Covid-19 miscellany

[Jimmy Higgins]

Australia went all stupid and did what TSwizzle and Metaphor were begging for, and went from 300k cases in December to currently 5.5 million cases today. The TSwizzles and Metaphors were all about opening the flood gates while the river was above flood stage, and success and freedom. Thankfully, Omicron isn't as deadly, so the Aussies were exposed to a lesser form of the virus (so less than 6000 deaths) than Delta which seemed just as good to expose people to according to our Pro-Covid posters.

Which goes to show that even if someone gets it right, there will be others demanding improvement (read failure).

I don't know how much wrongness you can pack into a single post, but you've certainly given it your all.

That page shows 245,000 currently active cases and 3.25m cases ever, not "5.5 million cases today", which would be 1/5 of the population of Australia.

I must have transposed the first number in deaths with the cases. That definitely in error. Also in error is that 5.5 million cases today being 1/5 of the population... while ignoring that 3.25 million is still around 1 in 10.

I don't know where and when you think I advocated "opening the flood gates while the river was above flood stage", but it's about as true as calling me 'Pro-Covid', which I'm sure you'll neither apologise for nor indeed think about ever again.

*spit take*

 

[blastula]

Hospitalizations are going up too, but not deaths yet.

 

[blastula]

In the US, you can now order a second set of free test kits.

COVID-19 Testing

Every home in the U.S. is eligible to order an additional 4 free at-⁠home tests beginning November 20. If you did not order tests this fall, you may place two orders for a total of 8 tests.

www.covidtests.gov

I ordered mine and got it in 3 days. First set took 4 weeks.

 

[Hermit]

Australia went all stupid and did what TSwizzle and Metaphor were begging for, and went from 300k cases in December to currently 5.5 million cases today. The TSwizzles and Metaphors were all about opening the flood gates while the river was above flood stage, and success and freedom. Thankfully, Omicron isn't as deadly, so the Aussies were exposed to a lesser form of the virus (so less than 6000 deaths) than Delta which seemed just as good to expose people to according to our Pro-Covid posters.

Which goes to show that even if someone gets it right, there will be others demanding improvement (read failure).

I don't know how much wrongness you can pack into a single post, but you've certainly given it your all.

That page shows 245,000 currently active cases and 3.25m cases ever, not "5.5 million cases today", which would be 1/5 of the population of Australia.

I must have transposed the first number in deaths with the cases. That definitely in error. Also in error is that 5.5 million cases today being 1/5 of the population... while ignoring that 3.25 million is still around 1 in 10.

Here are the correct numbers for Australia:

From 25/01/2020 to 01/12/2021 (676 days) total Covid cases rose from 4 to 211,654. That is an average of 313 cases per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid cases rose from 211,654 to 3,903,113. That is an average of 33,867 cases per day.
The ratio of daily cases between those two periods is 1:117

From 01/03/2020 to 01/12/2021 (640 days) total Covid deaths rose from 1 to 2011. That is an average of 3.1 deaths per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid deaths rose from 2011 to 5,728. That is an average of 34 deaths per day.
The ratio of daily deaths between those two periods is 1:17

A word of caution: How much the increase in cases and deaths is due to "opening the flood gates" cannot be determined from those calculations. The Omicron strain, which hit Australia around the 13th of December is said to be significantly more contagious and less deadly, while the Australian states and territories relaxed or abolished Covid-related restrictions to different extents and at different points in time. We don't have control groups to get a reasonably close estimate, and even coming up with a vaguely approximate one would take hours of locating, collating and analysing the necessary data.

Speaking of data, the numbers my calculations are based on can be perused here and here.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Australia went all stupid and did what TSwizzle and Metaphor were begging for, and went from 300k cases in December to currently 5.5 million cases today. The TSwizzles and Metaphors were all about opening the flood gates while the river was above flood stage, and success and freedom. Thankfully, Omicron isn't as deadly, so the Aussies were exposed to a lesser form of the virus (so less than 6000 deaths) than Delta which seemed just as good to expose people to according to our Pro-Covid posters.

