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Democrats trying to unseat each other II

So Mondaire Jones is running in NY10 now.



NY needs an anti-carpetbagger law, where anybody running must reside in the district for a certain amount of time before the election.
Otherwise it's just district shopping.
 
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "People over money. You absolutely love to see it. 💜
So proud of you, @SummerForPA!
Meanwhile, it is well beyond time for the Democratic Party to practice what we preach and ban super PAC spending from our primaries. Dark money should have no role in deciding elections." / Twitter

Responding to
Summer Lee on Twitter: "$4.5 mill 🔥🗑" / Twitter


Lara Putnam on Twitter: "So it's ironic ..." / Twitter
So it's ironic because folks in PA 12 got like 50,000 mailers telling us that all Joe Biden supporters should vote against Summer Lee: but it turned kind of the opposite happened🤷‍♀️

(Yes I know. What the chart really shows is that registered Dems in pro-Trump precincts were Steve Irwin's strongest supporters: not how they individually voted in 2020. Still—Biden vote was a stronger predictor of precinct-level support for Lee than even, eg, % Black pop. fwiw!)

Also notable that Irwin allies just spent ~ $3 million pounding the Pgh media market w/the message that the nominee Democrats have embraced is a radical extremist. Centrist suburban state leg candidates & statewide Dems are now left dealng w/that brand damage for Nov.
Worth it?🤷‍♀️

Anyway, there's an instructive contrast btwn the ideological/identitarian clarity clearly generated by the PA-12 race & local results in the GOP senate primary: where despite $$$ in attack ads, GOP voters seem to have decided they're all more or less the same & just thrown darts

Looping back to PA-12 to close this out: Given that the Allegheny County Dem establishment—electeds, allied unions, & all—went all in to oppose Summer Lee, the fact that Irwin only managed to win in the set of precincts that are 97% or more white is a pretty remarkable benchmark
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The numbers:
  • 40% Biden - SL 20% SI 60%
  • 100% Biden - SL 80% SI 10%
 
Summer Lee on Twitter: "I am so grateful ..." / Twitter
I am so grateful for every single person who helped this campaign deliver a victory for our movement in #PA12.

They told us we couldn't take on corporate power and win. That it wasn't our turn yet. That we couldn't change the way we build power.

But we proved them wrong.

This was never about any one person. This was about building a movement that reflected our community & delivered for us all.

Thank you to every voter, organizer, staffer & endorser who believed in us.

To every person that used this election to get involved for the first time.

And thank you to every person who ran alongside me to share our visions for #PA12, Jerry Dickinson, Steve Irwin, Will Parker, & Jeff Woodard.

Our democracy demands we give voters a choice to build the future they want for themselves.

Together, we can and will build it in #PA12.

Now, it's on to November.

The fight in #PA12 may be over, but the fight for the future of our fundamental rights & reproductive justice depends on delivering a Democratic Governor and Senator for our Commonwealth in 6 months.

Today, we celebrate. Tomorrow, we we keep fighting.
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Seems a bit like AOC, with her crediting of all those who campaigned for her.
 
SL is now ahead of SI by 737 votes, about 0.7% ahead. The Associated Press has called this race as a SL victory.

Steve Irwin on Twitter: "Thank you, #PA12. (pic link)" / Twitter
"As more votes have been tallied over the last few days and nearly every vote except some provisional and overseas ballots have been counted, it is clear to me that the math is not on our side.

I want to congratulate Summer Lee for winning the Democratic nomination for Congress in PA-12. She ran a formidable campaign, one that reflected her determination to make progress for people and give a voice to the voiceless. She will be an outstanding member of Congress and an inspirational leader for our region.

Thank you to my team and supporters, who have given this campaign everything they have, including the working women and men of organized labor. I also want to thank my family - especially my wife, Andi, for being by my side every step of the way, and my kids, who are the light of my life."
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At least he's a good loser.
 
Potential candidates flood incumbent-free New York House race — including de Blasio - POLITICO - "Hours after former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on MSNBC that he would compete for the newly-created 10th Congressional District, potential challengers piled up."

BdB: “It’s a homecoming. It’s my old Council district.”

Bill de Blasio and other New York Democrats eye rare, open congressional seat - POLITICO - "The rare open seat has prompted a scramble from potential candidates, including the former mayor."

