Democrats trying to unseat each other II

[lpetrich]

Henry Cuellar and Jessica Cisneros are now neck and neck. From Texas 28th Congressional District Runoff Election Results 2022 - The New York Times HC now has 175 more votes than JC out of a total of 45,209.


Marianne Williamson on Twitter: "Progressive Jessica Cisneros in an extremely close Congressional race in Texas tonight against Henry Cuellar.

Pelosi, Clyburn and Hoyer all vigorously supported Cuellar, who's the only House Democrat with an A rating from the NRA." / Twitter

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "On the day of a mass shooting and weeks after news of Roe, ..." / Twitter

On the day of a mass shooting and weeks after news of Roe, Democratic Party leadership rallied for a pro-NRA, anti-choice incumbent under investigation in a close primary. Robocalls, fundraisers, all of it.

Accountability isn’t partisan. This was an utter failure of leadership.

Congress should not be an incumbent protection racket and sadly it is treated as such by far too many.

The fact is those who fail their communities deserve to lose. They don’t need rescuing from powerful leaders who state they fight for gun safety, the right to choose, and more.

TX28 is an extremely close race. If Cuellar wins, leadership’s decision to go to the mat for a pro-NRA incumbent will be the reason why. If Cisneros pulls it out, they will have mobilized against a badly needed grassroots for Nov & fought against a historic victory. And for what?

The last time leadership waded in to save him, he thanked them by obstructing the party’s signature legislation, paving the way for the child tax credit to collapse and imperiling millions while taking a victory lap for it.

We can’t afford to reward such acts. We can do better.

 

[Derec]

Derec, do some research. Pennsylvania has a sore-loser law that dates back to 1937: When states adopted sore loser laws - Ballotpedia

Ah. Too bad.
Regardless, Buffalo mayor election is the prime example of why partisan primaries should be abolished. They tend to favor the more radical candidate even if a more moderate candidate is supported by more of the overall electorate.

 

[ZiprHead]

Derec, do some research. Pennsylvania has a sore-loser law that dates back to 1937: When states adopted sore loser laws - Ballotpedia

Ah. Too bad.
Regardless, Buffalo mayor election is the prime example of why partisan primaries should be abolished. They tend to favor the more radical candidate even if a more moderate candidate is supported by more of the overall electorate.

Why should people who are not members of the party have a say in who the party chooses to represent them?

 

[lpetrich]

Rep. Kurt Schrader Nears Defeat in Oregon Primary - "Progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner is poised to oust the Oregon Democrat in a stunning upset."

A Schrader loss would be stunning: The incumbent pulled in $2 million in outside super PAC support, half of it from the pharmaceutical industry he served in Congress, compared with McLeod-Skinner’s roughly $340,000 from the Working Families Party and Indivisible. Adding in his own spending, Schrader outspent his opponent 10 to 1 — and will likely still lose.

Schrader, whose opponent dubbed him the “Joe Manchin of the House,” joined last year with Rep. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., to push for decoupling the bipartisan infrastructure bill from the Build Back Better Act and cast the deciding vote in the Energy and Commerce Committee to kill prescription drug price reform. Nevertheless, he had the endorsement of both President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

McLeod-Skinner — a lesbian, rancher, and board member of the Jefferson County Education Service District — capitalized on Schrader’s weakness with Oregon Democrats by running a progressive, issues-focused campaign and convincing Schrader’s many local skeptics to endorse against the incumbent.

Seems like she may do well in the general election, the way that Katie Porter did in a borderline-blue district.

McLeod-Skinner made Schrader’s corporate ties an issue in the campaign, linking his cozy relationship with the pharmaceutical industry to his consistent undermining of the Democratic agenda. While McLeod-Skinner does not accept corporate PAC money, Schrader took in over $1 million from these interests this cycle alone. Schrader also benefited from massive independent expenditures from PACs tied to Democratic Majority for Israel (which has consistently targeted progressives from marginalized backgrounds). By March, internal polling found that the race was a dead heat, and Schrader began running ads touting his alleged support for many of the key proposals that he has worked to undermine.

So he lied about his record to get votes.

How did JMLS do it?

McLeod-Skinner said that attention to messaging is especially important when reaching out to rural and working-class voters who may be sympathetic to progressive ideas but wary of national Democrats. “Sometimes we’re talking about the same ideas in different ways. … To message correctly, you really have to show up, build relationships, and show a commitment to understanding people’s perspective,” she explained.

