Democrats trying to unseat each other II

[lpetrich]

2021 Mar 3
Elie Mystal on Twitter: "
* Dems win power.
* Moderate Dems refuse to let Dems use power.
* Dems lose power.
* Moderate Dems blame progressives for being too radical.
* ad infinitum

We are at step 2 of the cycle." / Twitter
And risk going to step 3.

2022 Jan 13
Elie Mystal on Twitter: "We are almost at step 3 of this (link to earlier tweet)" / Twitter
Mikey on Twitter: "@ElieNYC Step 4 has been going on for the past year. (link to earlier tweet)" / Twitter

I note that because if the Democrats lose the House this year, the more centrist and conservative ones will blame the more progressive and their policies. Something like what happened in 2020.

 

[lpetrich]

Pro-Trump candidate in Florida is blaming election fraud for his humiliating defeat - Raw Story - Celebrating 17 Years of Independent Journalism
Democratic Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won with 78.7%, while Republican Jason Mariner got only 19.6% with the remaining 1.7% divided among 3 other candidates. However,

While McCormick was expected to win in the heavily Democratic district, her GOP rival Jason Mariner filed a lawsuit claiming there was a problem with the ballots in Palm Beach and Broward Counties.

"Now they called the race, I did not win, so they say, but that does not mean that they lost either, it does not mean that we lost," said Mariner.

“And we’ll also have some stuff coming out that we’ve recently discovered,” he said.

Seems like an incoherent assessment.

Writing for MSNBC, Steve Benen contends that while the merits of Mariner's lawsuit will play out in court, it could be a worrisome sign that more and more Republican politicians will claim voter fraud or irregularities as a means to challenge their election losses in the future.

"What matters here is not just conspiracy theories, pointless litigation, and partisan whining about voters' verdicts," Benen writes. "Rather, the far more unsettling concern is the establishment of a new normal in Republican politics — one in which the only election results many in the GOP consider legitimate are the ones in which Democratic candidates lose."

I checked on Florida's 20th Congressional District - Ballotpedia
SCMC's late predecessor, Alcee Hastings, won with similar margins in earlier elections.

• 2020: 78.7% - 21.3%
• 2018: (no challenger)
• 2016: 80.3% - 19.7%
• 2014: 81.6% - 18.4%
• 2012: 87.9% - 12.1%
• 2010: 79.1% - 20.9%
• 2008: 82.2% - 17.8%
• 2006: (no challenger)
• 2004: (no challenger)
• 2002: 77.5% - 22.5%
• 2000: 76.3% - 23.7%
• 1998: (no challenger)
• 1996: 73.5% - 26.5%
• 1994: (no challenger)
• 1992: 58.5% - R 31.1% - I 10.3%

So SCMC's victory this year was a typical-sized victory for a Democratic candidate in her district.

SCMC challenged AH in the 2018 and 2020 primaries, without much success.

• 2020: 30.7% - 69.3%
• 2018: 26.2% - 73.8%

 

[Harry Bosch]

2021 Mar 3
Elie Mystal on Twitter: "
* Dems win power.
* Moderate Dems refuse to let Dems use power.
* Dems lose power.
* Moderate Dems blame progressives for being too radical.
* ad infinitum
We are at step 2 of the cycle." / Twitter
And risk going to step 3.

2022 Jan 13
Elie Mystal on Twitter: "We are almost at step 3 of this (link to earlier tweet)" / Twitter
Mikey on Twitter: "@ElieNYC Step 4 has been going on for the past year. (link to earlier tweet)" / Twitter

I note that because if the Democrats lose the House this year, the more centrist and conservative ones will blame the more progressive and their policies. Something like what happened in 2020.

Moderate and conservative dems are just like everyone else - they desire to be reelected. And progressives have a tendency to be easily demoralized and not motivated to vote in off cycle years. If the progressives want all their programs passed, they need to demonstrate that they won't scurry away after every two years.

 

[lpetrich]

What you call "scurrying away" is what they would call being disenchanted with a candidate who does not keep his promises.

 

[Jarhyn]

What you call "scurrying away" is what they would call being disenchanted with a candidate who does not keep his promises.

So, Biden's done a pretty appreciable job of a lot of it. Way better than Obama to be sure, even if the senate lacks clear leverage.