Possible candidates:
  1. Bill de Blasio
  2. Mondaire Jones
  3. Dawn Smalls
  4. Jarrod Bernstein
  5. Daniel Goldman
  6. Carlina Rivera
  7. Simcha Felder
  8. Brad Hoylman
  9. Robert Carroll
  10. Jo Anne Simon
  11. Waleed Shahid

Looking at #NY10 at Twitter, I quickly found
Mondaire Jones on Twitter: "I have decided to run for another term in Congress in #NY10. This is the birthplace of the LGBTQ+ rights movement. Since long before the Stonewall Uprising, queer people of color have sought refuge within its borders." / Twitter

among many other announcements.
 
Derec said:
NY needs an anti-carpetbagger law, where anybody running must reside in the district for a certain amount of time before the election.
Otherwise it's just district shopping.
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You should tell that to Dr. Oz.
 
Turning to Oregon, in OR-06, Andrea Salinas has beaten Carrick Flynn, that crypto-billionaire-supported candidate. At 81% reported, AS 36.5%, CF 18.4%, others 11.5%, 9.9%, 8.2%, 8.0%, 6.7%, 0.4%, 0.3%

Issues | Andrea Salinas for Congress - Andrea’s Experience, Economic Justice, Environment, Affordable Health Care, Women's Right to Choose, Democracy, Gun Safety, Equity and Justice

But OR-05 is still stuck at 51% reported, from difficulty in reading some of the ballots. Jamie McLeod-Skinner is at 60% and Kurt Schrader at 40.0%, a difference of nearly 10,000 out of nearly 50,000 votes. So KS might be able to hold on to his seat with the rest of the ballots.
 
Waleed Shahid on Twitter: "AN ANNOUNCEMENT TO ALL MY SUPPORTERS AND @billdeblasio. I NEED TO SPEND MORE TIME WITH MY FAMILY. BILL, I WILL SEE YOU SO SOON. #TALEOFTHREECITIES #NY10 (pic link)" / Twitter
WALEED SHAHID SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN IN NY-10
THE TALE OF THREE CITIES COMES TO AN END

Twelve hours after launching a barrier-smashing and record-breaking campaign, Bill de Blasio adversary, Kenyan-born Muslim socialist, and Democratic candidate Waleed Shahid has announced that he is suspending his campaign until further notice. On early Saturday morning, the campaign's Field Director Lis Smith announced she was departing the campaign due to creative differences.

"ASSALAMUALAIKUM. DEAR BILL, I'M SUSPENDING MY CAMPAIGN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE TO SPEND TIME WITH MY FAMILY.

THANK YOU FOR ALL THE RUPEES. I CANNOT GIVE THEM BACK.

THIS TALE OF THREE CITIES IS NOT GOING AWAY. BUT PEOPLE TELL ME WE ARE IN A TALE OF TWO-STATE SOLUTIONS.

WE WILL FIGHT AND KEEP OUR MOVEMENT STRONG.

I NEEDED WAY MORE MONEY.

I AM SO SORRY.

AIPAC, YOU THE REAL MVP."
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I don't know if this is serious or satire.

His Twitter bio: Very Senior Democratic Strategist. Spox, @JusticeDems. Fmr: @AOC, @JamaalBowmanNY, @BernieSanders. #YNWA. tweets are my own
 
Vote-counting trouble in Clackamas County, Oregon: Oregon Fifth Congressional District Primary Election Results 2022 - The New York Times

Clackamas County vote tally will likely stretch until at least next week, could leave key race for Congress hanging - oregonlive.com
noting
Clackamas County ballot counting could stretch to mid-June, unapologetic county elections head says - oregonlive.com

Two-thirds of Clackamas County ballots will need to be duplicated by hand due to printing error - oregonlive.com
The vast majority of ballots that Clackamas County election officials sent to voters have defective barcodes making them unreadable by voting counting machines, an error that will cost the county extra money and delay election results.

County Clerk Sherry Hall said Wednesday that about two-thirds of the ballots that have been returned to the county so far are marred by the error and require that the voter’s choice in each race be duplicated by hand. The county is preparing for a similar percentage of ballots returned in the coming days to have the same issue, she said. Election officials didn’t notice the error before ballots were sent out.
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noting
Printing error affecting many Clackamas County ballots will require copying votes by hand, raising county costs and delaying election results - oregonlive.com


Of the parts of the counties in that district, only 9% of Clackamas County's roughly 45,000 votes have been counted (uncounted: 40,000). The next worst is Linn County at 76% of 12,000 votes (uncounted: 3,000), then Deschutes County at 91% of 23,000 votes (uncounted: 2,000), Multnomah County at 93% of 11,000 votes (uncounted: 1,000), Marion County at 92% of 4,500 votes (uncounted: 400), and Jefferson County at 0% of 100 votes (uncounted: 100). Note that Congressional districts often include only parts of counties.