Her efforts paid off with numerous endorsements from labor unions, local parties, and local newspapers.

Schrader, meanwhile, relied on what appeared to be a half-hearted rescue attempt from national Democrats to salvage his campaign. Biden provided a lukewarm endorsement a few weeks before the primary. “We don’t always agree, but when it has mattered most, Kurt has been there for me,” Biden said.

Like what? Sabotaging Build Back Better doesn't help very much.

And while Schrader was endorsed for reelection by members of House leadership, they abstained from campaigning on his behalf, as they have for embattled Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas. While Cuellar — who is anti-abortion and actively under investigation by the FBI — carries more baggage for national Democrats, he has managed to maintain warm relationships with House leaders.

House Majority PAC didn't support him, but instead Carrick Flynn of OR-06, someone also backed by cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried. CF lost.

 

[lpetrich]

Derec, do some research. Pennsylvania has a sore-loser law that dates back to 1937: When states adopted sore loser laws - Ballotpedia

Ah. Too bad.
Regardless, Buffalo mayor election is the prime example of why partisan primaries should be abolished. They tend to favor the more radical candidate even if a more moderate candidate is supported by more of the overall electorate.

Why should people who are not members of the party have a say in who the party chooses to represent them?

That's a concern for open partisan primaries, but what he's talking about are nonpartisan ones, where some small number of candidates continue to the general election.

 

[lpetrich]

Democratic Voters Deliver Rebuke to Manchin-Sinema Wing - "Voters shrugged off an obscene amount of spending from super PACs to send a message to Democrats: Do something."

Cuellar Buoyed by Democratic Leaders to Narrow Lead in Texas Runoff - "The Texas Democrat was neck and neck with challenger Jessica Cisneros Tuesday night, thanks to support from Democratic leaders and millions in outside spending."

Cisneros’s campaign earlier this month called on party leaders to withdraw their support for Cuellar, and told The Intercept that refusal to do so showed “cognitive dissonance” in the party’s stated values and its actions with respect to the right to abortion. The Working Families Party helped convene progressive groups to coordinate independent expenditures in support of Cisneros. Groups including the PACs for WFP, Justice Democrats, Communications Workers of America, NARAL Pro-Choice America, and J Street spent just under $2 million in support of Cisneros and against Cuellar, who came within 4 points of losing his seat to Cisneros in the 2020 Democratic primary.

Ads in the final weeks of the race from an anonymous sender falsely claimed that Cuellar had been cleared by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in a probe that included a January raid of his home in Laredo. Cuellar has not been cleared, and the probe is reportedly related to an investigation into business interests in Azerbaijan, where Cuellar has ties with prominent oil executives. Other billboard ads that called Cisneros a “homewrecker” were bought by a firm called Big River Media, which Cuellar’s campaign has used in the past and is run by a major Cuellar donor. His campaign issued a statement and said it did not condone the billboard. The campaign did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

The expensive and unscrupulous campaign to keep an anti-abortion Democrat in Congress

In April and May, United Democracy Project spent $1.85 million on ads supporting Cuellar and attacking Cisneros. None of these ads, however, mention Israel. Several ads, however, contain misleading attacks.

One of the ads, for example, claims that Cisneros is "backed by groups" that support "cutting police spending." On the screen, however, only the words "Jessica Cisneros" and "cut police spending" appear.

...
This specious claim is then used to justify another United Democracy Project attack ad, which claims that Cisneros would cost Texas "thousands of jobs" because lower police funding would mean fewer jobs for police officers.

All of this is a somewhat toned-down version of Cuellar's own attacks. Cuellar claims Cisneros "would defund the police." He makes these claims even though Cisneros "does not actually support defunding the police."

Where Henry Cuellar gets much of his money from: Big Oil.

Cuellar recieves extensive support from the fossil fuel industry including the American Petroleum Institute ($1,000), Chevron ($10,000), Conoco Phillips ($11,000), Exxon Mobil ($5,000), Halliburton ($10,000), Hess ($15,000), Koch Industries ($8,500), Marathon Oil ($3,500), Marathon Petroleum ($7,500), Occidental Petroleum ($7,500), Phillips 66 ($5,000), Southern Company ($6,000), and US Energy ($5,000).

