear has worked. among the poor. “People want change, but they are afraid,” he said.

It seems that the government expects to lose, but are pulling out all the stops to ensure that the opposition legislature does not have enough votes for a supermajority.

In spite of polls showing a 70% margin of support for the opposition, I suspect the government will succeed. With major opposition leaders in jail, unsupervised elections, massive election funding of the party in power, and threats against the voting blocks that 70 percent is very unlikely to materialize.

 

[Derec]

Maduro went "full dictator".

Maybe thinking that he was not sufficiently clear, he added: "I swear that while I am alive, and under no circumstances would I surrender our revolution. Let's be prepared for blood and massacre, and to defend our homeland and to win no matter how, and no matter at what cost." But his next statement must be taken very seriously: "Were we to lose, which I find unimaginable, I will govern with the people in a civilian-military alliance."

The War to the Death Decree
Things could get really ugly for Venezuela in the coming weeks.

 

[Jayjay]

Maduro went "full dictator".

Maybe thinking that he was not sufficiently clear, he added: "I swear that while I am alive, and under no circumstances would I surrender our revolution. Let's be prepared for blood and massacre, and to defend our homeland and to win no matter how, and no matter at what cost." But his next statement must be taken very seriously: "Were we to lose, which I find unimaginable, I will govern with the people in a civilian-military alliance."

The War to the Death Decree
Things could get really ugly for Venezuela in the coming weeks.

I doubt nothing will happen. If Maduro is openly saying that he'll go for military coup if he loses, then certainly he'll have no compuctions faking election results to ensure he doesn't lose.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

Maduro went "full dictator".

The War to the Death Decree
Things could get really ugly for Venezuela in the coming weeks.

Yepez had charisma and popular support so he could keep elections going because he knew he could win*.

I doubt nothing will happen. If Maduro is openly saying that he'll go for military coup if he loses, then certainly he'll have no compuctions faking election results to ensure he doesn't lose.

Yep. Chavez had charisma and popular support so he could keep elections going because he knew he could win*.

*this does not mean that the elections were fair.

 

[Nexus]

President Nicolás Maduro says his government could go into “rebellion” and refuse to share any power—intimating that he would use force if necessary.

While I don't know his exact quote in spanish. The use of the word 'rebellion' here is one of the most egregious examples of doublespeak I've ever heard.

 

[SimpleDon]

Unquestioningly they are showing all the signs of an extremest party trying anything and everything to cling to power as popular opinion begins to go against them as their failures mount up and start to become more obvious to the population. Let's break it down and see if we can see how extremist parties with unpopular policies try to hold on to continue to advance their extreme policies.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezue...rging-opposition-as-elections-near-1449191000

By JUAN FORERO and ANATOLY KURMANAEV
Dec. 3, 2015 8:03 p.m. ET

CARACAS, Venezuela—Venezuela’s socialist government, facing the prospect of its first major election defeat in Sunday’s congressional vote, is fighting back against a strong opposition by resorting to a trusted formula of spreading fear and currying favor.

Certainly extremists always overstate threats, especially those from outside of the country and especially those threats that succeeded in destruction and loss of life under the extremists' watch due to their failures to properly access the threat even after being warned of it.

State workers are being pressured to vote for candidates of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, or PSUV, or risk losing their jobs, public employees said in interviews. In speeches and rallies, officials remind audiences how much they depend on government largess, even as they tell grandmothers that a new congress will eliminate their pensions. ...

It extreme and cowardly to eliminate or to diminish the pensions that people have paid into and counted on their whole lives. This too is an indication of an extremist party that is out of control and doesn't deserve to be in power.

If voters give the edge to the opposition, President Nicolás Maduro says his government could go into “rebellion” and refuse to share any power—intimating that he would use force if necessary.

“Imagine if they dominated the National Assembly,” Mr. Maduro said in a televised address this week. “I wouldn’t allow it, I swear, I wouldn’t let my hands be tied by anyone..."