The current total is JMLS 60% - KS 40%, and I extrapolate from the ballots counted so far a final score of JMLS 53% - KS 47%.

KS would need 63% of the remaining Clackamas County votes to win, and that seems unlikely.
 
Primary election dates for which states, with maximum number of endorsements from the PAC's that I am tracking. Progressive incumbents have a * or **. A - means no candidates, and a -R means a runoff election. Updated with the new New York primary date: June 28 -> August 23

DateStates w/ Max Endorse
Mar 1TX 15
May 3IN 1, OH 9
May 10NE 2, WV -
May 17ID -, KY 4, NC 11, OR 7, PA 7
May 24AL 1, AR 0, GA 2, TX-R 15
Jun 7CA 5*, IA -, MS -, MT 2, NJ 3, NM 1, SD -
Jun 14ME -, NV 2, ND -, SC -
Jun 21DC 1, VA 3, AL-R 1, AR-R 0, GA-R 2
Jun 28CO 4, IL 6**, OK 0, UT 0, MS-R -, SC-R -
Jul 19MD 3*
Jul 26NC-R 11
Aug 2AZ 2, KS -, MI 7**, MO 7**, WA 5*
Aug 4TN 6
Aug 9CT 1, MN 6**, VT 1, WI 8*
Aug 13HI 2
Aug 16AK -, WY -
Aug 23FL 4*, NY 9**, OK-R 0
Sep 6MA 4*
Sep 13DE -, NH -, RI 1
Nov 8LA -

As I write this, Georgia and Texas are coming up.
 
Another NY-10 candidate: Yuh-Line Niou.

With such a crowded field, Mondaire Jones might have to move back to NY-17 and duke it out with Sean Patrick Maloney.

Biaggi Seeks to Block Sean Patrick Maloney’s Chosen Path to Re-election - The New York Times - "Mr. Maloney, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, upset some Democrats by opting to run in a district currently represented by a Black congressman."

Nicholas Fandos on Twitter: "NEWS: Alessandra Biaggi, a New York progressive, will challenge DCCC chair Sean Patrick in Aug. primary. Biaggi is channeling progressive ire at Maloney.

@JamaalBowmanNY is already backing her, called Maloney's moves last week “completely unacceptable" (link)" / Twitter
then
Based Tom 🇺🇸 on Twitter: "I'm surprised she is not running in #NY10. (link)" / Twitter

Because it has become so crowded. She was earlier running in NY-03, against Melanie d'Arrigo.

From the NYT, about Alessandra Biaggi,
She was first elected to the State Senate in 2018, when she was the face of a wave of younger lawmakers who toppled six conservative Democratic incumbents who had led the chamber in a power-sharing agreement with Republicans. In her victory over Jeffrey D. Klein, a former leader of the breakaway group known as the Independent Democratic Conference, Ms. Biaggi was outspent nearly 10 to one.

But the odds could be even higher this time around.

Mr. Maloney, 55, will enter the race with far more money, name recognition and institutional party support. The fifth-term congressman had more than $2 million in the bank at the end of March, and, given his ties as a party leader, could easily marshal far more in outside support if needed. (Ms. Biaggi said she had about $200,000 in her campaign account.)
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Among her supporters is Jamaal Bowman NY-16.

So AB is yet another progressive who primaried a long-time incumbent, like AOC and Ayanna Pressley and Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman.
 
lpetrich said:
Another NY-10 candidate: Yuh-Line Niou.
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Interesting. She is very far left, but also autistic. You don't see that much in politics.

With such a crowded field, Mondaire Jones might have to move back to NY-17 and duke it out with Sean Patrick Maloney.
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Why? If anything, he should run in the 16th. That's where he lives. Just like SPM lives in the 17th.
Previous districts are irrelevant. They don't exist any more.

And why should Jamaal Bowman be protected from a primary challenge? He is the one who primaried Eliot Engel. It would be poetic justice if somebody were to beat him in the primaries.

Biaggi Seeks to Block Sean Patrick Maloney’s Chosen Path to Re-election - The New York Times -
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She is a far left "defund the police" activist. She might conceivably win the primary, but I doubt she would win the general. The new 17th is more competitive than the old one.