Cuellar has a 50% lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters — the lowest of any House Democrat. He routinely opposes environmental legislation.

Other corporate PAC donors to Cuellar include AT&T ($5,000), Comcast ($1,500), Dell ($5,000), Wendy's ($5,000), Toyota ($7,000), and Walmart ($2,500).

Cisneros does not accept corporate PAC money. She has also signed the "No Fossil Fuel Money" pledge, "which prohibits candidates from accepting contributions over $200 from oil, gas, and coal industry executives, lobbyists, and political action committees."

marissa martinez on Twitter: "new Cuellar ad funded by Mainstream Democrats PAC in #TX28 — his first ad that mentions women's rights as "under attack by extremists" and that he "opposes a ban on abortion." Cuellar was sole House D to vote against codifying Roe in 2021 (bill failed in Senate). (vid link)" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Carolyn Bourdeaux’s Primary Loss Breaks Off a Third Member of Gottheimer Gang - "The so-called Unbreakable Nine gained notoriety for dooming Biden’s agenda in the House. Now Democratic voters are picking them off."

On Tuesday, Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux lost to Rep. Lucy McBath in a member-on-member race Georgia prompted by redistricting. And in Texas, as of this writing, Rep. Henry Cuellar is slightly ahead of his opponent, Jessica Cisneros.

McBath, whose 17-year-old son was shot and killed in 2012 in a dispute over loud music, first ran in 2018 in the Atlanta suburbs as a proponent of gun control with the support of Everytown for Gun Safety. Her son’s killer was acquitted under “stand your ground” laws. In her run against Bourdeaux, McBath benefited from an influx of spending by American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Democratic Majority for Israel, as well as Protect Our Future PAC, which is funded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried.

What the Unbreakable Nine did:

The Unbreakable Nine eventually managed to split the two bills apart, and once the infrastructure bill was safely signed by the president, the centrists killed Build Back Better, as had been predicted and as had been the plan all along. Manchin pronounced it dead on Fox News in December.

About Jared Golden of Maine:

Golden was always an odd man out in the group, as his criticisms of Build Back Better were generally shared by progressives rather than the other eight obstructionists. He wanted a billionaire tax included in the package, demanded tougher drug pricing legislation, and opposed the state and local tax, or SALT, deduction giveaway. Unlike Vela, Golden has sponsored multiple efforts in the House to prevent former members of Congress from becoming federal lobbyists.

 

[lpetrich]

Silicon Valley PAC Is Bailing Out Abortion Foe Henry Cuellar - "The Mainstream Democrats PAC, founded by LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman, has gone all in to protect the Texas Democrat in his runoff against Jessica Cisneros."

Hoffman, the founder of LinkedIn, says he personally supports the right to abortion, but Cuellar’s is among just two other Democratic primaries his organization has weighed in on this cycle. The PAC spent $150,000 successfully opposing Nina Turner’s bid for Congress against Ohio Rep. Shontel Brown, and $1.5 million in what looks to have been a failed attempt to defend Rep. Kurt Schrader in Oregon.

Defending an opponent of abortion rights is a challenge in a Democratic primary, especially in the wake of the Supreme Court news, and the Hoffman PAC has squared the circle by suggesting that Cuellar is actually on the right side of the issue. The newest ad warns voters “with women’s rights under attack by extremists, Democrat Henry Cuellar has made it clear he opposes a ban on abortion. Let’s send Henry Cuellar back to Congress, so he can keep standing up for us.”

Seems like they wanted to say that he's anti-abortion but not some anti-abortion extremist.

So how does Hoffman’s PAC justify using that article to call Cuellar a defender of abortion rights? The AP notes that Cuellar felt the draft opinion overturning Roe “goes too far and that there must be exceptions in cases of rape, incest and dangers to the life of the mother.” Technically, then, Cuellar opposes a ban that does not make such exceptions, but he does support a ban. In 2021, Cuellar was the lone House Democrat to vote against codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law.

About this anti-progressive strategy,

offman’s intervention in the race comes as the faction is jockeying for position within the coalition and swapping accusations of blame for a coming midterm wipeout. Mehlhorn discussed the anti-progressive strategy with The Intercept. A version of the argument, known as “popularism,” argues that if candidates just run on messages that poll the highest, they will perform the best.