Obstruction of anything that the opposition tries to do, even if it is something that they have themselves proposed in the past is yet another indication that they don't deserve the support and the votes of the population. Nothing could be clearer.

More than half of Venezuelan voters believe their electronically registered ballots aren’t secret, according to a recent survey by the Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas.

One in six voters works in the government, and every fourth benefits from social-spending programs that the government touts for hours each day in more than half a dozen state-run television channels.

“The fear of retaliation is significant,” said Benigno Alarcón, the head of political studies at the Catholic University here. “It could change the voting outcome in certain districts.”

Such tactics, and a complicated voting system that accords greater weight to rural government strongholds, might harm the opposition’s results, electoral experts say, meaning less power for Mr. Maduro’s foes in the congress even if they win.

A party that has to rely on its government granted ability to draw election districts to stay in power is an unacceptable perversion of democracy and a further sign that they don't deserve support.

The government has used a range of tools to create what Venezuelan and international electoral experts call an uneven playing field. On the complex ballot for Sunday, officials even gave a pro-government party a name and logo nearly identical to that of the opposition’s coalition.

Organizations with years of experience monitoring elections, such as the Organization of American States, have been barred from observing Sunday’s vote.

Only the guilty can object to outside, accredited election watchers, whether it is the OAS or even Jimmy Carter's democracy project. Such organizations are trained to spot election abuses that the opposition party might not recognize like the in power, crooked party denying people's right to vote because the potential voter shares a name with a convicted felon, even if the felon lives in a completely different jurisdiction. I am not saving that this has happened in this case but it is an example of how low that the most corrupt will go.

And the government has used its overwhelming media presence—including its influence on the country’s private media—to focus on its message that an opposition victory would mean chaos. ...

“It’s the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach to electoral manipulation,” said Harold Trinkunas, the Venezuelan-born director of the Latin America Initiative at the Brookings Institution. “They are trying to move the needle with everything they can so they can hold down the opposition numbers on election day, to ensure that they keep it to a simple majority.”

...Venezuela’s three million public employees face the most pressure. One department head at the Justice Ministry said superiors push her and others to attend pro-government rallies, where attendance is taken.

“The message is, you could lose your job,” she said, explaining how security guards are posted at the exit points of rallies to stop attendees from leaving until they are over.

...José Mirador, who sells old furniture and appliances, got a new free computer this week thanks to a recently instituted state program. He says he plans to vote for the opposition, but that the message of fear has worked. among the poor. “People want change, but they are afraid,” he said.

It seems that the government expects to lose, but are pulling out all the stops to ensure that the opposition legislature does not have enough votes for a supermajority.

In spite of polls showing a 70% margin of support for the opposition, I suspect the government will succeed. With major opposition leaders in jail, unsupervised elections, massive election funding of the party in power, and threats against the voting blocks that 70 percent is very unlikely to materialize.

I am afraid that you are right, unfortunately. Especially considering how successful other extremist parties have been in other countries at clinging to power in the face of a growing majority against them.

 

[maxparrish]

Yepez had charisma and popular support so he could keep elections going because he knew he could win*.

I doubt nothing will happen. If Maduro is openly saying that he'll go for military coup if he loses, then certainly he'll have no compuctions faking election results to ensure he doesn't lose.

Yep. Chavez had charisma and popular support so he could keep elections going because he knew he could win*.

*this does not mean that the elections were fair.

Nor is it clear that these elections will result in Maduro's PSUV losing (or losing enough to matter). Polls show 70 percent in favor of the opposition (MUD) BUT the electoral corruption and intimidation is so deep there is little doubt that it will affect "official" results.

