Chronicles in Socialism - Venezuela has Elections Sunday

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

... Give some reliable sources.

Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize that there are financial forces in Venezuela that exaggerate so they can take control.

And those "financial forces" are, and "some reliable numbers" on their exaggeration is? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller...Bueller?

Anything that corporations to privatize such as the oil industry, such as US acting on behalf of corporate interests. There was an attempted coup against Chavez and everyone already knows about it.

...of opposition leaders and news outlet owners are under imprisonment, indictment or threat you should automatically lose the benefit of the doubt.

Some people can be under imprisonment and indictment because they acted illegally, like inciting violence for example using fake conspiracy theories to call for revolution and telling them to be terrorists.

Even if it is legal for the govt to throw such people in prison, it would backfire politically when the opposition has free political speech and so the opposition will get big gains come election time.

It isn't a question of being a mindless ideologue but instead recognizing that the world is more complex than ideological fundamentalism allows for. Perhaps Maduro pushed too much and perhaps much of the opposition lied. Both can be true to extents.

Perhaps Maduro pushed too much? This "is not a question of" a mildly distasteful business in a complex world, but of your narrative of apologetics - adopting panicky rationalizations on "complexity" in order to sell yourself (and us) on a false equivalency.

Evidence?

This is about a socialist party and 'revolutionary' government turning an oil rich state into a society with the highest inflation rate in the world, and delivering second highest homicide rate in the world. It's about extreme privation, rocketing poverty, the 1,000,000 people who decided to get out, and the most polarized population (perhaps in the world) short of civil war.

This is about 6 or 7 leaders of the opposition being "disqualified" for various bogus reasons (e.g. one testified to the OAS about human rights abuses so she was thrown out of the National Assembly and barred from future elections).

Do you have a reliable source for this information? 6 or 7 politicians doing bad things and getting caught, by the way, is a pretty small number, not a "very large" one as claimed...

This is not "complex", it is simple: a highly corrupt (rating only 19 on the 100 point scale of transparency in corruption), mindlessly ideological, and relentlessly authoritarian party runs (or ran) Venezuela.

Your conservative party was against human rights courts, international criminal courts, international law, etc. and YOU specifically argued for torture. So don't try to sell us your BS.

If transparency and democracy means socialism, you don't want it.

 

[arkirk]

And those "financial forces" are, and "some reliable numbers" on their exaggeration is? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller...Bueller?

Anything that corporations to privatize such as the oil industry, such as US acting on behalf of corporate interests. There was an attempted coup against Chavez and everyone already knows about it.

...of opposition leaders and news outlet owners are under imprisonment, indictment or threat you should automatically lose the benefit of the doubt.

Some people can be under imprisonment and indictment because they acted illegally, like inciting violence for example using fake conspiracy theories to call for revolution and telling them to be terrorists.

Even if it is legal for the govt to throw such people in prison, it would backfire politically when the opposition has free political speech and so the opposition will get big gains come election time.

It isn't a question of being a mindless ideologue but instead recognizing that the world is more complex than ideological fundamentalism allows for. Perhaps Maduro pushed too much and perhaps much of the opposition lied. Both can be true to extents.

Perhaps Maduro pushed too much? This "is not a question of" a mildly distasteful business in a complex world, but of your narrative of apologetics - adopting panicky rationalizations on "complexity" in order to sell yourself (and us) on a false equivalency.

Evidence?

This is about a socialist party and 'revolutionary' government turning an oil rich state into a society with the highest inflation rate in the world, and delivering second highest homicide rate in the world. It's about extreme privation, rocketing poverty, the 1,000,000 people who decided to get out, and the most polarized population (perhaps in the world) short of civil war.

This is about 6 or 7 leaders of the opposition being "disqualified" for various bogus reasons (e.g. one testified to the OAS about human rights abuses so she was thrown out of the National Assembly and barred from future elections).

Do you have a reliable source for this information? 6 or 7 politicians doing bad things and getting caught, by the way, is a pretty small number, not a "very large" one as claimed...