 

[Harry Bosch]

What you call "scurrying away" is what they would call being disenchanted with a candidate who does not keep his promises.

Well, I shouldn't have said scurring away. I didn't mean to insult. But politicians are people, just like you and I. They are going to work the hardest for their customers (voters) that they can depend upon. And recent history (under Clinton and Obama) shows that the far left doesn't show up to vote in off years very well. Of course politicians are going to nervous in going all in. I don't know if BBB is going to pass this year. Don't know. I promise you that if the dems can increase their tent in 2022, that it will get passed.

 

[Derec]

2021 Mar 3
Elie Mystal on Twitter: "

Ellie Mystal is a racist who thinks black jurors should nullify any trial with a white victim.
Here’s How Black People Could Use Jury Nullification To Break The Justice System
I also remember him saying that he thinks that police should be prosecuted for "murder" if the perp they shoot is armed with a realistic replica gun or even an empty real firearm because in hindsight there was no danger. As if police were clairvoyant!

* Dems win power.
* Moderate Dems refuse to let Dems use power.

Moderate Dems are allowed to have their own policy positions. They are not required to blindly follow the Bernie/AOC wing of the Party like Biden chose to do.

* Dems lose power.

Usually because of overreach.

* Moderate Dems blame progressives for being too radical.
* ad infinitum

And they are too radical.

I note that because if the Democrats lose the House this year, the more centrist and conservative ones will blame the more progressive and their policies. Something like what happened in 2020.

And they would be right. We already spent trillions on COVID relief (some of it misaimed or lasted too long) and infrastructure (admittedly, much needed) and the "progressives" want to spend more trillions on a smörgåsbord of new spending like expanded child tax credit. And that in midst of worst inflation in 40 years.

 

[Jarhyn]

he thinks that police should be prosecuted for "murder" if the perp they shoot is armed with a realistic replica gun or even an empty real firearm because in hindsight there was no danger. As if police were clairvoyant

So, there is the very real fact that no individual bearing such a replica or empty firearm that has ever shot a bullet.

I don't expect police to be clairvoyant but I do expect them to be reactive rather than strike first, even with bullets.

They can know it's not time to shoot yet because there hasn't been a "bang" sound.

Even if it means some of them get hurt and die.

If that's what being a cop had been about I'd be a cop today.

 

[Derec]

So, there is the very real fact that no individual bearing such a replica or empty firearm that has ever shot a bullet.

But you can never know until they shoot, and by then it's too late.

I don't expect police to be clairvoyant but I do expect them to be reactive rather than strike first, even with bullets.

When threatened with a gun (or a replica) response with lethal force is appropriate.

They can know it's not time to shoot yet because there hasn't been a "bang" sound.
Even if it means some of them get hurt and die.

Cops are expected to take on reasonable risk to life and limb. Not unreasonable level of risk.
You want to see more dead cops (and civilians too, as often perps pull their guns on other civilians) and fewer dead criminals. I think it should be the other way around. You pull a gun during a commission of a crime (e.g. a robbery) and you are fair game to be shot. Even before actually firing at police or civilians.
As far as I know, Malik Faisal Akram did not fire his weapon. Nevertheless, it is better he is dead than that any of the hostages of responding officer were injured or worse. The terrorist made his bed, and he needs to lie in it. Not other people.

If that's what being a cop had been about I'd be a cop today.

 

[Jarhyn]

you can never know until they shoot, and by then it's too late.

So, yeah, sometimes the bad actor shoots and it ends up too late for one person, perhaps the only person to respond.

Given that even officers have shit aim, and they practice all the time, it's generally not too late even then.

Also given that they are armored, this is yet another contingency.

When threatened with a gun (or a replica) response with lethal force is appropriate.

No, response with the brandishing of your firearm and a movement to the side, preferably with a good fake of they raise it, would be appropriate.

Anything else would be preemptive.

We give them armor to not be preemptive.

There are perhaps some corner cases like, Mexican standoff bluff style cases, but those are details from the subject of the common case.

Malik Faisal Akram

A known attacker with a known playbook shot by the FBI because he was under investigation and had made preparations for an attack.