Which goes to show that even if someone gets it right, there will be others demanding improvement (read failure).

I don't know how much wrongness you can pack into a single post, but you've certainly given it your all.

That page shows 245,000 currently active cases and 3.25m cases ever, not "5.5 million cases today", which would be 1/5 of the population of Australia.

I must have transposed the first number in deaths with the cases. That definitely in error. Also in error is that 5.5 million cases today being 1/5 of the population... while ignoring that 3.25 million is still around 1 in 10.

Here are the correct numbers for Australia:

From 25/01/2020 to 01/12/2021 (676 days) total Covid cases rose from 4 to 211,654. That is an average of 313 cases per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid cases rose from 211,654 to 3,903,113. That is an average of 33,867 cases per day.
The ratio of daily cases between those two periods is 1:117

From 01/03/2020 to 01/12/2021 (640 days) total Covid deaths rose from 1 to 2011. That is an average of 3.1 deaths per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid deaths rose from 2011 to 5,728. That is an average of 34 deaths per day.
The ratio of daily deaths between those two periods is 1:17

A word of caution: How much the increase in cases and deaths is due to "opening the flood gates" cannot be determined from those calculations. The Omicron strain, which hit Australia around the 13th of December is said to be significantly more contagious and less deadly, while the Australian states and territories relaxed or abolished Covid-related restrictions to different extents and at different points in time. We don't have control groups to get a reasonably close estimate, and even coming up with a vaguely approximate one would take hours of locating, collating and analysing the necessary data.

The control group is called New Zealand.

 

[Hermit]

From 25/01/2020 to 01/12/2021 (676 days) total Covid cases rose from 4 to 211,654. That is an average of 313 cases per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid cases rose from 211,654 to 3,903,113. That is an average of 33,867 cases per day.
The ratio of daily cases between those two periods is 1:117

From 01/03/2020 to 01/12/2021 (640 days) total Covid deaths rose from 1 to 2011. That is an average of 3.1 deaths per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid deaths rose from 2011 to 5,728. That is an average of 34 deaths per day.
The ratio of daily deaths between those two periods is 1:17

A word of caution: How much the increase in cases and deaths is due to "opening the flood gates" cannot be determined from those calculations. The Omicron strain, which hit Australia around the 13th of December is said to be significantly more contagious and less deadly, while the Australian states and territories relaxed or abolished Covid-related restrictions to different extents and at different points in time. We don't have control groups to get a reasonably close estimate, and even coming up with a vaguely approximate one would take hours of locating, collating and analysing the necessary data.

The control group is called New Zealand.

How so?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

From 25/01/2020 to 01/12/2021 (676 days) total Covid cases rose from 4 to 211,654. That is an average of 313 cases per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid cases rose from 211,654 to 3,903,113. That is an average of 33,867 cases per day.
The ratio of daily cases between those two periods is 1:117

From 01/03/2020 to 01/12/2021 (640 days) total Covid deaths rose from 1 to 2011. That is an average of 3.1 deaths per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid deaths rose from 2011 to 5,728. That is an average of 34 deaths per day.
The ratio of daily deaths between those two periods is 1:17

A word of caution: How much the increase in cases and deaths is due to "opening the flood gates" cannot be determined from those calculations. The Omicron strain, which hit Australia around the 13th of December is said to be significantly more contagious and less deadly, while the Australian states and territories relaxed or abolished Covid-related restrictions to different extents and at different points in time. We don't have control groups to get a reasonably close estimate, and even coming up with a vaguely approximate one would take hours of locating, collating and analysing the necessary data.

The control group is called New Zealand.

How so?

Lower case rate, though even they appear to be popping a bit now too.