“If you look at America as a whole, and you want the fascists not to take power, what you need to do is trade a little bit of your enthusiasm in urban districts [and] transfer some of that enthusiasm and energy, just trade it for people who are actual swing voters who vote but make up their mind kind of at the last minute,” said Mehlhorn, arguing that defeating a candidate like Nina Turner in Ohio helps Democrats by preventing Fox News from using her to scare their base.

By backing a candidate like Turner, he said, “you’re going after the populist turnout by going for a populist, and you’re also handing a message that is going to motivate the shit out of the other side — because remember, they’re already amped to be motivated out of fear. If Nina Turner would have won that race, she would have been 20 percent of Sean Hannity’s chyrons out of the gate.”

Whether that’s true or not, Hoffman’s approach also relies on stacking the Democratic caucus with centrists who then actively work against the party’s legislative ambitions. Both Cuellar and Schrader were a key part of the so-called Unbreakable Nine organized by the dark-money group No Labels, with the intent of undermining the party leadership’s two-track strategy of passing President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better Act.

The problem there is that the right wing goes after even the most milquetoast centrist as some left-wing ogre. I remember how the right wing went after Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, and AOC remembered how the right wing went after Nancy Pelosi and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. That's why AOC decided that she was not going to be cowed by right-wing attacks on her.

IMO, I think that Democrats should try to make Republicans the party of the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene.

 

[Derec]

Why should people who are not members of the party have a say in who the party chooses to represent them?

Why should a party get an official representative in an election to begin with? Political parties are not mentioned in the constitution.

The reason partisan primaries are a bad idea is because they tend to select more extreme candidates on both sides and because in non-competitive districts the primary becomes a de-facto general election, with a significant portion of the electorate effectively disenfranchised.

 

[ZiprHead]

Why should people who are not members of the party have a say in who the party chooses to represent them?

Why should a party get an official representative in an election to begin with? Political parties are not mentioned in the constitution.

The reason partisan primaries are a bad idea is because they tend to select more extreme candidates on both sides and because in non-competitive districts the primary becomes a de-facto general election, with a significant portion of the electorate effectively disenfranchised.

No one has to be a member of a party to run in an election.

 

[bilby]

Derec, do some research. Pennsylvania has a sore-loser law that dates back to 1937: When states adopted sore loser laws - Ballotpedia

Ah. Too bad.
Regardless, Buffalo mayor election is the prime example of why partisan primaries should be abolished. They tend to favor the more radical candidate even if a more moderate candidate is supported by more of the overall electorate.

Why should people who are not members of the party have a say in who the party chooses to represent them?

That's a concern for open partisan primaries, but what he's talking about are nonpartisan ones, where some small number of candidates continue to the general election.

Why have preliminary voting rounds at all?

Why not just have Instant Runoff Voting, and as many candidates on the ballot as want to run?

 

[lpetrich]

Jessica Cisneros is not giving up.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Cisneros’ race isn’t over. If you’re in #TX28, we need you to track your mail-in ballot " / Twitter
noting
Jessica Cisneros on Twitter: "This is a close race. We have a call to action:
Track your mail-in ballot here: (link)
If your mail-in ballot was rejected, call our voter protection hotline: 956-413-7752 & we’ll help you cure it.
We won’t stop fighting until every vote is counted. #TX28 (vid link)" / Twitter

An interesting feature of this election is where each candidate is strongest. For Henry Cuellar, it's the Rio Grande Valley, including Laredo, while for Jessica Cisneros, it's the San Antonio area.

The same effect can be seen in the other races that I'm tracking. For PA-12, Summer Lee is doing best in urban areas, while Steve Irwin is doing best in more suburban areas. SL is currently ahead of SI by about 0.9%.

For OR-06, Kurt Schrader is doing best in south of Portland to north of Eugene, while Jamie McLeod-Skinner is doing best near Bend. The district is rather oddly-shaped, looking like two rectangles glued together near a corner in each of them. Nearly half of the nearly 30,000 Clackamas County votes are now counted, while counting is approaching completion in the other counties of that district. The vote fractions are 58.0% - 42.0% and I predict a final result of 56.2% - 43.7%. To win, KS would need a vote fraction of 86% of the remaining votes in Clackamas County, while his vote fraction there has been holding steady at around 54%, the latest value.

