Covid19 resistance

[TomC]

I heard some distressing news.
A work friend of my partner, Janet, got C19 a couple of months ago. It wasn't terrible, but she was off work stuck at home for a month. Then she tested negative and went back to work.

Well, a couple of days ago she started feeling sick again. She's home, waiting for current test results, but she thinks she's got it again. If so, that means that her previous bout didn't produce immunity. That doesn't bode well for "herd immunity" or vaccines.

In my very uneducated opinion.
Anybody got a more educated opinion?
Tom

 

[Jokodo]

I heard some distressing news.
A work friend of my partner, Janet, got C19 a couple of months ago. It wasn't terrible, but she was off work stuck at home for a month. Then she tested negative and went back to work.

Well, a couple of days ago she started feeling sick again. She's home, waiting for current test results, but she thinks she's got it again. If so, that means that her previous bout didn't produce immunity. That doesn't bode well for "herd immunity" or vaccines.

In my very uneducated opinion.
Anybody got a more educated opinion?
Tom

Not an expert either but it is my understanding that there's a small number of people who don't become immune from a one time infection for pretty much every disease. This is also part of the reason we give several doses of many vaccinations - 80-95% are actually immune after the first dose, but that's not good enough - and an even smaller number remain susceptible even after two doses.

That number of people who can get it again may well be a couple orders magnitude higher than for a textbook example of a disease you only get once, like measles, but as long is it is below 10-20%, it's no deterrent to herd immunity as long as a significant majority get their shots. (And from the few isolated report of people who may have gotten it a second time, it doesn't look like it is higher than that) It is, however a deterrent to being safe from getting yourself vaccinated in a sea of unvaccinated people.

If someone knows better please correct me.

 

[skepticalbip]

Not enough information. She could have caught one of the flu strains or something else. Only a test for covid-19 would tell for sure.

 

[Jokodo]

Not enough information. She could have caught one of the flu strains or something else. Only a test for covid-19 would tell for sure.

True for this one case. There seem to have been a few isolated cases of people getting it a second time though. I interpret the question primarily as asking what such a possibility would imply in general.

 

[TomC]

Not enough information. She could have caught one of the flu strains or something else. Only a test for covid-19 would tell for sure.

True for this one case. There seem to have been a few isolated cases of people getting it a second time though. I interpret the question primarily as asking what such a possibility would imply in general.

It was this.
I live in an extremely Trumpish place, southern Indiana. The numbers of people who ignore even basic precautions like masking(despite state laws!) is outrageous. I take care of my super high risk mother-in-law and it makes me angry and scared.

But this really bothered me.
Tom

 

[Jokodo]

Not enough information. She could have caught one of the flu strains or something else. Only a test for covid-19 would tell for sure.

True for this one case. There seem to have been a few isolated cases of people getting it a second time though. I interpret the question primarily as asking what such a possibility would imply in general.

It was this.
I live in an extremely Trumpish place, southern Indiana. The numbers of people who ignore even basic precautions like masking(despite state laws!) is outrageous. I take care of my super high risk mother-in-law and it makes me angry and scared.

But this really bothered me.
Tom

Also, measles for example has a much higher R0 than covid - which means the number of people that need to be immune for herd immunity is much higher for the former. Measles can effectively spread in a population with 5-10% susceptible individuals, covid needs about 30-40% by most estimates, although the exact figures will in both cases depend on climatic, sociological and cultural factors (time spent indoors, household size, and how common it is to hug and kiss casual strangers, fir example).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It looks like there are differences that are enough that a few people get reinfected.

 

[Jokodo]

It looks like there are differences that are enough that a few people get reinfected.

Have you seen any actual indication that it's due to differences rather than immunization being incomplete/probabilistic in the first place?

 

[TomC]

Not enough information. She could have caught one of the flu strains or something else. Only a test for covid-19 would tell for sure.

Doug called her today. He left a message asking how she was doing.

She hasn't called him back. I hope she's ok and C19 neg, but I don't know.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It looks like there are differences that are enough that a few people get reinfected.

Have you seen any actual indication that it's due to differences rather than immunization being incomplete/probabilistic in the first place?

In some cases genetic testing has confirmed that it's different strains. Exactly how they came to be reinfected is obviously not known.

 

[Jokodo]

It looks like there are differences that are enough that a few people get reinfected.

Have you seen any actual indication that it's due to differences rather than immunization being incomplete/probabilistic in the first place?

In some cases genetic testing has confirmed that it's different strains. Exactly how they came to be reinfected is obviously not known.

Different strains doesn't imply that's why they got reinforced.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

In some cases genetic testing has confirmed that it's different strains. Exactly how they came to be reinfected is obviously not known.

Different strains doesn't imply that's why they got reinforced.

If the second case involved a different strain from the first it's clearly not just a case of not being completely over it.

 

[Jokodo]

In some cases genetic testing has confirmed that it's different strains. Exactly how they came to be reinfected is obviously not known.

Different strains doesn't imply that's why they got reinforced.

If the second case involved a different strain from the first it's clearly not just a case of not being completely over it.

That's true. It's also not what I said. Cate to read my post again, I don't really like to repeat myself.