The Secretary General of the OAS, in reply to Venezuela's curt rejection of an OAS election observation mission, wrote a long 18 page letter to their elections chief, Tibisay Lucena (the translated version in the link below):

http://www.oas.org/documents/eng/press/letter-Mrs-Tibisay-Lucena.pdf

For a snapshot, the reuters news story:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-election-idUSKCN0SZ33U20151110#t453GOBkb5xcwRMB.97

There is no way to summarize all content, other than to note that while the letter starts off rather slow and seems disorganized, by the end it is a pretty damning.

In short, the elements in favor of Madoro's PSUV:

- They are very well funded, much of it in its uncontrolled use of National government funds, media resources, and deployment of civil servants as their own cadres.

- Ballot confusion. The government party has created a faux party, similar in colors and names to that of MUD. So its list of candidates is placed next to MUD and their card of candidates, some with identical names to the MUD slate. For example, it lists Ismael García, a 28 year-old laborer with no prior political activist record, to run for deputy. It appears next to another Ismael García, the latter a well-known opposition leader.

- Under the security plan code-named Operation People's Liberation (OLPL) various human rights defense organizations have identified it being responsible for mass arrests and alleged extrajudicial executions.

- The ruling party has changed the election rules for 2015, requiring an equal gender distribution of candidate slates so as to give it a distinct advantage.

- The ruling party has changed the distribution of deputies to voters: 6 states that account for 52% of the voter register can only elect 64 deputies, while the remaining 18 can elect 100 deputies.

- The ruling party has disqualified many well-known opposition leaders, former public office holders. They ONLY apply to the opposition. Among them:

- Former Governor Manuel Rosales (former presidential candidate and former governor of Zulia State);
- Former Governor Pablo Pérez (former governor of Maracaibo and former governor of Zulia State)
- Opposition leader María Corina Machado (deputy elected with the most votes nationwide in 2010)
- Former mayor Daniel Ceballos (San Cristóbal, Táchira State);
-Former mayor Enzo Scarano (San Diego, Carabobo State);
- Carlos Vecchio (Voluntad Popular party leader); and
- Leopoldo López, who was previously disqualified and was ratified until 2017.

- And the well documented and widespread censorship, denial of licenses, and intimidation of all the opposition press.

So we shall see how close poll results tally with actual "official votes".

 

[maxparrish]

Venezuelan Blogs are reporting tidbits...

Daniel's Blog - Although a long-time opponent of the government he seems discouraged and burned out. He says his blogging has fallen off and no longer has access to 'insider' news:

I will try from the road to Tweet or Instagram things if I come across noteworthy moments. And hopefully after 5 PM I may be able to cover some and update this post. But it is open so that readers who may want to share electoral information can go ahead in comments if they please as I will not be able to purvey then. Because with the arrest of Lopez and exile of others and my own changes I have lost track of my informants and I am now just a spectator like you guys. O tempora..

http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2015/12/election-day-2015-post.html#more

 

[untermensche]

Oh my.

And Obama is sending people to "indoctrination camps" any minute now.

The paranoia and absurd melodrama is so thick you can taste it.

Save the whining fear tantrums until after the election.

Perhaps Venezuela will return to it's former self. An authoritarian apartheid state.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Oh my.

And Obama is sending people to "indoctrination camps" any minute now.

The paranoia and absurd melodrama is so thick you can taste it.

Save the whining fear tantrums until after the election.

Perhaps Venezuela will return to it's former self. An authoritarian apartheid state.

Venezuela is very different than the US.

 

[untermensche]

Oh my.

And Obama is sending people to "indoctrination camps" any minute now.

The paranoia and absurd melodrama is so thick you can taste it.

Save the whining fear tantrums until after the election.

Perhaps Venezuela will return to it's former self. An authoritarian apartheid state.

Venezuela is very different than the US.

It is a place US businesses used to think of as their possession.

And an apartheid state at the same time. The US businesses or press never minded the apartheid state.

 

[maxparrish]

The election is going much better than I anticipated. The opposition is way over the 50 percent level, and is close to 2/3rds majority. However 17 seats remain to be decided...Maduro has sent in the army to keep certain polling stations open for "extra votes" - he's pulled out the stops.