Elsewhere, in GA-07, incumbents Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux ran in the same district, with LMB getting 63.0%, CB 30.7%, and a third candidate 6.3%.

State Rep. Beth Moore trailed Nabilah Islam in state Senate District 7 race, but is not conceding defeat yet | News | gwinnettdailypost.com

State Rep. Beth Moore, D-Peachtree Corners, may have come in behind Nabilah Islam in the state Senate District 7 race, but she is not conceding defeat yet.

NI got 50.34% and BM 49.66%, giving NI a victory margin of 0.68%, barely above the recount threshold of 0.5%.

"This victory is our victory," Islam said in a message to supporters. "Thank you to every single voter, volunteer and supporter. I couldn’t have done this without you. I can’t wait to get to work in the legislature to improve the lives of every Georgian."

But BM isn't giving up yet.

"With a difference of only 78 votes total — and a difference of only 12 votes to trigger an automatic recount — this is the closest race in the entire state of Georgia," Moore said in a statement to supporters. "Therefore, the most responsible thing to do right now is to wait for all of the provisional ballots and UOCAVA (overseas and military) ballots to be tallied.

"We do not yet know how many there are or exactly when they will be tabulated, but I do know that our elections officials are working diligently to finish the job. Every vote deserves to be counted, especially in a race this close."

But NI is confident that she won.

"While we are dedicated to making sure every vote is counted, we are confident the outcome will not change," Islam said. "We won. I will continue to monitor the vote to make sure every person's voice was heard while also turning my attention to the general election."

NI ran for Congress back in 2020, but lost to Carolyn Bourdeaux.

 

[Derec]

Carolyn Bourdeaux’s Primary Loss Breaks Off a Third Member of Gottheimer Gang

GA7 is a safe Dem district (D+16). It would be better for the whole electorate to have a meaningful say in who will represent them.

- "The so-called Unbreakable Nine gained notoriety for dooming Biden’s agenda in the House.

First of all, things like B³ are really slightly watered down Bernie agenda. Biden is unfortunately too old and too weak to effectively resist being pulled to the left by Sandy Wormtongue et al.

And in Texas, as of this writing, Rep. Henry Cuellar is slightly ahead of his opponent, Jessica Cisneros.

To AOC's great consternation ...

Her son’s killer was acquitted under “stand your ground” laws.

That's a boldfaced lie! The shooter was convicted of first degree murder.

In her run against Bourdeaux, McBath benefited from an influx of spending by American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Democratic Majority for Israel, as well as Protect Our Future PAC, which is funded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried.

That's interesting. I did not know McBath is considered more Israel-friendly than Bordeaux.
The crypto kid donating is more concerning. I see crypto as basically a Ponzi scheme, and one particularly damaging to the environment at that. Bad development for Dems of all people to take crypto money.

The Unbreakable Nine eventually managed to split the two bills apart, and once the infrastructure bill was safely signed by the president, the centrists killed Build Back Better, as had been predicted and as had been the plan all along. Manchin pronounced it dead on Fox News in December.

And good thing they did. B³ was a bad bill that would have driven inflation even higher than 9% we have.
COVID response led to major government expenditures anyway, and it was a bad idea to add to that needlessly.
Not to mention that some planks of COVID response, like the expanded unemployment benefits, were kept going way too long, adding to inflationary pressure.

 

[Derec]

No one has to be a member of a party to run in an election.

But one has to be a member of one of the two major parties to have a reasonable chance to win elections.
In a jungle primary system, the power of parties would be diminished. Which would be a good thing.

 

[Derec]

Why have preliminary voting rounds at all?
Why not just have Instant Runoff Voting, and as many candidates on the ballot as want to run?

I would not be opposed to that.

 

[lpetrich]

New York Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney and Mondaire Jones Flee Blue Districts - "A court-ordered redistricting process nearly pitted Squad member Jamaal Bowman against progressive Jones, but Jones instead is targeting a new open seat in New York City."