"Mr. Maloney, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, upset some Democrats by opting to run in a district currently represented by a Black congressman."
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Again, the districts are not the same just because they share the same number and some of the territory.
And why should the race of a congressman play a role one way of the other?

Nicholas Fandos on Twitter: "NEWS: Alessandra Biaggi, a New York progressive, will challenge DCCC chair Sean Patrick in Aug. primary. Biaggi is channeling progressive ire at Maloney.
@JamaalBowmanNY is already backing her, called Maloney's moves last week “completely unacceptable" (link)" / Twitter
then
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Why should it be "completely unacceptable" to run in a district you live in? These fauxgressives are getting ridiculous.

Based Tom 🇺🇸 on Twitter: "I'm surprised she is not running in #NY10. (link)" / Twitter
Because it has become so crowded. She was earlier running in NY-03, against Melanie d'Arrigo.
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And she is switching to 17th out of pure spite.

Among her supporters is Jamaal Bowman NY-16.
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Another far left extremist.

So AB is yet another progressive who primaried a long-time incumbent, like AOC and Ayanna Pressley and Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman.
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To sum up fauxgressive "logic":
- primarying long term incumbents: ok
- running in a district you actually live in but where a one term incumbent also wants to run: not ok
 
"And while Mr. Maloney has attracted ire from fellow New York Democrats, he maintains the support of Speaker Nancy Pelosi."

Suraj Patel is running yet again in NY-12, this time against Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney. I call him the Indiana Catfish because he is from an Indiana-base hotel-magnate family and because some of his campaigning involved setting up fake dating-site accounts. Also running in NY-12 is Rana Abdelhamid, backed by Brand New Congress and Justice Democrats.

Chris Sommerfeldt on Twitter: "ANOTHER ONE: Even though she's 80, trailblazing former NYC lawmaker and prosecutor Elizabeth Holtzman is considering a run for Congress in the new 10th district.
Already running in the 10th as of this minute: @BilldeBlasio, @MondaireJones and @yuhline. (link)" / Twitter
noting
80-year-old former NYC lawmaker Elizabeth Holtzman considering run for Congress in same district as de Blasio – New York Daily News
The first woman to ever serve as Brooklyn district attorney and New York City comptroller in the 1980s and 1990s, Holtzman confirmed in a brief phone interview Monday that she is weighing jumping into the already jam-packed Democratic primary for the 10th congressional district.

“I have been considering it, but I don’t want to say anything more,” said Holtzman, who also served as a Brooklyn-representing congresswoman in the 1970s and was a member of the House Judiciary Committee during the impeachment proceedings against President Richard Nixon.

According to a source familiar with the matter, Holtzman recently contacted veteran political strategist George Arzt’s firm about potentially launching a campaign for the 10th District, which under a new congressional map will cover sections of western Brooklyn and downtown Manhattan.
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 Elizabeth Holtzman
  • 1941 Aug 11 - born
  • 1973 - 1981 - US House
  • 1980 - failed run for US Senate
  • 1982 - 1989 - District Attorney of Kings County (Brooklyn)
  • 1990 - 1993 - NYC Comptroller
"n the 1972 primary election, Holtzman upset Judiciary Committee chairman Emanuel Celler, the 50-year incumbent and the House's longest-serving member at that time."

She was the youngest woman elected to the House, at age 31. She was beaten in 2014 by Elise Stefanik at age 30, and in 2018 by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at age 29, someone who also primaried a long-time incumbent.

I recall something from a news story about the Abscam investigation. That was a sting operation for exposing political corruption, and some politicians took the bait. One of them said about EH that she's "too honest".
 
Not much new on PA-12, but OR-05 has a sizable update. The number of votes counted in Clackamas County has gone from 4112 to 4551 to 6757, and the estimated number of uncounted votes there from 30,000 to 11,000 to 8,000 -- a total of 34,000 to 16,000 to 15,000. JMLS now leads KS by 9485, a little less than the estimated number of uncounted votes, about 14,000. As Clackamas County votes are counted, the fraction for each candidate has stayed roughly the same, from JMLS 44% KS 56% to JMLS 45% KS 55%.
 
‘An uphill battle’: As de Blasio dives into congressional run, weary and angry voters await him - Gothamist
Bill de Blasio, Mondaire Jones, Yuh-Line Niou, Carlina Rivera, Maud Maron.