 

[Hermit]

From 25/01/2020 to 01/12/2021 (676 days) total Covid cases rose from 4 to 211,654. That is an average of 313 cases per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid cases rose from 211,654 to 3,903,113. That is an average of 33,867 cases per day.
The ratio of daily cases between those two periods is 1:117

From 01/03/2020 to 01/12/2021 (640 days) total Covid deaths rose from 1 to 2011. That is an average of 3.1 deaths per day.
From 01/12/2021 to 20/03/2022 (109 days) total Covid deaths rose from 2011 to 5,728. That is an average of 34 deaths per day.
The ratio of daily deaths between those two periods is 1:17

A word of caution: How much the increase in cases and deaths is due to "opening the flood gates" cannot be determined from those calculations. The Omicron strain, which hit Australia around the 13th of December is said to be significantly more contagious and less deadly, while the Australian states and territories relaxed or abolished Covid-related restrictions to different extents and at different points in time. We don't have control groups to get a reasonably close estimate, and even coming up with a vaguely approximate one would take hours of locating, collating and analysing the necessary data.

The control group is called New Zealand.

How so?

Lower case rate, though even they appear to be popping a bit now too.

A bit?

On the 23rd of January New Zealand's Prime minister, Jacinda Ardern announced stricter restrictions, and to reinforce the point that this is serious she also cancelled her own wedding. On that day the 7-day rolling average of new Covid cases was 13.88/million. On the 6th of March the 7-day rolling average of new Covid cases reached 4296/million, exceeding Australia's peak of 4235/million on the 13th of January. New Zealand is definitely not a control group.

 

[TSwizzle]

Despite high vaccination rates, South Korea has a covid problem;

More than 10 million people in South Korea have contracted coronavirus as a surge in the highly infectious Omicron variant has caused a record wave of infections, officials have said. The number of dead has almost doubled since early February, leaving funeral homes and crematoriums struggling to cope. South Korea reacted to the initial outbreak with a strict regime of tracing and quarantine, but with 87% of its population fully vaccinated, they have been scrapped by Seoul, along with social distancing curbs.The percentage of intensive care beds occupied rose to around 64% on Wednesday, up from 59% two weeks earlier.

News

 

[marc]

Well the death count on World O Meters has hit a million US casualties.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[repoman]

Below 50% efficacy WAS a line that meant no go...

Not anymore...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Despite high vaccination rates, South Korea has a covid problem;

400,000 a day infected, 340* a day dying (*that is a lagging stat). 340/400,000 is less than 0.1%. So what is the point in bringing up the vaccination jab?

We know vaccination provides a nominal protection from infection from Delta and Omicron (and BA.2 is even more contagious). It provides a substantial protection (relative to unvax'd) from hospitalization and death. The stats are indicating as much. Yes, hospital beds are likely filling up due to the bulk of cases due to Omicron.

The government has also urged people to get booster shots, noting that more than 60 percent of those who died or were seriously ill had received no shots or only one. But vaccination alone has not been enough to end the pandemic.

link (sorry, it isn't the Daily Mail)

So about 6,000 dead in the last month. 60% of the death toll is the 13% that were unvax'd.
3600 of 5.25 million
2400 of 46 million or so

So again, a magnitude plus of protection from the vaccine.

 

[TSwizzle]

CDC makes a correction to the number of covid deaths recorded;

Last week, after reporting from the Guardian on mortality rates among children, the CDC corrected a “coding logic error” that had inadvertently added more than 72,000 Covid deaths of all ages to the data tracker, one of the most publicly accessible sources for Covid data. The agency briefly noted the change in a footnote, although the note did not explain how the error occurred or how long it was in effect. A total of 72,277 deaths in all age groups reported across 26 states were removed from the tracker “because CDC’s algorithm was accidentally counting deaths that were not Covid-19-related”, Jasmine Reed, a spokesperson for the agency, told the Guardian.