 

[lpetrich]

Florida U.S. House candidate sues to get primary loss erased | AP News - November 30, 2021

Dale Holness alleges Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s support of a proposal that would pay most U.S. adults $1,000 a month was an attempt to illegally bribe voters. His lawsuit also wants counted 18 overseas mail-in ballots received from military members and others that were rejected by elections officials because they arrived after Election Day and, officials said, didn’t qualify for an extension. He also says Cherfilus-McCormick should be disqualified because she did not file a financial disclosure form with the U.S. House.

DH objected that one of SCMC's campaign promises is essentially bribing the voters. But that can be said of *any* campaign promise.

The two are headed for a rematch this year.

Checking on Federal Election Commission filings, all these Reps are running for re-election: AOC, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, Marie Newman, Mondaire Jones, Pramila Jaypal, Katie Porter.

-

Looking at AOC's recruiter, Brand New Congress, it is now supporting 22 candidates, 3 for the Senate, all newcomers, and 19 for the House, 5 incumbents and 14 newcomers.

BNC's offshoot Justice Democrats is now supporting 6 candidates, all newcomers and all for the House. BNC and JD have 1 cross-endorsement: Jessica Cisneros.

Both PAC's are supporting about half as many candidates as they did in 2020, at least at this time.

 

[lpetrich]

Jessica Cisneros is running against Henry Cuellar in TX-28, and the primary election is on March 1, a little more than a month away. But HC has gotten some bad publicity recently.

Henry Cuellar says he’s cooperating with FBI investigation | The Texas Tribune

The FBI was on the scene Wednesday near the Laredo home of U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar for what authorities described as a court-authorized ongoing investigation.

FBI spokesperson Rosanne Hughes confirmed law enforcement’s presence in the area but did not clarify what authorities were investigating.

Hughes said in a statement that the FBI was present on two streets around Cuellar’s house in Laredo “conducting court-authorized law enforcement activity.”

“The FBI cannot provide further comment on an ongoing investigation,” she said.

On Wednesday evening, Cuellar’s office released a statement: “Congressman Cuellar will fully cooperate in any investigation. He is committed to ensuring that justice and the law are upheld.”

FBI probe targets Rep. Cuellar’s home, campaign HQ in Laredo | MyRGV.com

At Cuellar’s home, located in the 8200 block of Estate Drive, federal vehicles were seen with cases and other items taken from the congressman’s house as over two dozen agents filed in and out of the residence Wednesday afternoon.

Two agents with a clipboard and camera in hand snapped photos of the trucks parked out front. The truck was again photographed and searched by agents using flashlights after the sun set.

Some activity was also observed outside the campaign office on Davis and Washington Ave. in the afternoon hours. Several government vehicles were parked outside. Two of them, a dark colored van and truck, drove later to the residence around 7 p.m. An agent wearing an FBI emblazoned jacket popped out of one of the vehicles and made her way to the home.

FBI conducts law enforcement activities at properties linked to congressman

Witnesses say the downtown office in question where the FBI was seen is 1519 Washington.

That address reportedly houses the Texans for Henry Cuellar offices as well as other separate private businesses.

 

[lpetrich]

FBI agents descend on Rep. Henry Cuellar's Texas mansion and campaign headquarters in investigation | Daily Mail Online

• FBI agents were seen photographing vehicles at Cuellar's home in Laredo
• They also executed a separate search at office where Cueller's campaign is headquartered
• Bureau would only confirm it is conducting an 'ongoing investigation'
• Cuellar said in a statement that he will 'fully cooperate in any investigation'
• The nature of the investigation remains a mystery closely guarded by the FBI
• Cuellar is a Democrat who has harshly criticized Biden's border policies
• He has also called VP Kamala Harris ineffective in her role as 'border czar'

FBI raid jeopardizes Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar's reelection bid | Washington Examiner - "House Republicans are spying a surprise opportunity to flip another Democratic-held district after the Laredo, Texas, home and campaign office of Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar were raided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation Wednesday."

Jessica Cisneros is noncommittal:
Jessica Cisneros on Twitter: "My full statement regarding yesterday’s events #TX28: (pic link)" / Twitter

We are aware of the news regarding Congressman Cuellar and the active FBI investigation. We are closely watching as this develops. In the meantime, we are focused on our campaign to deliver change to South Texas families and will not be making any additional comments at this time.