Sean Patrick Maloney on Twitter: "While the process to draw these maps without the legislature is against the will of voters, if the newly-announced maps are finalized, I will run in New York's 17th Congressional District. NY-17 includes my home and many of the Hudson Valley communities I currently represent." / Twitter

Ally Mutnick on Twitter: "New: Rep Mondaire Jones (D) to me on SPM’s decision to run in #NY17
“Sean Patrick Maloney did not even give me a heads up before he went on Twitter to make that announcement. And I think that tells you everything you need know about Sean Patrick Maloney”" / Twitter

Mondaire Jones on Twitter: "The final maps ..." / Twitter

The final maps released today are the result of partisan politics–drawn by an out-of-state, Republican court appointee who has shown utter disregard for cultural, social, and economic communities of interest. It is designed to reduce the number of NY Democrats in Congress.

I have decided to run for another term in Congress in #NY10. This is the birthplace of the LGBTQ+ rights movement. Since long before the Stonewall Uprising, queer people of color have sought refuge within its borders.

I’m excited to make my case for why I’m the right person to lead this district forward and to continue my work in Congress to save our democracy from the threats of the far right. In my first term in Congress, I have worked hard to deliver real results for New York State.

I helped pass the American Rescue Plan and critical investments in infrastructure for New York City. I have also worked to increase affordable housing and have led the fight to protect the rights of women and LGBTQ+ individuals. I look forward to championing #NY10 in Congress.

Back To The Intercept.

On Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi threw her support behind Maloney, saying his move wouldn’t hurt Democratic prospects in the House. The only way that’s conceivable is if Pelosi and Maloney are confident he won’t actually have a primary.

Maloney didn’t want to primary Jones; he wanted Jones to step aside for him. When Jones’s staffer sent a Maloney staffer a pissed-off text message after Maloney’s announcement, the Maloney staffer shot back, “you guys live in 16 right?”

Then about how Mondaire Jones had been preparing for primarying Jamaal Bowman for a long time. JB responded:

But let’s also be clear about this: two Black men who worked hard to represent their communities, who fight hard for their constituents in Congress and advocate for dire needs in our communities should not be pitted against each other all because Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney wants to have a slightly easier district for himself. The Democratic Party should not tolerate or condone those who try to dismantle and tear down Black power in Congress. I’m proud that many of my Democratic colleagues have stood up and made clear that this is wrong, and I encourage more to do the same.

The solution is simple. Congressman Maloney should run in his own district. I’ll be running in mine.

Jake Sherman on Twitter: "Also — @RepSeanMaloney allies are spreading the message that jones would be ideologically better suited to another district.
But is that their belief on behalf of the dccc? Or a candidate who doesn’t want a member-on-member primary" / Twitter
Then Ritchie Torres of NY-15 in the Bronx:
Ritchie Torres on Twitter: "The thinly veiled racism here is profoundly disappointing.
A black man is ideologically ill suited to represent a Westchester County District that he represents presently and won decisively in 2020?
Outrageous." / Twitter
RT might not want JB fleeing to his district. What a chain reaction: SPM moves from 18 to 17, MJ moves from 17 to 16, JB from 16 to 15. Where will RT go?

 

[lpetrich]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Let’s gooo! Together we’ve sent 6 incredible new members to the New York State Legislature.
What’s another 7 more? Help them here: (link)" / Twitter

AOC Is Endorsing the Full Slate of New York Democratic Socialist State Candidates

Endorsements by AOC, whose approval can transform a campaign’s prospects, are often treated as mysterious koans — puzzled over by political insiders who ponder why she chose one candidate and overlooked others, why she used to make so few endorsements, or why she now makes so many. Today’s announcement is unburdened by any such ambiguities: AOC’s endorsement reflected solidarity with NYC-DSA’s platform and movement, against the forces of capitalism and reaction both inside and outside the Democratic Party.

...
State senate candidate Kristen Gonzalez, who lives in Long Island City and was active in successful campaigns there against Amazon and against the toxic natural gas NRG Energy plant, was overjoyed by the AOC endorsement when asked for comment on Wednesday. Her campaign is similar to AOC’s 2018 insurgent congressional bid: Gonzalez, who was a volunteer field lead for AOC’s reelection campaign, is running against a thoroughgoing machine candidate, Elizabeth Crowley — a cousin of Joe Crowley, the centrist who AOC unseated that year.

So AOC might help knock off another Crowley?

