Climate Skeptics Swayed by Consensus, Not Evidence

[fromderinside]

Oh, my, indeed--cherry picking at work.

Note that they are only looking at 20 degrees south to 20 degrees north.

In practice we are seeing less warming in the tropics and more in the polar regions.

If by "cherry picking" you mean that some other set of unselected data would somehow offset the implications of this discrepancy then it is little more than wishful thinking. It is well known that much of the Earth’s global mean temperature variability originates in the tropics, and that is where the models consistently predict more rapid warming - which is also the place where the disparity between model results and observations are greatest. If one wishes to see if simulations and trend observations are compatible trends, this region should provide a clear signature of the trajectory of the climate system under enhanced greenhouse forcing.

That, at a latitude 62.5 models and observations eventually converge is of little consolation. Global Climate Models that are only accurate for Great Slave Lake in the Yukon but increasingly useless for all points south is not going to 'save' your argument.

Oh my, sure enough.

If you agree that water distribution is at the core of temperature change then it makes much sense to ignore tropical temps and pay strict attention to arctic temps. Shifting water from solid form to liquid form should be decisive for humans one would think.

 

[Underseer]

If by "cherry picking" you mean that some other set of unselected data would somehow offset the implications of this discrepancy then it is little more than wishful thinking. It is well known that much of the Earth’s global mean temperature variability originates in the tropics, and that is where the models consistently predict more rapid warming - which is also the place where the disparity between model results and observations are greatest. If one wishes to see if simulations and trend observations are compatible trends, this region should provide a clear signature of the trajectory of the climate system under enhanced greenhouse forcing.

That, at a latitude 62.5 models and observations eventually converge is of little consolation. Global Climate Models that are only accurate for Great Slave Lake in the Yukon but increasingly useless for all points south is not going to 'save' your argument.

Oh my, sure enough.

If you agree that water distribution is at the core of temperature change then it makes much sense to ignore tropical temps and pay strict attention to arctic temps. Shifting water from solid form to liquid form should be decisive for humans one would think.

Not if you have religious reasons to ignore evidence. Then facts become very unimportant.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Oh, my, indeed--cherry picking at work.

Note that they are only looking at 20 degrees south to 20 degrees north.

In practice we are seeing less warming in the tropics and more in the polar regions.

If by "cherry picking" you mean that some other set of unselected data would somehow offset the implications of this discrepancy then it is little more than wishful thinking. It is well known that much of the Earth’s global mean temperature variability originates in the tropics, and that is where the models consistently predict more rapid warming - which is also the place where the disparity between model results and observations are greatest. If one wishes to see if simulations and trend observations are compatible trends, this region should provide a clear signature of the trajectory of the climate system under enhanced greenhouse forcing.

That, at a latitude 62.5 models and observations eventually converge is of little consolation. Global Climate Models that are only accurate for Great Slave Lake in the Yukon but increasingly useless for all points south is not going to 'save' your argument.

Oh my, sure enough.

The original models didn't realize that a disproportionate amount of the heat would show up in the polar regions--thus they overstated tropical warming. That's not the same as saying they overstated total warming, though.

When you see a qualifier on data like the 20S-20N this graph carries with no explanation as to why you should be very wary.

 

[WAB]

Hey, I got an idear. How about we pray to the BiG Kahuna (God: or Eru©, who in Arda is called Illuvatar) for another Great Global Flood, instead of Global Warming, that way the Great Unwashed can get a Good bath?



Oh, wait...