Could World War I hven been stopped?

[SLD]

Considering all that was happening in Europe in 1914, it has always seemed to me that World War I was inevitable, and that by June, 1914 there was no stopping the march to war. The Assassination of the Archduke was really must the last step in a long history of causes of the war.

But many historians now see this differently, arguing that a seeries of misjudgments by diplomats led both sides to blunder into war. Certainly they did, starting with Austria's foreign minister, Berchtold assumptions about the ultimatum to Serbia. The German Chancellor, Bethmann Hollweg even undermined the Kaiser's moves towards conciliation. The same is true of Russian diplomats who pressured the Tsar towards full Russian mobilization. British indecisiveness also encouraged Germany to act more aggressively. All in all the diplomats failed to understand what was about to be unleashed, even though some prescience is demonstrated by the Monarchs. The Assassinated Archduke had stated that a general war would be disastrous for both Russia and Austria. Whilhelm and his cousins the Tsar and King George were reluctant to get involved.

But in a larger sense, the failures of these diplomats is reflected in the general atmosphere in their home countries for war. The Austrian people wanted war with Serbia. The French people relished a war of revenge against Germany. On July 31st a French pacifist, Juan Juares, leader of the
Socialist party was assassinated - his killer eventually acquitted. Notice the famous picture of Munich in 1914- the crowd was ready to all sign up, imcluding an enthusiastic Austrian, Herr Hitler. The clamor for war was simply too great for leaders to ignore. It had almost broken out several times in the decade previous - one diplomatic crisis after another. The people seem both resigned to its inevitability and relieved it was finally getting going. Little did they know.

So could it have been stopped by that point? If diplomacy had prevailed better in 1914 would the war have just started again a year later?

SLD

 

[steve_bnk]

I read in Kissinger's book Diplomacy that there was almost an air of celebration. Parties and parades.

People thought it would be the usual war. A few battles, negotiations, gentlemanly handshakes between generals, and everybody would go home.

No one foresaw the effects the advances in weapons would have.

 

[Sarpedon]

I believe it could have. If Kaiser Wilhelm had given qualified support to Austria in their demands against Serbia, perhaps asked to see the terms before the ultimatum was issued, the whole thing could have been avoided.

Wilhelm and Nicholas were the keys. If those two had huddled, they might have come up with something suitable for everyone. Remember they were all family. Franz Ferdinand, Nicholas, Wilhelm, George. They counted on this preventing serious war, but never did anything to ensure that. Nicholas didn't approve of the assassination of his cousin, but Russia's sentiments were pro Serbia. If they had talked, they might have found an acceptable common ground.

But nobody talked. Wilhelm gave Austria the blank check, and they spent it.

 

[Bronzeage]

There has never been a war which could not have been prevented, if everyone had the proper foresight.

 

[steve_bnk]

According to the FOX conservative pundits, the Syrian and Ukrainian crises could have been avoided if only Obama had ...

Hind sight is always 20-20.

Woulda coulda shoulda...

The Ukrainian situation could easily have an incident that gets out of control leading to Russian and American forces colliding.

Are there actions Obama can take that absolutely assure a good result? Who knows.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

There has never been a war which could not have been prevented, if everyone had the proper foresight.

Foresight, maturity, intelligence, vision, love of children, etc. There isn't anything about war that a decent person finds attractive.

 

[Bronzeage]

There has never been a war which could not have been prevented, if everyone had the proper foresight.

Foresight, maturity, intelligence, vision, love of children, etc. There isn't anything about war that a decent person finds attractive.

Wars are started by people who think they can get a better deal by fighting. The critical element of starting a war is having the power to do so. Something about this power changes the perspective of a person and suddenly a perfectly decent person finds himself ready to make decisions which will lead to death and destruction.

 

[Draconis]

I don't think something that could be called World War I could have been avoided. For instance, Germany wanted its "place in the sun", and that would not have changed until it was actually defeated in war. With nowhere worthwhile left to conquer outside Europe, the only way to get an overseas empire like everyone else was to threaten European nations locally and hope Britain stayed out. Such bullying could not be left unchallenged indefinitely. Perhaps we should be glad it happened when it did, for perhaps a few decades later such a war might have included nukes.

What's interesting to me is the roots of wars are planted in previous wars - you'd think people would learn, but then someone takes advantage of previous grudges and it all starts again.

 

[steve_bnk]

Europe did learn. The EU and NATO. Better to build hot tubs and make wine and cheese than to make war.

North Korea is an anachronism from WWII and the Cold War.

Same with Putin. Russia may eventually bring Ukraine under Russia control, but Russia can never prevail against NATO. Putin can try blackmail on energy supplies to Europe, but Europe can change over to other sources and Russia collapses. There is no conformational scenario in which Russia gains. Doesn't mean a ray Russian Putin won't risk it by doing something like shooting down a US plane in international space. Definitely a risk there.

China is saber rattling and making outrageous maritime clams, but it is integrated into the world economy. If it goes to war it risks its economic gains and then internal rebellion.

Iran is saber rattling, but they have no major capacity to wage war. A few years back Netanyahu on camera said he did not think Iran would be irrational with nukes. Iran initaiting a war would men the economic and military end of the Iranian theocracy.

Once in a long while there are reports of border issues from South America, but seems quiet from up here.