This is not "complex", it is simple: a highly corrupt (rating only 19 on the 100 point scale of transparency in corruption), mindlessly ideological, and relentlessly authoritarian party runs (or ran) Venezuela.

Your conservative party was against human rights courts, international criminal courts, international law, etc. and YOU specifically argued for torture. So don't try to sell us your BS.

If transparency and democracy means socialism, you don't want it.

It takes a shrewd leader to deal in fairly dirty crude oil on the world market when the Saudis are flooding the market with superior product at low prices. Maduro simply got out dealt as a capitalist and is paying the price for not fortifying his political position. It truly is not a matter of good and evil or right and wrong, but of the continuing cutthroat game of oil dealing. There is no doubt there was corruption in the government and Maduro was not as sharp as Chavez. I agree with Don2. I have never seen you put forward anything that indicated you were for transparency and democracy...You have only offered the Great Man theory and then when Chavez proved to be one of them, you just chose another one to call great...I do not subscribe to the great man theory of government and feel we need to look closely at constitutions that offer full citizenship to all citizens and democracy. Ours need a lot of reworking to eliminate all the foreign adventurism and attempts at world domination.

 

[untermensche]

I support democracy in Venezuela.

Since most of the polls were showing support for Maduro in the 20s and the opposition in the 60s you must be delighted with the results.

Hail, Democracy.

Believe it or not.

It has nothing to do with me.

Many many people in Venezuela made huge gains because of the programs of Chavez.

Let's see if they slide back into their second class citizen status.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

So when is it known what the actual seat allocation is? How can 19 seats remain "undeclared"?

I don't know what your source is, but as far as I know, it was 99 for the opposition, 46 for the government, and 22 undeclared. But now 20 of those have been declared (source (in Spanish): http://www.el-nacional.com/tu_decid...alizacion-cne-parlamentarias_0_752325146.html ). The government got 9, so they have 55. The MUD (opposition) got just 8, so they have 107, and 3 "indígenas" (indigenous) lawmakers. According to the MUD, the indigenous lawmakers have an alliance with them, so the opposition gets 110.

However, 2 seats are undeclared. I don't know how that happens or when they will declare them, but they're very important. The opposition needs both in order to have the power to amend the Constitution (which requires 2/3), so it's difficult. On the other hand, abrogating a law that would allow Maduro to pass legislation by decree requires 3/5, which they already got. Maduro already has that power, but it expires on December 31. He can tell his lawmakers to pass another law enabling him to pass legislation by decree, but now the opposition can abrogate that law, so even without amending the Constitution, it seems the opposition got enough to seriously limit Maduro's power.

 

[Jayjay]

So when is it known what the actual seat allocation is? How can 19 seats remain "undeclared"?

I don't know what your source is, but as far as I know, it was 99 for the opposition, 46 for the government, and 22 undeclared.

I guess the same sources, I was just not counting the indigenious quota. Anyway thanks for the clarification. The plot thickens.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I don't know what your source is, but as far as I know, it was 99 for the opposition, 46 for the government, and 22 undeclared.

I guess the same sources, I was just not counting the indigenious quota. Anyway thanks for the clarification. The plot thickens.

Thanks for the clarification, and you're welcome.

Some further details: for some amendments (called "enmienda") of the Constitution, only a majority of lawmakers are required, plus a majority in a referendum.
The 2/3 majority of lawmakers - plus a standard majority in a referendum - is necessary for other amendments (called "reforma").

However, the Constitution does not make it clear what goes into each category - it just seems to suggest the latter are bigger amendments, but even they can't alter the "principios fundamentales" ("fundamental principles") of the Constitution -, and the courts are clearly partial towards the government, so it's very probable that attempts to amend the Constitution will be blocked unless the opposition gets the remaining two seats.

Also, even with a 2/3 majority, it's unconstitutional to modify the fundamental principles by those means. But there is another way: a 2/3 majority may call for a constitutional convention, which in turn can make a new constitution. The requirements in terms of votes are not specified.