 

[lpetrich]

Progs POUNCE after the FBI raids the home and campaign office of Texas Dem Rep. Henry Cuellar – twitchy.com - in a right-wing site, but with lots of helpful links.

People for Bernie on Twitter: "Henry Cuellar's house being raided by the FBI? Sadly not very surprising given his low ethics. (link)" / Twitter
noting
Rep. Henry Cuellar Provided Extensive Favors to Border Security Lobbyists - "Perceptics, which sells license plate readers, has tapped Cuellar for favors since 2011. Cuellar faces a competitive primary on Super Tuesday."

Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Texas Democrat, has used his perch in Congress to push for funds for private prisons, drone surveillance, and increased border security enforcement.

The lawmaker has defended his record as part of his duty as a border lawmaker focused on national security, but emails show Cuellar acting at the behest of well-connected lobbyists for a government contractor.

Did HC go a bit too far in being on the take?


Daniel Marans on Twitter: ".@JCisnerosTX, who is challenging Rep. Henry Cuellar a second time, says little about FBI raid on his home.
But @justicedems, which recruited her to run, says in a fundraising email that the "race is blown wide open." (pix link)" / Twitter
That's Justice Democrats, and JD did indeed recruit JC.

 

[lpetrich]

The Justice Democrats themselves:

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "The FBI investigation at Congressman Cuellar's home and campaign office is highly concerning. The people of South Texas deserve answers, and the Congressman should be transparent about the purpose of the investigation. What is he hiding? (link)" / Twitter

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "While we don't know the specifics about the investigation, we do know Cuellar has a long history of conducting shady deals and accepting corporate donations from some of the most nefarious actors in the country: private prisons, the Kochs, and Big Oil. (link)" / Twitter


FBI says it's conducting a 'court-authorized' search of Rep. Henry Cuellar's Texas home - CNNPolitics

"The Department of Justice's Public Integrity unit is involved in the investigation, a source familiar with the matter told CNN. The public integrity section handles cases involving elected officials, including campaign finance and other investigations."

Public Integrity Section (PIN) | Department of Justice
"The Public Integrity Section (PIN) oversees the investigation and prosecution of all federal crimes affecting government integrity, including bribery of public officials, election crimes, and other related offenses."

What might be going on here? Being on the take a little too much?

 

[lpetrich]

In response to JC's "No Comment" statement:
AlicesRabbit on Twitter: "@JCisnerosTX His campaign manager is missing in action and has deactivated his Twitter account. I am sure this is going to turn into a very long and dirty story. Not surprised" / Twitter

I found out that Profile / Twitter now says "This account doesn’t exist"


Rick Treviño on Twitter: "Don't worry, @colinstrother & @RepCuellar, as long as you used incognito mode, the Feds can't see what you're up to. (pic link)" / Twitter

Rick Treviño on Twitter: "FBI - have you seen my friend @ColinStrother? He's been missing since the DOJ's Public Integrity Unit started investigating his boss @RepCuellar @CuellarCampaign
We haven't seen his shitty tweets in a while & we are scared Colin might be crying into his pillow somewhere.
lol (pic link)" / Twitter

South Texas Rematch Pits Centrist Incumbent Against Progressive | Bloomberg Government - "Colin Strother, a Democratic strategist who was Cuellar’s longtime chief political consultant, said Cuellar underperformed in Webb and turnout was not as strong as it should’ve been."

Google's search database has not been updated with the disappearance of that account. It says: "Democrat. Political scientist. Campaign Strategist. Quote giver. Campaign winner. Incumbent killer. Biz developer. People connector."

 

[lpetrich]

I got an email from ocasiocortez.com a few minutes ago. It was titled

A “Democrat” with a 70% voting record with Trump?

It stated that AOC was making her first endorsement of 2022, Jessica Cisneros for TX-28 against incumbent Henry Cuellar with his voting with Trump 70%.

AOC had also done that back in 2020. Back then, JC lost to HC 48.2% - 51.8%. So JC may have a chance this time.