If the 2/3 supernumerary majority is reached it should be the end of the regime as we knew it; I would not count on it though. Lots of fake voters and ballot stuffing yet to be done.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

...Maduro has sent in the army to keep certain polling stations open for "extra votes" - he's pulled out the stops...

Not that either you or Maduro is interested in democracy, but why the scare quotes over people voting?

 

[maxparrish]

...Maduro has sent in the army to keep certain polling stations open for "extra votes" - he's pulled out the stops...

Not that either you or Maduro is interested in democracy, but why the scare quotes over people voting?

The quotation marks mean so-called votes - nothing scary, just a fact that calling in the army to take over the function of local election boards, making them ignore the law is unprecedented. Under such circumstances, some votes may not be actual legal votes - not that either you or Maduro is overly concerned with such nuances...any more than is changing the rules of the game with ad hoc military action to one's advantage.

We may never know ... but stay tuned.

 

[Derec]

And an apartheid state at the same time. The US businesses or press never minded the apartheid state.

In what way was Venezuela BC (before Chavez) an "apartheid state"?

In any case, the next few weeks ought to be very interesting. Will the bus drivers make good on his threat to rule with the military and ignore the legislature? Will the lame duck legislature pass another Ermächtigungsgesetz? Will Maduro double down on disastrous economic policies or will he try a course correction? Will other PSUV leaders try to stage an intra-party coup and try to install somebody more competent?

 

[maxparrish]

As one might expect, Black Lives Matter seems to be flying its true authoritarian "socialist" sympathies. A co-founder of the Black Lives Matter campaign is in Caracas for Election Day at the invitation of the socialist government.

Opal Tometi has posted about the relief she felt being "in a place where there is intelligent political discourse."

LOL...

 

[untermensche]

And an apartheid state at the same time. The US businesses or press never minded the apartheid state.

In what way was Venezuela BC (before Chavez) an "apartheid state"?

In any case, the next few weeks ought to be very interesting. Will the bus drivers make good on his threat to rule with the military and ignore the legislature? Will the lame duck legislature pass another Ermächtigungsgesetz? Will Maduro double down on disastrous economic policies or will he try a course correction? Will other PSUV leaders try to stage an intra-party coup and try to install somebody more competent?

The indigenous natives were oppressed second class citizens living in squalor in Venezuela until Chavez was elected.

But of course this kind of thing never bothers the supporters of US dominance.

- - - Updated - - -

The election is going much better than I anticipated. The opposition is way over the 50 percent level, and is close to 2/3rds majority. However 17 seats remain to be decided...Maduro has sent in the army to keep certain polling stations open for "extra votes" - he's pulled out the stops.

If the 2/3 supernumerary majority is reached it should be the end of the regime as we knew it; I would not count on it though. Lots of fake voters and ballot stuffing yet to be done.

Oh, polls were kept open longer.

So the problem was too much democracy.

There is nothing you people won't cry about.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

So all the opposition won despite there being no legitimate democracy and exactly how is that possible?

 

[dismal]

So all the opposition won despite there being no legitimate democracy and exactly how is that possible?

Maduro sucks so bad he lost by more than the cheating margin.

Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize great flaws in Venezuela's form of democracy. When large numbers of opposition leaders and news outlet owners are under imprisonment, indictment or threat you should automatically lose the benefit of the doubt.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

So all the opposition won despite there being no legitimate democracy and exactly how is that possible?

Maduro sucks so bad he lost by more than the cheating margin.

Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize great flaws in Venezuela's form of democracy. When large numbers of opposition leaders and news outlet owners are under imprisonment, indictment or threat you should automatically lose the benefit of the doubt.

Got to agree with this point. It's hard to stuff the prosperity genie back into the bottle. Even ideology can't do it. It's why people like FDR ever get elected.