So, it seems there is at lot still at stake.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Since most of the polls were showing support for Maduro in the 20s and the opposition in the 60s you must be delighted with the results.

Hail, Democracy.

Believe it or not.

It has nothing to do with me.

Many many people in Venezuela made huge gains because of the programs of Chavez.

Let's see if they slide back into their second class citizen status.

Maybe not as "second class" citizens but those not connected to Chavez have been sliding back and taking the middle class with them.

It's the usual story of socialism--while there's still plenty to loot the poor are elevated. The loot runs low and everyone (except those connected to the looters) suffers.

 

[maxparrish]

Do you have a reliable source for this information? 6 or 7 politicians doing bad things and getting caught, by the way, is a pretty small number, not a "very large" one as claimed...

A "reliable source" for what has been discussed and documented repeatedly in this forum (and the previous) forum for several years? If you don't (by now) know the basics of the Venezuelan debacle - stuff already in the MSM popular press - I'm not going to take the time to re-educate you. Telling you that it has the world's second highest homicide rate, or world's highest inflation rate, is not "news" to most of us...except to those who have had rose-colored glasses sewn to their eye-sockets.

(PS no one said anything about "large scale" disqualifications. I spoke of disqualifications of leading opposition figures for trumped up reasons).

In the meantime, for those better informed let's move on - a few observations:

The chavistas have been wounded, and are back to their military styled jargon about 'battles' and 'temporary setbacks'. Their perception has always been that this is class war and only when the other side is annihilated will the war end. Rather than being chastened by their electoral disaster, they reject soul searching and are 'reorganizing' for the final battle with the Yankee empire, capitalism, and sinister forces among them that beat them.

For example, in the crazy Chavista universe it was 'the world media' that marched to the orders of the empire, and therefore the opposition had an unfair media advantage, or so said Roy Chaderton, the foreign minister. And mind you, this is in spite of the opposition facing a media blackout inside Venezuela, foreign and national, and that ANTV (the government channel) is a shill for Chavismo politicians and documentaries.

(By the way, Ramos Allup, the MUD man on the CNE (election board) and one of the engineers of their victory said that ANTV had to be reoriented (rather than replaced) to at least offer to the country a plural window of opinion. The Chavismo journalists were insulted that their work could be questioned and let it me known that their "conquest of information rights" could not be challenged.)

So will the government sectors yield to the new reality? That remains to be seen.

 

[untermensche]

Do you have a reliable source for this information? 6 or 7 politicians doing bad things and getting caught, by the way, is a pretty small number, not a "very large" one as claimed...

A "reliable source" for what has been discussed and documented repeatedly in this forum (and the previous) forum for several years? If you don't (by now) know the basics of the Venezuelan debacle - stuff already in the MSM popular press - I'm not going to take the time to re-educate you. Telling you that it has the world's second highest homicide rate, or world's highest inflation rate, is not "news" to most of us...except to those who have had rose-colored glasses sewn to their eye-sockets.

(PS no one said anything about "large scale" disqualifications. I spoke of disqualifications of leading opposition figures for trumped up reasons).

In the meantime, for those better informed let's move on - a few observations:

The chavistas have been wounded, and are back to their military styled jargon about 'battles' and 'temporary setbacks'. Their perception has always been that this is class war and only when the other side is annihilated will the war end. Rather than being chastened by their electoral disaster, they reject soul searching and are 'reorganizing' for the final battle with the Yankee empire, capitalism, and sinister forces among them that beat them.

For example, in the crazy Chavista universe it was 'the world media' that marched to the orders of the empire, and therefore the opposition had an unfair media advantage said Roy Chaderton, the foreign minister. And mind you, this is in spite of the opposition facing a media blackout inside Venezuela, foreign and national or that ANTV (the government channel) is a shill for Chavismo politicians and documentaries.

(By the way, Ramos Allup, the MUD man on the CNE (election board) and one of the engineers of their victory said that ANTV had to be reoriented (rather than replaced) to at least offer to the country a plural window of opinion. The Chavismo journalists were insulted that their work could be questioned and let it me known that their "conquest of information rights" could not be challenged.)