Ocasio-Cortez has never tied her political brand to the familiar “you-go-girl” type of individualism; her story is not one of political bootstrapping. “This is not about one candidate,” says Shrestha. “One candidate is not going to be able to do anything alone. We have developed knowledge as part of a movement.” The power of such campaigns is their relationship to the climate and labor movements, to organizing for housing, racial justice, and socialism.

“When people say, ‘If AOC can do it,’ they are talking about the movement — they are talking about the bigger picture.”

AOC is also honest enough to reject the common whine from the right wing that "I didn't need anybody's help".

As to building a movement that is larger than any one person's career, that's necessary for having lasting success in politics. Personality cults are self-limiting.

 

[lpetrich]

AIPAC super PAC funnels millions in dark money to attack progressive candidates in Democratic races | Salon.com - "Pro-Israel group spends millions on ads attacking progressives Summer Lee in Pennsylvania and Nida Allam in N.C."

A poll commissioned by pro-choice group EMILY's List at the end of March showed Lee with a 25-point lead over Irwin and a high approval rating among likely primary voters.

But a survey conducted by Mercury Public Affairs at the end of April, following the release of UDP's ads, showed that Irwin was ahead of Lee by one point.

But after being behind for much of the count, SL ended up ahead of SI by 0.9%.

Sanders declares “war” on GOP-backing billionaire-funded group pouring dark money into Dem primaries | Salon.com
"They are doing everything they can to destroy the progressive movement in this country," Sanders warns

 

[lpetrich]

I like this critical commentary.

To keep winning, progressives must do more than grassroots organizing: We need money | Salon.com
"Summer Lee's victory shows how progressives can beat super PACs: by fighting — and winning — the money war"

Lee and her allies were quick to credit grassroots organizing for her victory.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted: "People over money. You absolutely love to see it."

My former boss, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, chimed in: "When you fight from the heart and build a grassroots movement, you can win."

It's an inspiring narrative, especially for progressive candidates across the country who are facing historically unprecedented levels of super PAC spending on behalf of their moderate or centrist opponents. But it's easy to overlook an important fact: Lee received almost $2 million of independent expenditure support herself.

To be clear, Lee was still outspent significantly by pro-Israel super PACs and Irwin's campaign. But between her own campaign operation and outside support from Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party and others, voters likely saw almost $3 million worth of ads and mailers supporting Lee's candidacy.

Lee's progressive platform is broadly popular, and she ran a robust field program. But in the end she won by an exceedingly narrow margin, so it seems clear that every penny of that nearly $3 million was necessary to deliver a victory.

The progressive movement needs more people like Summer Lee in Congress. And it's clearer than ever that if we want to achieve this goal, we must organize money as much as we prioritize organizing people.

Reminds me of all the ads that I saw for Val Hoyle and Andrew Kalloch in OR-05 -- but not for Doyle Canning. Lots of TV ads and mailers for VH and online ads for AK, but nothing for DC.

I worked for Mondaire Jones in New York, who was outspent two to one by a Big Pharma billionaire and still won — and I just managed the campaign of Nida Allam in North Carolina, who was outspent close to four to one by Super PACs, and lost. I believe in the power of organizing, and that's the most important long-term work we must do to grow our movement. But even the best organizing can overcome only so much spending.

 

[lpetrich]

Author Maya Handa estimates that progressives can overcome a 2:1 spending ratio, but not much more, despite exceptions like AOC's victory over Joe Crowley in 2018.

How much did progressives spend?

• Victories
  • (2018)
  • (Rashida Tlaib) >> (her opponent)
  • (Ilhan Omar) ~ (her opponent)
  • (Ayanna Pressley) <~ (1/2)*(inc Michael Capuano)
  • (2020)
  • (Marie Newman) > (inc Dan Lipinski)
  • (Cori Bush) > (inc Lacy Clay)
  • (Jamaal Bowman: <~$2M) >~ (1/2)*(inc Eliot Engel)
  • (Mondaire Jones: >~$2M) <~ (1/2)*(his opponent)
  • (2022)
  • (Greg Casar) >> (his opponent)
• Defeats
  • (2022)
  • (Nida Allam) >~ (1/10)*(her opponents)
  • (Erica Smith) >~ (1/6)*(her opponents)

Progressives can replicate Summer Lee's victory, in many more places across the country. In fact, we can expand our margins of victory. But we must approach campaign finance with the same determined and innovative approach we have toward grassroots field organizing.