Teh Gruaniad

72,000, it's probably way more than that.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

CDC makes a correction to the number of covid deaths recorded;

Last week, after reporting from the Guardian on mortality rates among children, the CDC corrected a “coding logic error” that had inadvertently added more than 72,000 Covid deaths of all ages to the data tracker, one of the most publicly accessible sources for Covid data. The agency briefly noted the change in a footnote, although the note did not explain how the error occurred or how long it was in effect. A total of 72,277 deaths in all age groups reported across 26 states were removed from the tracker “because CDC’s algorithm was accidentally counting deaths that were not Covid-19-related”, Jasmine Reed, a spokesperson for the agency, told the Guardian.

Teh Gruaniad

72,000, it's probably way more than that.

Yup. Even if it were 10 times that, still a total of 300,000 dead. Meh... just a statistic.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Swammerdami]

CDC makes a correction to the number of covid deaths recorded;

... the CDC corrected a “coding logic error” that had inadvertently added more than 72,000 Covid deaths of all ages to the data tracker ...

72,000, it's probably way more than that

CDC found an error in its reports and corrected the error; . . . and that's a BAD thing?

By the way, at least two independent studies confirm that official statistics under-report Covid-19 deaths (mainly because of Covid deaths assigned to other causes) and suggest a multiple of 1.4. When the U.S. reached the million deaths "milestone" the true figure was probably about 1.4 million.

Reuters has an article reporting the effects of the anti-Vax hysteria in the U.S.A. About $2 billion is spent (wasted) in the health industry EVERY MONTH in treating unvaccinated people, compared with what would be spent if those people were vaccinated. Employers are starting to discriminate against the unvaxed; health insurance and life insurance companies may soon use vax status to help set premiums.

One teacher in California is unvaxed and has left her children unvaxed for "religious" reasons; she continues to work by taking twice-weekly Covid tests. The family plans to move to the more lenient Alabama at the end of this school term.

“I’ll get paid less,” said Royce, who expects to take a $40,000-a-year pay cut. “But I’m moving for my own personal freedom to choose.”

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Below 50% efficacy WAS a line that meant no go...

Not anymore...

Effectiveness against serious infection is still worthwhile even if it doesn't protect you from infection in the first place.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

CDC makes a correction to the number of covid deaths recorded;

Last week, after reporting from the Guardian on mortality rates among children, the CDC corrected a “coding logic error” that had inadvertently added more than 72,000 Covid deaths of all ages to the data tracker, one of the most publicly accessible sources for Covid data. The agency briefly noted the change in a footnote, although the note did not explain how the error occurred or how long it was in effect. A total of 72,277 deaths in all age groups reported across 26 states were removed from the tracker “because CDC’s algorithm was accidentally counting deaths that were not Covid-19-related”, Jasmine Reed, a spokesperson for the agency, told the Guardian.

Teh Gruaniad

72,000, it's probably way more than that.

Guardian? They'll take the sensational side whether it's correct or not.

And the undercount of Covid deaths is far more than 72k.

 

[TSwizzle]

CDC makes a correction to the number of covid deaths recorded;

... the CDC corrected a “coding logic error” that had inadvertently added more than 72,000 Covid deaths of all ages to the data tracker ...

72,000, it's probably way more than that

CDC found an error in its reports and corrected the error; . . . and that's a BAD thing?

I think making errors is a bad thing, yes. If it was indeed an error, who knows perhaps it was deliberate but most likely it was typical bureaucratic incompetence.

 

[Keith&Co.]

The SCOTUS finds that Biden is the Commander in Chief.
That no judge in the Judicial Branch is actually part of the military chain-of-command

The Supreme Court rules that Joe Biden is commander-in-chief. Three justices dissent.

The judiciary cannot be part of the chain of command.

www.vox.com

A lower court allowed sailors in the Navy, specifically SEALS, to claim a religious exemption from the direct order to be vaccinated. SCOTUS has decided that the military CAN issue orders, and expect them to be obeyed, and take action upon their refusal.

What's frightening is that the vote was 6-3.
Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch dissented.