So will the government sectors yield to the new reality? That remains to be seen.

Nothing crazy about Chavez talking about the US causing trouble. And doing it with accomplices, like Britain or bribed nationals, all the time.

The US, not Chavez is the real problem in the region.

But the US right has everything upside down, so no reason to think they would understand this.

 

[dismal]

The US, not Chavez is the real problem in the region.

What exactly does the US do to cause Venezuela all this inflation, shortages, etc (that also coincidentally are the exact predicted consequences of Maduro's economic policies)?

 

[Angra Mainyu]

So will the government sectors yield to the new reality? That remains to be seen.

They still have plenty of power.
In particular, they can always use the courts to their advantage. The Supreme Tribunal has a clear Chavist majority. And they can strike down laws it deems unconstitutional, nullify them before they enter into effect if the President asks, judge and remove lawmakers, etc.

 

[maxparrish]

I guess the same sources, I was just not counting the indigenious quota. Anyway thanks for the clarification. The plot thickens.

Thanks for the clarification, and you're welcome.

Some further details: for some amendments (called "enmienda") of the Constitution, only a majority of lawmakers are required, plus a majority in a referendum.
The 2/3 majority of lawmakers - plus a standard majority in a referendum - is necessary for other amendments (called "reforma").

However, the Constitution does not make it clear what goes into each category - it just seems to suggest the latter are bigger amendments, but even they can't alter the "principios fundamentales" ("fundamental principles") of the Constitution -, and the courts are clearly partial towards the government, so it's very probable that attempts to amend the Constitution will be blocked unless the opposition gets the remaining two seats.

Also, even with a 2/3 majority, it's unconstitutional to modify the fundamental principles by those means. But there is another way: a 2/3 majority may call for a constitutional convention, which in turn can make a new constitution. The requirements in terms of votes are not specified.

So, it seems there is at lot still at stake.

Yes there is a lot at stake: http://venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/134693710504/what-could-venezuelas-opposition-do-with-a

With a simple majority of more than 50 percent of the National Assembly (84 members), the opposition can:

-Issue a vote of no confidence in the Vice President and cabinet Ministers
-Investigate and question public officials
-Have a deciding role in the national budget and debt debates
-Approve an amnesty law
-Select the members of the Supreme Court of Justice
-Approve laws on health, justice and basic goods
-Name ambassadors
-Convene national referendums on matters of special importance and amendments to the Constitution (with National Assembly -approval)
-Attribute to states or municipalities certain issues that currently fall under national competence
-Authorize the President to leave the country (for 5 days)
-Elect the President of the National Assembly, and its two Vice Presidents
-Indict congressmen

With a qualified majority of 3/5 of the National Assembly (101 members), the opposition can:

-Decide that a vote of no confidence in the Vice President or cabinet Ministers should lead to their dismissal, and subsequently dismiss them
-Authorize presidential decrees allowing expanded executive authority (so-called “enabling laws” or “leyes habilitantes”
-Appoint members of the National Electoral Council (CNE)
-Remove members of the CNE, provided it is backed by a ruling by the Supreme Court

With an absolute majority of 2/3 the National Assembly (112 members), the opposition can:

-Remove Supreme Court justices in cases of gross misconduct
-Subject any bills under discussion in the National Assembly to approval by referendum
-Convene a National Constituent Assembly, as well as a recall referendum for President Maduro
-Submit international treaties, conventions or agreements to referendums
-Pass and modify any draft organic law (laws which determine the fundamental political principles of a government)

The biggest problem will be the Chavista judiciary - all the "judges" are party shills and will rule as they like. Cleaning out this nest of true believer regime loyalists will take time.

 

[untermensche]

there is a lot at stake

For the people of Venezuela, nobody else.

They may regress to their former apartheid state dominated by foreign business interests as some seem to long for.

Let's hope not.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

The biggest problem will be the Chavista judiciary - all the "judges" are party shills and will rule as they like. Cleaning out this nest of true believer regime loyalists will take time.