 

[lpetrich]

Lee Fang on Twitter: "The Intercept, using hacked documents leaked online, found that border contractor lobbyists had ghostwritten Rep. Cuellar's letters and coordinated his legislative activity. "Our Cuellar firepower" is how one email described him. (link)" / Twitter
noting
Rep. Henry Cuellar Provided Extensive Favors to Border Security Lobbyists - from 2020 Feb 26 - a link I'd mentioned earlier

Waleed Shahid on Twitter: "“AN ADVISER TO Rep. Henry Cuellar, the conservative Texas Democrat whose home and campaign office was raided by the FBI this week, also leads a dark-money group that recently ran ads against Cuellar’s primary challenger, @JCisnerosTX.” (link)" / Twitter
noting
Henry Cuellar Aide Set Up Dark-Money Group That Boosted Cuellar - Jan 20

The Voter Education Foundation, linked to abortion ban advocates, sponsored ads against the conservative Democrat’s primary challenger, Jessica Cisneros.

An adviser to Rep. Henry Cuellar, the conservative Texas Democrat whose home and campaign office was raided by the FBI this week, also leads a dark-money group that recently ran ads against Cuellar’s primary challenger, Jessica Cisneros, according to Federal Election Commission and corporate records. Colin Strother, a longtime Cuellar aide and a consultant who has been embedded on Cuellar’s campaign, is also the head of the secretive Voter Education Foundation. The staffing overlap reveals Cuellar’s close proximity to one of Texas’s most zealous anti-abortion activists.

Cuellar and his inner circle have aggressively pushed the limits of campaign laws. ...

Strother was Cuellar’s campaign manager last cycle, though FEC records show he worked this year as an outside consultant. He was paid by the campaign in August 2021 — the most recent period for which records are available. Strother’s Twitter account was also mysteriously deactivated.

In December 2021, the group, a 501(c)(4) that does not disclose its donors, sponsored signs and ran a flippant TV ad that called Cisneros the “South Texas Jobs Grinch.” ...

Though Strother was not working for Cuellar’s office in Washington at the time, documents from a court case against Cuellar reveal Strother was involved in high-level staffing and policy discussions with the congressman. ...

Despite Strother’s consulting work for numerous Democratic politicians in Texas, a number of Republican political figures were also involved in the founding of the Voter Education Foundation he directs.

Yes that Colin Strother whose Twitter account @ColinStrother is now mysteriously absent.

Patrick Svitek on Twitter: "Better Jobs Together, ..." / Twitter

Better Jobs Together, the pro-Cuellar group that's been on TV for weeks in #TX28, is cutting from its current buy, per media-tracking sources

People involved in the group have not responded to requests for comment this afternoon

The buy was originally set to go through Jan. 29. It now ends today, per one of those sources #TX28

Then
Daily Kos Elections on Twitter: "@PatrickSvitek Among others, the group previously supported Kyrsten Sinema (vid link)" / Twitter
then
Patrick Svitek on Twitter: "@DKElections Yeah, it backs a number of Dem incumbents" / Twitter

Let's see:

• The FBI carries off several bags and bins and a computer -- lots of stuff that it wants to look through, it seems.
• An ad agency cancels pro-JC ads.
• A long-time JC campaigner goes into hiding.
• JC has a reputation for going on the brink of campaign finance laws.

Something big must be happening.

 

[lpetrich]

Justice Democrats on Twitter: "NEWS: @JCisnerosTX just got endorsed by @AOC. The momentum is growing in South Texas for progressive change.
Chip in a couple bucks or get involved to phonebank today:
(links)" / Twitter


The plot thickens.
Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "This has gotta be oil stuff right (link)" / Twitter
noting
FBI raid on House Democrat's home related to Azerbaijan probe, source says - ABC News

The FBI on Wednesday raided Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar's home and campaign office in Texas as part of a wide-ranging federal probe relating to the former Soviet state of Azerbaijan and several U.S. businessmen, a source familiar with the matter told ABC News.

A federal grand jury in Washington is investigating the matter, but it's unclear if Cuellar is a target of the grand jury's probe, ABC News was told.

...
Cuellar, who represents Texas' 28th Congressional District along the U.S.-Mexico border, has been in Congress since 2005. In recent years he has served as a co-chair of the Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus, and repeatedly met with Azerbaijan officials, including the ambassador of Azerbaijan, Elin Suleymanov.