A Manhattan clash of the titans: Redistricting pits Nadler vs. Maloney in primary - POLITICO

Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney
"They’ve both been in office for nearly 30 years. They both chair powerful House committees. They both have affluent, active voter bases flanking Central Park."

"Nadler, 74, and Maloney, 76, were both elected to their seats in 1992. Nadler chairs the House Judiciary Committee, while Maloney heads the Oversight Committee."
“I’ve been asked to step aside my whole career. I’ve always been told that I had no right to run. I’ve always been told to shut up and get out of the room, and I’ve just kept working,” Maloney said in an interview Monday, after releasing a statement saying too many accomplished women “have been told to stand aside for the sake of men’s egos.”

The Upper East Side congresswoman plans to argue that her record of accomplishments outstrips that of her cross-town rival. “The main difference is I get things done,” she said.

Her Upper West Side neighbor is leaning on his own resume to convince voters to pick him.

“I look forward to the opportunity to continue serving the West Side and I’m excited to introduce myself and my record of principled, progressive leadership more fully to the residents of the East Side,” Nadler said in a prepared statement Monday. “I want the voters to know that this great district belongs to no one but them, not any single candidate or politician. I hope to earn that right.”

...
The two representatives — whom political insiders say are not particularly close and have clashed on occasion — are now figuring out whether to fight for support on each other’s turf or drive up turnout in their own neighborhoods as they approach newer voters who’ve been shifted into the district.

...
Running against each other will present a challenge for two pols with much in common, political experts say. “It’s terrible for a strategist to have to say he is stumped, but I am stumped,” said Democratic consultant Jon Reinish.

“It’s very tough to say who has the advantage. Can you out-progressive each other? No, that’s very tough, because they’re both good on the issues,” he said. “They are old school New York City liberals, one from the West Side, one from the East Side. But there’s no visible or discernible policy differences between them. That makes this very hard.”
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Then mentioning the Indiana Catfish, Suraj Patel, running a third time.

Rana "Abdelhamid, who lives in Queens, which is not a part of the new district, has not made a decision on the future of her campaign."
 
In PA-12, Summer Lee is now beating Steve Irwin by 907 votes.

In OR-06, Clackamas County has 7,596 votes counted and around 21,000 votes to go.


Have I Been Redistricted? Search Your Redrawn Political Districts in New York - THE CITY

New York State's district loss was because of relative loss of population, and that was mostly in upstate NY. That caused a chain reaction of districts moving outward from central NYC.

District 13 stayed pretty much put, losing a bit of northernmost territory and getting the southern end of the Bronx.

District 14 lis now close to rectangle-shaped. It goes its southernmost ends, got a bit at the southwest, got central Bronx at its west, lost a northwestern projection, and got a bit at its northwest.

As a result, it lost its Jackson Heights district office, and also Flushing Meadows - Corona Park, home of the Unisphere, a big globe built for the 1964 New York World's Fair. Both are in Queens, and both are now in NY-06.

But it gained its satellite district office in the Bronx, an office that had previously been across the street from it, and it retained the AOC Organizing Base, in Westchester Square on Herschell St.

District 15 lost its eastern half, but now extends northward, then northwestward.

District 16, Jamaal Bowman's district, lost most of its NYC parts, and now is mostly in Westchester County. It now extends northward an additional half of its northern extent, now including White Plains.

District 17, Mondaire Jones's former district, now has an eastern half that extends twice as far north as the old district did, almost to Poughkeepsie.

District 18, Sean Patrick Maloney's former district, now extends northeastward by about its former size.
 
lpetrich said:
‘An uphill battle’: As de Blasio dives into congressional run, weary and angry voters await him - Gothamist
Bill de Blasio, Mondaire Jones, Yuh-Line Niou, Carlina Rivera, Maud Maron.
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DeBlowjob is a very unpopular ex-mayor, but who knows, maybe he is popular enough in the very lefty 10th.
It's a crowded field though.
A Manhattan clash of the titans: Redistricting pits Nadler vs. Maloney in primary - POLITICO
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I am surprised one of them did not declare a run in the 10th before it became as crowded as it got.

Then mentioning the Indiana Catfish, Suraj Patel, running a third time.
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What is his politics?

Rana "Abdelhamid, who lives in Queens, which is not a part of the new district, has not made a decision on the future of her campaign."
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I still wonder why conservative Muslims are so overrepresented in the far left of the Democratic Party (DSA/JD type stuff).
 
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