Maybe a lot more than you suspect (see below).

With an absolute majority of 2/3 the National Assembly (112 members), the opposition can:

-Remove Supreme Court justices in cases of gross misconduct
-Subject any bills under discussion in the National Assembly to approval by referendum
-Convene a National Constituent Assembly, as well as a recall referendum for President Maduro
-Submit international treaties, conventions or agreements to referendums
-Pass and modify any draft organic law (laws which determine the fundamental political principles of a government)

Actually, removing Supreme Court justices might be impossible even with a 3/3 majority (i.e., all members), for the following reason:

In addition to the 2/3 majority, the Constitution apparently requires (article 265) a fault previously found to be serious by "Poder Ciudadano" (that means "Power of the Citizens" or something like that - there is more than one interpretation -, but it's actually another organ of the state, controlled by Chavists).
Since Poder Ciudadano is controlled by Chavists, it very probably wouldn't allow the National Assembly to remove any Supreme Court justices.
I say "apparently" because the clause is somewhat ambiguous, but if the matter is taken to the Supreme Court, I'd say they will also very probably interpret it demanding a specific previous action by Poder Ciudadano, rather than a general disposition.
Now, the National Assembly can remove the members of Poder Ciudadano by an unspecified (I suppose simple) majority...as long as they have a previous approval of the Supreme Court. (article 279)

There appears to be no way in practice to remove a Supreme Court justice by the usual method.
An alternative methods would be to call a constitutional convention, and write a new constitution.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Nothing crazy about Chavez talking about the US causing trouble. And doing it with accomplices, like Britain or bribed nationals, all the time.

The US, not Chavez is the real problem in the region.

But the US right has everything upside down, so no reason to think they would understand this.

You can't accept the fact that Venezuela fucked itself so you ass-u-me that the problems were caused by outside intervention.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Update: the two remaining seats when to the MUD, which makes a total of 109. Adding the 3 indigenous seats - the MUD claims are on their side -, that's 112, reaching the 2/3 supermajority.

 

[untermensche]

Nothing crazy about Chavez talking about the US causing trouble. And doing it with accomplices, like Britain or bribed nationals, all the time.

The US, not Chavez is the real problem in the region.

But the US right has everything upside down, so no reason to think they would understand this.

You can't accept the fact that Venezuela fucked itself so you ass-u-me that the problems were caused by outside intervention.

The US supported a coup to overturn their elections.

Whenever we discover what the US is up to in secret we find it is trying to undermine governments it doesn't like using all kinds of illegal tactics.

Including economic warfare.

I simply refuse to be a naive as you appear.

- - - Updated - - -

Update: the two remaining seats when to the MUD, which makes a total of 109. Adding the 3 indigenous seats - the MUD claims are on their side -, that's 112, reaching the 2/3 supermajority.

The world is saved.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

A landslide victory like that is supporting evidence of no major foul play.

 

[untermensche]

A landslide victory like that is supporting evidence of no major foul play.

There has never been any inordinate foul play.

Far less than say Ohio or Florida.

It is a myth created by US opponents of Chavez and his democratic victories.

 

[maxparrish]

A landslide victory like that is supporting evidence of no major foul play.

Unfortunately, it is only evidence that 'major foul play' could not fully overcome the massive vote against the Chavistas. Had their been NO FOUL PLAY, the regime would have been denied access to the government coffers and been barred from using and threatening civil servants, barred from censoring and taking over most of the press, and from barring the main leader Lopez and the six leaders of the opposition. The defeat would have been greater (and that does not include the fact that the Chavistas had already passed laws against absentee voting for ex-pats...if the 1,000,000 who fled overseas wished to vote they had to fly back to the country).

IF MUD has full access to the voting tallies, and can examine the ballots, we can be reasonably sure the election was somewhat kosher. If not, there may be another 5 or six seats denied them (hence their shortfall from 112-113 as they had predicted).

We shall see how many hanging chads, intentionally confusing ballots, and other tricks were at play...hmmmm?