So he has some Azerbaijan connection. That nation is a small ex-Soviet nation on the western shore of the Caspian Sea -- and a big oil producer.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "The Assembly of the Friends of Azerbaijan reportedly played a "special role" in getting Cuellar onto the Congressional Azerbaijani Caucus in 2013 (link)

The same year it was basically acting as a front organization for the SOCAL, the state-owned oil &gas company (pic link)" / Twitter
noting
Four congressmen join U.S. Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus

Azerbaijani Embassy in the U.S. told APA that Congressmen Pete Gallego (Texas), Pete Olson (Texas), Henry Cuellar (Texas) and Robert Aderholt (Alabama) joined the CAC. Thus the number of members has reached 56.

The Embassy also said that US-based Assembly of the Friends of Azerbaijan (AFAZ) played a special role in the involvement of these four congressmen in the CAC.

Why that much interest in Azerbaijan? There aren't a lot of prominent Azeri immigrants AFAIK, and Azeri oil would have to go overland to reach most of the rest of the world, like through Iran or Russia.

Very unlike a neighboring small country, Armenia. I remember a former professor at Cornell University, Yervant Terzian, who was an Armenian, and one of my favorite commentators, Ana Kasparian, is an Armenian. The Kardashian family of professional celebrities is also Armenian-descended.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "Doesn't look like Cuellar was on this SOCAL sponsored Congressional delegation to Baku (!), but some pretty interesting context here (link)" / Twitter
noting
Lawmakers who traveled to Azerbaijan urged action benefiting state oil company that funded trip • OpenSecrets

Several lawmakers caught up in an investigation of their participation in a lavish overseas trip introduced legislation that would benefit the alleged host of their spring 2013 junket – the state-owned Azerbaijani oil company. Additionally, these lawmakers — and others on the trip — have received tens of thousands of dollars in donations from a network of individuals with close ties to two nonprofit organizations to which the oil company allegedly funneled money to pay for the trip.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: "Apparently in 2013 he took the same route as his colleagues, funded by the non-profit that was ostensibly sponsoring that Spring delegation. As it happens, that route follows follows a pipeline bringing gas from Azerbaijan to European gas markets (links)" / Twitter
They are thinking about a natural-gas pipeline that would go from Azerbaijan through Turkey to Europe. This pipeline would have to travel through Armenia or Iran along the way, and that may take some tricky politics.

Kate Aronoff on Twitter: ""'Given San Antonio’s role as a rapidly growing city with an unlimited export potential, there is vast opportunity to strengthen South Texas’ relationship with Azerbaijan,' said Congressman Cuellar." (link)" / Twitter
noting
Azerbaijan Ambassador and Congressman Henry Cuellar visit UIW community | The Word Online

UIW = University of the Incarnate Word - a Catholic university in San Antonio, TX

 

[lpetrich]

Another JD candidate seems to be doing well.
Greg Casar on Twitter: "New @Lake_Research Poll: @GregCasar leads #TX35 primary by nearly 30 points.
Casar - 48%
Rodriguez - 20%
Viagrán - 14%" / Twitter

I checked on the performance of returning BNC/JD candidates. I found:

Candidate	District	Opponent	2018	2020	Change
Marie Newman	IL-03	Dan Lipinski	-2.2	+2.6	+4.8
Anthony Clark	IL-07	Danny Davis	-47.8	-47.2	+0.6
Cori Bush	MO-01	Lacy Clay	-19.8	+2.9	+22.7
Kara Eastman	NE-02	R - Don Bacon	-2.0	-4.6	-2.6
Adrienne Bell	TX-14	R - Randy Weber	-19.9	-23.2	-3.3

Numbers are percentage points. All the opponents were/are incumbents. There was something of a "Trump bump" in 2020 that likely deprived Kara Eastman of a victory.

Anthony Clark was far behind both times he ran against Danny Davis, but Cori Bush did an impressive come-from-behind performance, and Marie Newman won by doing only a little better.

Jessica Cisneros was -3.6 relative to Henry Cuellar back in 2020. So if she improved this year by as much as Marie Newman improved in 2020, she will win.

It's possible that the Democratic establishment will strike back as it did to Nina Turner and India Walton last year and to Bernie Sanders back in 2020, and even to some extent at JC herself, with Nancy Pelosi supporting HC. But this recent scandal may be too much for it.